U.S. Stocks Fall on Downbeat Economic Data

Orders for U.S. durable goods dropped 1.4% in February

By

Saumya Vaishampayan

Updated March 25, 2015 4:11 p.m. ET

10 COMMENTS

DEVELOPING STORY:
*U.S. Stocks Close Sharply Lower
*DJIA Drops 292.60 (1.6%) To 17718.54; Microsoft, Intel Fall Most
*S&P 500 Falls 30.45 (1.5%) To 2061.05; IT Sector Biggest Decliner
*Nasdaq Composite Tumbles 118.21 (2.4%) To 4876.52
MORE TO FOLLOW
Earlier:
U.S. stocks fell for the third session in a row on Wednesday, further pulling back from records as downbeat economic data raised concerns about U.S. growth.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 254 points, or 1.4%, to 17757. The S&P 500 fell 26 points, or 1.2%, to 2066, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 107 points, or 2.1%, to 4889.
Traders said the surprise decline in durable goods orders set the negative tone for trading, which was dominated by short-term investors. Losses deepened around midday, led by declines in biotechnology and semiconductor stocks. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology exchange-traded fund fell 3.6% and the Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF slumped 4.4%. Biotech stocks have posted strong gains this year, with the ETF up 13%.

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Investors snapped up beaten-up energy stocks as the price of crude oil continued to gain, traders said. Crude-oil futures rallied 3.6% to $49.21 a barrel, gaining for the fourth day in a row. Energy stocks in the S&P 500 rose 1.5%, the only sector to post gains.
“The healthy thing that we are seeing is rotations,” said Darren Wolfberg, head of cash equity trading at BNP Paribas. Earlier, “a lot of guys sold energy and put money in semiconductors and biotech, which had good earnings trajectories,” said Mr. Wolfberg. Now “as crude is turning [higher], people are putting money back into some of these energy names,” he added.
Wednesday’s declines dragged the Dow back into negative territory for the year, down 0.4%. The blue-chip index is 2.9% below its record close of 18288.63.
Orders for durable goods fell 1.4% in February from a month earlier, the latest in a series of economic reports to suggest the economy slowed sharply at the start of the year. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expected orders to rise 0.2%. Durable goods orders for January were weaker than previously reported and a key measure of business investment continued to decline in February. Weak economic reports tend to dim the outlook for corporate profits and stock prices.

Orders for durable goods fell 1.4% in February. Plus three stocks to watch. Photo: Getty

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“The concern about the durable goods orders being down is that the economy is slowing and consumers are spending less,” said Greg Peterson, director of investment research at Ballentine Partners. He added that he doesn’t put too much weight on one report and noted that severe winter weather could have pressured the data.
U.S. growth concerns were evident by heavier selling in small-cap stocks. Those companies’ profits are more closely linked to the health of the U.S. economy than the profits of their larger peers.
The Russell 2000, the benchmark for small-cap stocks, fell 2.1%.
The heightened focus on economic data comes as investors continue to bet on when the Federal Reserve will raise short-term rates. The Fed opened the door to such a move at its latest meeting, but emphasized its policy remains data dependent. And as the debate at the Fed picks up over when to make a move on rates, investors will be more sensitive to data releases, said Erik Wytenus, global investment specialist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank.
“The market is going to be hemming and hawing over each piece of data,” said Mr. Wytenus, adding that he expects stocks to gain this year.
Matt Peron, head of global equity at Northern Trust, which manages $934 billion, said stocks tend to perform well going into and immediately after increases in rates. “Equities generated positive returns in four of the five tightening cycles between 1986 and 2004,” he said.
Mr. Peron said he’s expecting more volatility in stocks as the Fed prepares to raise rates and wouldn’t be surprised by a correction in stocks.

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Ben Lockhart

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Fear Is Saying Short SPY Now

Mar. 25, 2015 3:47 AM ET  |  48 comments  |  About: SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY), Includes: DIA, IWM, QQQ, VIXH, VIXM, VIXX

Disclosure: The author is short SPY. (More...)

Summary

• Fed-induced market volatility has ramped up in the last month or so, and looks set to continue.
• The fear index is giving us a sell signal.
• Investors should be protecting profits, and aggressive traders may like to try a short position.

In my latest weekly gold article I made the point that Fed-induced market volatility appears to be on the horizon, and a number of good trading opportunities should now present themselves.
After the February meeting of the Federal Reserve and subsequent press conference at which they floated the June rate hike balloon, stocks bonds and commodities all declined pretty hard on the day. In the March meeting we had the reverse, with Janet Yellen indicating that the decision to raise the benchmark rate is 'data dependent' and just because they can raise the rate in June doesn't mean they actually will decide to take that action, and market confidence was mostly restored.
Central Bankers the world over are fully aware that the decision to raise rates in the U.S. will no doubt hurt the bond market and Emerging Markets too. At a press conference in India just a few days prior to the Fed meeting, IMF Chief Christine Lagarde said the following:

The danger is that vulnerabilities that build up during a period of very accommodative monetary policy can unwind suddenly when such policy is reversed, creating substantial market volatility... We already got a taste of it during the taper tantrum... I am afraid this may not be a one-off episode. This is so, because the timing of interest rate lift-off and the pace of subsequent rate increases can still surprise markets.

It would appear that the Fed wants to raise rates, but are under pressure from their international colleagues not to act too hastily.
Given the February market reaction to the possibility of a US rate increase, it is fair to assume that investors in the US broad market indices fear this too. When asked on Friday about the possibility of a correction in markets, former Dallas Fed President Richard W. Fischer said:

Are we vulnerable in my personal opinion to a significant equity market correction? I do believe we are, and the reason for that is people have gotten lazy. They've depended totally on the Fed…
Yes, we have… conditioned the markets.

Take the easy money punchbowl away, and it seems that investors lack the confidence to hold their long positions. Any further hint of monetary tightening this week and the 'Fed has our back' mantra is likely to change to one of 'watch your back, jack'.
This week we have already heard from one Fed board member on this topic, and with Janet Yellen speaking in San Francisco on March 27th we have the potential for more volatility and a possible decline in the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) ahead.
Yesterday we heard from Fed Board member James Bullard, who said that he expects U.S. growth to pick up in Q2 and grow at 3%+ this year. An advocate of raising rates slowly, he said:

"Zero is no longer the appropriate interest rate for the U.S. economy."

He then went on to attempt pacification by saying that monetary policy would remain accommodative even if the Fed decided to raise rates this summer. However, you can see where this is leading.
Taking an overview of our current situation, we have a Fed that wants to raise rates and has given us a warning that they could do so anytime from June onwards; we have markets that are obviously sensitive to this topic; and we have everyone else around the world fearing the ramifications of that rate increase and scrambling to position accordingly.
Markets trade in anticipation of future events, so don't expect the market to correct when the rate increase comes - it is more likely to decline in anticipation of that event and start to rally just after the official announcement makes it true.
We have palpable fear in the market place, and now we should be on the lookout for signs that the fear is justified and a correction is looming. The fear index may be warning us now that this call could be a good one.
The VIX to VXV ratio is useful as it gives us perspective on how traders see the next 90 days in the market in terms of volatility. When the ratio moves lower it tells us that traders are less concerned about market volatility over the next 30 days (VIX) than market volatility over the next 90 days (VXV).
However, when the ratio moves sharply lower it often precedes a downturn in the market. In contrarian logic terms, it tells us that traders have become too complacent for the market to reward their bullish positioning.
I have marked occasions where an extreme reading was taken, and have added the S&P 500 for comparison:
(click to enlarge)
The 'extreme zone' is designated by the horizontal red dotted line, and as you can see we don't often see a reading that low. On four of the five occasions this has been seen since late 2010, it has resulted in short-term downside corrective action in the index.
A look at the chart of the S&P 500 itself shows us that we have clear negative divergence in our technical readings, and should already be alert to danger on the long side:
(click to enlarge)
I have started small initial short positions, and will add if we go a little higher and/or if we break initial support. Should the downside projection start to play out I will also look to open a long position in VIX.
I wish you good luck for the coming week!

盖棺定论” 李光耀经济奇迹究竟如何实现的

京港台：2015-3-23 21:08| 来源：凤凰国际iMarkets | 评论( 1 )条  | 我来说几句

“盖棺定论” 李光耀经济奇迹究竟如何实现的 来源：倍可亲(backchina.com) 　　核心提示：新加坡前总理、内阁资政李光耀逝世。无论对于新加坡本国，还是整个华人世界，都是震动性的事件。 近半个世纪以来，被称为“新加坡之父”的李光耀在国人心中的形象一直是复杂的。作为以华人为主的国家新加坡的绝对主宰者，他在国际上力挺中国的言论常让国 人有“毕竟血浓于水”的感叹。相比中国，西方对李光耀的看法更为复杂，一方面敬佩他创造经济奇迹的能力，另一方面又被其铁腕手段威慑，又敬又怕。而彭博最 新的评论代表了西方主流社会对李光耀的看法。 　　彭博今日发表评论文章祭奠李光耀去世，也为这位新加坡的开国元勋“盖棺定论”。以下为评论全文: 　　当历史学家记载亚洲的现代复兴，他们将专注于该地区最大的经济体如中国、日本、印度等国的崛起。但是，如果有“亚洲资本主义”这一说，它的最富智慧的倡导者和最有争议的象征，应该是该地区里最小国家的缔造者——新加坡的李光耀。他于周一去世，享年91岁。 　　几乎没有人会否认，李光耀在他的城邦国实现了一个经济奇迹。这一成功，同他的丰富个性一道，影响了亚洲大国的发展路径。 　　从1960年到2011年，新加坡的人均国内生产总值（GDP）涨幅超过100倍，达到现在的人均55000美元。现在的新加坡，是地球上最先进的经济体之一，以强有力的机构和开放的市场著称，是贪污、任人唯亲和官僚机构普遍存在的东南亚国家中的一片绿洲。 　 　李光耀的一个了不起的洞察，是认识到新加坡于1965年被踢出马来西亚联邦后，必须在强国比邻的环境中，向西方先进经济体和日本出口高端产品。与其他 “亚洲四小龙”一道，新加坡集中精力谋取经济基本面上的权利——鼓励储蓄和投资，保持低通胀、低税率以及稳定汇率，强调高质量的教育。 　　 这已经成为公认的智慧。当时，共产主义运动仍在亚洲享有强大号召力，而李光耀却选择了不一样的道路。 他与左翼解梦，严厉打压新加坡左派。与此同时，印度在尼赫鲁的领导下打压企业并将自己排除在贸易之外。而李光耀认识到，他的选择不是意识形态的问题，而是 简单的实用主义。他喜欢说，测试一个想法的唯一途径是看它的实用性。 　　邓小平在中国推行市场化改革时，采取了与李光耀类似的态度。且不论李光耀在新加坡国内的影响，光凭他启发邓小平改革开放的功绩都使得他留名史册，毕竟改革开放使中国的上亿人口摆脱贫困，创造出人类历史上最伟大的经济扩张。 　　在李光耀看来，政治自由可以等待。他认为，在一个秩序井然的社会里，精英阶层应负责统治，普罗大众则保持顺从。 　　李光耀认为西式民主并不适于发展中国家，他比任何人都更努力地在宣传这一观点。他认为，如果其他国家想要效仿新加坡的经济成就，就必须接受明智、专制的领导。他的论点给中国以鼓励，给诸如印度等难以驾驭的民主国家以质疑自由的理由。 　　李光耀的观点无疑是有说服力的，但最终他的理论仍难以让人信服。儒家价值观被用来解释东亚的崛起，盛极一时，而当时该地区正初遇西方殖民者。西方工业革命之前，也有与儒家倡导的勤奋、节俭、孝顺等一样的价值观。 　　李光耀承认，传统价值观并不能解释成功的所有原因。 “我们下一步到哪里去？如果我们不知道自己要去哪里，我们如何加速到那里去？”20年前，他这样问一个采访者。 　 　李光耀创建的新加坡，仍在继续遏制言论自由，并不让政治对手处于有利地位，还没有开始应对自身正面临的挑战。政府在学校和社会中灌输创造力的努力，都难 见成效。公众对执政的人民行动党不满，在社会收入增长不平等中体现。上一次选举中，人民行动党只赢得了60％的的选票。 　　和新加坡一样，其他的亚洲国家，如中国、越南、马来西亚、泰国，都在努力推动创新，采取更加政治开明的经济发展模式。李光耀确实创造了一个奇迹，在释放该地区的巨大经济潜力功不可没。但这并不等于说，亚洲之旅的下一个阶段不需要新鲜灵感。

阅读详情: http://www.backchina.com/news/2015/03/23/352918.html#ixzz3VDMbz775

指纹识别Out了 这7种新型生物识别系统很抢眼

腾讯数码[微博]Newsboy2015年03月19日07:54

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[摘要]除了苹果Touch ID指纹识别，这里还有超声波读取指纹、虹膜扫描识别、脸部扫描识别器、指纹静脉识别器等7种新型生物识别技术哦。

腾讯数码讯（编译：Newsboy）随着智能手机用户开始在其设备上储存越来越多的敏感数据，生产商也开始探寻新的方法来确保信息安全。苹果在iPhone 5s上推出的指纹识别系统TouchID就向我们展示了一种操作简单的安全识别方法。除了苹果已有的指纹识别系统外，2015年，以下7种新型生物识别技术值得我们关注：

超声波读取指纹

从蝙蝠身上获得灵感，高通Snapdragon Sense ID 3D 指纹技术能够通过超声波技术来读取指纹信息，也就是说，不管你的手指放在手机上的任何位置，这项技术都能通过玻璃显示屏，金属或者塑料外壳来“感知”到你的指纹。设备生产商就无需考虑指纹阅读器在平板电脑或者手机上的位置，这样将会出现构造更为“紧凑”的设备。即使用户手指上有汗或其他液体，Snapdragon Sense ID中的超声波也能够监测到用户指纹，这一点要强于苹果Touch ID指纹识别技术。

目前的指纹技术使用了传感器来进行指纹扫描，但是高通超声波技术即便是在手指遭到“污染”情况下，也能辨识出指纹信息。预期配置高通超声波指纹识别技术的智能手机将在今年下半年问世。

超薄指纹识别传感器

Synaptics 是一家提供笔记本和智能手机显示屏触摸板技术公司。这家公司现在推出了VSF6170 Slim Slide指纹传感器，它能够让智能手机生产商将轻薄的指纹传感器整合至平板电脑或者手机上。

这款体积较小的传感器能够置于电源按钮，音量键，或者手机边框上。Synaptics称，这款超波设计传感器仅有2.8毫米厚。也正是如此， Synaptics传感器需要用户滑动手指，而不像iPhone6 上的Touch ID和Galaxy S6上出现的按压式指纹识别技术。

除此之外，Synaptics称，将其指纹识别扫描器置于手机边框后，还能够让用户更便捷地解锁手机：用户单手持手机，同时只需要滑动手指就可以解锁手机。

目前，Synaptics传感器正在接受智能手机厂商的测试，这家公司预期将在今年晚些时候开始批量生产这种新传感器。

嵌入玻璃中的指纹识别传感器

通常，指纹识别传感器位于显示屏下，但是IDEX推出了一种“植入”玻璃中的传感器。这家公司称，这种设计将提高指纹扫描的准确性，显示屏和指纹扫描器都将成为智能手机设计的一部分。

"最为重要的是，我们这种玻璃内的传感器表现要远胜于位于玻璃下传感器，这种设计能避免“失灵”现象。”IDEX公司CEO Hemant Mardia表示。

为了能够让IDEX 传感器嵌入玻璃中，IDEX表示，玻璃厚度应该在0.5-0.7毫米之间。目前应用在三星最新Galaxy S6和 S6 Edge中的玻璃厚度为0.4毫米，因此IDEX传感器目前还无法在此类设备上使用。

虹膜扫描识别

富士通推出的虹膜扫描技术能够让用户使用眼睛来解锁智能手机。这家公司称，借助红外线扫描器，这项生物识别系统只要求智能手机用户眼球盯着手机显示屏就能解锁手机。

相比较指纹识别，虹膜扫描识别在保护用户敏感数据方面更加可靠。富士通称，当人进入2岁以后，他的虹膜就不会发生太大变化，眼球表面很难受到伤害，也很难被复制，并且这项技术的出错率很低，仅有10万分之一。

此外，对于用户来说，尤其是企业用户，虹膜扫描技术也能带来“益处”。如果你在工厂，医疗机构，或者其他需要让你佩戴手套的场所工作，就现在指纹解锁技术而言，还根本达不到手指隔着手套来解锁设备，但是虹膜扫描就无须担心此问题。

除了能够解锁手机外，富士通公司表示，用户还可以使用这项技术来登陆应用软件或者网站。

此外，这家公司表示，这项技术依赖于红外线和IR摄像头来扫描眼球，因此即便是在黑夜，这项技术也能正常工作。富士通表示，他们的目标是在2015年将虹膜扫描器引入到商业设备中。

脸部扫描识别器

英特True Key 技术使用人脸来进行身份识别。这项技术的工作原因类似于大脑做潜意识的计算来“立刻”监测出这张脸是否是老面孔。英特尔表示，True Key使用面部分析来鉴别每个人所拥有的独一无二脸。

英特尔公司表示，True Key技术借助个人特质（比如脸部特质，指纹或者用户所拥有的设备）来解锁网站，应用软件和设备。这项技术不光能够让用户不用再记密码，同时它也能让用户通过设置多重安全因素来提升安全等级。

True Key是一种兼容多个平台的技术，它支持Windows, Mac, iOS, 安卓， Chrome以及IE。事实上，True Key有点类似密码管理工具LastPass，它能够基于人脸识别来立刻解锁密码。

免费增值版True Key可以让用户免费存储15个密码，高级版订阅费为19.99美元/年，用户可以储存无限量密码。目前，这款软件已经进行测试。

指纹静脉识别器

日立推出了全新指纹静脉传感器VeinID，用户只需要在扫描器上挥挥手臂，或者手指就能获得认证，这项技术在进入飞机场安检区，大型体育场，甚至办公室大门时非常有用。

该系统需要用户提前进行注册，用户在注册完以后，可以通过在扫描器上挥动手臂来加以确认。这套系统能够在一分钟时间内对70个用户进行识别。

跟传统的指纹扫描相比，日立指纹静脉扫描在速度和准确率方面都高出一筹。跟指纹扫描器一样，日立指纹静脉扫描器能够替代密码登陆。这家公司表示，这套系统的出错率在0.0001%左右。

目前，小型版指纹静脉传感器已经应用在PC上。日立VeinID 目前已经被巴克莱银行用来进行安全登陆。大型体育场也将很快使用这项高科技来替代门卡、密码来“放行”。跟指纹静脉传感器相似的就是掌纹静脉传感器，其中典型代表就是PalmSecure，后者已经被富士通应用在部分企业级笔记本上。

心跳识别器

可穿戴设备目前已经成为热议的话题，随着苹果智能手表Apple Watch的到来，主打健康追踪的智能手表也开始火起来，心跳传感器自然也将成为一种非常重要的识别技术。

Bionym推出的Nymi 可穿戴设备能够识别佩戴者独一无二的心跳，并据此来让他们解锁手机或者平板电脑。前提是，用户首先需要戴着可穿戴设备来纪录心率，用于以后的身份识别。

Bionym表示，如果用户心跳由于紧张加快，也无所谓。心跳对一个人来说，是独一无二的， Nymi监测的正是心电图波来识别用户身份。

这项技术目前已经被英国哈利法克斯银行（Halifax Bank）所采用，用于其客户登陆银行账号。

专家称中缅油气管道苦果已现：对缅政局变动战略误判

2013年06月17日 10:08  《财经》杂志 微博

　　重审中缅油气管道

　　讲战略意义不等于可以忽视商业利益，如何能既实现国家战略，又具备商业价值，是这条“中国第四大能源进口通道”的命门

　　没有隆重的剪彩仪式，也没有媒体发布会。6月4日，中石油集团仅在其官网发布了一则600余字的消息：中缅天然气管道缅甸段工程建设全面完成，达到投产试运条件；中缅原油管道缅甸段工程完成94%，投产目标可控。

　　作为中国第四大能源进口战略通道，中缅油气管道缅甸和中国段分别于2010年6月3日和9月10日开工建设。原油管道中国段全长1631公里；天然气管道中国段全长1727公里；缅甸段油气管道并行敷设，全长771公里。正式投运后，该油气管道每年将向中国输送2200万吨原油和120亿立方米天然气。

　　然而，自中缅油气管道动工开始，就遭到缅甸一些非政府组织(NGO)和当地居民强烈反对。这些人多次聚在该管道的起点——缅甸西海岸的皎漂市和马德岛，反对该项目。

　　除了环保方面的指责，NGO和当地居民的另一不满，是项目沿途地区的多数居民未能从油气资源中获益。

　　诸多阻力背后的原因，在于中国对缅政局变动的战略误判。因为对缅战略偏隘地执行“上层路线”，中国企业对缅社会变局和公民诉求缺乏了解，对缅政局走势缺乏准确预判，在缅政局不稳的2007年至2008年，中国企业仍大规模进入缅甸，并在中电投“密松水坝”事件后，坚持扩大投资。

　　如今，苦果已现。

　　中缅油气管道项目，计划总投资为25.4亿美元，其中石油管道投资额为15亿美元，天然气管道投资额为10.4亿美元。但有学者估算，加上在缅甸和云南兴建相关设施、维护等费用后，项目总成本或将高达50亿美元。

　　在高层决策者眼中，这条油气管道肩负着纾解“马六甲困局”的重任。保障能源安全、扩大地缘政治影响，是中国对此投入巨资的战略初衷。

　　但对一个跨境商业项目而言，强调战略意义，并不等同于可无视商业逻辑。没有利润的油气项目，必然丧失可持续发展的基础。

　　来自经济性方面的质疑声已经很多。中缅油气管道如何回收投资？未来作为运营方的中石油集团能盈利吗？其对云南等西南省市的经济拉动有多大？对中国摆脱“马六甲困局”的帮助能有多大？

　　答案似乎并不乐观。因不具备可控、足量的上游资源，中缅油气管道项目将很难满负荷运转；除了前期应对复杂地貌而投入的巨资外，中石油还将面对投运后每年不菲的过境费，这些都对项目盈利性构成挑战。

　　最大的风险是缅甸政局的不确定性。如何既能实现国家战略，又能具备商业价值，成为中缅油气管道的命门。

　　缅甸新局

　　民主化后的缅甸在进行经济与政治改革的路径选择，不确定的前景令中国在缅项目面临挑战

　　仰光街头的外国投资者和外交官们，往往会十分苦恼，因为他们不知道拦下一辆出租车后，应该从哪个方向上车。这里规定车辆靠右行驶，但却有大批来自日本的右舵二手车，亦有诸多来自中国的左舵车，譬如满街跑的奇瑞QQ。

　　中缅油气管道项目，面临着同样的苦恼。缅甸NGO和部分居民的反对，令投资兼运营方的中石油集团非常紧张。

　　中石油集团麾下的“东南亚管道公司”，掌握着中缅油气管道项目50.9%的股份。剩下的49.1%，归缅甸能源部下辖的国有企业——缅甸石油与天然气公司所有。

　　该工程项目，由东南亚管道公司与Shwe共同体负责设计、建设、运营和管理，仅EPC(Engineering、Procurement、Construction)承包商就超过10个，检测承包商4个，监理服务商9个，分别来自中国、缅甸、印度、阿联酋、德国等多个国家，工程之浩大、设计之复杂可见一斑。

　　缅甸NGO和部分居民的反对，令东南亚管道公司和承建商们很尴尬。中缅油气管道，始于缅甸西海岸的若开邦皎漂市，向东北斜穿缅甸全境，从南坎进入中国云南边境口岸瑞丽。

　　从去年6月开始，若开邦不断发生佛教徒与穆斯林的冲突，若冲突持续，油气码头所在的马德岛及附属设施所在的皎漂市，物资供给会受到严重影响。

　　殖民时代之前，若开邦原本是独立于缅甸的一个国家，当地佛教徒更愿意称自己为若开人，并不愿被叫做缅族人。但一位常年往返于缅甸的巴基斯坦裔药品商，却不知这里叫若开邦，在他眼中，这里叫做阿拉贡，主要人口是穆斯林。

　　英国人统治缅甸时，曾把大量孟加拉的罗兴亚穆斯林迁入若开邦。缅甸独立后，当局糟糕的移民管理制度，让人无法确切知道今天这里真实的人口结构。对生存空间的争夺，最终导致去年那场造成100多人死亡的宗教冲突。

　　除了若开邦，中缅油气管道还必须穿越至今仍处在内战中的克钦邦，其政治风险远高于若开邦。

　　与缅甸大部分内陆地区不同，若开邦没有水电资源，只能靠燃油发电、蜡烛照明。皎漂和实兑，说是市，其实就是若开邦最大的两个城镇，黄昏未过，均已是星星点点的烛光。

　　《财经》记者去年实地考察缅甸时，皎漂市发电站管理委员会的Ko Bala曾介绍称，当地每天公共供电8小时，从早5点30分到早8点30分，以及晚6点到晚11点。其中，仅有2小时可享受政府补贴的供电价格，即每度电50缅币(1元人民币约合150缅币)，与缅甸国内有水电的地区无异。但其他6小时，电价则依据市场油价波动，每度电高达500缅币以上。

　　中缅油气管道的“插入”，打破了这一地区的田园风光。工程所过之处，尘土飞扬，路边学校的孩子们咳嗽不已。到了雨季，更是泥泞不堪，在工地上打零工的当地人需要不断搬来砖头和石板垫泥坑，才能保持工程车辆不陷进去，周边村子的村民只能手拎拖鞋光脚挪步。

　　这一切，正是缅甸起飞前的印迹。从经济环境来看，缅甸一切很美妙。南部丰富的油气资源，北部山区丰富的矿产、森林资源，还有在东南亚国家里仅次于柬埔寨的人均水资源，使其孕育着极大的增长潜力。只需复制东南亚“四小龙”和“四小虎”的成功故事，缅甸就可享用经济发展的“后发优势”。

　　2010年11月，缅甸举行多党制大选，军政府将权力移交民主政府。在这场被称为“脱军装”的选举中，前总理吴登盛获选总统，开始大力推动国内民主。他促使昂山素季重获自由，并修改选举条例，为她重返政坛铺平道路；同时，他还对Twitter、Facebook及VOA和YOUTUBE等境外媒体解除封锁。

　　吴登盛还下令，搁置投资巨大的中缅密松水电站合作项目。

　　随着缅甸的转向，这片土地已经成为亚太地缘政治新的角逐场，美国和日本都开始尝试在此深度介入。

　　2012年11月19日，成功连任的美国总统奥巴马成为50多年来第一位访问缅甸的美国总统。奥巴马表示，希望缅甸现在的改革能够巩固，其中包括政治改革、经济改革和民族和解。

　　日本新首相安倍晋三于今年5月24日访问了缅甸。这是自1977年以来，日本首相首访缅甸。安倍称，缅甸既能以低廉的价格组装产品，又能为重振日本经济提供新市场。

　　为此，日本免除了缅甸5000亿日元的巨额债务，且在该国大手笔投资——出资140亿日元帮助解决仰光糟糕的电力供应问题，并将为缅甸各地基础设施建设再投资200亿日元。

　　凭借中缅油气管道在内的中缅合作三大“千亿工程”(以缅币计)，中国在这场角逐中，似乎已经走在了前面。但是，这种局面能否稳固、长久？

　　《人民日报》曾为此刊文，称中国希望看到缅甸政局稳定，社会进步，对缅甸和包括美国在内的西方国家加强接触持欢迎态度，并不担心中国在缅甸外部环境改善后受到排挤。

　　自缅甸政治转型以来，中资企业在缅屡屡受挫，三大“千亿工程”中的密松电站项目和莱比塘铜矿项目接连受到影响。硕果仅存的中缅油气管道，正面临巨大风险——该项目协议是在前军政府时期签署，这不利于中国在缅甸树立发展民生的形象，也容易遭到民众反对。

　　“马六甲困局”

　　中国约有五分之四的进口原油必须途经马六甲海峡，该海域猖獗的海盗和复杂的地缘政治，让中国决策层担忧不已，直接催生了中缅油气管道项目

　　在中缅油气管道项目上，中石油集团既身为中国国家石油公司，又同时在海内外上市，在执行国家战略和维护投资者利益之间，其管理层面临两难。

　　催动该工程上马的最大动因，当属“马六甲困局”。作为石油进口大国，中国目前约有五分之四的进口原油必须途经马六甲海峡，但该海域海盗活动十分猖獗。据统计，全球60%的海盗袭击发生在该区域，严重威胁过往商船。

　　更让决策者担心的，是该地区复杂的地缘政治。中国军事及能源战略专家王海运告诉《财经》记者，马六甲海峡、霍尔木兹海峡、亚丁湾等中国油轮和商船的必经之地，都隐含风险。“现在还仅是海盗，但要看到更深层次的问题。世界主要航道都有美军部署，一旦出现非常事态，要控制中国的石油供应不是太困难的事。”

　　更有中国军事专家大胆假设，国外敌对势力只需在关键时刻假扮海盗袭击中国油轮，就可以令油轮保险急剧上升，从而对油运和到岸时间产生极大影响。

　　据国际能源署估计，如果中国经济增长势头能够继续保持，到2025年中国原油对外依存度将高达82%。

　　基于对“马六甲困局”的担忧，早在本世纪初，中国就开始探求石油进口通道的多元化，并先后在东北、西北方向和东南沿海，分别建成了中俄原油管道、中亚油气管道和海上油气运输三大能源通道。

　　在西南能源通道方面，除中缅管道外，曾讨论或已开始推动的方案还有：从巴基斯坦瓜达尔港直达中国新疆喀什的中巴输油管道方案，从孟加拉国吉大港通往中国西藏的中孟输油管道方案，打通泰国南部克拉地峡、连通印度洋与太平洋的方案等等。其中，中缅油气管道方案被认为最具可行性。

　　缅甸政府顾问吴丹敏在其关于缅甸地缘政治重要性的《中印相会之地》一书中称，中缅管道将是中国“两个海洋”政策的里程碑。

　　在中国一些智库机构看来，中缅油气管道项目对中国的战略意义，可能已超过能源安全范畴，而达到地缘政治的高度。中国正以能源和经济安全为突破口，实施一项庞大的地缘政治战略，该战略的核心即为突破“马六甲困局”，进而获得“印度洋出海口”，以突破美国在太平洋遏制中国的“岛链战略”。

　　这种说法，去年以来急剧升温。2012年1月，美国公布了酝酿七年之久的新军事战略报告。据此报告，美国欲大幅削减全球范围内的军事存在，却唯独要加强在亚太地区的军事存在，成为美国“重返亚太”的标志性事件。

　　始于1957年的日本海上自卫队远洋航海训练，今年的训练舰也将首次停靠缅甸港口。

　　此种态势，令中国有些不安。在多位中国军事和能源战略专家看来，马六甲海峡始终是一条“握在别人手中的能源线”。

　　但是，上述说法也受到多方质疑。

　　长期关注中缅管道项目的中国石油(11.68,0.04,0.34%)大学中国能源战略研究中心研究员马宏认为，如果深入了解缅甸的社会政治局势及其发展趋势，详细考察中国油气进口来源及运输的整体格局，以及中国西南地区的油气加工能力、消费水平、管网建设等因素，就会发现，“中缅油气管道对于破解马六甲困局作用微乎其微，2200万吨的输油量无异于杯水车薪。”

　　“马六甲油运安全受威胁的风险，可能仅有1%，但我们却要花费几十亿美元去修如此大的工程，这划算吗？”国家发改委能源研究所一位专家认为，一旦发生战争，管道也将成为打击目标。

　　油气专家、中国工程院院士童晓光则直言不讳：“建设中缅管线破解马六甲困局，是人为制造的伪命题。”

　　法国地缘政治专家菲利普·赛比耶洛佩兹也在《石油地缘政治》一书中指出，即使东南亚地区向中国南方地区输送油气的计划全部变成现实，也改变不了中国对马六甲海峡的依赖。中国要想真正摆脱这一依赖，就必须建立强大的海军，以提高自己在该地区的政治、经济乃至军事影响力。

　　中石油的算盘

　　作为国家石油公司，中石油在执行国家战略和追求项目经济效益之间面临尴尬。但在中缅油气管道项目上，中石油却早有盘算

　　中缅油气管道虽为打破“马六甲困局”而设，但在中石油企业层面，却有一番经济性考量。

　　中石油过去的炼油能力，主要集中在西北、东北等资源产地，远离主要消费地，形成北油南运、西油东运的格局。

　　历史上，中石化修建了茂昆成品油管道，该管道从广东大型炼厂茂名石化，经柳州、贵阳、安顺再到昆明、玉溪、蒙自和大理，几乎已贯穿整个西南。中石油手虽伸向缅甸，但眼睛却盯在西南地区，企图依靠中缅石油管道及下游配套的炼化厂来布局大西南，与老对手中石化集团争夺地盘。

　　2009年，中石油提出建设东北、西北、东南、西南四个经济带、环渤海经济圈为核心的“四带一圈”布局。按此战略，在2011年3月，中石油与沙特阿美石油公司签署了《云南炼油项目谅解备忘录》和《原油销售协议补充协议》，双方将从资源、加工、销售等方面进行一体化合作；该炼油项目是中缅油气管道的下游配套项目，将填补云贵地区没有炼厂的空白。

　　中缅油气管道中国段，包括天然气管道、原油管道和云南成品油管道。从云南瑞丽58号界碑入境后，油气双管并行敷设至贵州省安顺市分离。此后，原油管道向东北敷设，到达重庆；天然气管道则向东南敷设，至广西贵港，最终与西气东输二线联网。

　　按此规划，经中缅管道输入的原油将输往云南和重庆，中石油将在整个西南兴建昆明炼厂、重庆炼厂、四川南充炼厂和彭州石化，以及一条从宁夏中卫连接至贵州贵阳的中卫贵阳联络管线。中石油意图在西南构建上下游一体化的石化基地，将中石化的先入影响降至最小。

　　与两大国有石油公司“西南争夺战”同时进行的，还有云南和重庆地方政府抢建石化基地、争夺油气资源的博弈。

　　早在2005年底，云南省政府即向国务院提交报告，提出修建中缅石油管线计划。而就在同一年，时任重庆市常务副市长的黄奇帆也公开表示，重庆市政府正联合中石化，向国务院争取建设从缅甸到云南的石油管线，并最终延伸至重庆，为其炼化基地的建设提供原料保障。

　　随后在2006年全国“两会”期间，云南省代表团建议，中缅石油管道应早日开工建设，把云南建成中国新兴石油炼化基地，并列入国家“十一五”规划及国家能源中长期发展规划。一位了解当初详情的云南大学教授向《财经》记者表示，这是云南如此积极推动中缅管道项目的主因。

　　最终，在云南、重庆两地政府与中石油的共同推动下，中缅两国政府在2009年正式签署了《关于建设中缅原油和天然气管道的政府协议》。

　　不确定的前景

　　在项目可研和尽职调查上的粗线条，是一些央企的通病，中缅石油管道项目似乎也未逃脱这一窠臼

　　近期，中缅油气管道配套工程的昆明炼化PX项目，遭到诸多市民和民间环保人士的抵制，进退两难。

　　对中石油而言，更棘手的并不在此——该跨国项目，至今仍没有可控和足量的上游资源保障。

　　中俄、中亚和中哈管道项目，均是从资源国直接引进管道，基本属于“资源国-过境国(中亚)-消费国”的标准跨国管道模式，只要双方都遵照协议，资源就有稳定保障。

　　中缅油气管道不同。在前期的规划中，已经明确油源完全依靠从中东、非洲等地购入，气源也只能部分依靠缅甸境内若开邦沿岸海域的气田。

　　据《财经》记者了解，缅甸目前能供给中国的气量规模仅有每年40亿立方米，目前尚无新气田被发现。这意味着中缅油气管道每年120亿立方米的输气量，有三分之二必须依靠进口LNG(液化天然气)。

　　一些国内学者认为，可将满足该气源的希望，寄托于缅甸的天然气储量。有资料称，缅甸天然气储量丰富，居世界第10位，但开发程度较低。中国工程院院士胡见义不同意此看法，“它并没有传说中的那么多，在世界连第20位都排不上。”

　　在气价方面，如果按亚太市场的JCC价格(日本进口原油综合价格)从中东购买LNG，再按国家发改委规定的天然气价在国内销售，巨额亏本就是必然。

　　在该项目“外购资源(中东、非洲)-过境国(缅甸)-消费国”的模式中，缅甸主要扮演过境国角色。中海油能源研究院首席研究员陈卫东称，“中缅关系再友好，缅甸也只是一个能源通道，无法保障资源的足量和可控。”同时，中方每年还要向缅方支付1360万美元的过境费。据了解，该管道每输送一吨原油，缅方就会有1美元收益。

　　这对中石油回收项目投资显然不利。中石油规划总院一专家介绍，所有管道项目投资的回收仅有一条途径，就是向下游用户收取管输费。按国家主管部门规定，将在8%的基准收益率基础上核定项目管输费。

　　但是，管输成本的多少，和管径、压力以及输送量有直接关系。在前两个要素相同的条件下，管输量越大，每单位石油或天然气的输送成本也就越低。

　　如果最终输送量达到该管道的设计输送量，即每年2200万吨原油和120亿立方米天然气，该项目将实现最大经济性。但若上游资源无法足量与可控，管道便会部分闲置，输送成本将远高于前期按基准收益率核出的管输费，导致项目亏损。

　　对此，中海油一位研究员预言，如果上述情况难以避免，将可能使该项目最终陷入间歇性运营的“鸡肋”境地，甚至变成一条应急性的能源通道——油品紧缺时作为补充和应急，“这种压力是中石油一个企业无法承受的”。

　　除了资源来源、价格难题外，中石油还要面对极高的施工难度，以及未来不可预见的诸多维护成本。

　　据《财经》记者了解，该管道需翻过海拔近5000米的横断山脉，穿过澜沧江，经过大片原始森林，泥石流、山崩等事故时有发生。

　　2004年，云南大学吴磊、李晨阳等学者曾上报国务院一份《关于修建从缅甸实兑到昆明输油管道的建议》。其中，对中缅石油管道的经济可行性，采取了一种依靠运输距离的远近来衡量运输成本的简单方法，即将原油从中东和非洲运输到缅甸实兑港，与通过马六甲海峡运抵广东茂名相比，可节约1200海里－1800海里；而把原油再从实兑港经管道输到昆明，和从茂名用火车运到昆明的成本相差无几。因此，该建议认为中缅管道项目具备经济可行性。

　　此一时，彼一时。当年参与上述建议撰写的一位云南大学学者告诉《财经》记者，当时做项目可行依据的油价、运费以及国际环境、全球能源结构等都已发生巨变，“当年的经济性未必适应今天的情况”。

　　中石油一位从事国际石油贸易的人士则直言不讳：“海运成本，其实比管输成本要低得多，中缅石油管道节省了距离，但并不节省费用。”

　　在项目可研和尽职调查上的粗线条，是一些央企的通病，中缅石油管道项目似乎也未逃脱这一窠臼。

　　这一点，中国企业和西方跨国公司差距巨大。投资前进行环评、社评和冲突评估，是跨国公司的必修课。其中，冲突评估是单独进行的，并有专门的冲突风险管理工具来评估和监测冲突风险。

　　譬如，在缅甸遭遇过同样阻力的，还有国际石油巨头法国道达尔的项目，该项目是从缅甸仰光南部海域修一条天然气管道到泰国。这一项目也曾受到了当地村民和NGO组织的攻击。为此，道达尔组建了专门的公关部门负责企业在当地的形象维护，这种沟通协调已经保持了十几年。

　　道达尔可持续发展与环境管理执行副总裁Manoelle Lepoutre女士告诉《财经》记者，在进入一个国家之前，道达尔会派驻专门人员开展沟通，了解各利益相关方诉求，为项目开展打基础。其所了解的情况会帮助风险评估委员会从政治、经济、环境、社会等各个方面对项目风险做出评估，以便集团管理委员会做出投资判断。

　　进入投资国之后，道达尔即使用风险管理工具，首要的就是“合作伙伴风险管理项目”。该项目让所有道达尔驻项目所在国的人员交流在各个国家的经验，以便全球员工共享。在项目执行过程中，道达尔还会不断进行评估，以确保项目确能让当地人受益和满意。

　　中国商务部跨国公司研究中心研究员蒋介绍称，“国际石油公司的冲突评估细致到什么程度？比如一个地方的示威活动频率是多少，堵路的频率是多少，冲突中的利益相关方之间冲突历史和现状及其与投资项目之间的交互影响等，他们都会有一个投资前的系统评估考量与经营中的实时监控应对，这是比较科学的。”而中国企业在上述方面几乎完全缺失。

　　新形势、新思维

　　“长期以来，我们只关注政府给的government license，而不关注民间社会给的social license，这让我们吃了大亏，中国企业现在应该觉醒了”

　　作为商业项目，中缅油气管道终应回归商业本身。成为一项既有收益，又能促进中缅经济发展的工程，当是该项目最为实际的目标。

　　中缅油气管道最大的不确定性，来自缅甸政局变化。尽管项目尚未受到来自缅方官方的阻力，但密松水电站和莱比塘铜矿两大项目的前车之鉴，还是令许多人心存忧虑。

　　中石油一专家担心，缅甸政局的未来走势将对该项目的建设和运营造成影响，直接关系到投资回收。

　　曾三次赴缅实地调研的蒋向《财经》记者表示，虽然不必对未来过于担忧，但中国的确是时候调整对缅甸投资战略了。

　　运用西方智库机构的调研方法，蒋密集访问了密松电站和中缅油气管道项目的所有利益相关方。蒋发现，缅甸正发生着巨变，之前在军政府压力下被迫签署协议的利益相关方们，原先的态度已彻底改变。

　　2007年至2008年，中国企业开始大规模进入缅甸，而当时西方企业却在大规模从该国撤出。2007年在联合国[微博]安理会上，中国否决了一项不利于缅甸的决议，中国由此获得了“绿色通行证”，从撤出的西方公司手中接过了莱比塘铜矿等大型项目。

　　切身感到缅甸民主化转型这一变化的蒋，在密松事件发生前即向中国有关方面发出过警告，但她的声音，最终被淹没在中国政府与企业的盲目乐观中。

　　密松事件后，蒋提出，应把该事件视为中国海外投资的转折点。她认为中国企业当初制定投资战略时，对缅甸政局变化和未来走势缺乏研判，导致所签订的合同先天不足，从而造成“战略误判”。

　　这一误判的集中表现，正是中国企业在缅甸过于偏重“高层路线”，只和军政府打交道。

　　“中国以前总有一种错误看法，认为凭借地缘政治优势，很多西方跨国公司去不了的地方我们可以去。短期看的确如此，但长期看这种自信靠不住。”蒋称，缅甸就是最好的例子。

　　在中缅管道项目上，中石油并非不重视对缅甸民生与经济发展的助推，用于履行社会责任的巨额“真金白银”，也是实实在在付出。

　　今年5月10日，中缅油气管道一项目负责人在仰光表示，中石油及相关公司已累计向缅甸投入了近2000万美元，援建了43所学校、2所幼儿园、3所医院、21所医疗站及马德岛水库和若开邦输电线路。

　　这些不菲投资并未在缅甸收到预期效果，甚至适得其反——中石油在上述公益项目中仅是出资方，具体操作则由缅甸政府来做，导致大量学校、医院被建在了远离项目途经地的其他城市，而若开邦等深受项目影响的地区，却未得到多少实惠。

　　在缅甸征地时，中石油也遇到类似麻烦。当地农民组织起来游说议员，给中缅管道征地制造障碍，提高要价。一位不愿具名的央企在缅项目主管对《财经》记者抱怨：“以前拿地全靠军政府，现在完全变了，挺头疼。”

　　“长期以来，我们只关注政府给的government license，而不关注民间社会给的social license，这让我们吃了大亏，中国企业现在应该觉醒了。”蒋说，中国应立即改变以往过于依赖缅甸政府官员的“上层路线”，转而大力加强“下层路线”。

　　日本就高明得多。早在西方对缅甸制裁时期的2000年至2002年，缅甸政府就在日本外援机构——日本国际协力机构(JICA)的帮助下，耗时两年对缅甸全境的水电资源及其开发经济性做了普查。按照设想，利用缅甸丰富的水资源，可以村为基础开发小水电，乡村基础用电、乡村加工业及农业机械用电问题会迎刃而解。

　　“当时我们研究过，一个村子可能5万美元就够了，但就是没钱。”缅甸可再生能源协会(Renewable Energy Association Myanmar)主席昂敏(AungMyint)对《财经》记者说，因为这些是经济发展项目而非脱贫项目，并不符合世界银行[微博]或亚洲开发银行的贷款标准。

　　这本该成为中国在缅甸最好的公共外交手段，不料却被东方邻居抢了先机，这让一些中国官员和NGO懊恼不已。

　　一位不愿具名的中石油人士向《财经》记者透露，目前中国也在积极研究如何对缅甸进行系统性的扶贫与经济帮扶项目，从而改善中国在缅形象。

　　王海运认为，中国投资海外能源资源项目时，应更注意方法。“为什么西方说中国是非洲新殖民主义？因为中国在合作中过于看重能源资源，认为拿了资源只需付钱就行了。但按国际公认的看法，拿资源给钱不是互利共赢，拿资源后设法解决其民生问题才是互利共赢，而中国企业恰恰在这方面做得不够。”

　　因此，调整对缅公关思路，是当前的首要问题。在缅中国企业需要在政治风险和经济利益之间寻求新的平衡，学会如何协调民众、政府、反政府武装等各方利益，大幅加强直接针对民间的战略性社会投资和民间公关，以更加开放的政治和商业心态，扩大利益相关者的范围。

　　“既然已经投资，工程也已上马，对现在在缅的中国企业来说，能做的只是类似于亡羊补牢的‘冲突危机管理’。”蒋说。

　　【作者：《财经》记者 李毅 王宇 杨悦 】

中缅石油管道试运营:缅甸战乱元凶浮出水面

发帖人：dream_梦儿 2015-02-04 19:38:35

　　1月30日，缅甸皎漂马德岛。彩绸、礼花、欢呼，伴着缅甸的传统音乐，身着传统服装的民众在现场翩翩起舞。

　　这是中缅原油管道试运行仪式现场，在马德岛泵站控制室前，缅甸能源部长吴泽亚昂、中石油集团总经理廖永远、中国驻缅甸大使杨厚兰和若开邦省长吴貌翁共同转动控制阀门。从“新润洋”油轮卸下的来自中东地区的原油，首次从印度洋登陆缅甸，注入中缅原油管道马德岛首站的储罐内。

　　“这是一个历史性的时刻，必将永载史册。”标志着经过近5年建设的中缅原油管道工程正式运营，每年将有2200万吨原油输入中国。与原油管 道基本并行的天然气管道已于2013年7月28日投产通气。截至今年1月29日早6时，已累计向中国输气40亿立方米。

　　中缅油气管道是中国重要能源保证通 道之一。用网友们的话讲就是突破美国所谓马六甲困局的重大战略性工程。荒漠草从来不信美国有能力封锁马六甲，那意味着中美全面战争。在中国的家门口美国的舰机没有生存的概率。最主要的是安全、快捷、经济。

　　中国高兴，缅甸也将从项目中受益匪浅。首先管道是中石油集团、缅甸国家油气公司共同出资建设，所占股份分别为50.9%和49.1%，收益共享。通过原油管道的原油，在输往中国的同时，也将在管道沿线实现原油下载，供缅甸境内使用造福于缅甸人民。

　　可以想见的是，维护管道需要当地工人，建设石油炼化厂促进当地经济发展和就业。再次缅甸政府也能够长期获取管道过境的费用。用缅甸人的话讲：“非常好啊!不说别的，就从当地人的角度，改善了他们的生活条件，创造了就业机会，这是多大的好事啊!”互利多赢，必将促进中缅两国胞波之谊源远流长。中缅两国人民的大喜事，大喜事，可庆可贺。

　　这对于天天构筑岛链，包围圈的美日们来讲可不是什么好事。凡是中国人民高兴的事必是美日们反对的事。他们是不会给中国发来贺电的，那他们也不会歇着，总会做点什么。前一段时间有点奇怪，缅甸的政府军和果敢同盟军打起来了。什么缅甸果敢同盟军是华人的子弟兵，一直承认中国是自己的祖国!所以果敢同盟军永远不可能与自己的祖国为敌，更不可能破坏祖国的投资项目等论调甚嚣尘上。全然忽视了果敢人全部信奉了天主教，历来是美国培养的走狗，就在战乱之始美国的军方人物还拜访了果敢军的重要头目。

　　假如中国忘记了果敢人已经是缅甸人这一简单事实，贸然干涉缅甸内政岂不成了缅甸内乱的元凶?一面大谈双边友好，一面培养反对派那是美国的做法，损人不利己。所以中国奉行不干涉缅甸内政的外交是正确的。更不能把污水泼到自己头上。缅甸稳定对中国是有利的，缅甸战乱会危及中国油气管道的安全是毫无疑问的。那停建的密松水电站、天天有人闹事的莱比塘铜矿就是因为乱才有了风险。鼓动闹事的那只鸡非常受奥巴马安倍们的欢迎。

　　据说那只鸡已经没有了参选总统的资格，纯粹是只裸鸡。于是美国有给那只鸡找到武装护卫的企图，果敢军就是主力之一。如是看来缅甸内乱的元凶就找到了。就是美国人要缅甸乱，干扰油气管道的正常运营。不论是输入民主，还是支持反对派武装。

　　中缅石油管道是战略性工程事关中国能源安全，是不能出差错的，中国要做的是帮助缅甸实现和平。假如有谁动了油气管道那就和谁过不去，中国有这样的能力。缅甸作为中国的友邦，无论其国内出现了什么状况中国应该多一分耐心和理解。可能会有挫折不会改变中缅友好的大方向。石油管道的的正式运营已经向世界说明缅甸是靠得住的。

　　接下来中缅铁路项目有待尽快开工，有了油气管道的示范效应，两国政府的竭力推进，相信那一天不会远了。毕竟铁路是缅甸的社会公益事业更能促进缅甸的经济发展。中缅合作的大惊喜还在后头，中缅有能力和智慧挫败美日的捣乱行径，把友谊合作共赢之路进行到底，造福两国人民。

Everyone Hates U.S. Stocks

(Bloomberg) -- Not since the year of the credit crisis have the world’s biggest investors had a lower opinion of American equities.
With interest rates poised to rise and Europe ascending, the percentage of global money managers who are underweight American equities is the highest since 2008, a survey by Bank of America Corp. shows. At the same time, clients of exchange-traded funds have pulled about $14 billion from U.S. equities this quarter and added $29 billion to international stocks, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Souring sentiment is a reversal from the last two years, when money flowing to the U.S. was double that going elsewhere. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index trails virtually every developed market in 2015 as accommodative central-bank policy from Europe to Japan lifts valuations and the Fed winds down programs that helped share prices triple since 2009.

“The U.S. stock market was an island of opportunity for a number of years,” Stacey Nutt, chief investment officer who oversees about $4 billion at ClariVest Asset Management LLC in San Diego, California, said by phone. “It has lost that status, not because it’s negative, but because other places around the world have started becoming more attractive.”
The percentage of money managers holding fewer American stocks than the country’s weighting in benchmark indexes exceeds those overweight by 19 percentage points, according to a March 6-12 poll of 207 money managers in Bank of America’s survey released Tuesday. That compared with a net 6 percent overweight in February.

Better Returns

After beating global stocks every year since 2009, the S&P 500 is up 0.7 percent since January, compared with a 2.1 percent advance in the MSCI World ex-USA Index. The U.S. gauge is on pace for the worst quarterly performance compared with the world index since the third period of 2013.
Better returns elsewhere are luring investors away after American stock ETFs attracted nearly $350 billion in the past two years, compared with the $160 billion that flowed to international equities.
Europe, in particular, has gained favor, as the Stoxx Europe 600 Index has rallied 16 percent so far in 2015, with benchmark indexes in Germany, Portugal and Denmark rising more than 20 percent. The gains came as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi introduced a 1.1 trillion-euro ($1.2 trillion) quantitative-easing program aimed at spurring growth and thwarting deflation.
The WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity Fund has absorbed $8.4 billion this quarter, the most among all equity funds. By contrast, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, the biggest ETF tracking the U.S. benchmark gauge, has seen the biggest outflows, with investors withdrawing $31.2 billion.

Mindset Change

A net 35 percent of respondents in Bank of America’s survey picked the U.S. as the worst place to invest in the next 12 months, the most in almost a decade, while the proportion of those favoring Europe jumped to a record 63 percent.
“There has been a mindset change,” Jeffrey Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James Financial Inc., in St. Petersburg, Florida, said by phone. “The crowd now thinks that the quantitative easing program that Draghi has put on is going to do the same as it did here.”
Negative sentiment by fund investors toward U.S. equity markets has been of little consequence for American stocks since the bull market began in 2009. The S&P 500 has risen in five of the last six calendar years, a stretch that encompasses $93 billion in outflows from funds in 2012, when the S&P 500 jumped 13 percent.

Favorably Inclined

Most of the bull-market gains came as individuals plowed money into the fixed-income market after living through the S&P 500’s 57 percent plunge from October 2007 to March 2009. To some investors, skepticism has been the fuel for advances, leaving pools of unconvinced speculators to change their minds and buy as gains snowballed, especially in 2013 and 2014.
Hedge funds have raised their bets against equities, sending a gauge of manager sentiment to the lowest level since October, a survey from Evercore ISI showed. The measure of hedge fund long versus short bets fell to 49.6 in the week ending March 11, from 50.3 the previous week. Its low point in 2014 was reached in October, when the S&P 500 suffered the year’s worst retreat of 7.4 percent from Sept. 18 to Oct. 15.
“I can understand the rationale of being discouraged, thinking the U.S. is not the place to be, but we are still favorably inclined toward the U.S,” Walter Todd, who oversees about $1 billion as chief investment officer for Greenwood, South Carolina-based Greenwood Capital, said by phone.
Relatively higher valuations and a dimmer profit outlook are taking a toll on American stocks. After surging 207 percent during a six-year bull run on the back of Fed stimulus and a doubling in corporate profits, the S&P 500 trades at 18.5 times earnings, near the highest level since 2010. That compares with a multiple of 17 for the MSCI world index.
The proportion of investors in Bank of America’s survey saying U.S. equities are overvalued has reached its highest since May 2000 at a net 23 percent.

‘Europe Better’

Earnings from American companies are forecast to post the first back-to-back profit contractions since 2009 as the dollar’s ascent to highs not seen since the invasion of Iraq hurt sales for firms like Procter & Gamble Co. to Pfizer Inc., analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg show.
By contrast, a net 38 percent of respondents in Bank of America’s survey say that they expect double-digit earnings growth in Europe in the next 12 months.
“It’s U.S. good, Europe better,” John Manley, who helps oversee about $233 billion as chief equity strategist for Wells Fargo Funds Management in New York, said by telephone. “I wouldn’t say anything bad about the U.S. at this point. If I were pushed, I’d lean toward Europe in the next two years but it wouldn’t be any more than a shallow lean.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Lu Wang in New York at lwang8@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeff Sutherland at jsutherlan13@bloomberg.net Jeremy Herron

Surprise: U.S. Economic Data Have Been the World's Most Disappointing

It's not only the just-released University of Michigan consumer confidence report and February retail sales on Thursday that surprised economists and investors with another dose of underwhelming news. Overall, U.S. economic data have been falling short of prognosticators' expectations by the most in six years.
The Bloomberg ECO U.S. Surprise Index, which measures whether data beat or miss forecasts, fell to the lowest since 2009, when the nation was in the deepest recession since the Great Depression.

There's been one notable exception to the gloom, and it's a big one: payrolls. The economy added 295,000 jobs in February and 1.3 million over four months, a reflection of a healthier labor market in which the unemployment rate has fallen to the lowest in almost seven years.

Most everything else? Blah.
This month alone, personal income and spending, manufacturing as measured by the Institute for Supply Management, auto sales, factory orders, and retail sales have all come in a bit weak.
Citigroup keeps economic surprise indexes for the world, and its scoreboard shows the U.S. is most disappointing relative to consensus forecasts, with Latin America and Canada next, as of March 12. Emerging markets were supposed to be hurt by falling oil prices but are now delivering positive surprises. U.S. policymakers frequently talk about weakness in Europe and China, though both are exceeding expectations.
And there's one rub. The surprise shortfall in the U.S. doesn't necessarily mean the world's largest economy is in dire straights. It's just falling short of some perhaps overly elevated expectations.

Where are the data beating economists' forecasts most consistently? Sweden.
Jack Ablin, chief investment officer of BMO Private Bank in Chicago, said he pays attention to the surprise indexes as a way to gauge when a particular national economy may be turning and looks for good value in equities.
"It is an early indication of a momentum shift," he said, adding that he's been raising the amount of money put into international stocks. While Ablin expects moderate U.S. growth, he said a strong U.S. dollar has the potential to dampen the expansion.
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen gave no hint of concern in recent congressional testimony, where she cited an "overall improvement in the U.S. economy and the U.S. economic outlook," boosted by lower oil prices.
The data slump may give the Federal Open Market Committee reason to wait before raising rates, said Jonathan Wright, a professor at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore who worked at the Fed’s division of monetary affairs from 2004 until 2008.
First-quarter U.S. growth forecasts continue to be cut, and like last year, weather is getting a share of the blame.
JPMorgan Chase's Michael Feroli cut his forecast to 2 percent from 2.5 percent on March 6. Barclays Capital has reduced its estimate to 1.5 percent as of March 12. Macroeconomic Advisers' tracking forecast was lowered to 1.7 percent on March 12.

俄罗斯经济有多糟：与华尔街匹敌金融中心冷清一片

俄罗斯经济有多糟：与华尔街匹敌金融中心冷清一片

文章来源: 国际金融报 于 2015-03-08 20:54:46 - 新闻取自各大新闻媒体，新闻内容并不代表本网立场！

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没有一个地方比莫斯科市金融区更能真真切切感受到俄罗斯经济萧条的现状。位于莫斯科河畔的金融中心原本是要与华尔街匹敌的，如今却冷清一片，根本无法与俄 政府的国际身份相匹配。有人曾感慨称，军事力量强大的俄罗斯，如果能在金融领域与纽约并驾齐驱，那一定是再完美不过的事。然而，这一切的梦想最终还是被西 方制裁和俄国内的政治形势破碎了，莫斯科的金融环境正变得越来越差。

金融城闲置

放眼望去，金融中心“莫斯科城”（Moscow City）的地表上到处是光彩熠熠的高大建筑物，玻璃反射的光芒甚至亮得有些吓人。走近一看，这里的大部分建筑物都被空置着，原本被吸引来的跨国公司、银行和律所被迫放弃运营。很难想象这些工程浪费了多少资金，而随着西方制裁的加剧，这里的空置率将长期居高不下。

莫斯科拥有欧洲最高的建筑，水银城市大厦在建造之初就宣布会超过伦敦碎片大厦成为欧洲之最，且按照俄政府的规划，作为新兴金融中心的莫斯科城，至少要有8座摩天大楼崛地而起，这些工程原计划要在2016年完工。可如今，已经建成的大厦约一半都处于空置状态。

房地产基金管理公司黑木资本（Blackwood Capital）统计称，莫斯科金融区45%的建筑物处于空置状态，其中1/3是近几个月才闲置的。不过，这还不是最糟糕的时期，因为许多办公大楼还在建造当中，建成后预计空置率只升不降。

花费人力财力建造的金融城难以发挥效用，这让俄罗斯政府也很无奈。据悉，为了建设新金融区，俄政府斥资120亿美元打造8座高楼，预计在今年内，包括金色 “水银大厦”在内的6座商业大厦将完工并投入使用，明年剩余的两座也会完工，但经济困境让表面光鲜亮丽的莫斯科金融城显得极为尴尬。

经济危机对金融中心的冲击可谓最大。快速贬值的卢布和下滑严重的油价几乎把俄罗斯银行业击垮了，俄罗斯最大的国有金融机构俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行 （Sberbank）和俄罗斯外贸银行（VTB）都在莫斯科城拥有自己的大厦或办公楼层。在西方连番金融制裁下，这两家银行目前在国际市场上发行债券的能 力有限，制约了其在莫斯科金融中心的发展规模。

闲置的不光是高楼大厦，莫斯科的金融中心国际化步伐也戛然而止。自上世纪90年代开始，俄罗斯就在计划建设莫斯科国际金融中心，但是第一座建筑直到 2001年才建成，如今造次遭遇停滞，使得金融中心建设一波三折。美国媒体报道称，莫斯科金融中心很难国际化，因为58%的新入驻企业不是金融机构，大多 是当地的中小企业，其中从事餐饮和旅馆服务者居多。而无论是已建成的还是正在建设的高楼都不是为私营企业、银行家、律师和投资客准备的，因为在俄罗斯，前 十大公司81%的股份股东都是政府主导，自由化程度并不高。

金融环境持续恶化

今年2月27日，素有俄罗斯的“约翰·肯尼迪”之称的俄反对派最高领导人之一鲍里斯·涅姆佐夫在莫斯科市中心被枪杀，其盟友称他的遇害是一起政治谋杀，而 克里姆林宫则将此视为挑衅和以栽赃俄罗斯政府为目的的骗局。这场谋杀不仅把普京再次推上了风口浪尖，也把俄罗斯金融逼上了绝境。

《国际金融报》记者最近与一些商人和投资者交谈时发现，谋杀反对党领袖事件将进一步恶化俄罗斯原本就脆弱的投资环境。原本西方制裁和经济衰退已经让俄罗斯的投资大环境节节败退，再加上政治谋杀，这些因素都在进一步加剧市场的不确定性。

西方制裁已经导致卢布贬值一半，受刺杀事件影响，卢布还在进一步下跌，毫无疑问，2015年卢布会继续贬值之路。有媒体评论称，以普京的强硬态度和奥巴马的坚定信念，2015年注定还会是动荡的一年，没有硝烟的战争最后结果很可能是两败俱伤。

“我们已经经历了一段时间的不确定性，而这次刺杀事件创造了更多不确定性，而这些不确定性就是投资的最大杀手。”莫斯科交易所风险管理委员会前主席、甲骨 文资本集团财务顾问董事马丁·格雷厄姆表示。涅姆佐夫被谋杀后，许多人都担心类似的暗杀今后在俄罗斯将变得很普遍，这直接增加了社会动荡的可能性。

极高的支持率以及对经济增长的承诺，使得普京总统一度受到了投资者的追捧，但是现在克里姆林宫与克里米亚的关系恶化，使得商业界对普京的未来执政也画上了 问号。有评论称，哪怕涅姆佐夫所代表的政治理念和政治力量已经对俄罗斯政治的长期走向没有实质影响，他的死仍然是当下俄罗斯“仇恨社会”最残酷的写照。

被谋杀的涅姆佐夫曾在普京前任叶利钦的政府中担任副总理，后来长期担任俄罗斯反对派领导人，他与普京的关系一直不和，其死亡原因成谜也直接影响着普京的声 誉。枪击案发生时，涅姆佐夫正走在克里姆林宫正南面莫斯科河中的一座桥上，一辆轿车经过现场，车上有人用手枪向他开了七八枪，致其死亡。俄罗斯媒体报道 称， 凶手或为乌克兰情报机关雇佣的车臣武装分子，以此破坏俄罗斯政治局势稳定。也有猜测称凶手可能包括伊斯兰极端力量、俄罗斯内部支持乌克兰战争的极端派别、 西方国家、宗教势力等。

在遇害前夕，涅姆佐夫还在筹备一场反对俄罗斯对乌开战的大规模游行，他生前在接受媒体采访时还曾透露自己担心会被普京干掉。乍看上去，普京摆脱不了嫌疑， 事实上，涅姆佐夫被刺杀，不管对哪一派而言，暗杀事件对所有人都可能带来巨大威胁，是严重的社会分歧和混乱以及不择手段政治行为的进一步蔓延。

但这次谋杀成功地把舆论焦点从乌克兰危机转移到俄罗斯国内事务上来。一年前普京强硬处理克里米亚问题时，他的支持率一举超过80%，且此后一直停留在历史 高位。但随着俄罗斯经济步入衰退，俄罗斯人收入的一半均用于食品购买，高通胀使得人们对普京的能力产生质疑，可以说，西方制裁的初步目的已达到。

涅姆佐夫被谋杀之所以在俄社会引发争议，主要是他在上世纪90年代俄整体经济非常困难的背景下担任诺夫哥罗德州长期间，成功避免地方企业的大规模破产，保 证工人能够正常拿到工资，并有效推动中小企业发展，还冒着重大政治风险允许农地在公开市场上自由交易的功绩息息相关。在当时的背景下，他是家喻户晓的政治 新星，1997年他被叶利钦任命为俄政府副总理，负责住房、社会福利、电力能源和反垄断领域。因为这些功绩，涅姆佐夫一度被视为是叶利钦退位后的接班人， 但1998年金融危机彻底击溃了这种可能。

分析人士称，这次暗杀最令人担忧的不是涅姆佐夫遇害的细节本身，而是这个事件在今后将如何进一步发展。如果不把凶案查得水落石出，原本就在风口浪尖的普京 处境会更糟。而内政隐患不除，俄罗斯政府在处理乌克兰问题上就难以施展拳脚。因此，调查涅姆佐夫案无疑是摆在普京面前的头等大事。《莫斯科时报》评论称， 这次谋杀进一步恶化了俄罗斯与西方的关系，可能会引发新一轮制裁，美国美林银行分析师也警告投资者称，如果调查结果不透明，新一轮强制制裁将来临。

媒体新闻评论称，暗杀涅姆佐夫事件的示范效应和重要性可以与2000年普京上台、2003年的尤科斯事件相比，注定将成为俄罗斯国内政治的一个分水岭。这 既不是因为涅姆佐夫本人是多么重要的一个人物，或者他代表了怎样高尚或者有效的政治理念，而是在这个节点这个事件将注定被俄罗斯政治社会里的各个团队、各 种力量积极使用，由此激发新一轮的政治动荡和重组。

涅姆佐夫遇害最合理视角是将其视为目前俄罗斯社会内部仇恨气氛不断积累的一个逻辑延伸。一位此前在莫斯科工作的银行人士对本报记者表示，这次暗杀事件让很 多商业人士很紧张，因为莫斯科的安全出现漏洞，不光是政治家，成功商业人士也成了袭击对象，投资者一向对恐惧情绪很敏感，这次暗杀事件让很多人处于惊弓之 鸟的状态，他们会快速逃离这一地区。

资本外流严重

金融环境恶化，导致俄罗斯资金短缺问题进一步加重。俄罗斯财政部长安顿·谢鲁阿诺夫（Anton Siluanov）3月3日表示，以美元计算的该国外汇储备规模在2月下降接近10%，遭重创的主要原因是政府从一个应急主权财富基金中支取了部分用于填补预算缺口。

一年来，俄罗斯的政府收入因为原油价格的下跌而明显减少。俄罗斯政府所设立的这个国家福祉基金用于在原油和天然气价格下跌时候支持俄罗斯公共开支，基金持 有美元，欧元以及英镑。根据财政部的数据，基金规模在2月时候由850.9亿美元减少到770.5亿美元。财政部声明也指出，如果以卢布计算的话，这个基 金的规模在2月份缩水近20%。俄罗斯政府在过去一个月中从这个基金支取5000亿卢布（80亿美元）用于支持预算，政府还计划在大部分公共开支领域进行 约10%的缩减。

经济危机加金融动荡，都加剧了资本外套逃的速度。安顿·谢鲁阿诺夫近日表示，2015年从俄罗斯外逃的资本规模可能达到900亿美元到1000亿美元，其 中第一季度中的外流资金规模是300亿美元左右。而根据俄罗斯央行的数据，2014年全年有1515亿美元资金流出俄罗斯，相当于之前一年的2.5倍，主 要是因为西方国家对俄罗斯的制裁措施，限制了该国通过外国市场融资的能力，以及造成了投资者信心的恶化。

面对复杂形势，俄罗斯经济发展部宣布，将从3月1日起将石油出口税从每吨112.9美元下调至每吨105.8美元，降幅约为6.2%。这是俄罗斯连续第三 个月下调石油出口税。舆论分析称，此次俄下调石油出口税有利于降低俄财政收入对石油出口的依赖和国际油价对其财政的影响。根据新的关税计算公式，液化气和 产自东西伯利亚、里海等地的原油出口税将保持为零，重油出口税从14.2美元/吨降至13.3美元/吨，轻油出口税从54.1美元/吨降至50.7美元 /吨，商品汽油出口税从88美元/吨降至82.5美元/吨。

俄罗斯最大民营石油公司Lukoil高层近日也表示，因低油价和西方制裁导致企业减少在西伯利亚的钻井作业，未来两年内，俄罗斯石油产量将每日减少80万桶。Lukoil副总裁佛顿还表示，由于近期税制调整，他预计未来几年内该国加工油品也将出现类似程度的降幅。

还能撑一年？

很多人都说俄罗斯经济如履薄冰，预计今年GDP会缩水5%以上，通胀率高达15%，卢布贬值幅度依旧很大，消费和商业信心也会持续下滑，企业退出欧美金融市场的数量会进一步增加，而国际油价今年的涨幅也很有限。在如此背景下，俄罗斯经济能避免崩溃危机吗？

为了应对危机，俄不惜用外汇储备补充预算缺口，拯救陷入困境的企业和银行。MNI指标首席经济学家菲利普·乌葛劳认为，俄罗斯经济最长只能撑12个月，如 果西方制裁不宽松，俄外汇储备在6个月后会枯竭，届时经济危机将全面爆发。也有经济学家认为，凭借当前的外汇储备量，即使油价维持在当前低位水平不变，且 与乌克兰冲突不断，俄经济至少还能支撑两年。

彭博社3月3日公布的“2015年痛苦指数”（misery index for 2015）显示，俄罗斯是全球第七惨经济体。该痛苦指数的衡量标准主要是通胀指数和失业率。俄罗斯的痛苦指数为20%，主要是该国的通胀率在西方制裁下翻 倍至15%，而油价下滑50%影响了俄出口贸易额等，诸多原因影响下，这是俄罗斯首次进入前十大最悲惨国家行列，而乌克兰的悲惨程度比俄罗斯更高。

克里姆林宫其实已经感觉到了经济寒流的到来。2月底，普京决定为克里姆林宫政要减薪10%，这一决定已经告知俄罗斯安全委员会成员。虽然政府没有说明减薪 的具体原因，但从俄罗斯目前经济现状可以猜想，俄政府这是准备“勒紧裤腰带”过日子了。据悉，此次减薪或将涉及总理、议会上下两院主席、外长、防长、内务 部长等多名政府高官。

俄罗斯央行近日公布的调查数据表明，越来越多的俄罗斯老百姓对“国内经济发展不足、受世界经济制约”的状态表示不满，认为“国家工业发展落后”、“自主产品微弱”、“市场缺乏控制”的局面应当得到修正。

通货膨胀是俄罗斯老百姓目前最为担忧的问题，政府也认为卢布汇率若持续下跌，物价必然大幅提升。为应对严峻的经济形势，俄政府在今年1月底就已发布了旨在 保障经济稳步发展和社会稳定的2015至2016年度支持俄罗斯经济的“反危机计划”，并采取一系列措施，加强经济结构调整，保障“关键领域支柱性机构” 的正常运作，减少通货膨胀及减轻重要商品和服务价格上涨给低收入家庭带来的影响，保持经济增长速度及宏观经济稳定。其中，这份“反危机计划”的一项重要内 容是将2015年俄联邦预算支出的多数项目缩减10%。

值得一提的是，俄议会和政府机构在落实“反危机计划”方面正在加大力度。在俄政府宣布缩减10%的政府行政开支前一天，俄议会下院已经表示准备把议员收入缩减10%。

不过，据路透社的估算，俄罗斯的储备基金规模目前约为850亿美元，动用500多亿美元的额度意味着俄政府将在一年时间内花掉超过一半的储备基金。包括穆迪在内的国际评级机构对俄罗斯政府能否渡过难关表示怀疑，甚至认为2015年俄罗斯经济将面临全面衰退。

引伊斯兰金融救命

《国际金融报》记者了解到，在西方的金融和经济封锁政策下，融资困难的俄罗斯银行业开始将注意力放在了吸引阿拉伯资本上，希望能通过此种方式解决本地企业资金匮乏的问题。

分析师对本报记者表示，俄罗斯的伊斯兰银行业仍处于起步阶段，该国共有2000万穆斯林人口，潜在资金来源还很有限，除非他们能吸引到现金丰富的海外伊斯 兰基金，否则这笔资金也是杯水车薪。俄罗斯联邦中的穆斯林人口大多在鞑靼斯坦共和国，主要位于伏尔加地区，那里早在2011年就开始吸引伊斯兰外国资本。

伊斯兰教禁止利息，而伊斯兰债券并非像传统债券那样建立在债权基础上。事实上，购买伊斯兰债券即可获得某一实物资产如土地或建筑物的部分所有权，从而确保投资者获得该资产所产生的一部分利润。

在过去几年里，伊斯兰金融已经成为一些政府和企业的主流资金来源，即使是非穆斯林国家如英国和南非，它们都在去年发行了一定数量的伊斯兰债券。然而，欧盟 和美国正在寻求削减俄罗斯企业的海外资金来源，中东和东南亚等主要市场的许多银行目前对西方制裁俄罗斯的问题比较谨慎，所以，俄罗斯的这一募资途径很可能 受到制约。

有趣的是，俄罗斯众多银行现在都在想方设法培养自己的国内伊斯兰金融人才，国家开发银行是美欧锁定的制裁对象，为了突围资金困境，该行向一些中东公司寻求 帮助，发展自己的伊斯兰金融专业人才，他们希望通过多元化金融工具来走出困境。VTB银行是俄罗斯第二大银行，也是被制裁的对象，该行目前正在为一些客户 探索伊斯兰债券交易。尽管转账交易被封锁，但是亚洲市场对该债券日益增长的兴趣激发了俄罗斯银行业的信心。

就在去年底，俄罗斯大部分银行都参加了海湾地区举办的贸易论坛，其中发展伊斯兰金融特色的讨论最激烈。俄罗斯国家评级机构还与巴林的伊斯兰国际评级机构签署了协议，共同为伊斯兰金融产品评级做担保。

目前存在的一个问题是，俄罗斯对伊斯兰金融缺乏监管框架，不管是债券发行者还是购买者都非常依赖清晰的规则，因为只有这样才能减少风险和成本。去年10月 份，俄罗斯银行联盟要求央行帮助发展伊斯兰金融，希望出台一种特别的联邦法律来进行监管，但迄今为止，还没有起草任何新规。俄央行表示，会借鉴前苏联加盟 共和国阿塞拜疆、吉尔吉斯斯坦和哈萨克斯坦的伊斯兰银行治理经验来起草新规。

当前的状况是，即使没有监管框架，俄罗斯银行业也出现了一些小规模的伊斯兰金融交易，资产规模排名第18位的AK BARS 银行自2011年开始已经完成了1.6亿美元伊斯兰金融贷款交易，该行表示会继续扩大交易。对俄罗斯当地很多缺钱的公司而言，伊斯兰债券在基准利率方面可 能存在优势。阿塞拜疆最大的银行已经计划建立独立的伊斯兰金融部门，希望寻找到跨区域商业合作，其中也包括获得俄政府的项目补助。外媒还报道称，俄罗斯最 近与埃及的关系越来越亲密，两国防长已经决定扩大军方合作。

Is crowdfunding legal?

May 26, 2012

Below is an article that I wrote for Business Law Today, a publication for the American Bar Association’s Business Law Section.
Crowdfunding: Its Practical Effect May Be Unclear Until SEC Rulemaking is Complete
President Obama signed the Jumpstart Our Business Startups Act (known as the JOBS Act) into law on April 5, 2012. One highly anticipated provision of the JOBS Act, Title III, is entitled ”Capital Raising Online While Deterring Fraud and Unethical Non-Disclosure Act of 2012” or the ”CROWDFUND Act.” Title III enables “crowdfunding,” or the ability to sell securities in small amounts to a large number of investors.
Whether or not the crowdfunding provisions will have a significant impact on small business fundraising is yet to be determined. Despite the buzz among entrepreneur communities, various restrictions may make crowdfunding impractical for companies raising money and the intermediaries that facilitate the process. Most importantly, the crowdfunding provisions of the JOBS Act are not yet effective. On April 23, 2012, the SEC published guidance reminding issuers that “any offers or sale of securities purporting to rely on the crowdfunding exemption would be unlawful under federal securities laws” until the SEC adopts new rules.
Crowdfunding Prior to the JOBS Act
Crowdfunding is not a new concept. The Internet has made it easier for individuals and organizations to raise money for charitable purposes, political campaigns, artists seeking support from fans and various other projects. In 2005, Kiva launched a micro-finance platform that allows people to lend small amounts of money to entrepreneurs in developing areas. This lending model was further refined, and peer-to-peer lending companies like Prosper emerged in 2006 and Lending Club emerged in 2007. More recently, companies like Kickstarter have emerged to enable the public to fund creative projects ranging from independent films, video games, and food projects.
Prior to the JOBS Act, crowdfunding suffered from some several legal limitations. First, crowdfunding involving the sale of securities triggers the prohibitively expensive registration requirements of the Securities Act of 1933, as generally no exemptions are available in many crowdfunding models. Second, websites that facilitate crowdfunding may be subject to regulation as brokers.
As a result, current crowdfunding platforms have generally developed business models designed to avoid characterization as a sale of a security. Some companies utilize pure donation models. Companies like Kiva that provide micro-loans without interest and do not take commissions are arguably not offering securities because there is no expectation of profit on the part of the investors. Other companies like Kickstarter offer rewards or facilitate the pre-purchase of products. At the other extreme, because the SEC has taken the position that interest-bearing notes are securities, companies like Prosper and Lending Club have registered their offerings with the SEC.
Under pressure from Congress, the SEC agreed to review its regulations and their effect on capital formation in spring 2011. Crowdfunding received a boost when the Obama administration endorsed crowdfunding in September 2011. Although the SEC has the authority to exempt crowdfunding from the registration requirements of the Securities Act and to exempt intermediaries from registration as broker-dealers, Congress has forced the SEC to take action. The House of Representatives passed a crowdfunding bill in November 2011 and crowdfunding bills were introduced in the Senate in November 2011 and December 2011 that resulted in the crowdfunding provisions of the JOBS Act.
Crowdfunding Under the JOBS Act
Title III of the JOBS Act amends Section 4 of the Securities Act by adding a new paragraph (6), and requires the SEC to promulgate related rules to create an exemption from registration that permits a private company to sell securities in small amounts to large numbers of investors that are not accredited over a 12-month period.
Under the crowdfunding provisions, the aggregate dollar amount of securities that an issuer can sell in a crowdfunding transaction is limited to $1 million (less the aggregate amount of securities sold under other exemptions) over a 12-month period. In addition, the amount an issuer can sell to an individual investor in any 12-month period is limited to the maximum of:
• the greater of $2,000 or 5 percent of the annual income or net worth of an investor, if either the investor’s net worth or annual income is less than $100,000; and
• 10 percent, not to exceed $100,000, of annual income or net worth of an investor, if either the investor’s annual income or net worth is equal to or greater than $100,000.
Securities sold pursuant to the crowdfunding provisions are not transferable by the purchaser for one-year from the date of purchase, unless the securities are transferred to the issuer, an accredited investor, in a registered offering, or to family of the purchaser. The securities may also be subject to such other limitations as may be determined by the SEC.
Requirements on Intermediaries
An issuer must sell the securities in a crowdfunding offering through a broker or funding portal, which is required to register with the SEC and other applicable self-regulatory organizations.
These intermediaries need to meet a series of specific and restrictive requirements to be determined by the SEC. For example, intermediaries will be required to:
• provide investors with certain information (such as disclosures related to risks and other investor education materials);
• ensure that investors review the investor-education information, affirm their understanding of the risks and answer questions demonstrating an understanding of the risks;
• take measures to reduce the risk of fraud, including conducting background checks on officers, directors, and holders of more than 20 percent of the shares of issuers;
• make available to the SEC and potential investors the disclosure required to be provided by issuers not later than 21 days prior to the first day on with securities are sold;
• ensure that offering proceeds are provided to the issuer only when the target offering amount is reached or exceeded and allow investors to cancel their commitments;
• ensure that no investor in a 12-month period has purchased securities pursuant to the crowdfunding exemption that exceed the per-investor limits in the aggregate;
• take steps to ensure the privacy of information collected from investors;
• not compensate promoters, finders, or lead generators for providing the intermediary with the personal identifying information of any potential investor; and
• prohibit its directors, officers, or partners from having a financial interest in an issuer using its services.
The SEC is directed to establish rules that exempt funding portals from broker-dealer registration as long as they are subject to the authority of the SEC, are a member of a national securities association and are subject to other requirements the SEC may establish.
However, in order to qualify as a funding portal, the intermediary must not offer investment advice or recommendations; solicit purchases, sales, or offers to buy the securities offered on its website; compensate persons for such solicitation based on the sale of securities referenced on its website; hold, manage, possess, or otherwise handle investor funds or securities; or engage in other activities that the SEC determines.
While separate from the crowdfunding provisions, the JOBS Act also clarified that certain intermediaries in the fundraising process, such as web sites like AngelList that facilitate introductions between companies and investors, are not subject to broker-dealer registration. Section 201(c) of the JOBS Act provides that certain trading platforms involved with the sale of securities in a valid Rule 506 private placement are not subject to registration as a broker or dealer as long as certain conditions are met, including that persons receive no compensation in connection with the purchase or sale of securities and that the platform does not have possession of customer funds or securities in connection with the purchase or sale of securities.
Requirements for Issuers
Issuers utilizing crowdfunding must make financial and other information available to both the SEC and investors, both in connection with the offering and on an annual basis. The JOBS Act provides for a tiered disclosure regime based on the size of the offering, including the following:
• $100,000 or less: Income tax returns for the last fiscal year and unaudited financial statements certified as accurate by the principal executive officer.
• $100,000 to $500,000: Financial statements reviewed by an independent public accountant.
• More than $500,000: Audited financial statements.
As a practical matter, many early-stage startup companies that are considering crowdfunding may have only been recently incorporated and have not yet filed tax returns. Furthermore, many startup companies may not yet have engaged independent public accountants, nor have audited financial statements at the time they wish to raise funds.
Among other things, the issuer must file with the SEC and provide to investors and the intermediary and make available to potential investors:
• basic corporate information including name, legal status, address, and website;
• names of officers and directors (and any persons occupying similar status or performing similar functions);
• names of any holder of more than 20 percent of the shares of the issuer;
• description of the business and the anticipated business plan of the issuer;
• description of the stated purpose and intended use of the proceeds of the offering;
• target offering amount, deadline to reach such target amount, and regular updates relating to the issuer’s progress in meeting the target offering amount;
• the price to the public of the securities or the method for determining the price, and written disclosure prior to the sale of the final price and all required disclosures, providing investors with a reasonable opportunity to rescind the commitment to purchase;
• description of the ownership and capital structure of the issuer; and
• such other information as the SEC may prescribe.
Issuers must file annual reports with SEC and provide to investors reports of results of operations and financial statements as the SEC determines. However, many private companies wish to protect such sensitive financial information and may be disinclined from utilizing the exemption for this reason.
Furthermore, issuers may not advertise the terms of the offering except through notices that direct investors to the broker or funding portal. Compensation of intermediaries will be subject to rules designed to ensure that recipients disclose receipt of compensation.
In addition, the JOBS Act specifically authorizes an investor in a crowdfunding transaction to bring a civil action against an issuer for material misstatements or omissions in disclosures provided to investors. Such an action is subject to the provisions of Section 12(b) and Section 13 of the Securities Act.
The crowdfunding exemption will not be available to foreign companies, SEC reporting companies, investment companies, and companies excluded from the definition of investment company by virtue of Section 3(b) or 3(c) of the Investment Company Act of 1940.
The SEC is directed to promulgate disqualification provisions under which an issuer is not eligible to offer securities pursuant to new Section 4(6) of the Securities Act and brokers or funding portals shall not be eligible to effect or participate in crowdfunding transactions.
Coordination with State Law and Other Exemptions
Securities acquired pursuant to the crowdfunding provisions will be exempt from registration or qualification under state blue sky laws. In addition, states may not require a filing or a fee for crowdfunding securities except for the state of the principal place of business of the issuer or the state in which purchasers of 50 percent or greater of the aggregate amount raised are residents. However, the crowdfunding provisions preserve state enforcement authority over unlawful conduct by intermediaries and issuers and with respect to fraud or deceit.
While the JOBS Act specifically states that the crowdfunding amendments to the Securities Act are not to be interpreted as preventing an issuer from raising capital through other methods, it is unclear in practice how this will work. Private placements conducted through Regulation D-the most common type of private offering transaction-may be integrated with other offerings conducted within six months. Absent SEC clarification, significant questions regarding integration may inhibit a crowdfunding transaction at the same time as an angel or venture capital-led transaction with accredited investors is being conducted.
In addition, the SEC is directed to issue a rule to exclude persons holding crowdfunding securities from the shareholder threshold for registration under Section 12(g) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.
SEC Rulemaking
The crowdfunding provisions of the JOBS Act require significant SEC rulemaking, which is supposed to occur by December 31, 2012. In addition to specific areas that the SEC is supposed to address through rulemaking, the SEC is given wide discretion to prescribe various requirements on intermediaries and issuers for the protection of investors and in the public interest. The SEC has begun accepting public comments on regulatory initiatives under the JOBS Act, including the crowdfunding provisions.
SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro has publicly stated that the proposed rulemaking deadlines in the JOBS Act do not provide sufficient time for the SEC to consider and adopt rules under the act. Given these statements, it is not clear when companies actually will be able to take advantage of all of the provisions of the JOBS Act, including the crowdfunding provisions. Given the extensive SEC rulemaking required by the JOBS Act, and the investor protection issues involved, it is unclear whether the SEC will meet the deadline.
Raising Capital Apart from Crowdfunding
Other provisions of the JOBS Act provide opportunities to enable capital raising other than through crowdfunding. For example, Section 201(a)(1) of the JOBS Act directs the SEC to amend Rule 506 to make the prohibition against general solicitation or general advertising contained in Rule 502(c) inapplicable to offers and sales under Rule 506 provided that all purchasers are accredited investors. Section 201(b) amends Section 4 of the Securities Act to provide that offers and sales exempt under Rule 506 as revised by Section 201 “shall not be deemed public offerings under the Federal securities laws” as a result of general advertising or general solicitation. Section 201(a) requires the SEC to amend both Rule 506 and Rule 144A not later than 90 days after enactment of the JOBS Act. Therefore, after SEC rulemaking is complete, it may be easier for issuers to advertise Rule 506 offerings and raise capital through the sale of securities to accredited investors.
What the Crowdfunding Provisions Mean
First, companies should not try to utilize crowdfunding until the SEC finalizes rulemaking. Doing so would violate the securities laws and, in view of the “bad actor” provisions in the JOBS Act, may preclude a company from subsequently utilizing crowdfunding to raise capital.
Second, crowdfunding will clearly expand the options available to small companies seeking financing. As some early-stage startup companies have used Kickstarter to fund pre-sales of products, some startups may choose to use crowdfunding as an alternative to more conventional sources of funding.
Third, companies seeking to raise capital through crowdfunding will need attorneys involved to ensure that their corporate housekeeping is in order. Companies will need to ensure that an appropriate number and type of shares is authorized and review provisions relating to voting rights, board composition, and other matters that may be affected when the number of stockholders increases. In addition, companies will need to consider whether they will want their stockholders to enter into agreements imposing restrictions on share transfers, such as a company right of first refusal or IPO-related lock-up provisions. Furthermore, with a large number of stockholders, companies may want to review their director and officer indemnification provisions, and consider obtaining director’s and officer’s liability insurance.
Fourth, companies will be required to make filings with the SEC. Although these filings will be less burdensome than the filings required by public companies, they may still impose burdens on the resources of small companies, and may subject the companies and their officers and directors to potential liability if not properly prepared.
Fifth, many companies may be unable to prepare disclosure documents in compliance with the crowdfunding provisions of the JOBS Act. The SEC may use its rulemaking authority to prescribe a format, such as the Form 1-A Regulation A offering statement and the model offering circular contained in the form, which may impose a significant burden to raising a small amount of money.
Sixth, the increase in number of stockholders as a result of crowdfunding may result in increased administrative burdens on issuers. Stockholders may call or e-mail company personnel with questions or request meetings and may seek to avail themselves of rights to attend and participate in stockholder meetings and to inspect corporate books and records. Should litigation arise, it may be more challenging to manage such actions as the number of stockholders increases. In addition, if an issuer is the target of an acquisition, having a large number of stockholders may complicate securities law compliance.
Seventh, companies will need to choose intermediaries carefully. While some intermediaries’ websites have already begun to prepare for crowdfunding, the transaction fees charged by intermediaries have not yet been determined and there is the risk that fees will be excessive or that unscrupulous persons will masquerade as registered intermediaries.
Finally, it is possible that the attention given to crowdfunding may result in more elaborate schemes to defraud the public. Although the SEC will likely establish strict regulations on issuers and intermediaries, the perception that crowdfunding is legitimate may encourage unscrupulous persons to spam the public with various fraudulent crowdfunding opportunities not in compliance with the crowdfunding provisions of the JOBS Act. This may range from fraudsters operating fraudulent intermediaries to directly soliciting investments in fraudulent businesses.

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Written by Yokum · Filed Under General