Sunday, January 4, 2009
2009 New Year Address
2008 was a disastrous year for world market. We witnessed global recession triggered by US credit crisis, the disappearance of investment banking business model, the collapse of shadow banking system, one of largest Ponzi schemas, and the collapse of emerging market economy: such as Iceland. On political front, 2008 is watershed for US too. There are a lot of political scandals: Elliot Spitzer, Jone Stevens, and the icon of era Illillos governor Rod Blagojevich. For China, 2008 was a special year too. China hosted its first Olympics in Beijing. The inclusion of China into world summit reckoned China’s emerging power in the world landscape. But China also suffered historic snowstorms and earthquakes. Also, the plummet of China economy dashed the decoupling theory and further weighed on global economies. But we do have silver linings: commodity is cheap, inflation is low, and world central bankers are more responsive to financial crises. More importantly, leadership is more powerful and resolute. With a team of gifted advisors, the US President-elect Obama and Fed are willing to take whatever to contain the severity of the recession. US Government is using unprecedented amount of money to repair company balance sheets. China has also pumped 4 trillion Yuan to prop up the economy. Admittedly, risk still abound: US bailout package may not be big enough to cushion against bank loss and prop up confidence, global protectionism is on the rise and might lead to trading wars and prolong the global recession; Think on the positive side. For me, it is a lifetime learning opportunity. You may say our jobs may be at risk. Yes, but that is some risk we can not easily control. Just focus on what we can: do more and learn more. Let’s hope for the best - “Wait until the sun shines”. Let’s ring in 2009 with this famous song - Wait until the sun shines, Nellie.