Thursday, September 11, 2008
Credit Calls Summary
Short WM long WB since 07/23/08
equity:
--WM has dropped 40% up to 09/11/08, 50% up tp 09/10/09
--WB has dropped 20% up to 09/11/08, 15% up to 09/10/09
--We profit 20% - 35%
Cash Bonds: 07/23/08 to 09/11/09
--10 y bonds spread narrowed from -600 bps to 1600 bps, profit ~+7%
CDS:
--5y CDS spread narrowed from -500 bps to 2450 bps, profit +20%
--time to close this call
Short AIG since 08/17/2008
-It is a good call, as of 09/11/2008 CDS was trading up-front 12.5% + 5%
-equity dropped 49% in the week of 09/11
--It is time to close this call
But my comment on Lehman in July/08 optimized Lehman.
New calls:
--Long Lehman Bonds or Short CDS on 09/11/08, equity is too risky
--Short 10y TreasurY
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