Thursday, April 30, 2015

Crude oil futures trim gains as U.S. dollar regains ground

Crude oil futures trim gains as U.S. dollar regains ground

CommoditiesApr 30, 2015 01:53PM GMT Add a Comment
© Reuters.  Oil futures pare gains as U.S. dollar firms © Reuters. Oil futures pare gains as U.S. dollar firms - Crude oil futures gave up most of their overnight gains on Thursday, as the U.S. dollar firmed after earlier losses following the release of upbeat U.S. jobless claims data.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for June delivery hit an intraday peak of $59.38 a barrel, the most since December 12, before trading at $58.69 during U.S. morning hours, up 11 cents, or 0.19%.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up 0.15% to trade at 95.45, after hitting an overnight low of 94.48, the weakest level since February 26.

The U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits fell by 34,000 last week to 262,000 from the previous week’s total of 296,000. Analysts had expected initial jobless claims to fall by 6,000 to 290,000 last week.

A separate report showed that manufacturing activity in the Chicago-area grew more than expected in April, following two consecutive months of contractions.

The upbeat data eased concerns over the strength of the economy and fuelled speculation that the Federal Reserve could bring forward its timetable for a U.S. rate hike.

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates on hold on Wednesday and offered little hints on the timing of its first rate hike in nearly a decade.

In its monthly policy statement on Wednesday, the Fed said it will take into account labor market conditions, inflationary pressures and expectations of international financial developments when it decides on the timing of a rate increase.

The central bank removed all calendar references on a potential window for raising rates from its statement, adding to uncertainty over the timing of a Fed rate hike.

The statement came after data on Wednesday showed that the U.S. economy grew just 0.2% in the three months to March, slowing sharply from 2.2% in the final quarter of 2014. It was the slowest rate of growth in a year.

A recent run of disappointing U.S. economic data dampened optimism over the recovery, fuelling speculation the Fed could delay hiking interest rates until late 2015, instead of tightening midyear.

A day earlier, Nymex oil prices rallied $1.52, or 2.66%, to end at $58.58 as concerns over a supply glut eased following the first crude stock draw in almost six months at the Cushing, Oklahoma, hub last week.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said Wednesday that crude oil inventories rose by 1.9 million barrels last week, below expectations for an increase of 2.3 million barrels.

Supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, the key delivery point for Nymex crude, fell for the first time in almost six months, dropping by 500,000 barrels to 61.7 million.

Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 490.9 million barrels as of last week, the most in at least 80 years, even as drilling activity fell.

U.S. oil futures are up almost 20% in April due to mounting expectations that U.S. shale oil production has peaked and may start falling in the coming months amid an ongoing collapse in rigs drilling for oil.

According to industry research group Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI), the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. fell by 31 last week to 703, the lowest since October 2010. It was the 20th straight week of declines.

Market players have been paying close attention to the shrinking rig count in recent months for signs it will eventually reduce the glut of crude flowing into the market.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for June delivery shed 3 cents, or 0.04%, to trade at $65.81 a barrel. On Wednesday, London-traded Brent futures rose to $66.72, the highest level since December 10, before closing at $65.84.

Brent futures are up more than 17% so far in April as some investors bet that a bottom had been reached after a nine-month long rout. But prices are still down approximately 43% since June, when futures climbed near $116.

Meanwhile, the spread between the Brent and the WTI crude contracts stood at $7.12 a barrel, compared to $7.26 by close of trade on Wednesday.

Tuesday, April 28, 2015

Pakistan ETF Opens Market to Individual Investors

Pakistan ETF Opens Market to Individual Investors

Traders at the Karachi Stock Exchange.
European Pressphoto Agency
China’s launch on Monday of a massive infrastructure-spending plan in Pakistan has brought considerable attention to the South Asian frontier market. Chinese President Xi Jinping announced and launched a $28 billion package of infrastructure deals that will form part of the so-called China Pakistan Economic Corridor.
Last weekend, Pakistan’s Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal said the total Chinese investment into Pakistan would reach $46 billion.
Much of the spending will focus on power and transportation and is expected to boost Pakistan’s already-burgeoning economy. The announcement is also helping the country’s stock market to recover from a slump that saw the MSCI Pakistan index fall by more than a fifth in dollar terms over the two months to the end of March.
China’s colossal investment plan is not the only potentially market-moving news for Pakistan this week. Investment Bank Renaissance Capital yesterday described the country as an “undervalued reform story”, noting that the government is living up to its privatization promises—including its recent record-breaking sale of its stake in private sector banking giant HBL—and delivering reforms that should enhance stock valuations.
Against this backdrop, the timing of the launch of the first Pakistan-focused exchange-traded fund in the U.S. is remarkably fortuitous. U.S.-based ETF provider Global-X is launching the ETF tomorrow on the New York Stock Exchange.
The fund joins a growing list of single-country frontier-market ETFs, including Global-X’s Argentina and Nigeria funds, as well as Market Vectors’ Vietnam fund. Jay Jacobs, research analyst at Global X Funds, says: “With the launch of the … Pakistan ETF, investors now have access to one of the largest, most liquid frontier-market countries.”
Write to Dan Keeler at
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Investing in Pakistan? There’s an ETF for That - PAK

Investing in Pakistan? There’s an ETF for That

April 23rd, 2015 at 1:00pm by Todd Shriber
Business is booming for single-country exchange traded funds. There are now over 200 such ETFs trading in the U.S. with over $100 billion in combined assets under management. Add the Global X MSCI Pakistan ETF (NYSEArca: PAK) to the list.
PAK, the first dedicated U.S.-listed Pakistan ETF, has been a long time coming. New York-based Global X, an issuer that is no stranger to exotic single-country offerings, filed plans for a Pakistan ETF more than five years ago. [Global X Explores new ETF Frontiers]
Pakistan, ranked the world’s 44th-largest economy by nominal GDP last year by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), is classified as a frontier market. Prior to the debut of PAK, the iShares MSCI Frontier 100 ETF (NYSEArca: FM) was the ETF with the largest Pakistan exposure. Pakistan is FM’s fourth-largest country weight at 10.4%. [Pakistan set to be a Bigger Part of This ETF]
Pakistan was demoted to frontier status in 2009 after its equity market was closed to sellers for over 100 days during the 2008 global financial crisis, according to news reports. However, Pakistan’s benchmark Karachi Stock Exchange 100 Index has since been one of the best-performing equity benchmarks in the world.
The index currently trades around 33,456, up from just under 29,000 on March 30. Up nearly 23% over the past year, the KSE 100, has roughly tripled since the fourth quarter of 2011. In 2013, Pakistan was home to the world’s fifth-best equity market with a gain of nearly 50%.
PAK tracks the MSCI Pakistan Index and is home to 31 stocks. Like many ETFs that track frontier and smaller emerging markets, PAK is heavy on financials services stocks with that sector commanding nearly a third of the new fund’s weight. Pakistan’s status as a major producer of fossil fuels and other natural resources leads to a combined weight of 57.2% to the energy and materials sectors for PAK, according to Global X data.
Pakistan, the sixth-most populous country in the world, “has been identified by Goldman Sachs as one of the potentially large, fast growing markets that are expected be an important source of global economic growth and opportunity in the future,” according to Global X.
Frontier markets historically have low correlations to developed and emerging markets equities. PAK has the potential to continue that theme as Pakistani equities had a correlation of zero to the S&P 500 last year, according to Global X.
PAK is the fourth single-country frontier markets ETF to come to market. The others are the Mar, ket Vectors Vietnam ETF (NYSEArca: VNM), Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (NYSEArca: ARGT) and the Global X Nigeria Index ETF (NYSEArca: NGE).
PAK Top 10 Holdings and Sector Weights

Wednesday, April 22, 2015

The Bubble That Was Not A Bubble: Understanding SPY's Valuation


  • SPY appears to be very expensive when compared to the GDP.
  • When comparing the level of corporate profits to GDP, it appears that the U.S. market is generating very high levels of profits.
  • The crash at the start of the century displayed very weak earnings.
  • Extremely low yields on high-quality debt present two distortions to the market - enhancing earnings and reducing investment options.
  • The question going forward will be one of the sustainability of earnings. If earnings are sustainable at this level, the market is being fairly valued.
When considering the state of the economy, it is all too common to see a focus on all the wrong things. Investors know that the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) is considered a substitute for the market in most finance classes. Previously, I disproved the myth that SPY was the efficient frontier of the market. Despite those issues, it is still far better than most investors will come to creating a truly efficient portfolio.
What should an efficient portfolio look like? I'm still working on designing mine, but I've shared my current holdings. In May, I'll run another piece with the latest updates. My biggest area for addition has been international holdings through ETFs.

The landscape is changing

I read a piece recently that had me thinking about the future of the economy. Charles Sizemore, CFA pointed out the high valuation of the market relative to GDP. I've been reading a few of his ideas because it keeps me thinking about the market from a top-down perspective instead of a bottom-up perspective. As an analyst, it is common to build our expectations from projections for firms, rather than to start with the economy on a very broad level. In that article, he presents the following chart.
In the current economy, we are seeing TMC (Total Market Cap) to GDP (Gross Domestic Product) reaching very high levels. However, we are not seeing P/E ratios (on a broad level) hitting absurd valuations. The issue is that corporate profits are hitting levels that I would consider absurd. The following chart by the St. Louis Fed demonstrates that point. This chart was also brought to my attention courtesy of Mr. Sizemore's articles.
(click to enlarge)

The P/E theory

When we start questioning whether the market is hitting a "top" or if we are "in bubble territory", we would be wise to remember the history.
The P/E issue can be clearly seen in the bubble around the year 2000. The first chart shows that the valuations of the market relative to GDP were very high in 2000. The second chart shows that corporate profits after taxes were very low in 2000. I built the following chart using data from Since I haven't used the source before, I can't guarantee the accuracy of the data. The data provides the P/E ratio of the S&P 500 since about 1871. That isn't a typo. Here is my chart.
(click to enlarge)
The chart is confirming the idea that the P/E ratios around 2000 were at unprecedented levels. We witnessed higher P/E ratios during the latest crash, but I believe that was more of an abnormality with recognizing losses. The second chart showing the incredible reduction in earnings for the year that immediately bounced back supports my explanation. When the three charts are used together, a more complete picture is formed.

We are not repeating the same old mistakes; we are making new ones

The sharp difference between the current highs and the ones seen before the bubble burst at the start of the century is that this time, we are seeing enormous corporate profits that can be used to pay dividends, repurchase shares, or invest in new productive assets. Quite simply, the current market is worth more than the old market, because the companies are actually making money. There is a world of difference between an investor "making money" by having a stock go up and a company "making money" by producing an item of value and selling the item for a profit.
Courtesy of very low interest rates, we are seeing two distortions in the market. The first issue is that corporate earnings are higher than they would be under normal interest rate scenarios, because lower interest rates reduce the amount of interest that must be paid on any given amount of debt. The second issue is that investors seeking wealth do not have any option for high-quality debt offering respectable yields on holding until maturity. Sorry, the long-term rates on treasury yields are not attractive for investments unless the investment can be funded with short-term debt or as a play on the yield curve inverting and creating capital gains. However, I won't go off into the yield curve in this article. The simple case is that a lack of attractive debt investments is driving up the value of equity by enhancing earnings and limiting the options available to investors.

What if corporate profits are sustainable?

In my opinion, if corporate profits are not sustainable, then the market is overvalued. However, I believe there is a great opportunity for further research into the sustainability of corporate earnings over the next few decades. In future articles, I'll be diving into my views on some of the factors that will influence long-run earnings growth rates.

My positions

At the present time, I'm concerned about the valuations of the market as demonstrated by SPY; however, I have a fairly substantial long position in the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (NYSEARCA:VTI), which has about a 99% correlation with SPY. I'm also holding a position in the Fidelity Spartan® Total Market Index Fund (MUTF:FSTVX), which has about a 99.7% correlation to VTI. I'm not big on holding large amounts of cash, but I will use my expectations for future growth to determine which markets to invest in. Because of my concerns about the valuations on SPY, I'm choosing to increase the percentage of my portfolio in international assets. My most recent acquisition was the Vanguard Global ex-U.S. Real Estate ETF (NASDAQ:VNQI), which, I believe, should represent a small holding in my portfolios due to the diversification benefits. I wrote about VNQI before purchasing it.
Because I believe the current valuations have very little in common with the bubbles in 2000 and 2007, I'm not selling my shares in VTI. I am simply choosing to focus on adding to new investments in foreign markets at a faster rate than I'm adding to my investments in domestic markets.
Additional disclosure: Information in this article represents the opinion of the analyst. All statements are represented as opinions, rather than facts, and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell a security. Ratings of "outperform" and "underperform" reflect the analyst's estimation of a divergence between the market value for a security and the price that would be appropriate given the potential for risks and returns relative to other securities. The analyst does not know your particular objectives for returns or constraints upon investing. All investors are encouraged to do their own research before making any investment decision. Information is regularly obtained from Yahoo Finance, Google Finance, and SEC Database. If Yahoo, Google, or the SEC database contained faulty or old information, it could be incorporated into my analysis.

Friday, April 10, 2015

Vietnam ETF: Battered . . . And Compelling

April 7, 2015
Easy money leads to easy gains. At least that’s the conclusion drawn after witnessing worldwide monetary stimulus programs that have pushed 17 different stock markets to new all-time highs in this year’s first quarter. Yet for countries that are not swept up in the global frenzy of rate cuts, central bank bond buying and “beggar thy neighbor” currency moves, there have been fewer reasons for investors to cheer.
Take Vietnam, for example. The Market Vectors Vietnam ETF (VNM) has fallen more than 13 percent year-to-date and roughly 25 percent over the past 12 months. Yet the current underperformance should spell long-term opportunity.
The Vietnamese economy grew nearly eight percent annually in the 2000’s, thanks to a rapid pace of reforms. Yet progress has stalled in recent years, pushing the economic growth rate to around five percent, or below the rate of its Far East peers. As a result, Vietnamese stocks have largely missed out on the global bull market of the past five years.
Yet a pronounced shift in policy plans in 2015 should help give the economy—and Vietnamese stocks—a fresh boost.
A key catalyst will be a stepped up pace of privatizations, which has slowed to a crawl in recent quarters. “Over the next six to nine months, investors will get a lot more clarity about which companies will be brought public,” says Nikhil Bhatnagar, vice president for Asian equities at Auerbach Grayson. “That should relieve investor concerns about the government’s commitment to privatization.”
The government has identified more than 500 candidates for initial public offerings, according to Amrita Nandakumar, ETF product manager at Market Vectors. “Some of those companies, in fields such as pharmaceuticals, could help bring greater diversity to our Market Vectors fund,” she says. The move won’t happen right away because the Market Vectors fund, which carries a 0.76 percent expense ratio, rebalances quarterly after the underlying index gets re-jiggered.
The current index weighting, which focuses on Vietnamese-listed companies (or companies that derive more than 50 percent of their revenue in the country), reflects the fact that Vietnam still lacks a homegrown industrial base. Many of its major factories are owned by American, European, Japanese and Chinese companies.
As a result, it is heavily weighted toward financial stocks (42 percent), while consumer stocks make up another 28 percent. Vietnam has been aiming to more aggressively develop its oil and gas reserves, and the energy sector comprises another 16 percent of the fund.
Stepping Out Of The Shadows
Although Vietnam toils in the shadow of bigger economies in Asia, it’s unwise to think of it as an economic also-ran. The country has a population of roughly 90 million and a median age just below 30, which compares favorably versus the rapidly aging societies of China and Japan with median ages of 37 and 46, respectively.
To capitalize on those strengths, Vietnam needs to develop a thriving middle class. And that starts with a well-educated workforce. Notably, the Program for International Student Development ranks Vietnam 17th in the world in terms of 10th grade reading, science and math skills, ahead of countries such as Australia, Austria and France.
“The country’s demographics, education and location (near key shipping lanes) are why companies such as Samsung and Intel are announcing major investments in the country,” says Darshan Bhatt, co-founder of Glovista, an emerging markets-focused investment firm with $1.1 billion in assets under management. He adds that as labor costs in China and elsewhere rapidly rise, Vietnam is attracting a surge in foreign direct investment.
Geopolitics are also heightening Vietnam’s appeal. “The country is about to receive a lot of developmental capital from Japan, which sees Vietnam as a counterweight to an increasingly aggressive China,” says Auerbach Grayson’s Bhatnagar.
Market Vectors’ Nandakumar also thinks that an expected ratification of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which includes countries accounting for 40 percent of global gross domestic product, will serve as an economic catalyst. “It should provide a major export boost to Vietnam,” she says.
Still, a huge gap persists between Vietnam’s economic potential and its current global market status. “The market is very reasonably valued, but global investors are scared off by a lack of liquidity,” says Glovista’ s Bhatt. Yet he thinks the coming privatizations will be a panacea.

“The government’s move to open up many more sectors [to investment] is a clear positive––the liquidity picture is changing,” he says.
The fund’s valuation could be another positive for the fund. Nandakumar notes that the holdings in the Vietnam ETF are currently valued at 1.3 times book value, right near a five-year low and half the multiple sported by the Market Vectors Indonesia ETF (IDX).
Against that backdrop, the skies do appear bright for long-term investors. The Vietnamese economy is expected to grow more than 6 percent this year (the best showing since 2011), and the country’s privatization plans, rising domestic consumption and broadening trade agreements could help return the country to the leading edge of emerging-market economic growth.
For now, the Market Vectors Vietnam fund remains the only pure-play ETF for this economic up-and-comer.

Wednesday, April 8, 2015

P2P行业现状分析 互联网金融告别野蛮生长

P2P行业现状分析 互联网金融告别野蛮生长

 2015-01-16 11:03:56 责任编辑:何丹 来源:前瞻网 作者:何丹
最新行业动态,解密市场盈利点,把握行业竞争主动权 详细>>
   网络借贷行业市场分析 新常态或将加速行
好消息是人民银行正在牵头制定促进互联网金融健康发展的指导意见。2014年12月4日,央行副行长潘功胜在接管互联网金融业务之后首度发声,表示 目前鼓励互联网金融的创新发展是监管的基本基调,强调互联网金融发展要守住底线。种种迹象表明,我国互联网金融告别野蛮生长的时间将不会太远。
关键词: P2P行业 P2P
A.男 62.8%
B.女 37.2%
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Tuesday, April 7, 2015



2013年11月16日 15:53  新浪财经 微博 我有话说(2,843人参与)
新浪财经讯 11月16日消息,《中央关于全面深化改革若干重大问题的决定》(下称《决定》)昨日发布,决定中提出要推进股票发行注册制改革。以下是业界专家对此项改革可能对市场影响的解读汇总:
  注册制主要是指发行人申请发行股票时,必须依法将公开的各种资料完全准确地向证券监管机构申报。证券监管机构的职责是对申报文件的全面性、准确 性、真实性和及时性作形式审查,不对发行人的资质进行实质性审核和价值判断而将发行公司股票的良莠留给市场来决定。注册制的核心是只要证券发行人提供的材 料不存在虚假、误导或者遗漏,即使该证券没有任何投资价值,证券主管机关也无权干涉,因为自愿上当被认为是投资者不可剥夺的权利。这类发行制度的代表是美 国和日本。这种制度的市场化程度最高。
  武汉科技大学金融证券研究所所长董登新在微博表示,《中共中央关于全面深化改革若干重大问题的决定》为资本市场改革定调:健全多层次资本市场体 系,推进股票发行注册制改革,多渠道推动股权融资,发展并规范债券市场,提高直接融资比重。其中,最大亮点或重中之重就是IPO注册制的试点与推行,这将 引发A股市场革命性的深刻变化,值得投资者兴奋、期待!
  董登新还表示,A股市场IPO推行注册制,将具有划时代的历史意义:其一,证监会不再直接干预股市涨跌;其二,证监会不再干预IPO节奏,更无 权暂停IPO;其三,证监会监管重心将从IPO后移至二级市场,严厉打击违规者及证券犯罪行为;其四,投资者将会真正自觉地学会用脚投票。这是真正意义上 的还权于市场,还权于投资者。推行注册制,是新股发行体制改革接近尾声、最后阶段的临门一脚。这一脚、这一刻已无退路,别无选择。十八届三中全会已十分高 调、明确指出:要充分发挥市场的决定性作用。“去行政化”已成为当前中国股市最重大的改革任务,而一级市场IPO则是过度行政干预的重灾区,因此,推行 IPO注册制将是唯一选项。
  董登新最后称,注册制的推行,将会迎来A股市场“慢牛短熊”的新格局、新时代。美国股市是典型的“慢牛短熊”,它的牛市一般持续5——7年,而 熊市至多为1——2年;与此相反,中国一贯的“快牛慢熊”格局则是:牛市至多1——2年,熊市则长达5——7年。这就是中国股市与成熟市场的巨大反差。 IPO注册制将改写这一格局!
  李迅雷[微博]:IPO注册制将压低股价 短期难推行
  海通证券(26.99, 0.09, 0.33%)副 总裁、首席经济学家李迅雷对新浪财经表示,这次金融领域的一大看点就是股票发行注册制的改革,但从核准制到注册制的过渡有一定难度,明年推行可行性也不 大。他认为如实行股票发行注册制,上市公司发行规模将会扩大,发行价格将会降低,未来股市更加市场化,而中国股票市场表现不好很重要的一个原因是发行价格 过高。对券商而言整体利好,但是未来保荐风险将加大。对普通投资者而言这不是特别好的事情。
  据深圳商报报道,燕京大学校长、经济学家华生昨日接受记者采访时表示,推进股票发行注册制改革,提高直接融资比重等内容写进《决定》里,意味着 证券市场改革非常重大。中国证券市场成立20多年来,新股发行一直都是审批制、核准制。这次的改革提出从审批制、核准制转向注册制,应该说这个改革是非常 具有实质性的,等于要对新股发行审核制度进行根本改革,这个市场化方向改革是对的,市场起决定性的作用了。
  但什么是注册制?是不是什么企业注册了就可以上市?那恐怕也不行。这个注册制指的是什么?美国IPO也叫注册制,但和我国的工商注册是两回事。 华生说,不管怎么理解吧,目前来看这个新股发行制度改革力度是空前的。实际上过去还没有认真研究过,一下子就将股票发行注册制改革写进了《决定》里,这个 步子迈得非常大的,肯定股票市场直接融资方面,力度会是空前的。但是,希望在制度设计上,要有大智慧(30.80, 1.78, 6.13%),不然,对证券市场的冲击也将非常大。
  据华夏时报报道,中国政法大学资本研究中心主任刘纪鹏表示,需要强调的是,尽管一直提到新股发行的改革,但我并不太主张一步就从核准制过渡到注 册制。证监会未来有可能放松审批,可太快变成注册制也并不适合中国的市场。举个例子,美国实行注册制,因为它是有前提的:一是因为美国有强大的诉讼文化, 很多纳税人都有自己的律师;二是美国股市机构投资者居多,比较理性;三是它的事后惩罚很严格,公司一旦发生问题需要追索,保荐人有的要终身取消保荐资格 等。而这三点我们的市场直到今天还都未完全具备,所以监管层当下的改革重点,应该是监审分离,变实质性的核准为程序上的核准,然后把审核的权利下放到交易 所。此外,证监会在人员配置上,也应该把90%的力量着重放在监管上, 只留10%的力量用在审批上即可。用16个字来形容,就是“监审分离,下放发审,程序核准,保留否决”。
  新浪财经专栏作家,资深财经评论员官建益称,让市场起决定性作用,让投资者去识别真正的好公司,是全球通行的做法,我们的资本市场已经有23年 多的历史,投资者拥有鉴别能力。没有了赌重组的赌博心理,垃圾股将被多数人抛弃,价值投资、成长投资将逐步成为市场的主流。对于中小投资者,一定要看到中 央坚定不移发展资本市场的信心,自觉站到投资者的行列里来,千万不要在跌停板上卖不出去了,才想起不应该投资垃圾股。虽然短期可能造成市场一定的重心下移 (当然,处理得好也可以用积极的因素化解消极的因素),但是从中长期看,这项根本制度的确立,将引导我们的资本市场走向投资市场,大家将更加关注公司的基 本面,而不是做短差,搏消息。
  广东煜融投资管理有限公司董事长吴国平称,最大的亮点当然是推进股票发行注册制,千呼万唤始出来,当下的审核制有不少的弊端,最大的问题就是非 市场化,很容易权力寻租。一旦未来推进股票发行注册制,这非市场化的因素将会大大减小,但这也并非意味着随便什么公司只要注册申请下就能上市,只是,未来 这块会更市场更规范而已,这对未来我们股市中期走出健康的运行格局是有利的。对市场带来的冲击可能就是未来退市可能渐渐会成为常态了,这无疑会对投资者的 风险上会带来全新的考验,所以,未来股市的博弈,会促使投资者更注重内在价值的挖掘,而不仅仅是投机价值的把握。不死鸟慢慢会成为过去了,这双刃剑带来的 风险就是改革推进市场化所需要付出的代价,但对市场整体而言,则依然是机会远大于风险,这点看看美国市场就清楚了,因为,它们就是注册制的市场,就是非常 市场化的市场。所以,这里蕴含的战机在于价值蓝筹股,风险在于投机垃圾股。
  华泰证券(31.08, 0.46, 1.50%)首席策略分析师徐彪表示,随着如何落实“推进股票发行注册制改革”明朗,供给会二度打击小票。
  罗毅:IPO迎突破性发展 金融业迎历史机遇
  招商证券[微博](34.91, 1.96, 5.95%)金 融行业首席分析师罗毅在微博表示,股票发行迎来突破性发展,金融业迎来历史机遇。以下为原文:资本市场改革浪潮掀起,制度红利将陆续释放。三中全会确定将 推进多层次资本市场体系建设,股票发行有望迎来突破性改革,多元股权融资将继续深化,债券和衍生品市场的扩容是未来资本市场发展的新方向。金融改革未来将 以超越市场预期的速度快速推进,多管齐下。金融业迎来创新改革洪流铸就的历史发展机遇。
  中原证券总裁周小全在接受人民网[微博](61.37, -0.86, -1.38%)记 者采访时表示,此次改革中资本市场改革力度空前,其中推进股票发行注册制改革尤其重要。 “其中,推进股票发行注册制改革,可以说是资本市场的一个重大改革”,周小全表示,也是符合此次改革整体思路的。新股发行注册制有利于激发市场活力,券商 行业也将迎来难得的发展机遇。目前,新股发行仍实行事实上的审核制,由证监会组织发审会对拟上市企业的持续盈利能力等进行判断与把关,而新股发行注册制意 味着将这一决策权交给了广大投资者。周小全表示,股票发行转向注册制,其实不是证监会说了算,因为涉及到修改《证券法》相关规定,这次改革决定的出台实际 上是扫清了这一障碍。
  据中国新闻网报道,中国银行(4.47, 0.10, 2.29%)国际金融研究所所长宗良表示,《决定》中明确“健全多层次资本市场体系,推进股票发行注册制改革,多渠道推动股权融资,发展并规范债券市场,提高直接融资比重”,这再一次强调了中国要下大力气,使得金融体系更趋合理化。
  据人民网报道,中国农业银行(3.77, 0.11, 3.01%)首席经济学家向松祚表示,股票发行注册制改革意味着发审制度必然取消,这是重大举措,值得欢迎。
  据第一财经日报报道,西部证券(46.56, 0.65, 1.42%)新三板业务部总经理程晓明在接受本报记者采访时称,IPO注册制改革,放开上市节奏是关键。他说:“推行注册制改革符合市场化改革的方向。我们不仅要关注审批权的下放,也要关注上市节奏的放开。上市节奏的放开,是注册制的重要内容。”
  同时,程晓明认为上市的条件不应是“Condition to be listed ”,而应该是“condition of being listed”。他表示,可以以市场化的退市制度来倒逼市场化的上市制度。“理论上不退市的公司,就应该可以上市。而退市的标准应该是市场化的标准,就是 由交易价格和交易量来确定是否应该退市。”他说。事实上,证监会主席肖钢在11月2日中国上市公司协会2013年年会上曾强调,上市公司退市制度是资本市 场一项重要的基础性制度,要逐步实现退市制度的常态化。下一步,要严格执行新的退市制度,实现资本市场资源配置效率最大化。
  英大证券首席经济学家李大霄对中国证券报记者表示,推行注册制需要一些配套措施,除了新股发行制度改革,还需要有监管、信息披露、退市以及相关 法制完善等方面的配套。在成熟市场中,退市企业数量与上市企业的数量相当,市场处于动态平衡状态中。李大霄强调,新股发行制度要实现三个平衡,一是投资者 与融资者的利益平衡,二是融资速度与引资速度的平衡,三是一级市场和二级市场的平衡。
  首创证券研发副总经理王剑辉分析认为,市场对于IPO的恐惧更多在于新股的“三高”,而不是新股上市的数量,未来如果注册制得以推行,那么发行 门槛会降低,此前包含在IPO中的溢价或者隐形担保的因素便可以忽略,而由于新股不会再成为稀缺产品,筹码等评判标准会弱化,而投资者在面对众多新股选择 的时候,也会更加理性,对于市场而言是长期利好。
  宏源证券高 级经济学家孙海琳则分析,注册制等都是为了完善金融体系建设,作为市场化改革的趋势,证监会由审核制改成注册制,企业的资质和定价由市场自主完成,证监会 的职能由审核等前端管理向金管等后端管理转换。同时可以帮助很多有潜力的企业和公司上市,给投资者提供更多优质的资产,并且价值由市场决定,这符合市场在 资源配置中起决定性作用的表述,注册制也是金融深化的一种表现。
  天津诚基国际贸易有限公司合伙人、职业投资人天津股侠在微博中表示,股票发行注册制度改革的信息是,以前的新股发行都是核准制,带有行政色彩,改革为注册制度后上市公司只要只要证券发行人提供的材料不存在虚假、误导或者遗漏 ,证券主管机关也无权干涉,市场化程度高。
  新浪知名博主佐罗投资札记在微博中称,决定明确:“完善金融市场体系,推进股票发行注册制改革,多渠道推动股权融资。"这将引导我们的资本市场 走向投资市场,大家将更加关注公司的基本面。1、上市和退出会简化,业绩风险得到重视,绩优和绩差公司的价格差距将明显扩大。2、由于上市公司数量增加, 操纵板块和概念的难度会加大。
  招商证券金融行业首席分析师罗毅在微博中表示,资本市场改革进程加快,券商是制度红利最大受益者。《决定》提出推进股票发行注册制改革,多渠道 推动股权融资,发展并规范债券市场,提高直接融资比重。资本市场未来将以超越市场预期的速度快速推进,多管齐下。债券、场外和衍生品市场扩容是券商盈利的 新方向,券商步入制度改革和创新发展的黄金发展期

全球外储十年来首次下跌 因中国等抛售美元储备(图)

全球外储十年来首次下跌 因中国等抛售美元储备(图)

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凤凰财经讯 4月7日消息,根据彭博汇编的数据,今年3月份,全球外汇储备从2014年8月份创纪录水平的12.03万亿美元下降至11.6万亿美元,止住了2004 年开始激增4倍的势头。虽然美元升值造成其他储备货币价值缩水可能夸大了降幅,但从中依然可以显示出,在过去十年外汇储备平均每年增加8240亿美元之 后,全球央行的做法已经发生了转变。


“对于新兴市场来说这是一个重大挑战,”前国际货币基金组织的经济学家、SLJ Macro Partners LLP驻伦敦联合创始人任永力接受电话采访时说。他表示,新兴市场“需要加大刺激,而现在却已经种下了未来波动加剧的种子。”




央行数据显示,中国的外汇储备由去年6月份时的峰值4万亿美元减少至3.8万亿美元。过去一年,俄罗斯外汇储备下降25%,今年3月份降至3610亿美 元。全球外汇储备排名第三、仅次于中国和日本的沙特阿拉伯,去年8月份以来外汇储备减少100亿美元,降至7210亿美元。



德意志银行的外汇研究联合负责人George Saravelos表示,这种情况将不利于欧元,而近年来央行为了实现外汇储备多元化而买入欧元曾令欧元获益。




Thursday, April 2, 2015

Goldman: Here's Where U.S. Investors Should Put Their Money for the Rest of the Year

Goldman: Here's Where U.S. Investors Should Put Their Money for the Rest of the Year

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Goldman Sachs Chief U.S. Equity Strategist David Kostin is out with his latest U.S. quarterly chartbook, which looks back on Q1 and offers some guidance for the rest of the year.
In terms of the U.S. market, Goldman is encouraging investors to look at indices other than the S&P 500, which isn't expected to have much more upside by the end of the year.
"We expect the S&P 500 will reach 2100 by year-end, representing a 2% price gain from the current level. Given limited S&P 500 upside, we recommend investors buy the Nasdaq 100, which trades at a modest P/E premium to the S&P 500 (18x vs. 17x) despite having much higher expected EPS growth (14% vs. 5%)," said Goldman.
Taking a look at sector breakdowns, the firm is bullish on information technology, energy, and telecom services and bearish on financials and consumer staples.
The note also included a table of the stocks they see having the most upside as well as those with the most downside. Top names include Chesapeake Energy, Delta Air Lines, and American Airlines.

Wednesday, April 1, 2015

原来是它 揭秘国际油价暴跌真正的罪魁祸首(图)

原来是它 揭秘国际油价暴跌真正的罪魁祸首(图)

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导致自去年6月开始的油价暴跌的原因现在看来已经非常清楚,原因就是美国产量的激增。根据美国能源部门最新的分析显示,去年 是美国自1900年以来,原油产量最多的一年。去年美国原油产量日增长120万桶,至870万桶/日。目前,全球市场上原油的供给已经远超需求量。有人指 责欧佩克,特别是沙特,坚持不减产是导致原油过剩的原因。事实上美国才是导致供给严重过剩的原因。







报告内容还指出,自2014年中期以来,国际油价跌幅已经超过50%,由此也导致一些非主产原油区的产量增长开始放缓,与此同时对于原油生产方面的投资开 始向较成熟的原油主产区倾斜。根据美国能源信息署最新公布的短期能源展望报告显示,美国国内原油年产量增长速度将有所放缓,今年将实现8.1%的增幅,而 到明年这一数字将降为1.5%。