Friday, August 3, 2007

commentary on July employment number (quoted from W. cunninghma)

* July nonfarm job growth was +92K vs. expected +127K, with modest downward revison to previous two months, but top-line not as weak as appears. * More important private (non-govt) sector job growth of 120K on trend with year-to-date average, with moderate upward revision to June from +92K to +107K. * Strength in Financial, Business Services, Health & Education, and Leisure, with better-than-expected -2K for Manufacturing. * Continued weakness in Retail, as well as Information, a proxy for technology and Temporary Help, which is viewed as a leading indicator of job demand. * Government job growth reversed strong June gain, which was revised down. * Earnings and hours consistent with moderate tone of report. * Tick up in unemployment rate to 4.6% was actually close to moving to 4.7% on a rounding basis, while household employment continues to be only modest and median duration of unemployment moved up sharply to 8.9 weeks from 8.2 weeks. * YOY% growth in Total Nonfarm and Private Nonfarm job growth at 1.37% and 1.40%, respectively, continue slowing trend of past year for a metric that

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