Tuesday, February 17, 2009
2009-2-13 8:58 经济参考报-刘振冬 央行2月12日公布了1月份信贷数据，当月人民币贷款增加1.62万亿元，同比多增8141亿元，相当于去年全年贷款增量的1/3。专家认为，这种贷款的“井喷”行情难以持续，全年信贷投放将呈前高后低走势。 分部门情况看：居民户贷款增加1214亿元，其中，短期贷款增加621亿元，中长期贷款增加593亿元；非金融性公司及其他部门贷款增加1.5万亿元，其中，短期贷款增加3404亿元，票据融资增加6239亿元，中长期贷款增加5229亿元。 但虽然1月份信贷数据猛增，可并没有从根本上改变银行对实体经济，尤其是对中小企业惜贷的现象。央行统计也显示，在1月份新增的1.5万亿元公司贷款中，票据融资有6239亿元。海通证券宏观经济分析师陈勇表示，在票据融资主体上，基本面较好的大型企业所占比重大幅增加，这意味着，资金状况较好的企业仍然优先得到信贷支持，而资金紧张、经营困难的中小企业资金面难以得到明显改善。 业内专家认为，促使银行大量进行票据贴现的一个重要原因是银行流动性充裕，资金运用压力大，但在当前经济环境下银行对于投放一般贷款还是比较慎重，在短期内无法识别充足的有效贷款的情况下，银行更愿意将资金配置在低风险的票据上。 央行统计还显示，1月末，广义货币供应量(M2)余额49.61万亿元，同比增长18.79%，增幅比上年末高0.97个百分点；狭义货币供应量(M1)余额16.52万亿元，同比增长6.68%，增幅比上年末低2.38个百分点；市场货币流通量(M0)余额4.11万亿元，同比增长12.02%。 Money Supply amount Chg (YoY) Chg(Last Y) M2 49.61 tril +18.79% +0.97% M1 16.52 tril +6.68% -2.38% M0 4.11 tril +12.02% Loan 33.6 tril +19.78% RMB 31.99 tril +21.33% +2.6% RMB inc 1.62 tril +814.1 bil RMB to non fin 1.5 tril Deposits RMB 48.16 tril +22.98% +3.25% RMB Loans Recorded Large Increase in January Money supply grew 18.79%. At end-January 2009, broad money (M2) stood at RMB 49.61 trillion, increasing 18.79% year on year, up 0.97 percentage points from the end of last year. Narrow money (M1) registered RMB 16.52 trillion, rising 6.68% year on year, down 2.38 percentage points from the end of last year. Cash in circulation (M0) grew 12.02% year on year to RMB 4.11 trillion. RMB loans increased 21.33%. At end-January, outstanding RMB and foreign currency loans of financial institutions totaled RMB 33.6 trillion, rising 19.78% year on year. Outstanding RMB loans reached RMB 31.99 trillion, up 21.33% year on year, accelerating by 2.6 percentage points compared with that recorded at the end of last year. In January, RMB loans increased by RMB 1.62 trillion, up RMB 814.1 billion year on year. By sector, loans to households rose by RMB 121.4 billion, with short-term loans and long and medium-term loans increasing by RMB 62.1 billion and 59.3 billion respectively. Loans to non-financial companies and other sectors grew by RMB 1.5 trillion. In breakdown, short-term loans, bill financing and long and medium-term loans increased by RMB 340.4 billion, 623.9 billion and 522.9 billion respectively. At end-January, outstanding foreign currency loans of financial institutions totaled USD 235.1 billion, up 0.09% year on year. Foreign currency loans dropped by USD 8.5 billion in the month, as compared with the USD 17.1 billion rise in the same period last year. RMB deposits grew 22.98%. At end-January, outstanding RMB and foreign currency deposits of financial institutions totaled RMB 49.47 trillion with a year-on-year growth of 22.9%. Outstanding RMB deposits increased 22.98% year on year to RMB 48.16 trillion, 3.25 percentage points higher than the end of last year. RMB deposits registered an increase of RMB 1.51 trillion in the month, up RMB 1.28 trillion year on year. In breakdown, household deposits and fiscal deposits grew by RMB 1.53 trillion and 48.8 billion respectively while deposits of non-financial companies and other sectors were down RMB 91.9 billion. It is necessary to note that in non-financial companies and other sectors, enterprises saw a RMB 75.9 billion increase in their deposits, as compared with the RMB 182.7 billion slide in the same period last year. At end-January, outstanding foreign currency deposits of financial institutions rose 25.91% year on year to USD 191.7 billion. Foreign currency deposits sank by USD 1.1 billion in the month, USD 7.5 billion smaller than the drop in the same period last year. RMB transactions in the inter-bank lending market were brisk and market rates went down. In January 2009, RMB transactions in the inter-bank lending market amounted to RMB 6.87 trillion. The average daily turnover reached RMB 403.9 billion, increasing by 17.4%, or RMB 59.8 billion, year on year. In January, the monthly weighted interest rate for inter-bank lending averaged 0.9%, down 0.34 percentage points from end-2008 and 1.42 percentage points from the same period last year. The monthly weighted interest rate for bond pledged repo averaged 0.9%, down 0.32 percentage points from end-2008 and 1.91 percentage points from the same period last year.