Tuesday, March 3, 2009
Bright spots amid dire market as of March 04 2009
Amid a wave of bad, there are a few spotlights US Market Housing market --Housing rent over mortgage income ratio is approaching normal --Housing inventory has decreased in from November high 11 months to 9.4 months in Dec and 9.6 months in Jan 2009. --In Feb 2009, home construction surged 22% from the previous month following seven consecutive declines. --anecdotes: Moutain House, Cal has seen a resurgence in housing market. Prices has dropped 57% in Cali and listing price is close to offering price and each house has multiple offers. --existing home sales MoM in Feb gained 5.1%, after losing -5.3% in Jan. The inventoray shows stablization. --Houseing price MoM gained 1.7% in January after a long losing streak(at least 12 months) --Pending sales of u.s existing homes in March 09 posted their first back-to-back gain in almost a year. It is considered a leading indicator --Construtction spending unexpectedly rose 0.3% as gains in commercial and government projects pumped a continued slide in homebuilding, ending a six-month slide --S&P/Case-Shiller showed that the decline of prices in US 20 cities slowed in Feb 09 Car Sales ----sales in Mar fell 37% YoY. But annualized sales pace came in at 9.86 mil, higher than Fed 9.1 mill, lower than average 16 mil. The major driver is th sales to car rental companies. Consumers --Consumer spending incrreased 0.6% MoM in January, first increase in 7 months. If the pace is holding up, it will help recover economy. --In line with increased consumer spending, discounters Wal Mart and Costco reported first same-store sales increase in Februray. Luxury and departments stores remain under the water. --Consumers saving rate rose to 5% in January. Retail Sales --retail sales in Feb shows stabilization Demand --Durable goods orders gained 1.4% in Feb, first rise in seven months. Demand for non-defense ex aircrafts gained 6.6% after losign 11.3% in January. --04/02/2009. Feb factor orders increased 1.5% after a six months losing streak. Industry Sales --In March 2009, there are signs of rising sales in seminconductor industry. TI said its orders have increased and Xilinx raised its sales forecast. Industry --in Feb 2009 Advance Retail Sales ex Foods and Auto decreased less for the 1st time in 7 months Inventory --as of March 13 2009. There are signs retailers have cleared their inventories to the point that any pickup in demand will force them to restock. Transpotation and Freight rates --Baltic Dry Index has doubled in Feb and hovered around 2000, implying the gobal demand has recovered partially Commodity --Oil price has increased from 32 to 47; the price of copper and scrap steel have risen, a hint that manfaucturers are buying again. UK Market --April 3rd, A Bank of England survey showed banks are planning to increase lending to British companies -- and households in some cases -- for the first time in more than a year. Meanwhile, house prices logged an unexpected 0.9% rise in March from February, the first such gain since October 2007, according to British mortgage lender Nationwide Building Society.