yield curve: recession sign as of 11 19 2007

--For the first time since 2001, yields on Treasuriesmaturing from three months to 10 years are below the federalfunds rate. Five of the past six times that has happened, theeconomy entered a recession, data compiled by Bloomberg show. --Most analysts don't expect a recession. After annual growthof 3.9 percent from July to September, the economy will cool toa 1.5 percent pace this quarter and expand 2 percent in thefirst three months of 2008, according to the median estimate of72 economists surveyed by Bloomberg from Nov. 1 to Nov. 8. TheFed will cut its target to 4.25 percent next quarter and leaveit there through 2008, a separate survey shows.