Finanacial Market

--------------------------- Market Size ----------------------------------------
World Security Mkt
Size --$360 tril Global debt and equity
--$100 tril Convertible bond
--$400 bil Equity US- 13-14 tril Euro - 13- 14 tril Govtment debt
--10 tril ( 5 tril held by public , 4 tril intragovertment)
--budget for 2008 $1 tril, usually 400 - 500 bil Mortgage
--Total Mortgage Mkt 22 trillion (or 5.4 tril? ) --Outstanding Residentail Mortage market 11.5 tril --Commercial 3.4 tril -----CMBS 800 bil --Agency MBS 4.1 trillion --CMO 19 trillion --subprime mkt: $900 billion --Subprime-mortgage bonds : $600 billion --ABS $2.5 tril --Outstanding MBS mkt 7.5 tril, Agency MBS 4.5 tril CDO Market --US dollar CDO volume currently outstanding is 1.14 trillion --Cash CDO $1 trillion, Synthetic CDO $1.6 tril/ JPM $757 bil --ABS CDOs: $1 trillion CDS Market --gross 55 tril --net 1.5 tril --equal divided by company/individual names bonds, credit indexes like ABX, and structured finance instruments like CDO and CLOs. Treasury --4.8 tril Commercial Paper --1.7 tril Repo --$4.5 trillion Corporate Bonds --Size $6 tril --High Yield: $1 tril Auction Rate Securities $330 bil --Muni $200 to $250 bil --$100 bil Student Loan --$65 bil issued by Closed-end funds CDS market --$62 Trillion Consumer --Consumer Credit $2.5 tril SIV --$400 bil Funds size --Insurance management funds: $16 tril --pension funds: $15 tril --Sovereign wealth funds: $3.7 tril by the end of 2007, $9.3 tril by 2012 --Invsetment companies: $21 tril --Hedge Funds: $1.9 tril a.credit hedge funds 1/3, 750 bil, leveraged 5-10:1 --Money Market Fund: $3.4 trill (842 retail-class shares $1.2 tril, 1,179 institutional-class shares 2.2 tril) Money Market - 3.4 tril Close-end Funds: 200 bil Oil reserve --14 or 15 trillion barrels of oil --consumed 1 tri barrels 2007/8 -- 50 tril US Credit Market debt -- 14.8 tril mortgage ( 11 tril household vs 3.6 commercial ) ---- 4.7 tril Agency and GSE Morgage Pool ---- 3.4 tril Commercial Mortgage ( 2.7 comm vs 0.8 multifamily) hedl by commercial banks and saving loans ---- 3 tril mortgage ABS ( 0.4 tril GSE CMO, 2 tril private label CMO, 0.77 mult family + commerical mortgage) (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/Z1/current/accessible/l126.htm) ---- 3 tril private label mortgage pools held by Savings and Commerical banks (derived) -- 11 tril corporate and foreign bonds -- 7.4 tril GSE backed securities -- 5 tril Treasury -- 2.6 muni -- 2 bank loans -- 2.55 consumer credit

--------------------------------- US Government Stats
--Budget Deficit in 2009 $1.2 bil (10% of GDP)
--Revenue 2.5 bil (20% of GDP) a.> 17% goes to medical payment b.>17% goes to national defense b.17% goes to interest payment US government indebtness in 2008
--11 tril total debt outstanding
--5.3 tril Fannie and Freddie Mac debt and guarantees
--4.7 tril retirement and healthcare liability to fed employees and veterans
--6.5 tril PV of Social Security shortfalls
--32.3 tril PV of Medicare shortfalls
-- -5.2 net of debt held by SS and Medicare
--total 54 tril

----------------------------------- China Market ---------------------------------
--1.2 bill population vs 300 mil in US
--2-3 tril market cap vs $8 tril in US
--1.6 tril GDP
--$60 tril assuming the same GDP per capital as the US

-- Corp Bond
--Outstanding corporate debt in China 1.268 trillion yuan at the end of 2008, up 66% from the previous year. --Corporate bonds account for 8% of China's total outstanding bonds, well below approximately 20% in the U.S in 2007/8.

China A share market- 两市总市值为253157亿元 (3 tril)。流通市值为85566，大概是50%左右 in 2010 in 2010
--IPO or SEO issuance 4000亿元
--Deposits 29 万亿元, GDP 35万亿元
--Fixed Asset Investment 20万亿元 in 2009
--年记，全国商品房销售面积93713万平方米，按平均房屋面积100平米，全国商品房就937万套
开放式股票型基金仓位更是大幅下降4.2个百分点至83%. 三季度末，全部基金手中持有的现金资产为2563.61亿元，环比二季度大幅增加了15.57%。其中，光是华夏、博时、易方达、嘉实和南方这五大基金公司手中持有的现金便达到836.68亿元。
--2009, new home starts 12000 mil M2, home sales 10000 mil M2
2008, new home starts 1000 mil M2, home sales 600 mil M2
2007, new home starts 1000 mil M2, home sales 800 mil M2
--total long term residential loans (mostly in mortgages) 6 tril RMB, 14% of total bank loans

Mutual Funds market size -> 13000亿元 (15% of floating market) 06年前十大券商名称 市场 份额 国泰君安 6.36% 银河证券 6.30% 申银万国 4.47% 国信证券 4.07% 海通证券 3%至4% 广发证券 3%至4% 招商证券 3%至4% 中信建投 3%至4% 光大证券 2%至3% 中信证券 2%至3% 华泰证券 2%至3%
By July 2010
--60 firms
--AUM 2676 bill (where Mutual Funds 2566, QFII 74, Annuity, Segregated 36), Fixed income only 176
--professionals 7500
--



----------------------------------- Historical Crisis --------------------------------
69-71: Wilson President loss in Gold trades
71: Nixon terminate gold exchange window
73: Oil criss, caused by Mid eastern and Arab countries to boycott US's support of Israel
79: Iran Revolution, roiling oil market again
79-81: US fight down inflaiton, which reached 12%
86-96: S&L Crisis
90-99: Japan Banking Crisis a.
1985 - Guang Chuang agreement - yen appreciate from 250 to 200 in 3 months,
1871, 120. b.1987 - Basel agreement, 8% capital is required for international banks (most Japan banks have lower capial rate) c.
1990, Jan 12 - US use Put options again Japan Stock Index d.资产价格下跌造成了1 500万亿日元的财富损失 这个数字还相当于日本三年国内生产总值（GDP）
1998-99: Asian Banking Crisis 2000-2005: Germany suffered the worst recession since WII 08-08: Subprime Crisis