Saturday, July 14, 2007
Global booming means global inflation -bubble, watch ahead
--The last global boom was in the 1970s while the world grew at 5.4% average annual rate from 1970 to 1973 vs. a projected 4.9% from 2003 to 2007.
--Now GDP is around$36 trillion vs $13 trillion at that time
--The last global good time in the 1970s ended in a nasty bout of double-digit inflation, spawning hte worst stock market crash since the Great depreciation.
--Skittness over the battered BSC hedge funds and tighenting stds that could clog the PE deal pipeline.
--truth is every boom leads to financial execesses that spark its undoing.
--the necessary condition for a bubble is
a.fundamental economic conditions must look at least excellent - and near perfect is better... yes for Asia and Euro...
b.liquidity must be generous in quantity and price: easy to leverage.... yes in U.S
thoughts:
--rise in global interest rate is another sign of a gloom inflaton. global bubble is building readily.
--key question is when will the bubble burst and what will trigger this. I forecast sometime next year at the end of next year when Asia and Euro continue the momentum and U.S recovers its economy to grow at a normal GDP 4% YoY. The trigger is from Asia.
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