Monday, November 26, 2007
recession fears weigh heavily on the markets
--The disparity between those two views of the economy -- one growing bleaker, the other remaining sanguine -- stood out starkly last week.
--By itself, the housing slump seems unlikely to choke off U.S. economic growth. Home construction accounts for less than 5% of the nation's gross domestic product. But if banks curb their lending in response to billions of dollars of mortgage-related write-offs, or if consumers cut their spending as home values fall and gasoline prices rise, it could knock the economy out of its delicate balance.
--The outlook for the global economy depends largely on whether the rest of the world -- particularly Europe and Asia -- can pick up the slack. But Europe's outlook is growing cloudy. Interest rates are rising in the markets European banks use to borrow money. And the banks have grown wary of lending to each other because of anxiety about potential losses on investments tied to the U.S. mortgage market.
Sanguine view
--Economists, however, take heart from the U.S. economy's proven ability to withstand shocks, financial and otherwise, something Mr. Bernanke noted earlier this month.
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