Wednesday, November 21, 2012

人民币汇率15次涨停

人民币汇率15次涨停
 
http://www.creaders.net  2012-11-21 00:04:52  新华网  [0条评论,查看/发表评论]
      据报道,中国外汇交易中心数据显示,20日人民币兑美元汇率即期市场早盘报出6.2297的价格,再现「涨停」现象。这是十月下旬以来人民币兑美元汇率即期市场上的第15次「涨停」,是汇改七年以来从未有过的现象。   分析人士认为,在国内外外汇市场出现新变化的背景下,近期人民币汇率走势正进入新阶段,在靠近均衡点、波动日益加大的情况下,企业宜提高自身应对能力。
  「双顺差」决定人民币升值走势
  分析人士认为,就近期而言,美元的走软是引发人民币走强的直接动因。
  「上週五美国国会领袖称与奥巴马进行的财政悬崖会议『具有建设性』,该发言有助于风险情绪回升。」中国银行相关资金交易员指出,作为避险货币,美元走势受市场情绪波动影响较大,上週五风险情绪回升引发美元回落,从而导致最近两个交易日人民币再度走强。
  不过从长期来看,人民币兑美元汇率走强有着更为根本的塬因:从经济基本面看,我国国际收支的双顺差格局直接引发人民币汇率持续走升。
  「今年以来,尽管我国对外贸易顺差有所收窄,但外汇市场美元供大于求的格局始终未变,这是决定人民币持续升值的最根本塬因。」中国社科院世经政所研究员张斌指出。
  国际金融问题专家赵庆明认为,贸易差额是观察汇率变化的基本因素。今年以来,我国贸易顺差逐季扩大,全年贸易顺差将突破2000亿美元。贸易顺差的扩大,无疑会增加外汇市场的美元供应,推高人民币汇率。
  央行行长周小川在其新着《国际金融危机:观察、分析与应对》中谈到汇率问题时指出:汇率走势与经济基本面密切相关,总体来讲,国际收支平衡虽有明显改善,但资本项目和经常项目双顺差的基本面并没有发生逆转。
  连续「涨停」传递新信号
  不过值得关注的是,与以往相比,当前我国外汇市场出现了一些新变化。
  有数据显示,近期人民币兑美元即期市场曾出现十余个交易日盘中「涨停」现象,这一现象在2005年汇改以来的七年中从未发生过。
  「种种迹象表明,央行对外汇市场的管理强度有所弱化,正在减少对汇率的干预,汇率走势将更多地由市场供需来决定。」张斌认为,从最近央行口径外汇占款的大幅减少可以看出,央行的购汇力度有所减弱,市场正在汇率走向上扮演着更为重要的角色。
  对外经贸大学金融学院院长丁志杰认为,最近央行外汇占款增加很少,表明央行不再在外汇市场上增持外汇,反映央行对人民币升值的容忍度在上升,体现在市场上便是人民币升值要比以往快一些,盘中不断「涨停」。
  过去几年来,基于对人民币升值的担忧,我国央行会在外汇市场购入一定数量美元,以平抑每日的人民币走势,并形成央行外汇占款。最新数据显示,9月份央行外汇占款微增20亿元,可见购汇规模明显减少。
  汇率抵达「均衡点」考验企业应对力
  分析人士认为,当前监管层放由市场决定汇率走势的背后,凸显人民币汇率已日益逼近均衡水平的事实,未来汇率双向波动的幅度或有所加大。
  张斌认为,从央行容忍人民币升值可以看出,当前人民币汇率已接近升值目标。自2005年我国启动人民币汇率改革以来,七年来人民币兑美元汇率升值幅度已接近30%,下一步还将升值至何种程度,成为外汇市场一直无法忽略的话题。
  而经济学家吴敬琏日前在国际金融论坛2012年年会上指出,自去年四季度人民币兑美元汇率出现连续跌停之后,人民币汇率已接近均衡水平附近。
  专家指出,人民币抵达均衡水平意味着汇率走势将面临从「单向升值」走向「双向波动」,波动幅度的加大将考验企业的应对能力。
  丁志杰认为,外贸企业应尽早建立汇率风险防范机制,合理利用外汇远期合约等金融工具规避汇率风险,通过远期结汇锁定汇率,或在订单合同中加入价格调整条款等方法规避汇兑风险

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Carry Trades Lose Most Since ’11 as HSBC Gauge Warns: Currencies

Carry Trades Lose Most Since ’11 as HSBC Gauge Warns: Currencies

The foreign-exchange market is signaling more pain ahead for currencies that benefit from a sustained global recovery, five years after the onset of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.
HSBC Holdings Plc’s Global Hazard Indicator, which combines implied volatility readings in options for the dollar, euro and yen, shows wider price swings in currencies over the next year than in the coming three months. If history is any guide, that means the dollar and yen will strengthen and higher-yielding, higher-risk currencies such as the Brazilian real and South African rand will depreciate.
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Carry Trades Lose Most Since ’11 as HSBC Gauge Warns

Kiyoshi Ota/Bloomberg
The Bank of Japan added 11 trillion yen ($137 billion) to increase its fund to 66 trillion yen on Oct. 30.
The Bank of Japan added 11 trillion yen ($137 billion) to increase its fund to 66 trillion yen on Oct. 30. Photographer: Kiyoshi Ota/Bloomberg
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Carry Trades Lose Most Since ’11 as HSBC Gauge Warns

Gianluca Colla/Bloomberg
HSBC expects the opposite, with the greenback’s status as a haven diminishing on the approaching fiscal cliff as investors reduce dollar holdings linked to the U.S.’s mounting economic burden.
HSBC expects the opposite, with the greenback’s status as a haven diminishing on the approaching fiscal cliff as investors reduce dollar holdings linked to the U.S.’s mounting economic burden. Photographer: Gianluca Colla/Bloomberg
 
 The euro will decline to $1.22 by the end of 2013, according to Citigroup. Photographer: Chris
 
Ratcliffe/Bloomberg
While reports in the U.S. show gains in jobs and consumer confidence, and data from China signal that services industries are rebounding from 19-month lows, foreign-exchange speculation is a losing bet. The UBS V24 Carry Index that tracks profits from the so-called carry trade, where money borrowed in low- yielding currencies is used to buy those from nations with higher rates, is at about the lowest level since early 2011.
“The market is not yet fully convinced that we are back to normal trading conditions, and sees the potential for renewed turbulence in 2013,” said Daragh Maher, a strategist at HSBC in London. “There are plenty of potential triggers for renewed volatility on the horizon,” he said, citing potential spending cuts and tax increases in the U.S., the sovereign-debt crisis in Europe and political change in China.

Easy Profits

Investing the proceeds of dollar-denominated loans should offer easy profits because the Fed has said it probably will keep the target rate for overnight lending between banks near zero through mid-2015. The carry trade can lose money when the currency used to fund the strategy strengthens, or the targeted currency weakens, or some combination.
Instead, selling borrowed dollars to buy reais in Brazil, where the target interest rate is 7.25 percent, has lost about 3.5 percent this year as the real tumbled 21 percent from its 2012 high in February, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The same trade with the rand has lost about 3.9 percent.
“The ample provision of liquidity by central banks is at least helping to calm markets and make them more stable than they would otherwise be,” Nick Bennenbroek, head of currency strategy at Wells Fargo & Co. in New York, said in a Nov. 7 telephone interview. “The tendency for major currencies to be driven by interest rates is somewhat diminished compared to where it has been in the past.”

Declining Speculation

Foreign-exchange speculation is declining as $607 billion in U.S. spending cuts and tax increases set to take effect Jan. 1, concern that European leaders aren’t moving fast enough to fix the region’s debt crisis, and slowing growth in emerging economies from China to Brazil weigh on sentiment.
The world economy will expand 3.3 percent this year, the least since the 2009 recession, the International Monetary Fund said on Oct. 9. The Washington-based IMF also said it sees an “alarmingly high” risk of a steeper slowdown.
Average daily volume in foreign exchange conducted through ICAP Plc’s EBS trading system fell 46 percent in October from a year earlier, the company said last week.
For all the efforts to restore confidence in the financial system, the world’s foreign-exchange market, where $4 trillion trades each day, is saying that the global economy can’t stand on its own without the unprecedented stimulus by the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan. (8301)

Dollar Favored

The euro slid as much as 0.3 percent to $1.2673 today, the weakest since Sept. 7. The yen gained against its major counterparts, climbing 0.5 percent to 100.57 per euro and 0.3 percent to 79.29 versus the dollar as of 3:22 p.m. in Tokyo.
Rising volatility may favor the dollar as investors seek the haven of the world’s reserve currency. The euro will depreciate to $1.25 next year, and the dollar will strengthen to 83 yen from 79.50, according to median estimates of more than 35 strategists surveyed by Bloomberg.
HSBC’s three-month hazard index was most recently at 10.3 percent, below the one-year level of 12.1 percent. The three- month gauge topped the one-year measure by the widest margin in October 2008, a month after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy and pushed the financial system into crisis.
The amount by which the one-year index exceeded the three- month measure peaked at 2.9 percent in March 2011, just before the global economy faltered and the MSCI All-Country World Index (MXWD) slid 18.3 percent over the next six months.
The discrepancy may be more a reflection of investors paring bets, rather than speculation for a weakening economy, according to Steven Englander of Citigroup Inc.

‘Very Soft’

Investors who wagered on increased realized volatility may be getting discouraged by a lack of price fluctuation, causing them to unwind positions and artificially drive down near-term contracts, he said.
“With realized volatility so low, everybody who bought volatility sees their positions losing value, which means they sell it back into the market,” Englander, head of Group of 10 currency strategy at Citigroup in New York, said in a Nov. 7 telephone interview. “Until that process is finished, you have short-term volatilities looking very soft.”
Realized volatility on one-month euro-dollar options reached its lowest level since 2007 on Oct. 31, dropping to 6.76 percent. Historical volatility for three-month euro-dollar contracts fell to 7.42 on Nov. 6, also the weakest since 2007.
The euro will decline to $1.22 by the end of 2013, according to Citigroup. Wells Fargo, the most-accurate currency forecaster as of Sept. 20, also sees the euro slipping to $1.22 against the dollar over that period.

HSBC Euro

HSBC expects the opposite, with the greenback’s status as a haven diminishing on the approaching fiscal cliff as investors reduce dollar holdings linked to the U.S.’s mounting economic burden, Maher said. The euro will rise to $1.40 by the end of 2013, HSBC projects.

Even with the extra stimulus by central banks, the IMF said it sees a one-in-six chance of growth slipping below 2 percent.

The Bank of Japan added 11 trillion yen ($137 billion) to increase its asset-purchase fund, it’s main policy tool, to 66 trillion yen on Oct. 30. The central bank also said it would offer unlimited loans to banks.
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said Sept. 13 that the central bank would purchase $40 billion of mortgage bonds a month until an economic recovery is well-established, on top of two earlier rounds of bond purchases totaling $2.3 trillion from December 2008 and June 2011.

ECB President Mario Draghi said on Sept. 6 that policy makers agreed to an unlimited bond-purchase program to regain control of interest rates in the euro area and fight speculation of a currency breakup.

‘High Volatility’

“If you believe that an activist central bank will keep fighting, that suggests growth, which also means high liquidity and low volatility,” Shahab Jalinoos, a Stamford, Connecticut- based senior currency strategist at UBS AG, said in a Nov. 8 telephone interview. “If you think that you don’t have an activist central bank, or have one whose hands are tied by something, then you probably will see high volatility.”
Confidence among U.S. consumers climbed to a five-year high in November, while payrolls expanded by 171,000 workers in October, exceeding the highest forecast in a Bloomberg survey. China’s services industries rebounded in October from the slowest expansion in at least 19 months, adding to manufacturing gains.
Meanwhile, growth in Brazil, the largest emerging economy after China, will average 1.5 percent this year, less than the U.S. or Japan, according to 30 economists’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
The European Commission said the euro-area economy will stagnate next year as the sovereign-debt crisis engulfing southern Europe begins to slow export-driven Germany.
“This is going to be a very slow recovery process,” Wells Fargo’s Bennenbroek said. “Neither the official institutions, nor the private investors, are looking for a strong rebound from the major economies in any near- to medium-term time frame.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Joseph Ciolli in New York at jciolli@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dave Liedtka at dliedtka@bloomberg.net

Monday, November 12, 2012

人民币涨疯了!连续10个涨停创汇改新高(图文

人民币涨疯了!连续10个涨停创汇改新高(图文)
http://www.creaders.net 2012-11-12 13:51:07 万维读者网
  万维读者网记者晓语综合报道:人民币汇率走势近期异常强劲。
据中国外汇交易中心数据,10月12日,人民币对美元中间价大涨92个基点至6.2920,创下近半年来的新高。而即期外汇市场上,人民币对美元汇率更是达到6.2291,开盘即涨停,也创下了1994年汇改以来的新高。
  连续第十个“涨停”
  连续第十个“涨停”这是人民币兑美元即期交易价格11月12日创下的战绩。
  据21世纪经济报道,当日,人民币中间价较前一交易日下跌92个基点至6.2920元,为近半年以来的最高点。开盘不久,人民币即期汇价就触及1%的交易区间上限6.2291,除午后曾短暂打开“涨停板”外,基本全天都封在这一价位附近。
  “从去年9月以来,银行间外汇市场盘中交易与过去相比明显大起大落,阶段性触及跌停和阶段性涨停交替,一方面跟央行逐渐放手有关,另一方面当时市场不成熟,还带有很重的结售汇市场的痕迹。”对外经贸大学金融学院院长丁志杰认为,而当前连续触及涨停的主要因素是交易性因素,是上阶段企业银行推迟结汇增持外汇头寸的结果。

  亦有市场人士指出,人民币这一波上涨亦与中间价的高开密不可分。“中间价开得高,表明人民币升值的信号意义很明显,企业和银行都怕亏损,争着抛美元。”一外汇交易员称。
  上周五的神秘美元买家
  央行干预汇率主要是控制中间价、汇率波幅、买进和卖出美元,而从目前汇率水平来看,并没有超出央行容忍范围,所以干预汇市可能性很小。
  与上一个交易日尾盘曾突现美元买盘令人民币即期汇价脱离“涨停”不同的是,12日,人民币兑美元日内多数时间在突破6.23关口的涨停位置,最终亦在这一价位附近收盘。
  有市场人士认为上一个交易日美元买盘突然涌现是央行入市干预。但一位接近外汇局的人士称,央行有干预汇率能力,主要是控制中间价、汇率波幅、买进和卖出美元,而从目前的人民币汇率水平来看,并没有超出央行的容忍范围,所以干预汇市的可能性很小,“上周五出现大量买家,可能是市场行为。”
  10月长假过后,人民币兑美元中间价便连刷新高,且即期汇价屡屡触及交易区间上限。人民币兑美元即期汇率自7月下旬的年内低点已升值约2.6%,9月以来已升值约2%。
  10月30日以来,人民币兑美元即期汇价更是连续十个交易日在盘中触及“涨停”。11月12日,开盘不久后继续封住“涨停”,且首次突破6.23的整数关口。
  “10月11日开始人民币中间价突然大涨,市场感到意外和恐慌,这种恐慌情绪导致银行被迫抛售美元,但只有抛盘没有买盘,所以很容易就触及涨停。”上述外汇交易员称,中间价释放出的信号比较强烈,一是与历史的比较,10月11日后中间价涨幅较大,人民币升值的信号意义很明显;二是国际上的比较,主要看美元走势,一般美元上涨,包括人民币在内的非美货币会跌,但前一交易日美元大涨,12日人民币中间价也大涨。
  此背景下,企业前期因为对人民币可能会继续贬值或至少不会升值的预期比较一致,囤积了大量美元,现在只能被迫结汇,相当于割肉止损,而以往银行从企业买入美元后一般会持有一段时间博价差收益,现在也是一拿到手就抛售,人民币触及“涨停”随之而来。
  但这会导致市场流动性匮乏,影响到企业的正常结汇,“只有央行入场买美元才能打开涨停,实际上这种情况已经出现过几次。”该交易员表示。
  多重因素支撑人民币走强
  国际金融问题专家赵庆明对中国经济时报记者表示,近期人民币持续走强有多方面的原因:首先是经济基本面走势不错;QE3和美国大选,热钱冲击亚洲和香港,预期会进入内地;之前囤积美元的企业现在大量抛售美元,导致人民币升值。
  “不只是人民币升值,港币和日元等亚洲货币均在升值。”中信银行国际金融市场专家刘维明对表示,人民币走强跟国内经济数据好转、外围对中国经济的看法发生改变,导致资金回流和市场结汇大幅增加。
  此外,据他分析,人民币升值跟QE3的关系比较大,美国QE3的影响不会立竿见影,而且它是持续每月投放400亿美元,这些钱肯定会流向亚洲。“前期持有美元的企业和个人现在抛出美元,大量结汇导致市场大幅波动,再加上资金回流和新的资金流入,人民币面临升值压力。”
  确实,近期外贸数据出现了好转。据海关总署统计,10月份中国出口增长11.6%,贸易顺差扩大至319.9亿美元,创4年来的新高。而9月份贸易顺差也达到276.7亿美元,超出市场预期。
  对外经济贸易大学金融学院院长丁志杰则表示,近期人民币汇率大涨大跌交替,一方面跟央行逐渐放手有关,另一方面跟市场不成熟有关,还带有很重的结售汇市场的痕迹。“我认为,当前连续触及涨停的主要因素是交易性因素,是上个阶段企业银行推迟结汇增持外汇头寸的结果。”
  未来双向波动将加大
  “贸易顺差扩大决定了人民币汇率未来大方向是维持升值趋势。”赵庆明认为,贸易顺差是决定汇率的最重要因素,中国逐季扩大的贸易顺差会强化人民币升值预期。据他预计,今年全年的贸易顺差肯定会超过2000亿美元。另外,港币升值会强化热钱进入中国的预期,这也会导致人民币维持强势。
  但他表示,人民币升值的幅度还要看美元的走势,“如果美元走强,人民币可能会面临贬值,但美国持续宽松政策的话,人民币可能就会升值。随着预期的分化,未来人民币汇率的波动会更加显着。”
  “未来一两个季度,人民币还会走强,但不会再像以前持续升值好几年,未来会有更多不确定性。”刘维明也表示,近期数据的改善,贸易顺差加大、结汇增加和FDI逐渐恢复,直接效应就是改变市场对人民币汇率的预期。
  他同时认为,由于欧美债务危机并未解除,未来经济增长的不稳定性,可能会导致风险反转;而风险反转对中国的外贸和资本流动都会产生显着影响,未来人民币汇率的双向波动性会加大。

U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

The U.S. met 83 percent of its energy needs in the first six months of this year, on track to be the highest annual level since 1991, according to Energy Department data.
U.S. oil output is poised to surpass Saudi Arabia’s in the next decade, making the world’s biggest fuel consumer almost self-reliant and putting it on track to become a net exporter, the International Energy Agency said.
Chart: Saudi Arabia Versus U.S. Crude Production
Growing supplies of crude extracted through new technology including hydraulic fracturing of underground rock formations will transform the U.S. into the largest producer for about five years starting about 2020, the Paris-based adviser to 28 nations said today in its annual World Energy Outlook. The U.S. met 83 percent of its energy needs in the first six months of this year, according to the Energy Department in Washington.
“The IEA outlook feeds into the idea of a shift in the center of influence in the world oil market,” said Gareth Lewis-Davies, an analyst at BNP Paribas SA in London. “Given Saudi Arabia is willing to shift production up and down it will retain a large degree of influence, and remain important as a price-influencer.”
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The U.S., whose crude imports have fallen 11 percent this year, is on track to produce the most oil since 1991, according to Energy Department data. In a year when Iran has threatened to halt oil shipments through the Persian Gulf, the growing output, coupled with a gas-production boom, may help insulate the nation from supply disruptions. President George W. Bush said in his 2006 State of the Union address that the U.S. needed to break its “addiction” to foreign oil.

Oil Prices

West Texas Intermediate crude, the benchmark U.S. grade, has dropped about 13 percent this year to $85.88 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, as stockpiles swelled to a 22-year high. Prices have more than quadrupled in the past decade, reaching as high as $147.27 a barrel in July 2008.
Global demand for oil is projected to rise to 99.7 million barrels a day in 2035, up from 87.4 million last year, according to IEA, which advises industrialized nations including the U.S., Germany and Japan. Today’s report projects trends to 2035.
Saudi Arabia pumped 9.8 million barrels of oil a day last month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. U.S. output was 6.7 million barrels a day in the week ended Nov. 2, according to the Energy Department.
The U.S. will pump 11.1 million barrels of oil a day in 2020 and 10.9 million in 2025, the IEA said. Those figures are 500,000 barrels a day and 100,000 barrels a day higher, respectively, than its forecasts for Saudi Arabia for those years. The desert kingdom becomes the biggest producer again by 2030, pumping 11.4 million barrels a day versus 10.2 million in the U.S.

Overtaking Saudi Arabia

“Around 2017, the U.S. will be the largest oil producer of the world, overtaking Saudi Arabia,” IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol said at a press conference in London today. “This is of course a major development and definitely will have significant implications.”
An oil ministry official based in the Saudi capital Riyadh wasn’t immediately available to comment on the report when contacted by Bloomberg by phone today.
The IEA report described the U.S.’s advancement toward energy self-sufficiency as “a dramatic reversal of the trend seen in most other energy-importing countries.” The country is developing so-called tight oil reserves including the Bakken shale formation, which are extracted by hydraulic fracturing or horizontal drilling.

Iran Ban

The European Union banned oil imports from Iran in July over the nation’s nuclear program, reducing shipments from a country that was until then the second-biggest producer in OPEC.
The IEA’s members will probably pay about $125 a barrel for imported oil by 2035, compared with Brent crude prices near $109 today on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange. The North Sea grade peaked at a record $147.50 a barrel in July 2008 before tumbling to about $46 that December, and has gained in each of the three years since then.
Efforts by global policy makers to promote energy efficiency are “disappointingly slow” and falling short of their economic potential, the agency said. Increased energy- saving measures could cut worldwide oil demand by almost 13 million barrels a day by 2035, or the current combined output of Russia and Norway. Put another way, were efficiency measures suggested by the IEA enacted in full, the increase in world energy demand over the period would be cut in half.

Natural Gas

Natural gas consumption will rise in the forecast period, driven by China, India and the Middle East.
“In the United States, low prices and abundant supply see gas overtake oil around 2030 to become the largest fuel in the energy mix,” according to the report, written by a team of researchers led by Birol.
Iraq will be the biggest contributor to new oil supplies, raising production to 6 million barrels a day by 2020. By 2035, the nation’s output rate will rise to more than 8 million, overtaking Russia to become the world’s second-largest exporter, the IEA said. The country pumped 3.4 million barrels a day last month, making it the second-largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, after Saudi Arabia, according to Bloomberg estimates.
The forecasts for Iraq, a special focus of this year’s IEA outlook, were previously published on Oct. 9.
In emerging nations, government subsidies will continue to spur the use of fossil fuels, even as lower-carbon energy sources become more popular. State subsidies cost $523 billion last year, up almost 30 percent from 2010. Subsidy programs, which remain most prevalent in the Middle East and North Africa, have become more expensive because of higher oil prices, the agency said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Lananh Nguyen in London at lnguyen35@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Stephen Voss at sev@bloomberg.net