Tuesday, October 30, 2007

UBS Q3 2007

Overall --715 mil, 49 c/share, $1.07 /share last year. Credit Metrics --total writedown 4.7 bil (4.4 securities vs 0.26 bil leveraged loans), 11% equity CDO/VIE securities --gross loss 5.6 bil (net writedown 4.4 bil) FI securities --writedown for subprime assets 1.5 bil - 2 bil francs --subprime exposure at the end of Q3: a.16.8 bil RMBS, b.1.8 CDO, c.20.2 super senior --a.$16.8 bil RMBS subprime (AAA tranche) --b.1.8 bil CDO retained interest after securitization in warehouse lines (dominantly AAA) --c.among 20.2 bil exposure: net writedown 1.65 bil valuation between 0.7 and 1 (AAA tranche) ----3.7 bil high-grade ABS paper ----2.7 bil 12% loss protection ----13.2 bil is mezzanine ABS CDO (5% to 10% not RMBS collateral); 1.65 largely from mezzanine; some writedown 30% --> gross writedown ratio around 12% Leverage loan --gross writedown $400 mil (net writedown 260 mil) on 12.9 bil loans, 3% (less than JPM) Capital adequcy --ALL/NPL: 41 - 48 Capital --Tier 1 ratio 10.2% Evaluation --stock fell 80 centimes to 61.35 frances --5y CDS 41 bps --AA/Aa1: 10y cash 122 bps comments: --mark down less than peers --interest income is raltive stable and trending up

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