Thursday, December 4, 2008

Housing Model

--Existing Home Inventory - 4.2 mil, over 10 months supply --US 300 mil populatin, 150 mil labor force, 6.5% current unemployment, it is expected to rise to 8.5%, 2% increase means around 3 mil labor force will be axed. --Homeowership is above 50% --So 3 mil labor force will probabily bring another 1.5 mil housing units to the market. It will bring house supply to 5.5 mil --Treasury will buy 500 bil, average housing price is around 190,000. So it might help reduce 2.6 mil housing units. --Still nearly 3 mil is left, hgiher than average 2 mil

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