Tuesday, June 30, 2015

投资人最看好的3大创业方向

在经历一轮疯狂、浮躁、喧嚣的调整后,迎来了后疯狂时代,眼下投资人究竟该投什么又一次成为了一个现实的问题。
医疗健康——投资界的常春藤
投资机会:
受人口老龄化、新医改政策的刺激等因素影响,医疗健康行业投资活跃度的逆市上涨显示出了这一抗周期性行业在经济下行期间的投资价值。
投资方向:
从细分领域来看,医疗器械和医疗健康连锁服务业是两个主要的方向。
投资分析:
进 口替代的大趋势正在主导整个医疗器械行业的投资价值。何为进口替代?启明创投合伙人胡旭波以机构早期的投资项目奥泰医疗为例,其投资初衷是希望中国团队能 做出一个顶级产品来打破进口垄断的局面。从2010年企业做出中国第一台超导5T的核磁共振,到开始被国内医院接受,并慢慢地促使产品质量差不多的GE、 西门子、飞利浦这些高端产品把价格降下来,胡旭波说这就是一个进口替代的过程。“进口替代是很大的一个趋势,目前很多行业尤其是高端医疗行业,90%是进 口,我相信这个数字会降到40%~50%,但前提是需要找到一个很强的团队来做出跟进口产品一样质量的产品。”
曾对医疗器械有过深入研究的奥博资本联合创始人王健认为未来这一细分市场在具体品类上也有颇多机会。“在医疗器械领域,比如涉及创伤修复方面的产品,国内企业已占据了国内大多数市场。但是像人工关节、脊柱这些产品还有很大的成长空间。”
此 外,医疗健康涉及的连锁性的服务企业也越来越多地进入投资人的视野。达晨创投总经理屠铮曾考察过肿瘤类、美容类、齿科类等专科医院,他发现一些对医生或是 昂贵的设备依赖比较低的医疗服务机构是个理想的投资标的。在他看来,这种容易复制且不需要太大投入的专业医院连锁未来催生的机会将更多。
TMT——互联网不只是一张网
投资机会:
高原资本执行董事姚亚平说,“未来互联网的投资机会不再是纯粹的互联网,纯粹的信息流,而是会越来越多地向每一个行业去延伸。”
投资方向:
如果要在TMT领域寻找其中的香饽饽,互联网及移动互联网必定首当其冲。
投资分析:
在 腾讯投资执行董事林海峰看来,互联网是一场革命,这个革命的力度可以跟电力革命相媲美。“当电产生以后成为巨头的不仅仅是GE这样的发电公司,它还催生了 一大批的行业。不管是做灯泡的,还是生产洗衣机、电视机等家用设备的公司。互联网也是同样的道理,它已覆盖人类每一个角落。”林海峰说。
不容置疑的是,在这一大前提下,以互联网的思维来寻找改变传统行业的投资思路几乎成为了业内共识。姚亚平把其看成是一个互联网领域的“存量市场”。所谓的“存量市场”指的是已经存在传统生意,但现在利用互联网的手段来提高交易效率,然后赚取利润。
姚亚平认为,这个“存量市场”是一门高速发展、高利润的生意,投资人越来越多的价值将是如何在被互联网改造的传统行业里寻找机会。他提到,机票、酒店是第一个被互联网改造的行业,接下来是通过团购改造的生活信息、生活服务业,之后是被互联网所改造的金融行业。
“每一个传统行业都会被互联网所改造,每一个被改造的都是互联网深入的一个机会。过去在‘增量市场’上谁跑得快谁就有优势。但在做‘存量市场’的投资里面,它是一个马拉松,谁能够最懂这个市场,谁能够建得起最深的壁垒谁就有价值。”
据他判断,以后互联网的创业价值在于是不是能用最快的时间建立起来比别人更深的壁垒,是不是有一个线下的“护城河”是BAT这几家做不了的。
节能环保——霾经济背后的技术支撑

投资机会:
PM2.5的频频爆表带来的商机不仅仅只是几只空气净化器那么简单。严重雾霾天所导致的环保政策的倾斜正在为VC/PE行业带来更多的投资机会。
投资方向:
虽然这个领域聚焦的细分投资机会每年的变化并不大,比如土壤修复、水治理、垃圾处理、新能源等等,但在这背后投资人看中的技术主线已愈发清晰。
投资分析:
凯旋创投创始人周志雄直言在这个领域,技术是一个关键的因素。他发现,国内企业对于技术有很大的需求,这其中一个讨巧的做法即是引进国外的先进技术。
他进一步解释道,海外的一些技术发展到一定阶段也面临挑战,比如像美国的一些技术制造成本太高,而这些技术在美国的用途没有像中国那么有需求。如果把它们引入中国来、,尤其是跟清洁及环境有关的技术,当中国的市场适合这种技术时就能在开拓市场时占得先机。
对于IDG资本合伙人俞信华来讲,他也相当看好技术的门槛。“我们更愿意投有壁垒的企业,就是说企业真的有技术,如果企业是做工程服务的,往往会受政策影响较大。而企业只有真正掌握核心的技术、关键的产品,才能保持持续的增长。”
同 样的,国经基金副总经理邱翼每年也会接触上百项新的技术,从中选择心仪的投资标的。但他提醒到,现阶段这个技术在国内是不是适用是一个需要考虑的重点。 “首先要评估它的经济技术的合理性,就是说技术可能很好,但是在现阶段可能不太适用。”他举例说,污水处理的水价如果是1元左右,但通过技术价格却要提升 到了10元,那么企业的技术可能在现阶段就不适用了。一旦技术超前与市场承受能力脱轨,那就并非一个理想的投资项目。

What’s the Timetable to a Grexit?

2:01 pm EST Jun 30, 2015




  • We are in the climax of Greece’s debt crisis. It has been a slow-burn crisis, a five-year-long string of high-drama confrontations amid tedious talks. These next three weeks are crucial. The endgame is July 20, when Greece must repay a bond to the European Central Bank.
    Barring a last-minute U-turn by Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to accept the economic policies that Greece’s creditors are demanding as the condition of further bailout loans, here is how that endgame would look.
    • What happens today, June 30?

      The bailout program officially expires and a payment of €1.55 billion ($1.73 billion) to the IMF falls due.
    • Does that matter?

      Barring a magical rabbit springing from a hat, Greece will miss the IMF payment. The IMF will be mad, but the missed payment has few practical consequences. The eurozone bailout fund has the option of declaring Greece’s rescue loans in default and demanding accelerated repayment, but that would be a nuclear option it likely wouldn’t exercise—at least not right away. The bailout fund is controlled by eurozone finance ministers.
    • What about the bailout program expiry?

      Here’s where it gets tricky. Expiry could change the European Central Bank’s view on its emergency lifeline to Greek banks. The banks are Greece’s biggest vulnerability.
    • How so?

      Greek banks have relied for months on emergency lending from the central bank. They have scant cash and few assets they can quickly sell, so when a depositor asks for a withdrawal, they must borrow from the central bank to be able to give the depositor cash.
      Greeks have made €35 billion in withdrawals this year through May, the most recent available data. Non-Greek banks have pulled nearly another €30 billion of loans. The Greek banks have less than €2 billion in cash.
      On Sunday, the ECB froze the emergency lifeline at around €89 billion. Unable to get more cash to give to depositors, banks shut Monday. To reopen the banks, that lifeline needs to be turned back on.
    • Will it?

      It is difficult to imagine the ECB increasing the lifeline without the Greek government and the European creditors agreeing to a deal.
      The ECB is right now taking a middle course. Since banks need more money every day to cope with withdrawals, freezing the lifeline shuts the banks but doesn’t kill them. The lifeline comes in the form of loans to the banks that are regularly renewed; in effect, the ECB is saying you can’t have any more loans but we’ll keep renewing the ones you have.
      The tougher course would be to end the lifeline entirely and demand that the loans be repaid when they come due.
    • Why might the lifeline end?

      The lifeline, called Emergency Liquidity Assistance, or ELA, is highly flexible. The rules say that the banks receiving it must be “solvent,” but otherwise the ECB has broad latitude. The ECB also doesn’t lend for free—it has required the Greek banks to post assets as collateral to get ELA.
      So two things could kill the lifeline: Insolvency of the banks, or a determination that the collateral they are posting isn’t adequate. Let’s take them one at a time.
      By the books, the Greek banks are solvent. They have assets, primarily in the form of loans, that exceed their liabilities, primarily deposits and central-bank lending.
      That, of course, could change—perhaps many of their loans need to be written off or reduced in value. Perhaps the deferred tax assets (basically, promises that they’ll get tax refunds or credits in the future from the Greek government) they hold aren’t worth as much as they imagined.
      The banks don’t have heavy holdings of Greek government debt: €13.8 billion out of a total assets of nearly €400 billion—even if that debt went to zero the banks would probably remain solvent.
      Collateral is another matter. The ELA is secured by a hodgepodge of collateral: some of the banks’ loans, some covered bonds, a little bit of government debt. For the four big banks, though, a special kind of government-guaranteed bond makes up a large chunk of the collateral.
      That means to keep ELA going, the ECB must primarily assess whether the government’s guarantee is solid enough to make the collateral adequate. It’s a judgment call.
    • So would bailout expiry end the lifeline?

      Probably not, especially when there is a referendum scheduled in five days. The ECB is loath to be seen as interfering in politics. The formal end of the bailout program doesn’t directly affect the banks’ solvency. Some on the ECB’s board might argue that it hurts the government’s guarantee and thus the adequacy of the special bonds. But the ECB could credibly keep the lifeline frozen at least through the referendum.
    • How much longer?

      July 20. That day, €3.5 billion in Greek-government bonds held by the central bank fall due. If Greece doesn’t pay, the ECB would be hard-pressed to keep ELA alive. An actual payment failure makes the judgment call about the government’s guarantee much clearer.
    • What happens if ELA is ended outright?

      The banks collapse as soon as the ELA loans come due. The banks cannot repay them. So the collateral they posted would be seized. They posted more than a euro in collateral for each euro in lending, and thus they collapse.
    • When would the famous “Grexit” come?

      Right around then. It could be as soon as July 21, if the loans granted under ELA are overnight loans (the exact maturity isn’t known). If the banks have collapsed and there is no central-bank support, the government would have to create a new currency to restart the financial system and make payments.
    • Can it be avoided?

      Yes, but time is excruciatingly short. The referendum is July 5. If there is a “Yes” vote, Mr. Tsipras has hinted he would resign. A new government would need to be formed, a deal signed, legislation passed and money disbursed from the creditors in time to make the July 20 payment.
      If there is a “No” vote, Mr. Tsipras would presumably try to negotiate a better deal on the back of the popular support. And again, a deal would have to be reached, legislation passed and money disbursed by July 20.
    • Could the ECB forestall Grexit at the last minute?

      If it wanted to be really, really, really nice it could come up with a way to overlook a missed July 20 payment. Perhaps it could invoke a grace period. And Standard & Poor’s, the rating firm, has said a default on the ECB-held bonds would not be enough to place the Greek government in default. (S&P says its ratings reflect a borrower’s repayment of commercial creditors only.) Perhaps that’s enough cover for the ECB to say the government’s guarantee is still good.
      But these are Hail Mary passes highly likely to be swatted down by the ECB’s board.

    Monday, June 29, 2015

    Is This the Beginning of the End for Chinese Stocks? Here's What 11 Top Analysts Have to Say

    Is This the Beginning of the End for Chinese Stocks? Here's What 11 Top Analysts Have to Say

    Is this just a blip or is this the real deal?
    Shanghai Enters Bear Market
    As China enters a bear market, it's become the No. 1 question on everyone's mind: Is this just a dip, like when equities fell 17 percent in mid-2007 before skyrocketing to an all-time high, or the start of something a lot worse, like the selloff that would begin just three months later and wipe 72 percent off the value of the nation's stocks?

    After rallying more than 150 percent in the year through June 12, it took just five trading days for the Shanghai Composite Index to enter a correction, and five more for the bear market to form. With the central bank cutting lending rates and lowering reserve ratios on Saturday in an effort to revive investor confidence, where do we go now? Here's what 11 of the top analysts and investors in the industry have to say:
    Wilmington Trust:
    ``A shares will continue to fall, on the basis of sharply negative speculative sentiment, as well as on the Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission's actions to control margin lending,'' Clem Miller, an investment strategist at Wilmington Trust, which manages $20 billion, said by e-mail June 29. ``The Shanghai Composite reached its current heights over the last few months based on leveraged speculation involving many uninformed retail investors. I expect the composite to fall by about another 20 percent.''
    Janney Capital Management:
    ``Chinese equities should do pretty well going forward,'' Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist in Philadelphia at Janney Capital Management, which oversees about $68 billion, said by phone June 29. ``I don’t know at what level this correction may ultimately stop, but I think with the underwriting of the Chinese economy by the People’s Bank of China, Chinese officials don’t want to see the market nose down. They’ll do what it takes to push the market higher, and undoubtedly Chinese equities, post the correction, will work their way higher again.''
    Marketfield Asset Management:
    Mainland A shares could fall as much as 18 percent before bottoming, Michael Shaoul, Marketfield's chief executive officer, said in a June 29 report.
    ``Regarding the equity market itself the speculative rush into stocks would appear to have run its course, leading to a messy unwind,'' Shaoul said. ``We continue to find the offshore H share market to be a much more reasonable way to play a recovery of the Chinese economy.''     
    China International Capital Corp.:
    ``We see limited room for further correction in the short term. The market worried about the position closing pressure of margin holdings and the negative impact on market sentiment, but the interest rate cut and targeted reserve requirement ratio cut in the weekend sent out a signal of continuous loosening and removed the worries on possible marginal changes in policies, which could stabilize the market,'' CICC analysts led by Hanfeng Wang said in a June 29 report. ``Flexible money could start to position for a likely rebound.''
    HSBC Holdings Plc:
    ``Policy support could prevent further sharp market falls; yet investors will likely sell into the rebound to lower leverage,'' Steven Sun, the head of Hong Kong and China equity research at HSBC, wrote in a June 28 note. ``We also think it would be premature to call an end to the policy-driven A-share rally, given the importance of the stock market in helping China’s state owned enterprises and key industries obtain much-needed financing, as well as the likelihood of more monetary easing.''
    Bocom International Holdings Co.:
    ‘‘Large cap blue chips are still cheap, and their low valuation can be a good defense in the current market turmoil,'' Hao Hong, Bocom’s China equity strategist, wrote in a note on June 29. ``Our concerns are that the burst of the ChiNext bubble can create contagion onto other market segments, and the recovery of large cap blue chips will inevitably consume market liquidity bounded by a topping market cap/GDP ratio.''
    Bank of America Corp.:
    Rate cuts will ‘‘temporarily halt a possible crash in the market - had the government not acted, a stampede might soon develop as margin calls force leveraged positions to unwind,'' Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategists led by David Cui write in a June 28 note. ‘‘Short term bounce aside, we doubt that the latest cuts will trigger any sustained rally. There is still a small chance in our view that the bottom of the market may fall out in the coming weeks if enough investors conclude that the bull market is over - leverage is expensive so needs a consistently higher market to break even.’’
    Central China Securities:
    ‘‘Panic selling will likely continue as margin investors are forced into liquidation and funds are forced into redemption after earlier heavy sell-offs,’’ Central China Securities strategist Zhang Gang said by phone June 29. ‘‘People are worried about further unwinding of margin positions.''
    ‘‘One single policy change isn’t going to reverse the market trend,’’ Zhang said. ‘‘And if the market continues with deeper falls, we will likely see more supportive policies’’
    Invesco Ltd.:
    ‘‘It seems like policy makers are more worried about the stock market than about the real economy,’’ Paul Chan, chief investment officer for Asia ex-Japan at Invesco in Hong Kong, said June 29. ‘‘The economy is slowing down and they are so much behind the curve in terms of easing. But as the stock market corrected, they jumped in, putting in all the policies. It gives people a sense of panic.’’
    Krane Fund Advisors:
    ``Ultimately if we could have a more pragmatic and incremental IPO schedule as well as the cutting back on the use of leverage, it is good for the stock market in the long run,'' Brendan Ahern, chief investment officer at Krane Fund Advisors, said by phone June 29. ``Why you want to invest in this market is the continued reforms of state-owned enterprises as well as that onshore equities will be included in the broader benchmark over time. The rationale for investment is still in place. We’re just working through some short-term issues.''
    Marathon Asset Management:
    ‘‘There could be a substantial correction with China because it’s had a huge run-up,’’ Bruce Richards, co-founder of the hedge fund firm Marathon Asset Management said in an interview on the television program ‘‘Wall Street Week’’ that aired Sunday. ‘‘But in the long run, you have to figure out how you want to invest in China. There’s been lots of money to be made in U.S. equity markets over the last many decades -- the same exists in China.’’
    --With assistance from Amanda Wang and Allen Wan in Shanghai and Kyoungwha Kim in Hong Kong. 

    China's $370 Billion Margin Call

    China's stock markets tumbled on Friday to near bear territory further deepening the sell-off that started two weeks ago. The Shanghai Composite, down 7.4% on the day, has fallen 19% from its June 12 high wiping out $1.25 trillion in market cap. The smaller Shenzhen and ChiNet indices also have plunged 20% from their recent peak.
    (click to enlarge)

    Margin Lending Blessed by Beijing

    Even with recent declines, the Shanghai Composite Index has surged nearly 30% year-to-date. Authorities have allowed local investors to borrow tons of money from brokers to speculate in the stock market (i.e., Margin Lending), while the central bank PBOC has cut interest rates three times since November. Beijing also introduced new easing measures in the past couple of days: a proposal to remove a cap on banks' loan-to-deposit ratio and injecting cash into the financial system.

    Margin Debt Soared to $370 Billion

    Investors have poured into the market, opening 33 million new brokerage accounts between the start of January and the end of May. According to Macquarie Research, Chinese margin debt has risen 123% year-to-date, reaching a new record of 2.3 trillion yuan ($370 billion) on June 18.
    Margin debt in China has reached 8.5% of the value of China's tradable shares (For comparison purpose, that ratio was only at 4.6% during the peak of the Taiwan Stock Market Bubble back in the late 80's).
    (click to enlarge)
    (click to enlarge)

    Margin Debt Could Get Even Worse

    It gets even better from there. Macquarie believed that the brokers should have enough capital available to push margin lending higher from here as reported by Bloomberg:
    "We think that the peak should be somewhere around RMB 3 trillion and at the current run rate (i.e. +16% month-on-month) the market would reach that level around September."

    Analysts Cutting Price Target

    Investors have started to pull out of the market on concerns the government could be looking to rein in this debt-fueled rally. Meanwhile, more and more analysts are also sounding louder alarms about the over-heated China market. For example, citing concerns like valuations and high margin debt, Morgan Stanley just lowered its price target for the Shanghai benchmark in a report Thursday.

    Plunge Leaves State Media Speechless

    The usually quick-tongued state media like Xinhua are staying unusually quiet not giving out clues about the government's view on the current market sell-off.
    Reuters quoted Zhang Xiaojun, a spokesman for the China Securities Regulatory Commission on Friday:
    "It's a self-adjustment of the market after earlier excessive gains... Recently, there has been more volatility in the stock market. That requires all sides to treat it rationally."
    Chinese authorities are already trying to discourage speculative bets on the highest-flying stocks. So these rare public comments from the Regulatory Commission seem to suggest authorities are 'comfortable' with the declines.

    $370 Billion in Margin Trades

    A stock market collapse would be devastating to China with slowing economy and during a difficult transition from a manufacturing-based economy to private-business-and-consumer-supported.
    People are already freaking out that Greece is just days away from defaultingon a $1.72 billion loan payment. Just wait for the margin call on the $370 billion margin debt in China's stock markets should Beijing decide to take a page from Saudi Arabia's oil book.

    Wednesday, June 17, 2015

    Here's What the Smartest People on Wall Street Are Saying About Greece

    Here's What the Smartest People on Wall Street Are Saying About Greece

    Buffett, Fink, and Dimon weigh in
    Acropolis Hill
    A Greek national flag flies from a flagpole above tourists visiting Acropolis hill in Athens.
    Photographer: Yorgos Karahalis/Bloomberg
    With all the drama in the euro zone, there's been no shortage of  Greece-related questions for Wall Street's luminaries.
    Below is a roundup of what big investors and banking luminaries have been saying. The takeaway: Wall Street seems pretty sanguine when it comes to Greece—perhaps surprisingly so.
    Warren Buffett
    Berkshire Hathaway Chief Executive Officer Buffett.
    Jeff Kowalsky/Bloomberg
    Here's Warren Buffett, billionaire investor, speaking in March:
    If it turns out the Greeks leave, that may not be a bad thing for the euro. ... If everybody learns that the rules mean something and if they come to general agreement about fiscal policy among members, or something of the sort—that they mean business—that could be a good thing.
    —Interview with CNBC
    BlackRock Inc. Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink Speaking At Credit Suisse Global Megatrends Conference 2015
    Fink, CEO of BlackRock, speaks during the Credit Suisse Global Megatrends Conference 2015 in Singapore.
    Sam Kang Li/Bloomberg
    Larry Fink, chief executive of BlackRock, spoke with a Dutch newspaper last month and said:
    A Greek departure from the euro is far less disastrous than making concessions that can also be claimed in other countries.
    —Interview with Het Financieele Dagblad
    Jamie Dimon
    JPMorgan Chase CEO Dimon.
    Tim Boyle/Bloomberg
    Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, wrote in his letter to shareholders in April that:
    We must be prepared for a potential exit. ... We continually stress test our company for possible repercussions resulting from such an event. ... After the initial turmoil, it is possible that a Greek exit would prompt greater structural reform efforts by countries that remain.
    —Letter to shareholders
    Axel Weber, president of the Deutsche Bundesbank
    Weber, president of the Deutsche Bundesbank.
    Hannelore Foerster/Bloomberg
    Axel Weber, chairman of the Swiss bank UBS, said in April that:
    I've just come from a meeting of the International Monetary Fund. There, the consensus is increasingly that a Greek default would be systemically controllable.
    —Interview with Neue Zuercher Zeitung
    Charles Munger, vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
    Munger, vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway.
    Daniel Acker/Bloomberg
    Charles Munger, vice chairman at Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, said in May that:
    [The] euro had a noble motivation and has done some good but has created strains by connecting countries that shouldn't be. You shouldn't create a partnership with your drunken, shiftless brother in law.
    —Berkshire Hathaway's annual shareholder meeting
    Duquesne Family Office Chairman Stan Druckenmiller
    Druckenmiller, chairman and chief investment officer of Duquesne Family Office, speaks during a television interview at the Robin Hood Investors Conference in New York, on Nov. 22, 2013.
    Peter Foley/Bloomberg
    Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller told Bloomberg TV in April that:
    The banks don't own Greek debt any more; Draghi has QE at his disposal. My guess is there won't be contagion. But even if there is, he can contain it—and as soon as market participants see that, you won't get contagion.
    —Bloomberg TV
    According to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey released on Tuesday, many investors are not anticipating a negative outcome in the euro zone.
    Some 43 percent of respondents said they expect a "positive" resolution. About 42 percent said Greece will default but is unlikely to exit the monetary unit and only 15 percent said they expected a so-called 'Grexit.'

    Tuesday, June 16, 2015

    两日股指暴跌近300点 中国股市遭遇血腥斩杀(组图)

    两日股指暴跌近300点 中国股市遭遇血腥斩杀(组图)

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    中国沪指6月16日暴跌3.47%,连破5000点和4900点大关。中国A股就像在小潭水里扑腾的鲸鱼,多久会被引入全球市场的大海?一个股市在纳入MSCI新兴市场指数的准备期会获得上涨助力,但对A股来说可能助长泡沫。

    综合媒体6月16日报道,中国沪指6月16日暴跌3.47%,连破5000点和4900点大关。本周开始A股两日暴跌289点,重回“4”时代。从行业板 块看,所有行业板块均出现不同程度下跌,其中航空、船舶和电脑设备等行业板块跌幅居前,银行和非银金融行业板块跌幅较小,分别下跌了1.22%和 1.27%,是仅有的两个跌幅未超过2%的行业板块。

    中国A股是目前世界上交易量最大的股票市场,但它与世界其他地区股市的走势毫无关联。它就像一头鲸鱼,在一小潭水里扑腾。

    现在所有人都承认这种情况持续不了太久。上周一个主要话题就是,这条“中国鲸鱼”将如何以及多快被引入全球市场的大海?但这需要中国政府和投资者双方都彻底改变行为。

    双方都很紧张,担心这条中国鲸鱼会排走大量的水——这种不安情有可原。还有,为了打开一条新的让境外资本进入的大通道,中国政府将不得不放宽对国内市场的管制。除了少数例外,A股仍然只有中国国内投资者可以投资。

    A股问题也凸显了指数公司如今所起的主导性作用。它们不再扮演被动角色,而是不可避免地成了活跃的玩家,影响着数万亿美元资金的走向。

    上周,国际市场上最大的指数公司MSCI明晟公布了对其新兴市场指数成员资格的年度评估结果。以该指数为基准的基金总共管理着1.7万亿美元资产。实际上 不仅是指数型基金,任何名义上的主动型基金,只要是使用MSCI新兴市场指数作为基准的,都被迫依据MSCI明晟公司的评估结果调整资产配置。通过在香港 上市的股票,中国在MSCI新兴市场指数中占25%,如果A股被纳入,中国所占权重将提高到45%以上。

    MSCI明晟就是否将A股纳入该指数征询了意见,计划只按其总体市值的5%给予权重,结果各方反应激烈。

    显而易见,A股市场不但规模够大,流动性也够充足,问题在于境外投资者进入这个市场的难易程度。过去一年中,中国推出了一系列市场开放措施。“港沪通”使 境外投资者更容易买卖上海市场上的股票,资本利得税规则得到了明晰,“合格境外机构投资者”(QFII)扩大了投资额度。中国希望被纳入MSCI新兴市场 指数,这将带来新的国际资本进入中国。

    但是很多人游说反对。基金经理们抱怨,如果一个基准里包含不允许他们购买的股票,那么用这一基准来评判他们就是不公平的。此外,过去一年中国传出了一些令人担忧的消息。进口持续下降,进口的大宗商品价格大幅下降,而A股却在飞涨。

    除了受投机资金推动,很难解释A股的这种涨势。而这意味着将A股纳入MSCI新兴市场指数可能会进一步助长泡沫,而对于许多由于其基本面不佳而避开中国市场的投资者而言,用一个包含A股的指数去评判他们势必会令他们为难。

    因此MSCI明晟做出折衷。中国需要做出更多改革。MSCI成立了一个工作小组,与中国监管部门共同研究怎样改革——中国的监管部门显然也希望完成改革。A股将有望于2017年5月加入MSCI新兴市场指数。

    与此同时,另一个大型国际指数公司富时指数(FTSE)公布了一项关于A股的计划。这两大指数公司都同意必须尽快纳入中国市场,但目前中国还没准备好。为 此富时集团将设立一个包含A股的影子指数,其权重与外国投资者可通过配额制度持有A股的数量挂钩。这令基金得以避免置身中国内地市场之外的尴尬。基金公司 中最大的指数提供商先锋(Vanguard)将提供追踪该影子指数的基金。

    要了解指数公司怎么会吸引这么多关注,不妨回顾一年前的事情。当时阿联酋加入了MSCI新兴市场指数,事前经过了为期两年的咨询期。

    在截至2012年5月的两年时间里,阿联酋股市波动幅度不大,与MSCI新兴市场指数一样。在随后的两年中,由于基金已准备好阿联酋股市加入该指数,阿联酋股市上涨了234%,同期新兴市场变动不大。等到最终加入该指数,阿联酋股市在半年内重挫了40%左右。

    精明的投资者可能开始要涉足巴基斯坦股市了,因为MSCI正在审核该市场,可能在2017年将其纳入MSCI新兴市场指数。还有沙特阿拉伯股市,它在多年 前就应进入MSCI新兴市场指数,但由于其对外国投资的严格限制而一直被排除在外。鉴于这两个国家在西方投资者眼中往往承受污名,它们很可能在获得 MSCI新兴市场指数成员资格后大涨。

    除了抓住上述机会,投资者也有必要重新审视自己看待新兴市场的角度。30年前世界银行(World Bank)想给“第三世界”换个名称时创造了这一词汇,如今已经用处不大了。中国已经成长为一头巨鲸,将资金配置在“新兴市场”何异于配置在中国。可以预期“除中国外的亚洲指数”、“全A股指数”或“除中国外的新兴市场指数”会引起兴趣。
    我们还应反思指数公司所被赋予的权力。就像指数公司之前的评级机构,投资者赋予指数公司的权力如今已经超过了其设计初衷——在信贷危机爆发前的几年里,评 估信用质量的任务被外包给了评级公司,结果带来了毁灭性的后果。关于指数的这一技术问题数周来主导着市场,仅仅这一事实已令人不安。这不是指数提供商本身 的错,但它们的权力看上去很危险。