Saturday, April 26, 2008
bottom comparison beteween 1990s and 2008 by buyout firms
Some buyout bigwigs compare the situation with the early 1990s. Then, U.S. credit woes stemmed from a deflating junk-bond bubble, which had fueled a commercial-real-estate boom. The blowup of Drexel Burnham Lambert was an early sign the bottom was approaching. Several regional banks subsequently collapsed. By this analogy, Bear Stearns's meltdown may have marked the beginning of the end of the current credit crunch.
The more-cautious buyout firms may, however, doubt the worst is really over until regional banks start failing. The Federal Reserve's moves to stabilize markets and rescue Bear may prevent that from happening. Investments by private-equity firms such as TPG and Corsair could also shore up some banks. So buyout shops waiting for better deals may miss the boat.
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