Tuesday, July 22, 2008

subprime pool performance update -- Credit Sights

--2005 vintage RMBS (subprime) shows signs of improvement: the number of deliquent mortgaes as a proportion of the origianl trust pool has started o fall; a slowdown in defaults. --2006 and 2007 vintage RMBS also shows signs of stablization in delinquencies, but not in defaults. --2007 mortgages are considerably frothier than those extended in 2006 and 2006. --2007 repesents the lowest in subprime RMBS issuance since 2003 at ~200 bil vs 450 bil in both 2005 and 2006. --key driver for further subprime mortgage defaults is less the nuances of the loans themselves, but hte macroeconomic conditions - unemployement and interest rates faced by the borrowers.

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