Tuesday, December 16, 2014

油价跌至55美元 中国替代美国成最大买家(图)

油价跌至55美元 中国替代美国成最大买家(图)

京港台:2014-12-17 00:13| 来源:中新网 | 评论( 2 )  | 我来说几句

油价跌至55美元 中国替代美国成最大买家(图)

来源:倍可亲(backchina.com) 国际原油价格15日继续暴跌。纽约原油期货价格五年来首次冲击每桶55美元重要关口。随着国际原油价格一路下滑,汽车司机无疑是最大的受益者。目前,全美已有13个州油价跌破了每加仑2美元        
  
  中国原油进口主要渠道。(资料图)
中新网12月16日电国际原油价格15日继续暴跌。纽约原油期货价格五年来首次冲击每桶55美元重要关口。随着国际原油价格一路下滑,汽车司机无疑是最大的受益者。目前,全美已有13个州油价跌破了每加仑2美元(每升不足53美分)。
   美国《华尔街日报》16日报道称,近来全球原油价格从每桶100美元上方骤然跌至65美元以下,一些人将此形容为全球两大产油国——沙特和美国相互对抗 所造成的结果。然而实际情况要更加复杂,这其中涉及到利比亚的反对派武装、印尼的出租车司机、美国德克萨斯州的石油工人乃至中东各国的油长。这既反映出了 原油供应的大幅增加,也折射出原油需求的下滑。
  报道称,自上世纪70年代起,尼日利亚源源不断地向北美地区的炼油厂提供高品质原油。到了2010年,这一贸易规模达到了平均每天100万桶。随后美国迎来了能源业的繁荣期。到了今年7月份,尼日利亚已不再向美国出口石油。
  在被美国国内激增的石油产量所取代后,数百万桶的尼日利亚原油如今涌向了印度、印度尼西亚等国,而这些国家也正是中东各国所欲吸引的买家。由此引发的市场份额之争,或将重塑石油输出国组织(简称欧佩克),并从根本上改变全球石油市场。
  报道指出,近来全球原油价格从每桶100美元上方骤然跌至65美元以下,油价的大幅跌势可能不会很快结束。美银美林称,美国油价在2015年可能会跌至每桶50美元。本月11日,美国油价多年来首次收于60美元/桶下方。
  此次油价下跌的根源要回溯到2008年德克萨斯州科图拉附近的一个小镇,在安东尼奥和墨西哥边境之间。鹰福特(Eagle Ford)页岩区的第一口井就在这里。当时美国原油日产量大约为470万桶。
   2009和2010年,全球经济复苏,石油需求增加,原油价格上涨,为发现新的供应提供了动力。在科图拉和其他地区,美国探商响应了这一趋势。如今,德 克萨斯州南部分布着200多个井平台,在地面下的岩石中勘探。一旦经过勘探和液压断裂处理,这些矿井将出产大量优质石油。目前,美国的原油日产量为890 万桶,得益于鹰福特和其他新开采油井的贡献。
  美国并没有增加汽油产量,否则他们将耗尽所有新增原油。而且根据20世纪70年代制定的美 国法律,出口原油几乎是不可能的。因此,美国炼油企业从德克萨斯州和北达科他州采购低价的优质原油,来取代尼日利亚、阿尔及利亚、安哥拉和巴西的原油,以 及除加拿大以外的其他所有石油生产国的原油。
  2008年8月,也就是鹰福特打下第一口页岩油井一个月之前,欧佩克出口至美国的原油为1.806亿桶。至2014年8月,欧佩克对美国的石油出口量只剩下这一数字的一半,约为9290万桶。这相当于抵达美国港口的油轮数量减少约100艘。
  在很长一段时间里,全球对原油不断增长的胃口似乎能够吸收所有这些美国不再需要的原油。到2011年,油价开始在每桶90美元至100美元之间徘徊,大多数时间都停留在这一价格区间。
  但到今年早些时候,另一种趋势开始成为关注焦点,令华尔街能源分析师和其他市场观察人士感到意外。今年3月,许多分析师预测今年全球日均原油需求将增加140万桶,至9270万桶。
  在印尼、泰国、印度,马来西亚等国油价出现上涨,而这些国家时正在逐步取消燃料补贴。在雅加达和孟买,驾车人减少了汽油使用量。
  供应增加与需求下滑并存的局面给油价带来了下行压力。然而今年整个夏季,伊拉克动乱担忧还一度导致油价居高不下。当时交易员担心,极端组织“伊斯兰国”可能迫使伊拉克减产。
   接着,两大事件改变了原油市场的走势。6月底,《华尔街日报》的报道称,美国政府近40年来首次批准出口美国原油。虽然被允许出口的油品有限,但市场认 为这标志着美国首次打破了长期的原油出口禁令。美国不仅减少了原油进口量,还可能很快开始出口一定量的原油。这一消息搅动了原油市场,油价开始从夏季高点 回落。
  今年7月1日,利比亚反对派武装同意开放两大石油港口。利比亚石油经由地中海出口到欧洲。尼日利亚已不再向美国墨西哥湾和加拿大东部出口石油,向欧洲的出口也将很快被取代。
  
  美军战机空袭叙利亚境内遭IS控制的炼油厂。(凤凰军事)
油价跌势开启。7月底,美国原油价格跌破每桶100美元。9月初,国际能源署(简称IEA)指出,原油需求增速已显著放缓。一个月后,油价跌破每桶90美元。
  9月中旬,《石油情报周刊》称,大西洋两岸的石油供应过剩,尼日利亚需要在亚洲为其所产的轻质低硫原油找到新客户。
  沙特并不希望尼日利亚与亚洲炼油厂商建立长期关系。9月末,沙特决定立即降价以巩固自己在市场的地位。该国将销往亚洲的原油官方价格每桶下调1美元,一周之内,伊朗和科威特也紧随其后选择降价。
  两周之后,IEA再度将全年石油日需求量增长预期下调20万桶,至70万桶,这一预期只有该机构年初预期的约一般水平。受这一消息影响,油价每桶下跌近4美元。
  这时的石油市场似乎已进入直线下跌阶段。10月份的23个交易日中,原油价格有八个交易日跌幅超过1美元,有一个交易日上涨了1美元。
  交易员的注意力转向了欧佩克。以往欧佩克会在油价下跌时减产、在油价上涨时增产,起到市场稳定器的作用。其实很多欧佩克国家并不希望减产,因为它们依靠石油赚取的现金来支付庞大的福利开销。
  沙特石油部长纳伊米数周以来一直保持沉默。过去每当沙特减产,总会“引火烧身”,唯一的结果是其他国家继续生产石油并抢走沙特的石油客户。
  纽约追踪全球原油市场动态的公司ClipperData的首席营运长蔡恩(Abudi Zein)表示,沙特也已经感觉到了这种竞争。他说,以往主要将石油出口到美国的哥伦比亚今年发现其最大的买家是中国,而中国是欧佩克的一个重要市场。
  蔡恩说,对沙特而言,亚洲是个增长的市场。他表示,在北美尼日利亚和哥伦比亚已经被踢出当地市场,沙特必须得采取措施。
  11月晚些时候在维也纳的例行会议上,欧佩克维持产量不变,美国和欧洲的石油价格则每桶再降7美元。
  本月10日,纳伊米曾被问及欧佩克是否很快采取行动减少出口,而纳伊米的则反问,欧佩克为何要减产?

Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Crude Rises Amid Speculation Over U.S. Shale-Oil Supply Growth

Crude Rises Amid Speculation Over U.S. Shale-Oil Supply Growth

Dec. 9 (Bloomberg) – Marketfield Asset Management CEO Michael Shaoul examines falling oil prices and the impact on global markets. He speaks with Bloomberg’s Tom Keene, Scarlet Fu and Brendan Greeley on “Bloomberg Surveillance.” (Source: Bloomberg)
Brent rose for the first time in six days amid speculation about the price level that will force some producers to curb investment and limit future supply growth. West Texas Intermediate advanced in New York.
Brent futures rose as much as 1.1 percent in London, reversing an earlier loss of 1.4 percent. U.S. shale oil production will continue to grow, according to Citigroup Inc., while consultant Energy Aspects said the expansion may slow next year. Price competition intensified in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries after Iraq, the group’s second-largest producer, reduced its Basrah Light crude price for January to the lowest in at least 11 years.
Crude is trading in a bear market as the highest U.S. production in three decades exacerbates a global glut. Saudi Arabia, which led OPEC’s decision to maintain rather than cut output at a Nov. 27 meeting, last week offered supplies to its Asian customers at the deepest discount in at least 14 years.
“After yesterday’s solid fall, it’s no surprise that oil is taking a small breather,” Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at Oslo-based SEB, said by e-mail. “The market will remain volatile until it finds the Goldilocks price that dampens U.S. shale oil supply growth, stimulates the global economy and still lets OPEC members survive.”
Brent for January settlement climbed as much as 74 cents to $66.93 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange before trading at $66.47 at 1:41 p.m. local time. It slid $2.88 to $66.19 yesterday, the lowest close since September 2009. The European benchmark crude traded at a premium of $2.95 to WTI. Prices are down 40 percent this year.

Shale Production

WTI for January delivery increased 52 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $63.57 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract lost $2.79 to $63.05 yesterday, the lowest close since July 2009. Total volume was about 35 percent above the 100-day average for the time of day.
The U.S. oil boom, driven by a combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, has unlocked supplies from shale formations including the Eagle Ford in Texas and the Bakken in North Dakota. Production increased to 9.08 million barrels a day through Nov. 28, the fastest rate in weekly records that started in January 1983, data from the Energy Information Administration showed.

Decline Rate

U.S. growth is at risk of slowing in the second half of next year and in 2016, Amrita Sen, chief oil market analyst at consultant Energy Aspects, said at a Platts conference in Dubai. Market fundamentals don’t warrant a price as low as $60 a barrel and WTI will average in the “high sixties” in the first half of next year, with Brent in the “low seventies,” she said.
Shale production will keep growing because the rate of decline from wells has been overstated, Ed Morse, head of commodities research at Citigroup Inc., said at the same conference.
ConocoPhillips plans capital expenditure of $13.5 billion in 2015, down about 20 percent from this year, according to a statement yesterday. The reduction primarily reflects lower spending on major projects, several of which are nearing completion, as well as deferral of spending on some North American shale plays, it said.

Mideast Competition

“The Iraqi cut is just an indication of the ongoing ‘price war’,” Eugen Weinberg, head of commodities research at Frankfurt-based Commerzbank AG, said by e-mail. “OPEC is currently thinking more in terms of market share and doesn’t care so much about pricing.”
Iraq’s Oil Marketing Co. will sell Basrah Light to Asia at $4 a barrel below the average of Middle East benchmark Oman and Dubai grades, the steepest discount since Bloomberg started compiling the data in August 2003. The company reduced prices to U.S. buyers by 30 cents and marked up shipments to Europe by 10 cents, the list obtained by Bloomberg News showed.
Middle East producers including Iraq, Iran and Kuwait typically follow Saudi Arabia’s lead when setting crude export prices. The kingdom is the biggest member of OPEC, which supplies about 40 percent of the world’s crude.
Saudi Aramco, the state-run oil company, lowered the official selling price for Arab Light to Asia next month to $2 a barrel less than the average of Oman and Dubai, the company said by e-mail Dec. 4. That was $1.90 wider than December and the biggest discount in data compiled by Bloomberg since June 2000.
“Oil prices will stay around the current level of $65 for six or seven months until OPEC changes its production policy, or recovery in world economic growth becomes more clear, or geopolitical tension arises,” Nizar Al-Adsani, Kuwait Petroleum’s chief executive officer, said yesterday. The nation is the third-largest of OPEC’s 12 members.
To contact the reporter on this story: Jake Rudnitsky in Moscow at jrudnitsky@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Alaric Nightingale at anightingal1@bloomberg.net James Herron

Monday, December 8, 2014

Brent oil futures crash to lowest since October 2009

Brent oil futures crash to lowest since October 2009

CommoditiesDec 08, 2014 02:22PM GMT Add a Comment
 
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© Reuters.  Brent oil futures extend sell-off to hit lowest since October 2009 © Reuters. Brent oil futures extend sell-off to hit lowest since October 2009
Investing.com - Brent oil futures tumbled to the lowest level since 2009 on Monday, as concerns over the global economic outlook and the impact on future oil demand prospects continued to dampen the appeal of the commodity.

On the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for January delivery fell by as much as 3.28% to touch a session low of $66.80 a barrel, the weakest level since October 2009, before trading at $67.19 during U.S. morning hours, down $1.89, or 2.73%.

On Friday, London-traded Brent prices lost 57 cents, or 0.82%, to settle at $69.07 a barrel.

Data released earlier showed that China’s exports climbed 4.7% from a year earlier in November, missing expectations for a 7.9% increase, while imports fell 6.7%, compared to forecasts for a gain of 3.5%.

The country's trade surplus widened to $54.5 billion last month from $45.4 billion in October, compared to estimates for a surplus of $43.2 billion.

Separately, revised data showed that Japan's economy shrank by an annualized 1.9% in the third quarter, more than the preliminary estimate of a 1.6% decline.

On a quarter-over-quarter basis the economy contracted by 0.5% in the three months to September, compared to a preliminary estimate of a 0.4% contraction.

Wall Street investment bank Morgan Stanley cut its price forecast for Brent crude to $70 from $98 and for 2016 to $88 from $102.

"Without OPEC intervention, markets risk becoming unbalanced, with peak oversupply likely in the second quarter of 2015," the bank said in a report on Monday.

Elsewhere, on the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in January dropped $1.38, or 2.09%, to trade at $64.47 a barrel, after hitting a daily low of 64.11.

Nymex oil futures declined 97 cents, or 1.45%, on Friday to end at $65.84 a barrel. Prices hit $63.72 on December 1, a level not seen since July 2009.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, traded near the strongest level since March 2009, as upbeat U.S. employment data added to expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interests sooner and faster than previously expected.

Oil prices typically weaken when the U.S. currency strengthens as the dollar-priced commodity becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies.

London-traded Brent prices have fallen nearly 42% since June, when it climbed near $116, while WTI futures are down almost 40% from a recent peak of $107.50 in June.

Saudi Arabia’s state-run oil company lowered official selling prices for its crude in January last week to the lowest in at least 14 years for buyers in the U.S. and Asia.

The move suggested that the kingdom is stepping up a battle for market share with cheaper U.S. shale oil after last week's OPEC decision to keep production quotas unchanged.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said on November 27 that it would maintain its output target at 30 million barrels a day, disappointing hopes the oil cartel would lower production to support the market, as a surplus develops amid the shale boom in the U.S., which is pumping at the fastest pace in more than 30 years.

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

The 51% Chinese web stock crash that analysts never saw coming

The 51% Chinese web stock crash that analysts never saw coming Add to ...

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Analysts had high expectations for Sina Corp. last year, forecasting a 19 per cent stock rally in the Chinese Web portal operator.
It hasn’t quite worked out that way.
Sina plunged 51 per cent $38.32 in the 12 months through Monday, creating a 70 percentage-point gap between forecast and performance. That’s the biggest buy-rating blunder by analysts covering the 55 largest Chinese companies traded in New York.

MORE RELATED TO THIS STORY

The stock sank to a four-year low last week after Sina’s portal advertising business, which accounts for half its revenue, turned unprofitable this year amid a user shift to other platforms. While analysts had in part been drawn to Sina because of its controlling stake in the microblogging site Weibo Corp., that stock has slumped 24 per cent since Sept. 11 as rival platform WeChat grew and the government stepped up control over social media.
“People were too enamored of the power and upside of Weibo,” David Riedel, president of Riedel Equity Research in New York, said by e-mail yesterday. The company “will have difficulty monetizing, will always have the concern over government censorship hanging over them and will have slowing growth, all bad for stock price performance.”
Riedel was one of three analysts who had sell ratings on Sina last November, when 25 recommended buying and four advised investors to hold the shares. His price target was $55.94 when the stock was trading above $70, while his current recommendation is hold with a price estimate of $45.
Quarterly Losses
Analysts at Brean Capital LLC and Jefferies Group LLC were the most optimistic a year ago, setting 12-month price targets of $120 and $107, respectively. While their bullish calls on Sina were wrong, investors who followed the analysts’ recommendations to buy Baidu Inc. would have made money. The operator of China’s biggest search engine has gained 54 per cent in the past 12 months.
Brean Capital analyst Fawne Jiang didn’t respond to an e-mailed request for comment on her Sina recommendation. Cynthia Meng at Jefferies pointed out that she changed her rating to hold from buy in January, citing increased competition and tighter government oversight.
Sina, which has a market value of $2.6-billion, fell 0.1 per cent to $38.30 at 11:51 a.m. in New York. Analysts 12 months ago forecast that shares would be selling for $92.31. It’s the biggest negative surprise in that time period among the most– actively traded Chinese companies in the U.S. with a market value above $1-billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
E-Commerce Focus
Shanghai-based Sina said this month that it lost $10.9-million on operations in the period July through September as expenses jumped 43 per cent. It was the third straight quarterly loss. Revenue growth of 8 per cent was the slowest in almost two years amid a shift in usage from the Sina.com website to other platforms such as mobile.
“On the portal side, we’re facing challenges as more marketing dollars from brand advertisers have been shifted to video, vertical sites and mobile,” Sina’s Chief Executive Officer Charles Chao said in a call with analysts on Nov. 13.
Cathy Peng, Sina’s Beijing-based head of investor relations, didn’t respond to an e-mail seeking comment on the stock performance.
Investor attention is shifting to Chinese Internet retailers such as Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., which has rallied 68 per cent since its September debut in New York, because portal websites like Sina and Sohu.com Inc. are declining in popularity, according to Eric Jackson, the founder of Ironfire Capital LLC.
“It’s hard to get excited about user growth in these businesses compared with e-commerce companies like Alibaba,” he said in a phone interview on Nov. 17.
Weibo Stake
While analysts were overly optimistic about Sina last year, the drop in its shares may have been excessive, according to Chiheng Tan, a Boston-based analyst at Granite Point Capital Inc., which invests in U.S.-listed Chinese Internet companies.
“If you add up Sina’s ownership of Weibo, Leju, Tian Ge, and its cash balance, the number should be bigger than its current market value,” Tan said in e-mailed comments on Nov. 19.
Sina’s retreat over the past year compares with a 2.8 per cent advance in the Bloomberg China-US Equity Index. The company holds stakes in Tian Ge Interactive Holdings Ltd., a social video platform, and home-listing website Leju Holdings Ltd. besides owning about 54 per cent of Weibo.
Analysts had estimated the value of Weibo would be $5.1-billion before its April IPO. It’s now valued at about $3.7-billion. China’s has stepped up efforts to rein in online defamation, with the nation’s top court saying last year that Web users could face jail time for defamatory rumors.
WeChat Competition
Weibo had 167 million monthly active users in September, compared with 468 million on WeChat, the mobile messaging application owned by Tencent Holdings Ltd., China’s second– largest Internet company.
“A lot of people have noticed the change of interest from Weibo to WeChat,” said Jackson, who sold his holdings in Sina before the Weibo spinoff. “They are not interested in putting advertising into Weibo, because it is less popular now.”

Thursday, November 6, 2014

3 Reasons Why U.S. Natural Gas Prices Will Remain Low

Summary

  • US natural gas prices should remain low over the next few years, unless we're on the cusp of a new ice age.
  • Associated gas production from liquids-rich plays continues to grow, while increased drilling efficiency, process innovation and improved completion techniques have enabled operators to extract more gas from fewer rigs.
  • An uptick in domestic demand and exports are still a ways off.
  • Overlooked shadow capacity in the Haynesville Shale and other plays will ensure that any meaningful increase in natural-gas prices is short-lived.
Despite persistent weakness, pundits continue to call false bottoms in natural gas prices and recommend shares of companies that produce primarily natural gas.
Far too many investors and talking heads were head-faked by the weather-driven spike in natural gas that occurred in early 2014, buying shares of Cabot Oil & Gas Corp (NYSE: COG) and other names with sizable acreage positions in the Marcellus Shale.
Here's why North American natural gas prices should remain low over the next two to three years.

Reason No. 1: US Natural Gas Production Remains Strong despite Low Prices

The investment media made a big deal about last winter's upsurge in natural gas prices, a phenomenon that stemmed from severely cold weather, not a lasting change in the underlying supply and demand conditions.
Many investors and media outlets focus on the spot market, where volumes are available for immediate delivery. This price benchmark is much more vulnerable to seasonal weather conditions.
In contrast, oil and gas producers focus on the 12-month strip, or the average cost of natural gas for delivery over the next year. This forward-looking benchmark smoothes out weather-related fluctuations and other temporary blips, providing better insight into the producer's full-year price realizations.

On this basis, North American natural gas prices have fluctuated around $4 per million British thermal units over the past four years, with the high and low end of this range marked by the no-show 2011-12 winter and the polar vortex earlier this year.
Plummeting natural gas prices from mid-2008 to late 2009 prompted many upstream operators to scale back drilling activity in the Haynesville Shale and other plays that primarily produce this out-of-favor commodity.
However, the decline in gas-directed drilling activity hasn't resulted in a commensurate decline in US production.

Prior the shale revolution, a decline in the number of active rigs targeting natural gas would translate into lower production - exactly what happened when drilling activity slumped from mid-2001 to mid-2002.
But the traditional relationship between the gas-directed rig count and production completely broke down in 2008.
Although the number of rigs targeting natural gas collapsed from more than 1,600 in mid-2008 to 310 units in April 2014, US production has soared from 57 billion cubic feet per day to 70 billion cubic feet per day in July 2014.
This divergence reflects two factors:
Producers ramping up drilling activity in liquids-rich plays that also yield significant volumes of crude oil and natural gas liquids; and
Huge gains in efficiency as producers hone their drilling and completion techniques and address supply-chain bottlenecks.
You can read more about these trends in Breaking Down the US Onshore Rig Count and Salute Your Drillmasters: Efficiency Gains Lower Production Costs.
As the energy industry has transitioned to pad drilling and optimized well designs and completion techniques, operators have produced more natural gas from fewer active rigs.

Over the past two years, output per rig has increased by more than 50 percent in the Marcellus Shale, effectively lowering producers' break-even costs to about $2 per million British thermal units in the play's liquids-rich fairway.

Source: Crestwood Midstream Partners LP
These efficiency gains, coupled with readily available credit and independent producers' imperative to grow their hydrocarbon output, mean that natural-gas prices near $4 per million British thermal units are no longer a disincentive to production.
But back in 2008, many producers needed natural gas to fetch $7 to $8 per million British thermal units to support drilling activity in higher-cost resource plays.
In addition, 15 percent to 20 percent of US natural gas production comes from oil wells, a figure that could increase in coming years as more gas-gathering and processing infrastructure comes onstream in the Bakken Shale.
Bottom Line: As long as crude oil remains above $70 per barrel, volumes of associated natural gas should continue to climb.
We also expect North American crude-oil output to remain more resilient than some expect because of hedging programs that lock in prices on future output and independent producers allocating more capital to core acreage that generates the best internal rates of return.

Reason No. 2: The Demand Response Won't Move the Needle Right Away

Over the past few years, energy companies have proposed the construction of more than 30 terminals to export liquefied natural gas (LNG). Thus far, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) has approved only four projects - about 6 billion cubic feet per day - to move forward.
But the market itself will dictate how much LNG export capacity the US adds; given the capital intensity of these projects, only terminals that have secure volume commitments from customers will be able to obtain the necessary financing. (See Understanding the Appeal of US LNG Exports.)
The case for LNG exports is deceptively simple: Whereas the 12-month strip for US natural gas prices hovers around $3.60 per million British thermal units, this commodity fetches $9 per million British thermal units in Europe and $16 per million British thermal units in Asia.
When you factor in the $6 to $7 per million British thermal units that it would cost to liquefy and ship LNG from the Gulf Coast to Asia, these price advantages appear slightly less compelling. Liquefaction and shipping costs for cargoes headed to Europe are expected to range from $3 to $4 per million British thermal units.
Cheniere Energy Partners LP's (NYSE: CQP) Sabine Pass facility is slated to start exporting LNG from the US Gulf Coast in late 2015 or early 2016. More capacity will come onstream by 2020. By 2021, the US will also export more natural gas to Mexico and Canada via pipeline than it imports.
All told, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that the US will export about 2 trillion cubic feet of natural gas annually by 2020 - about 7 percent of projected supplies.

The EIA's longer-term outlook contemplates the US exporting 5.8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas per year and 37.5 trillion cubic feet in annual production. Although long-range projections in the energy patch should be taken with a grain of salt, US exports would account for only 15 percent of domestic output in this scenario.
And if US natural gas prices were to rally temporarily, the price advantage for customers in Asia and Europe would diminish, eroding demand in the international spot market.
Commentators who predict a surge in natural gas demand from electric utilities likewise overlook the scope that power producers have to switch between coal and natural gas at their plants, depending on which thermal fuel offers the best economics.
Natural gas consumption in the power sector spiked in 2012 after the no-show winter depressed the price of this commodity.
But electric utilities have reduced their natural gas consumption over the past two years. In July 2014, the power sector burned about 7.8 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas less than in 2012.

The catalysts for this trend: Depressed coal prices and natural gas prices that remained elevated after the severely cold 2013-14 winter, a situation that incentivized electric utilities to switch fuels.
In July 2014, US electricity demand fell 2.3 percent year over year because of a more than 12 percent drop in total cooling degree day. Natural gas consumption in the power sector tumbled 7.3 percent, while coal demand dropped 1.9 percent.
Stricter regulation of carbon dioxide emissions will lead to the shutdown of as much as 50 to 60 gigawatts of coal-fired generation capacity in the US-roughly 15 percent to 20 percent of the current fleet. About 30 gigawatts could be shuttered by the end of next year.
Although the anticipated reduction in coal-fired capacity will be offset by an increased reliance on natural gas, the 1 trillion cubic feet per annum in incremental demand that's expected to materialize by 2020 won't offset a 4.5 trillion cubic feet jump in annual production.

Reason No. 3: Overlooked Shadow Capacity

In the global crude-oil market, analysts pay close attention to OPEC's spare production capacity, or oil fields that could ramp up output quickly to offset a supply outage and rebalance the market.
Saudi Arabia controls much of this spare capacity and stepped up its output in 2011 to dampen the Libyan civil war's effect on global oil prices.
Similarly, North America boasts a number of prolific natural gas plays in which producers could accelerate drilling activity if prices were to climb to between $4.50 and $5 per million British thermal units.
Based on total reserves, Louisiana's Haynesville Shale is one of the largest gas plays in the US. However, this play has fallen out of favor because it produces negligible volumes of crude oil and natural gas liquids, higher-priced hydrocarbons that help to boost economics.
This unfavorable production mix explains why drilling activity in the Haynesville Shale slumped sharply after 2008 and gas production from this field had plummeted by almost one-third from its peak.
However, the Haynesville Shale's rig count and production levels appear to have bottomed last winter, suggesting that natural gas prices over $4.50 per million British thermal units would incentivize producers to accelerate drilling activity in the play's core region.
Most analysts estimate that natural gas prices of $5 per million British thermal units would enable producers to make money in the marginal portions of the Haynesville Shale.
The region already boasts sufficient pipeline and processing capacity to handle an increase in production, while its proximity to proposed export capacity on the Gulf Coast is another plus.
In short, any sustained upsurge in North American natural-gas prices would be stymied by an influx of output from the Haynesville Shale and other plays.
The current natural gas futures curve projects that prices generally will remain below $5 per million British thermal through at least the middle of the coming decade.

Futures market expectations for gas prices are lower today than they were a year ago; the rapid build in inventories has convinced the market that significant structural changes will need to take place to tighten the supply-demand balance for more than a month or two.

Wednesday, November 5, 2014

一图揭秘油价下跌后的俄罗斯:中国损失百亿

一图揭秘油价下跌后的俄罗斯:中国损失百亿

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