Friday, May 9, 2008
AIG 01 08 CDS exposure
$469 bil notional exposure
Approximately $335 billion of the $469 billion in notional exposure on AIGFP’s super senior credit default swap portfolio as of March 31, 2008 was written to facilitate regulatory capital relief for financial institutions primarily in Europe. AIG expects that the majority of these transactions will be terminated within the next 12 to 24 months by AIGFP’s counterparties as they implement models compliant with the new Basel II Accord. As of April 30, 2008, $55 billion in notional exposures have either been terminated or are in the process of being terminated at the request of counterparties. In its 2007 Annual Report on Form 10-K, AIG had previously reported that as of February 26, 2008, $54 billion in notional exposures have either been terminated or are in the process of being terminated. AIG has recently refined its approach to estimating its net notional exposures on certain of these transactions that have unique features. The notional exposures on transactions terminated or that were in the process of being terminated as of February 26, 2008 is $46 billion under the refined method. AIGFP was not required to make any payments as part of these terminations and in certain cases was paid a fee upon termination.
In light of this experience to date and after other comprehensive analyses, AIG determined that there was no unrealized market valuation adjustment to be recognized for this regulatory capital relief portfolio for the three months ended March 31, 2008. AIG will continue to assess the valuation of this portfolio and monitor developments in the marketplace. Given the significant deterioration in the global credit markets and the risk that AIGFP’s expectations with respect to the termination of these transactions by its counterparties may not materialize, there can be no assurance that AIG will not recognize unrealized market valuation losses from this portfolio in future periods, and recognition of even a small percentage decline in the fair value of this portfolio could be material to an individual reporting period. These transactions contributed approximately $89 million to AIGFP’s revenues in the three-months ended March 31, 2008. If AIGFP is not successful in replacing the revenues generated by these transactions, AIGFP’s operating results could be materially adversely affected.
$57 billion exposure to super senior CDS
Approximately $57 billion of the $469 billion in notional exposure on AIGFP’s super senior credit default swaps as of March 31, 2008 was written on investment grade corporate debt and CLOs. There is no uniform methodology to estimate the fair value of corporate super senior credit default swaps. AIG estimates the fair value of its corporate credit default swap portfolio by reference to benchmark indices, including the CDX and iTraxx, and third-party prices and collateral calls. AIG believes that its methodology to value the corporate credit default swap portfolio is reasonable, but other market participants use other methodologies and these methodologies may generate materially different fair value estimates. No assurance can be given that the fair value of AIG’s corporate credit default swap portfolio would not change materially if other market indices or pricing sources were used to estimate the fair value of the portfolio.
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