As Pfizer Posts Results, Watch the Wyeth Factor

Drug giant Pfizer reports first-quarter results Tuesday morning, marking the midpoint of the earnings season for America's major pharmaceutical companies. So far, industry results have been mixed -- Merck undershot estimates; Schering-Plough beat. Analysts expect Pfizer will earn about 49 cents a share, 20% below the year-ago effort. Analysts are expected to focus in part on what Pfizer says about drug volumes and additional commentary on the recent agreement to acquire Wyeth. Drug volumes industrywide in March rose 2.3%, according to UBS Securities analyst Roopesh Patel's analysis of IMS Health data. That is well ahead of volume changes generally between 0% to 1% in the past year, though there also were two down months. Pfizer has already told analysts to expect flat volume increases for 2009. The Wyeth merger also pushes Pfizer away from reliance on drugs, one of the budding trends in an industry facing potential government changes that could include price controls. Wyeth provides access to vaccines, nutritionals and other products generally outside those price-control concerns and which, in many cases, are consumer-oriented, meaning they are paid for with cash, not insurance or government reimbursement. Pfizer "is a microcosm of this broader trend," says Leerink Swann analyst Seamus Fernandez. Wyeth "gets Pfizer back into the consumer business," he says, and investors "are going to be listening for anything else the company says about its expectations" from that hookup. Email: tape@wsj.com