Friday, September 5, 2008

Employment Numbers in Aug 08

American Labor force sled another 84k workers in August, resulting in a 7 months losing streak. Unemployment figure soared to 6.1% from 5.7% in June, rivaling the 2002 peak.
Scary? yep! I am trying to be a maverick.
The current crisis centers on housing market, which in turn relying on the employment situation. If the employment situation worsenes, housing market will continue to slide. The bulk of house owners, in my proposition, are the 44 million civilians who earns higher degree diplomas, at least bachelor degree. They are the driving force behind housing market.
Admittedly, its unemployment rate is also on the rise and shows no sign of leveling off yet. But it is not that scary in the history context. Its current level is 2.7%. It peaked above 3.1% in 2002 and 1992.
It might presumptous to signal a recession yet. I will continue to monitor the trend.

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