Friday, July 2, 2010

Employment Situation


Released on 7/2/2010 8:30:00 AM For Jun, 2010

PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change431,000 -125,000 -200,000  to 0 -125,000 
Private Payrolls - M/M change41,000 105,000 50,000  to 200,000 83,000 
Unemployment Rate - Level9.7 %9.8 %9.6 % to 9.9 %9.5 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change0.3 %0.1 %0.1 % to 0.2 %-0.1 %
Av Workweek - All Employees34.2 hrs34.2 hrs34.2 hrs to 34.3 hrs34.1 hrs
Highlights
The jobs picture in June was quite mixed as temporary Census workers were laid off and private hiring was positive but moderate. Also, the unemployment rate continued to dip even as the workweek slipped. Overall payroll jobs in June fell back -125,000 after spiking a revised 433,000 in May and after a 313,000 jump in April. The June decrease was matched the market forecast for a 125,000 decline.

Looking beyond the temporary effects of Census hiring and firing, private nonfarm employment increased 83,000, following a 33,000 rise in May. The latest figure fell short of analysts' projection for a 105,000 advance in private payrolls.

There other signs of a slowing in the labor market. Growth in average hourly earnings eased to a 0.1 percent decline, following a 0.2 percent boost in May. The average workweek for all workers edged down to 34.1 hours compared to 34.2 hours in May. The market forecast was for 34.2 hours.

The good news at face value in the June report was that the unemployment rate to 9.5 percent in June from 9.7 percent in May. However, the decrease was due to a sharp drop in the labor force.

Overall, the June jobs reports points to a softening in the labor market. Private employment continues to grow, but at a more moderate pace. On the news, markets were uncertain of how to react as equity futures moved back and forth.

More detail coming. Please check back.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus numbers shown reflect a June 28 update. Last report, nonfarm payroll employment in May surged 431,000, following a 290,000 boost in April, and a 208,000 gain in March. The May boost was the largest since a 472,000 spike in March 2000. But according to the BLS, Census hiring added 411,000 temporary jobs to the payroll gain. Private nonfarm employment increased only 41,000, following a 218,000 boost in April. Average hourly earnings picked up with a 0.3 percent rise in May, following a 0.1 percent advance the month before. The average workweek for all workers edged up to 34.2 hours from 34.1 hours in April. The unemployment rate slipped to 9.7 percent from 9.9 percent in April. Some are already seeing Census layoffs turning the June payroll number negative. Once again, market focus will be on private payrolls to discount the Census effect. A disappointing ADP report on private payrolls released this Wednesday has analysts bumping their forecasts down.
Definition
The employment situation is a set of labor market indicators based on two separate surveys in this one report. Based on the Household Survey, the unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. Other key series come from the Establishment Survey (of business establishments). Nonfarm payroll employment counts the number of paid employees working part-time or full-time in the nation's business and government establishments. The average workweek reflects the number of hours worked in the nonfarm sector. Average hourly earnings reveal the basic hourly rate for major industries as indicated in nonfarm payrolls.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart] During the mature phase of an economic expansion, monthly payrolls gains of 150,000 or so are considered relatively healthy. In the early stages of recovery though, gains are expected to surpass 250,000 per month.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart] The civilian unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of economic activity. During a recession, many people leave the labor force entirely, so the jobless rate may not increase as much as expected. This means that the jobless rate may continue to increase in the early stages of recovery because more people are returning to the labor force as they believe they will be able to find work. The civilian unemployment rate tends towards greater stability than payroll employment on a monthly basis. It reveals the degree to which labor resources are utilized in the economy.
Data Source: Haver Analytics