Friday, August 3, 2007
commentary on July employment number (quoted from W. cunninghma)
* July nonfarm job growth was +92K vs. expected +127K, with modest downward
revison to previous two months, but top-line not as weak as appears.
* More important private (non-govt) sector job growth of 120K on trend with
year-to-date average, with moderate upward revision to June from +92K to +107K.
* Strength in Financial, Business Services, Health & Education, and Leisure,
with better-than-expected -2K for Manufacturing.
* Continued weakness in Retail, as well as Information, a proxy for technology
and Temporary Help, which is viewed as a leading indicator of job demand.
* Government job growth reversed strong June gain, which was revised down.
* Earnings and hours consistent with moderate tone of report.
* Tick up in unemployment rate to 4.6% was actually close to moving to 4.7% on
a rounding basis, while household employment continues to be only modest and
median duration of unemployment moved up sharply to 8.9 weeks from 8.2 weeks.
* YOY% growth in Total Nonfarm and Private Nonfarm job growth at 1.37% and
1.40%, respectively, continue slowing trend of past year for a metric that
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