Friday, March 7, 2008
Feb Nonfarm Payrolls
--Feb Nonfarm Payrolls dropepd 63k, Jan payroll numbers revised downward to -22k from -16k
--The loss of 63k was highest since 2003
--Manufactuering sector lead the pack, losing 52k aft4r falling 31k in Jan
--Retail sector shed around 40k jobs, reflecting the bleaky condition in consumer spending
--Few sectors' payroll numbers are in the postive territory except Government
--Avg. hourly earnings increased from 17.75 to 17.8, a reflection of increasing inflation
--The only silver lining is that unemployment rate, 4.8%, which is lower than expected 5% and lower than last Monday, 4.9%.
--Nonfarm payroll gives us the latest eveidence that economy is contracting. This will further weigh on the faltering capital market, which has been hammered recently by margin calls of hedge funds such as Carlyle Capital Groups, increasing default risk of municipality such as Jefferson country, Ala and consequent dislocations of muni market.
--The market will tanker further today because of this piece of news. Technically we are not in recession. But in practice, we are, as evidenced in downward trending labor numbers, shrinking consumer spending.
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