Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Outlook of US Economy from JP Morgan Q2 2008 statements
Its Credit Cards services has around 79 bil loans reported in the book in Q2 08, $75 bil loans in Q1 08, $80.5 bil in Q2 07. The nonperforming assets of around $6 mil in Q2 08 and Q1 08, $8 mil in Q2 07. Net charge off is $1064 mil in Q2 08, $989 mil in Q1 08, $741 mil in Q2 07. Net charge off rate is 5.66%, 5.01%, 3.76% in Q2 08, Q1 08, Q2 07 respectively. The pace of increase in Q2 .66%, lower than that in Q1 but higher than Q4 07 and Q3 7, indicating the consumer credit market has yet to bottom out. Similar pattern is also found in consumer item - Consumer (includes RFS and Corporate/Private Equity), whose net charge off rate is 1.81%, 1.5%, 0.57% in Q2 08, Q1 08, Q2 07 respectively. The silver lining is the pace of increase of these credit items in Q2 08 is lower than those in Q1 08. The Q3 08 release and other macoeconomic data in July and August will be critical in concluding whether the credit crisis is bottoming out.