Monday, March 31, 2008

trading view: Icelandic banks

Glitnir Banki HF --A rating, CDS trading at nearly 1000 bps, stock trading at nearly 17.25, -20% down YTD --strategy: sell 5y cds or sell 5y CDS + short stocks --reasoning: a.even though it has 300 bil ISK bonds and loans due this year, it has enought funding to cushion liquidity: LT bonds increased 300 bill (ISK) in 2007; Customers deposits increased 300 bil (ISK) b.iceland economy is still holding up fine, unemployment rate 1%, 7 year low c.iceland authority will serve as the backstop of the bank

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