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By MELODIE WARNER
Lennar Corp.'s LEN +2.43%fiscal third-quarter earnings quadrupled from a year earlier, thanks in part to a tax benefit, as more deliveries contributed to the homebuilder's stronger-than-expected revenue.
"In homebuilding, we continue to see strong sales trends translating into increased deliveries, stronger gross margins and improved operating leverage," said Chief Executive Stuart Miller. "While materials and labor costs are moving higher, sales-price increases and incentive reductions should continue to offset the impact of increasing costs."
Lennar has seen increased revenue in recent quarters as the housing industry appears to be recovering from the worst downturn in generations. The company is considered one of the sector's strongest players by some analysts, as it has remained profitable for nearly three years.
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The Door Is Open to Home Builders
.The National Association of Realtors last week said sales of previously occupied homes and construction of single-family homes reached the highest level in more than two years during August. According to the trade group, existing-home sales increased 7.8% in August from a month earlier, while housing starts increased 2.3%.
Meanwhile, Moody's Investors Service raised its outlook on U.S. homebuilders this month to positive from stable, saying low interest rates, strong affordability and pent-up demand offer a boost to homebuilders' prospects.
For the quarter ended Aug. 31, Lennar reported a profit of $87.1 million, or 40 cents a share, up from $20.7 million, or 11 cents a share, a year earlier. The most-recent quarter included a $12.8 million income-tax benefit related to the reversal of deferred tax assets. Revenue jumped 34% to $1.1 billion.
Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters most recently had forecast earnings of 28 cents on revenue of $1.05 billion.
Gross margin on home sales improved to 23.2% from 21.2%.
New home deliveries increased 28% to 3,655 homes, while the cancellation rate was 17%. The average selling price climbed 4.5% to $258,000.
Orders jumped 44% to 4,198 homes, and the company's backlog, an indication of future business, grew 79% to 4,513 homes.
Monday, September 24, 2012
Sunday, September 23, 2012
中国工资水平上涨让墨西哥受益
中国工资水平上涨让墨西哥受益
中
国工资水平上涨以及经济增长减速为墨西哥带来了机遇，可以重新争取到过去10年追逐太平洋彼岸廉价劳动力的部分企业。彼时中国平均工资水平只有墨西哥的四分之一。波士顿咨询公司(Boston Consulting Group)说，对于美国市场，很多产品在墨西哥的生产成本可能已经低于在中国生产的成本。该公司估计，在考虑生产率差异之后，今年中国制造业平均工资水平超过了墨西哥。墨西哥工人的单位时间产量往往高于中国工人，而墨西哥与美国邻近，这意味着企业向美国客户发货的速度可以更快，而且费用常常更低。
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中国仍然保留着很多优势，其中之一是上10亿的消费者。随着中国工资水平上涨，这些消费者将有更多的钱购买产品，而不只是为世界其他国家生产这些产品。
另外也很少有人预计企业会大规模回迁至墨西哥。当地的禁毒战吓跑了新的企业，而熟练劳动力或零部件供应链的现状也还不足以对中国的制造能力构成严峻挑战。
但在中国工资水平继续上升的过程中，墨西哥似乎是最有条件受益的国家。墨西哥出口额超过拉丁美洲其他国家的出口额之和。据咨询公司Alix Partners去年12月份一项调查，它是美国以外面向美国市场生产产品成本最低的地方。
墨西哥境内沿着美墨边境建成的工厂可以比亚洲工厂更快地向美国市场供应产品，特别是那些依赖于个性化设计和时尚潮流的产品。
在大型超市购买戴尔(Dell Inc.)电脑的消费者，买到的是一件由富士康(Foxconn)在中国生产的产品。但消费者可以在该公司网站上定制他们的订单，比如增加内存或采用粉色背壳。这些电脑在墨西哥华雷斯附近一座占地1,200英亩（485.6万平方米）的富士康工厂组装和发货，该厂每天最多生产3.5万台笔记本电脑和台式电脑。富士康墨西哥业务开发负责人乌兰加(Francisco Uranga)说：我们的卡车几个小时就可以开到美国那边去。
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墨西哥一家大众汽车厂的工人。
企业重返墨西哥也会让美国受益。由于墨西哥企业严重依赖美国生产的零部件，墨西哥每出口一美元的商品，美国企业就可以赚到0.37美元。而由于中国企业主要使用当地生产的零部件，美国从中国出口中获利的比例要远低于此。此外，墨西哥的就业机会越多，穿越美墨边境的非法移民人数也会减少。
在过去的10年里，中国崛起对墨西哥的负面影响首当其冲。自从与美国签订自由贸易协定以来，墨西哥一直是新兴市场中的先锋。该协定于1994年生效。
墨西哥从这一协定中得到了最初的助力。但是许多在墨西哥设立业务的公司后来纷纷转战中国，原因是中国低工资帮助节省的成本远远抵消了墨西哥的关税优势。
中国现在每年在全世界出口大约1.9万亿美元的商品，出口额是墨西哥的五倍。10年前，中国的出口额大约是墨西哥的两倍。根据伟创力国际(Flextronics International Ltd.)的数据显示，从那以后，中国的平均工资从2000年的每小时0.6美元上涨到了目前的每小时2.5美元（包括福利）。伟创力国际是一家总部位于新加坡的电子产品制造商，在墨西哥有4万名工人，在中国有10万名工人。
伟创力说，包含福利在内，墨西哥的平均工资大约为每小时3.5美元。该公司说，在未来几年，中国的工资水平很可能超过墨西哥。
波士顿咨询公司研究全球竞争力的顾问赛金(Harold Sirkin)说：我们认为墨西哥将会从这些变化中受益，但是我们不认为企业会大量涌入墨西哥。
中国决策者的目标是提高工资水平，哪怕这意味着中国的工资水平不再是全球最低，同时中国也将把最廉价制造商的角色让给其他国家。对于企业来说，中国提高工资水平的好处，是消费者会更加富裕。伟创力的首席执行长麦克纳马拉(Mike McNamara)说，在中国生产用于出口的商品可能比以前稍微昂贵一些，但是这也意味着消费者基数的不断增长。因此，如果你同时在中国销售商品的话，那么在中国进行生产是行得通的，并不需要把业务分散到不同地点。
墨西哥的吸引力还没有显著增加。去年，墨西哥吸引了194.4亿美元的外商直接投资，略低于2010年的202.1亿美元，远远低于2008年的269亿美元。
不过，根据美国人口普查局(U.S. Census Bureau)的数据，墨西哥商品在美国进口额中的占比已经提高，这一比例从2009年的10%上升到了去年的接近12%。中国的市场份额曾经一直在增长，但最近出现了小幅下降，从2010年的19%降到了18%。
捷普科技(Jabil Circuit Inc., JBL)负责产品制造的执行副总裁缪尔(Bill Muir)说，如果你仔细思考一下中国的货币、工资上涨和税收政策，所有这些都正在成为相对较大的不利因素。该公司是一家总部位于佛罗里达州的电子产品制造商。
洗衣机生产商几年前认为，只有在30%至40%的洗衣机都需要加急出货的情况下，才值得在墨西哥投资生产洗衣机。但缪尔说，现在这个比例只要有10%，制造商就会觉得可以选择墨西哥。
他说，阻碍墨西哥发展的主要原因是暴力事件。去年，估计有1.6万人死于跟毒品有关的谋杀案；而过去五年，死于相同原因的共有5万多人。据联合国(United Nations)2011年一份报告显示，2010年墨西哥每10万人中就有18.1人被杀，美国和中国的比率则分别约为5人和1.1人。缪尔说，这是个让人感到可悲和具有讽刺意义的事情，因为如果说墨西哥在某个时期提高了国家竞争力，那么这个时期就是过去五年，但这同时也是墨西哥国内安全局势恶化的时期。
墨西哥已在汽车和航天等部分产业建立起了强大的供应链，但仍缺乏可与中国竞争的遍及各行业的供应商。
过去15年，墨西哥一直宣扬它对宏观经济的管理，但却未能通过重大的经济改革来提升竞争力。分析人士指出，其中原因在于墨西哥对能源业的国家垄断、劳动市场的相关法规以及不完善的税收制度。墨西哥的税收仅相当于年经济产出的12%，几乎没有可用于投资基础设施或教育的资金。
在世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)公布的世界各国竞争力排行榜上，墨西哥在2001年至2011年期间下滑了16位，至第58位。中国则从2001年第39位（墨西哥当年的位次与中国差不多）上升至第26位。墨西哥落后的关键领域包括安全（第139位）、劳动力市场效率（第114位）和教育质量（第107位）。
精英企业控股有限公司(Ace Corp. Holdings Ltd.)是一家香港的合约制造商，在中国南方有很多工厂。2010年，该公司在墨西哥的蒙特雷市收购了一家注塑成型公司50%的股权，其主要目的是更加靠近墨西哥蓬勃发展的汽车业供应商。
精英企业控股的行政总裁杨 杰(Jack Yeung)说，公司目前发展迅速。但他不能像自己所希望的那样扩大公司规模，因为在墨西哥他找不到足够多的掌握最新技术的工人。杨 杰和其他人说，墨西哥的制造技能日渐衰退。
墨西哥经济部长费拉里(Bruno Ferrari)说，一项把高等院校与制造商联系在一起的计划正在开始为出口商培养出具备所需技术的工人。他说，墨西哥现在每年有5.5万名工程类毕业生，人数是巴西的两倍。他还说，墨西哥基础设施投资占该国年均经济产出的比重已从10年前的3%提高至如今的5%。
DAVID LUHNOW发自墨西哥城 / BOB DAVIS发自北京
Wednesday, September 12, 2012
Fed Seen Starting QE3 While Extending Rate Pledge to 2015
Fed Seen Starting QE3 While Extending Rate Pledge to 2015
By Joshua Zumbrun and Jeff Kearns - Sep 12, 2012 12:00 AM ET
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee will once again roll out unconventional policies to bolster economic growth of less than 2 percent in the second quarter and bring down unemployment stuck above 8 percent for 43 straight months, the survey showed.
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Two rounds of bond purchases totaling $2.3 trillion have failed to breathe life into the labor market, which Bernanke said last month is a “grave concern.” That means policy makers will probably announce a new open-ended plan tied to a sustained improvement in the economy rather than specify an amount of purchases and an end-date, according to 32 of the 73 economists in the survey. Twenty-two expect a fixed duration and amount.
The FOMC plans to release a statement tomorrow at about 12:30 p.m. after a two-day meeting. At 2 p.m. the Fed will release policy makers’ forecasts for unemployment, inflation and the expected path of the federal funds rate over the next several years. Bernanke plans to hold a press conference at about 2:15 p.m.
Stocks Rallied
Stocks and commodities have rallied on expectations of easing by the central bank. Since Aug. 1, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has risen 4.3 percent to 1,433.56, near the four-year high reached last week. The S&P GSCI Spot Index that tracks the price of 24 commodities has risen 6.8 percent.Most economists predict that in a new round of easing the Fed would buy a mix of Treasury notes and mortgage-backed securities.
The central bank would buy $300 billion in Treasuries and $400 billion in mortgage debt, according to the median estimates of economists who expect a fixed sum of purchases.
Economists expecting open-ended asset-buying predict monthly purchases of $30 billion in government debt and $35 billion in housing debt. After a year, the Fed would expand its balance sheet by a total of $780 billion.
New Purchases
Policy makers may forgo new bond purchases at this meeting to solidify a consensus on the issue among themselves or to better prepare the public for the move, said Michael Hanson, senior U.S. economist at Bank of America Corp. in New York.“One reason for waiting would be if the Fed is thinking of structuring this not as a fixed quantity but as a more open- ended plan, but they don’t have the details together yet and don’t have consensus on how to do that,” said Hanson, a former economist at the Fed board in Washington.
San Francisco Fed President John Williams, Chicago’s Charles Evans and Boston’s Eric Rosengren have called for open- ended purchases. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said Aug. 31 he prefers the open-ended approach yet would like to see more data before taking action.
In the first round of bond buying, the Fed in November 2008 began purchasing $1.25 trillion of mortgage-backed securities, $175 billion of agency debt and $300 billion of Treasuries to provide further stimulus after the benchmark rate was cut almost to zero in December 2008.
Second Round
In the second round, announced in November 2010 and lasting through the following June, the Fed bought $600 billion of Treasuries.Bernanke said Aug. 31 in a speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that a Fed study found that large-scale asset purchases may have raised the level of economic output by almost 3 percent and boosted private payroll employment by more than 2 million jobs. U.S. gross domestic product expanded 2.4 percent in 2010 after contractions of 0.3 percent in 2008 and 3.1 percent in 2009.
Bernanke didn’t describe the options for future quantitative easing.
Some Fed officials have spoken so enthusiastically about new easing that a decision to keep policy unchanged tomorrow could trigger a downturn in markets, said Neal Soss, chief economist for Credit Suisse Group AG in New York.
“Disappointing the markets doesn’t seem like a good strategy, but it’s not obvious how much more GDP to expect if they fulfill market expectations for more action,” said Soss, a former New York Fed economist.
Near Zero
Central bankers are also poised to extend until 2015 their forecast that economic conditions will probably warrant holding interest rates near zero through late 2014. Sixty-eight percent of economists surveyed expect an extension at tomorrow’s meeting.At the July 31-Aug. 1 FOMC meeting, a few participants wanted to replace the calendar date with guidance linked to the economic conditions that would warrant raising rates, according to minutes of the gathering. Fifteen percent of economists said the central bank will probably tie the low-rate policy to the performance of the economy.
To contact the reporter on this story: Joshua Zumbrun in Washington at jzumbrun@bloomberg.net;
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