Saturday, July 14, 2007

Global booming means global inflation -bubble, watch ahead

--The last global boom was in the 1970s while the world grew at 5.4% average annual rate from 1970 to 1973 vs. a projected 4.9% from 2003 to 2007. --Now GDP is around$36 trillion vs $13 trillion at that time --The last global good time in the 1970s ended in a nasty bout of double-digit inflation, spawning hte worst stock market crash since the Great depreciation. --Skittness over the battered BSC hedge funds and tighenting stds that could clog the PE deal pipeline. --truth is every boom leads to financial execesses that spark its undoing. --the necessary condition for a bubble is a.fundamental economic conditions must look at least excellent - and near perfect is better... yes for Asia and Euro... b.liquidity must be generous in quantity and price: easy to leverage.... yes in U.S thoughts: --rise in global interest rate is another sign of a gloom inflaton. global bubble is building readily. --key question is when will the bubble burst and what will trigger this. I forecast sometime next year at the end of next year when Asia and Euro continue the momentum and U.S recovers its economy to grow at a normal GDP 4% YoY. The trigger is from Asia.

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