Wednesday, October 31, 2007
Countrywide Financial Corp Ex Q4
Morgagae banking segment
revenue: 250 mil
writedown: 400 mil
pre-tax NI: -400 to -600 mil
--net writedown 690, pipeline 41.5 bil
MSRs
retained interest impairment: writedown -30% in Q2, -40% in Q3 to 0.9, at most another 300 mil (-30% writedown)
servicing earnings before valuation of retained interst: 600 mil
impairment of credit sensitive retained interest: -300 mil
pre-tax earning = 300 mil
other drivers:
1.prepayment factor is not high
2.more portfoilio are filing for bankruptcy, driving up servicing fees
Banking
revenue: 550 mil
provision: 256 mil (2x of net charge off)
pre-tax earning : 200 mil
other factors: 100 mil recoery
Capital Mkt
--trading asset valuation writedown -6% (300 mil / 4907 mil)
pretax earning = -100 mil
Insurance
pre tax earning : 100 mil
-----
-200 to 100 mil
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