亿万富翁惊曝炒房心得 暴富秘技揭楼市真相

亿万富翁惊曝炒房心得 暴富秘技揭楼市真相
中国证券网 2011-04-29 19:33:46

对于普通居民来说，可选的投资渠道依然少得可怜。在众多投资渠道中，香港中文大学讲座教授郎咸平并不看好黄金，他认为对于节节走高的金价，没有必要参与追涨。过去10年里，黄金价格节节攀升，至今已经翻了两番多。其它融资渠道，外汇投资不确定性因素大，门槛高;股票投资，迄今为止还有一批2007年高点套牢的投资者没有解套。在郎咸平看来，房产比股票抗风险的能力更强。

2008年1月，怀揣着挖煤炭赚来的2000万RMB，我加入了炒房的行列。2009年10月，我的收益已经到了2亿，同时，我自认为当前炒房技术已经炉火纯青。首先声明，我是1992年初中肄业(差半年毕业，因为厌倦读书提前回家)。

但是对炒房子，我还是有准备的：半个月前，每天晚饭后，邻居大哥S在我家客厅里对我强化训练了炒房基础知识。在后面我会通过实战过程透露给你们这些绝密而绝无技术含量的炒房经验。

刚起步的房地产商，一般地说，还是有点钱的，但是真正要介入房地产行业，参加土地竞拍，与大鳄斗法，资本仍然显单薄。老B就是这种。我在昆明找到了老B。老B是四川人，30年前就来了昆明，从鸡贩子做起，最后成了一个大型农贸市场的老总，人熟地熟。老B看着有老乡做房地产发了，眼红，决定改行干这一行暴发一次。作为老油条，老B注册房地产公司简直手到擒来，收了老B28万的费用后，代办工商注册的中介公司15天就把注册资本金3000万元的营业执照送到了老B手里。然后老B东拼西借，存折上积攒了1200多万。


长话短说，老B第一次参加土地竞拍，交了600万保证金，拍得了9000万的一块地，在后面的6个月里又借又贷，3000万交给了市国土资源局。

我在邦克酒店见到老B的时候，老B刚刚在这个五星酒店的套房里给售楼部经理安排完工作。当然，那个1米7几模特身材明星面容的售楼部经理的长头发遗留在酒店贵妃椅和浴室里的迹象表明，老B的给经理的月工资至少6位数。我虽然没文化，可今生阅美女无数。当我第一次走进老B的楼盘销售中心，第一眼就看到了那个比兽兽还纯还猸的售楼部经理。我坚信只有她能把我引见给她的最高领导。S哥说过，炒房必须跟房地产公司最高领导谈，知情圈子绝对划定在3人团：董事长、财务总监还有我。所以我今天说的东西，就是中国房价为什么突飞猛进扶摇直上的真正原因。

我对老B说，我要现金买你即将开盘的房子，我要买500套，价格我说了算，2200元一平，能行就再谈，不行我马上走人不浪费时间。

老B说，2200?太低了，市场价4、5千呢!我说，2200不便宜了，我在厦门出2150一平，厦门现在市场1万6呢。LAST，我与老B达成协议如下：

我以11800万RMB一次性购买老B的540套房子，本协议书签定之日起三日内一次性付清。房子为楼盘内各幢之20(本小区共27幢，540套房子由我选，不分等级，价格为一刀切2180/平方米);

老B的房子开盘当日仅提供给散户288套房源，其余全部用红色胶纸封闭。第二次(15日后)放盘388套，第三次(30日后)放588套。剩余30日后放。每次放盘中的88套为本人房源;

老B的开盘房价暂定为6900~8700元/平(依楼层、朝向、内外幢、户型、是否临街拉开价位)。规定开盘后每4周涨价至少1%;

散户每购买成交我的一套房子，老B当即退还我的房款，我应得房款是该套房子的销售额全价(无论散户购房是全款还是按揭).

若本人所持有之540套房源12个月内全部售磬，本人与老B协议关系终止。若超出12个月，剩余房源由老B全部收回，按当时销售价格全部一次性退款给本人。

绝密一 现在你们知道炒房团怎么炒了吧?

绝大多数人都以为是开盘之后温州人和山西人以市场价买进。那你就错了，炒房团深知开发商的软肋——缺钱!巨额资金的介入，会让开发商眼前一亮，头晕目眩。

因为，说实在话，几亿、十几亿从银行得到贷款，远不是想象的那么容易。炒房团，就是有钱人组成团，给房地产开发商提供巨额资金。

目的一：帮助房地产商，使其光环维持和光大。房地产行业，时刻在风口狼尖上，不进则退，不活则死。

目的二：使城市房屋(包括商、住)价格狂飙，彻底激活消费者买涨不买跌的心理。

目的三：盘活房地产开发商的资金链，使其银行巨额贷款的困难逐步消化，分解给刚性购房群体和中产阶层(绝大部分都是银行按揭).

实际上，投资性购房者可以说是象狗一样地在吃人家丢的骨头。

显而易见，房地产的泡沫是由：1、愚民的政府政策，2、贪婪的商业银行，3、无德的富人阶层，4、无辜的中华文明(安家立业是成年标志)这四个条件促成的。

绝密二 房子究竟值多少钱?

你说它值多少钱它就值多少钱!既然买房子对所有人来说都是投资，那么它的价格与成本之间小幅度或大幅度的波动，都应该认为是正常的。

没有涨和跌反而是不正常的，涨的越快，应该跌的越猛。

公众期盼的是：1、富人应该有社会公德，不应该为高房价推波助澜;2、国家政策应该明确，你鼓动高房价就是与缩小贫富差距相悖;3、商业银行应该为关乎民族命运的科教文卫和制造业发展提供服务，为热衷于虚拟经济的降降温。

绝密三 房地产行业的潜规则：

官商勾结成大事。不与官(至少是涉及的所有主管部门一把手)勾结寸步难行。想勾结出感情，不动大手笔免谈。

噱头必不可少。要么是海外投资的旗号(其实是老虎皮)，要么是浙闽大亨的来头。奔驰车和保时捷排量越大越有感召力，宣传册子、广告语越霸气越能打动中国人。

抓机遇是高手。国家土地政策、银行放贷政策、城市规划方案，历来都是中国弱智商、低水平的政府官员和经济学家、金融家等摸石头过河的杰作，政绩风格突出，短期效应毕现，自相矛盾，漏洞百出，“擦边球”大有可为。

融资途径广泛。具备条件的，可以到A股里面套点现金回来“做大做强”。民间游资，不可小觑，炒房团就是典型示范，几千万、上亿的现金，有时候对开发商就象是春雨贵如油，那时候开发商甚至能下跪给炒房团(绝密)，至于巨额让利给炒房团，楼上已见。

房地产行业靠逃税漏税发财，是洗钱的圣地。很简单的公式：楼盘销售总额—(土地金+建筑成本+水电气配套费用)=毛利润。

还要交50%左右的各种税费才是纯利润。

可以在建筑成本上大作文章：本来是1000元/平方米，可以和建筑公司老板勾结(绝密)，签定1800元/平方米的结算单，超出的800元/平米，从施工队帐上过一下，还是现金回到了开放商手里，建筑施工税费仅3.4%左右，可以逃避税收至少30%。(洗钱和逃税并举).

实在还觉得不够，可以打出“送20万精装修”的幌子，原理和以上相同。

绝密四 说说散户炒房。案例如下：

1、100万资金首付30%，按揭3套100万的期房，总价300万，支出90万。

2、两年后交房，当天交房屋维修基金和契税3.5%。两年期间已归还银行贷款30万。当你收到房子时，你已经累计支出130.5万元。

3、此时，房价已经过两年的共20%的上涨，市场上你的3套房总价已达360万。通过你在房屋中介公司挂牌销售，你可能有幸按360万全部脱手， 获利29.5万。

4、实际获利与银行存款相比，100万元银行2年期存款利息可达12万元(大额存款是高利息)，你实际比银行存款利息多得17.5万元。

5、如果中介在1年内才把你的3套房出手，你实际获利比存款利息还要少3.5万元(多还一年房贷15万元).

6、若恰逢国家房地产政策调控，或者你贪婪地捂到5年后出手，你自己计算吧。到那时候，你就死去吧。不仅仅是sb.

那时候，银行会一天一个函催你还款。你实在挺不住了，把“夏利”车也卖了，把16岁的女儿也早早嫁人，甚至你老婆会到广州街头“站街”帮你赚钱还债。也许你会跳楼。即使你不跳楼，法院会把你领进小黑屋。如果你跳楼，那就是中国房地产崩盘了。

绝密五 再说说炒房团。资金从哪里来?

山西煤老板：非法开采国家资源，廉价使用劳动力，因陋就简的采掘设备和安全技术措施，结伙入盟哄抬煤炭价格，以极快的速度实现资本积累。

温州客：没有文化的个体户出身，小手工作坊仿冒国际名牌产品，在全国各地(特别是西部偏远落后地区)开设销售网点，春江水暖鸭先知把握了市场经济形势，早期敛财速度惊人。并结伙抱团开设地下钱庄，大资金动辙数千万、数亿、数十亿。

福建客：房地产热之前(2005年之前)，全国70%的公路、铁路、电站隧道工程几乎被福建人一手独揽，采取不正当的手段榨取民工血汗，钻营中国央企施工企业(说白了就是给央企领导投资)，很快发达。要知道隧道工程资金流量巨大，比如一项工程总投资3个亿，赚5000万利润是最笨的福建老板。另外，早年的赖昌星走私之流，能让杨钰莹这样的名女人都投怀送抱，可见走私资本积累速度也是很罕见的。

绝密六 炒房的暴利究竟有多大?

以楼上为例，提前与房地产董事长暗地协议，以2200元/平方米抢购巨量房源(至少300套)，鼓动市场价超过7000元，并力挺10000元/平，逐步随售楼部销售出手，资金逐步回笼，在中国政府的目前政策形势下，回笼的越慢，反而利益收获就越大。大到多少?

当二、三线城市的平均房价达到10000元/平的时候，炒房团的收益完全可以达到500%!炒房团扑向一个城市，是同时扑向所有楼盘。这样一来，一个城市的房价飙升已成定势!以去年底的海南岛为例，炒房团可以让海南的房价一天一个价，一夜一个行情，造就一个又一个真实的梦!

其实，炒房团的组成人员，绝大多数都是高中没读完的，自己签个名字都歪歪扭扭。炒房的技术含量确实很低，真的很低，会用加减乘除足矣，甚至连加权平均都不用。更不用看什么各类权威的什么CPI、PPI、GDP。投入了一些钱，3个月后赚多少钱?6个月后赚多少?1年后赚多少?

绝密七 房地产会崩盘吗?

中国的房价走势不可能效仿日本的崩盘时间表。说这话的，忘记了最关键的东西——中国是伟大的社会主义国家!崩盘是什么概念呀?房价崩盘了，中国就乱了。

那时候说不清人民币究竟会升值还是贬值，反正银行要不会倒闭，但存款取现困难，30%的央企倒闭，60%的中小民企消失。但房价必须下跌，跌30 ——40%一点也不过分，到这个水平，银行依然不吃亏，已买房自住的跟这几乎没关系，想买房的肯定喜上眉梢。炒房团或投资性购房的散户，为国家和社会做点贡献合情合理。

绝密八 房市四大傻

1、自住房买涨不买跌的心理害人又害己，是一大傻;

2、不要以为买房子从银行贷款手续简单就很方便。银行的还款计划是前2年先把它的利息大部分回收，银行是贪婪的，也是不可靠的。贷款180万、25年还贷期是二大傻;

3、如果你是城镇户口，没有迁移户口的需求，现在买房子是大笨蛋。

买房自住的叫“房奴”，前世来生都得还，“出来混，总是要还的”。每个月还银行几千元，你从今往后的生活就谈不上质量。城镇居民买高价房是三大傻;

4、有人说，买得起高价房是男人成功标志，这里我要说，买高价房的人都是四大傻。

建议：真的要住城市，租房(当然要稳定的租价和租期)是最好的选择。

绝密九 知道什么是“房虫”吗?

在北方，街上练摊的，都要请些哥们朋友来捧场，造成人头攒动的声势，名字叫“托儿”。房地产行业的“托儿”有个专用名称叫“房虫”。

1、楼盘开盘当天，你要去买房子排队买号，你也许排在第500位的号，然而等你出手敲定一套房子，等你签定合约时，你会发现你的合约编号是第0030号。

你明白了吗?你前面后面排队的数百人、上千人，都是人家花小费请来的“房虫”!

2、还有一类“房虫”，是真的交定金、签合同。然而1~3个月后，一旦房价飙涨，他们会成批成批地退房。他们是打“假球”，真正目的是把球传给刚性购买群体。当然，他们与房地产老板的合同与你的合同有关键性的差别：不存在退房扣5%的违约金!

肯定啦，买房时的定金是房地产老板提前给的。还有，不瞎忙，参与本次房虫活动，每个炒作员都有5000~20000的“辛苦费”。你相信吗?

绝密十 究竟有多少人在真正关心房价?

1、政府官员：关心自己的仕途;关心本界政绩;关心本辖区的GDP，能创造越多的地王，本地经济越繁荣。

2、商业银行：历来发愁货币贷款任务完不成。放贷越多，收益越大。存款准备金或贸易逆差是北京总部的事(各商业银行在全国的市级分行网点至少5000个，具体小政策自己灵活机动掌握).

3、经济学家：是读书到博士、评职称到正教授级、写书给省部级刊物， 顺理成章到所谓的“发展研究中心”上班，每天8小时上班，业余时间保养下身体，否则头发会掉光。不可忽视的是，相当一部分经济学家已经依附于财团，持有的某些观点是为了赚得一些小实惠。

4、富人阶层(仅流动资金就超过500万人民币)：早就对房子这个东西没有激情啦(早有豪华居所).

5、中产阶层(固定资本超100万，流动资本低于100万)：可能介入炒股、炒房，会迅速步入富人阶层或沦为贫民阶层。

6、贫民阶层(上班族或个体业主，家庭月收入低于10000，存款低于10万)：是刚性消费群体，对房价涨跌敏感，有强烈的改善住房需求，是忠实房奴。

7、贫困阶层(家庭月收入低于3000，比如即将倒闭的企业职工，频繁跳槽的年轻大学生，还有农民及农民工，存款低于20000)：有饭吃、饿不死的一族，城市买房几乎是梦。

8、特困阶层(家庭月总收入低于1000，天旱没水吃，下雨屋漏雨)：是政府救济对象，听买房子象听天书。

最后问一句你属于哪个阶层呢?

投资客的“绝密”宝典：好房子总会升值的

敏锐的投资者总是会与经济学家们持相异的观点，但有时，他们的行为却又和经济学家给出的建议很相似。

著名的投资人李久龙(应当事人要求采用化名)12月21日对本报记者说，从来不听宏观经济学家们的分析，最近仍很看好海南的房产。“就像女人买LV的包，在海南的房子也是必须拥有的，这关乎人生的布局。”

在他看来，有时，买房不仅仅是为了投资，也可以自用 ，甚至可以招待朋友。尽管现在价位已经很高，但他的投资哲学是，一定要买品质好的房子，5年、10年以后，好的房子仍有升值的潜力。李久龙是通过炒房赚过真金白银的投资者，身后也有大批追随者，他曾带着几十个投资者一起去海南买过房。

除了买房还能买什么?

中国人民银行12月15日发布的《2010年第4季度储户问卷调查报告》显示，房地产继续成为居民投资首选。

对于普通居民来说，可选的投资渠道依然少得可怜。在众多投资渠道中，香港中文大学讲座教授郎咸平并不看好黄金，他认为对于节节走高的金价，没有必要参与追涨。过去10年里，黄金价格节节攀升，至今已经翻了两番多。其它融资渠道，外汇投资不确定性因素大，门槛高;股票投资，迄今为止还有一批2007年高点套牢的投资者没有解套。在郎咸平看来，房产比股票抗风险的能力更强。

郎咸平认为，“在通胀来临时，相对于黄金，房地产更具有保值功能。在中国，高档楼盘的泡沫要小于中低档楼盘的泡沫。”他表示，“在全球经济普跌和中国通货膨胀预期严重的情况下，长期来看，购买房地产可以有效对冲通货膨胀风险。”这也是绝大多数人的想法，人们总是跟风投资。

一位有8年从业经验的资深房[简介 最新动态]地产销售经理告诉记者，他最近接触的很多投资者都认为，还是把钱放到楼市里最安全。不过，如今的房价已大幅提升楼市的投资门槛，现在投资房产的人不是中产者，而是真正有钱的富人。

早年间，温州炒房团来京城炒房时，几乎所有房子都进行贷款。但据前述销售经理告诉记者，他们从去年开始已逐渐从楼市中退出。现在炒房的温州人和过去炒房的温州人名单中有一小部分是重叠的，但也有一部分人将炒楼赚来的资金直接投向了实业。随着调控的收紧，依靠银行贷款来炒房已经行不通，资金的杠杆效应已大大减弱。“今年在一线城市除了一些刚性需求支撑的住宅项目卖得比较好，其他都是小户型的产品，或者是总价比较低的商业立项的公寓项目，比较受投资者欢迎。”他说。

还有一些投资者将目光投向二、三线城市。早前，阳光[最新消息 价格 户型 点评]100副总裁范小冲曾表示，二三线城市也许会上演一线城市房地产市场暴涨的奇迹。部分二线城市房价近期涨速明显加速。

李九龙去年买下的重庆高端房产，目前已升值20%左右。但他认为并不是所有的二三线城市都值得投资，必须挑选住房的品质，才可以避免风险。

在炒房大军中一股不可忽视的力量是房地产公司内部人员。他们的投资策略是，跟随公司异地扩张的步伐，项目开发到哪里，就投资到哪里。他们更容易了解项目的定价策略，掌握自己的获利状况。在项目的一期时买入，二期或者三期的时候卖出，绝大多数人，都相信房价不会下跌。宏观调控似乎更坚定了他们的信念。

虽然很多城市有限购政策，但一些城市的限购政策并不严格。天津武清区龙湾城相关负责人告诉记者，目前天津只有城六区有限购政策，其他区域还是很欢迎外地的投资者兼自用者。购房投资达一定标准，送蓝印户口的政策始终没有取消，这意味着地方政府还是鼓励正常的投资。

危机即将到来?

万科[简介 最新动态]总裁郁亮在杭州的媒体见面会上指出，今年调控政策的执行到位力度，是历次调控中所没有出现过的。10月份销售数据显示，一次性付款提高到35%，历史上最高都没有超过这个数字。投资客比例已大幅下降。

但在前述销售经理看来，很多投资者并不是不愿意买房，而是没能力参与，一旦有合适的产品，还是会选择购买。但在有些投资者看来，这也许是危机的前兆，因此对是否出手买房再次形成模棱两可的态度。李九龙也不像过去那么频繁买房了。“大环境来看，非典、金融危机这样绝佳的购房机会只有一次。”李九龙说。

一向唱空的独立经济学家谢国忠今年10月份指出，中国已进入房地产熊市，将持续5年时间。大城市的平均房价很可能会下降一半以上。谢国忠认为，在泡沫时期，准确断言市场顶部是一门艺术。人类跟风投资的弱点是泡沫的助推剂，总到最后时刻才能醒悟。泡沫破裂通常由资本退潮触发。过去10年，中国拥有强大的楼市和疲软的消费。而未来10年，情况可能刚好相反。

高盛香港投资银行部董事总经理哈继铭不久前也公开发表观点称，2015年之前买房都是保险的，买房就买大户型。虽然有调控的因素给市场带来波动，但房价还是会区域性地上涨。2015年我国的人口拐点到了，到时候一对夫妇可能有三四套房子，就会考虑卖掉三套房子买一套房子，所以买房一定要买大户型。

Long-Term Bets on Yuan Are No Sure Thing

Long-Term Bets on Yuan Are No Sure Thing

By PETER STEIN

China could be preparing to hit the accelerator on currency appreciation. But before we all get carried away, the yuan isn't necessarily going to go up forever.

You can see that view in the market's ambivalence toward longer-dated yuan debt sold in Hong Kong. The tenor of most of those products is between one and three years. Investors appear confident of appreciation over that time frame, bankers say. After that, it's a crap shoot.


Associated Press

They're right to be cautious. Most people think the government has the wherewithal to stave off a future banking crisis, but given the volume of China's lending in recent years as part of an officially sanctioned stimulus plan, the chances that things get ugly and lead to currency stasis or a selloff aren't negligible.

In the shorter term, of course, the consensus is that the yuan (also known as the renminbi, or RMB) is a one-way bet. What's more, its gains look ready to pick up speed.

The case for faster yuan appreciation got a boost from comments by Chinese officials, including Premier Wen Jiabao and a top official at the People's Bank of China, suggesting a stronger currency could be a weapon against inflation. China's consumer-price index rose 5.4% in March and has been gathering steam despite repeated credit tightening by the country's central bank. A stronger yuan lowers the effective cost of imported goods. Li-Gang Liu, China economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group, predicts pressure from rising prices for imports like oil, iron ore and soybeans will push the yuan-dollar rate 6% higher for the year.

The one-way bet makes things challenging for Chinese policy makers. Even if they see the logic behind pushing the currency higher, they worry that speculators lured by the certainty of the bet will find their way around the country's capital controls (as they often have) and flood their economy with potentially destabilizing "hot money."

This is one reason some speculate China's leaders might opt for a one-time, hefty currency revaluation of, say, 10%. The idea is that such a move would eliminate appreciation pressure in one fell swoop and allow the PBOC a chance to keep the market guessing as to the yuan's future direction. However, there's no indication the idea is anything more than talk, and given the damage such a move would inflict on Chinese exporters and employment, China's penchant for gradualism is probably a safer bet.

Expectations of yuan appreciation are the fuel that is driving rapid growth in the offshore market for China's currency, particularly in Hong Kong. International investors are piling money into offshore-yuan bonds despite yields far lower than those available to domestic investors. The reason is their conviction that a strengthening renminbi will goose their dollar-based returns to levels well beyond what they can earn with an investment in U.S. dollars, or Hong Kong dollars, which are pegged to the greenback.

"The reason that RMB internationalization is exciting in Hong Kong, that people are playing it, is the appreciation," says Romnesh Lamba, executive vice president and head of market development at Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd., the owner of Hong Kong's stock exchange.

HKEx is taking advantage of those expectations by launching its newest toy, the first yuan-denominated stock sold outside mainland China, which begins trading on Friday. "If you take the appreciation away, they may not play it," he says, "and the equity product may never take off."

Even short term, though, appreciation may not be such a sure thing.

Robert Reilly, co-head of flow fixed income and currencies for Asia at Société Générale, calls it a high-risk assumption. He points to the potential impact on global markets from sovereign-debt problems in Europe and mounting concerns over the outlook for U.S. government debt.

"If we see that hit U.S. investor confidence, and that hits equities, all bets are off the table for China to appreciate the currency," he says.

For now, underpinned by widespread confidence in the appreciation story, the yuan's internationalization marches on. Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong's banking system could reach one trillion yuan ($154 billion) by the end of the year, some economists believe, up from 407 billion yuan at the end of February. At that point, the market might be deep enough to weather a change in the currency's outlook.

Still, "if the RMB were to be a depreciating currency, there would probably be a lack of strong demand for that," says Mr. Li, the ANZ economist. "Definitely the market would turn."

Write to Peter Stein at peter.stein@wsj.com

央行拟利用3万亿外储设立能源及贵金属等投资基金

　央行拟利用3万亿外储设立能源及贵金属等投资基金

　　央行拟设立能源基金、贵金属基金在内的外汇储备投资基金，及重入政策研究视野的外汇平准基金，有望构成新的外储管理战略。

　　然中国人民银行(下称央行)未公布最新数据，但中国外汇储备已突破3万亿美元的消息不胫而走。

　　"外汇储备确实太多了。"4月18日晚间，在清华大学金融高端讲坛上，央行行长周小川(专栏)透露，央行在考虑用外汇储备做一些战略性投资。

　　财新《新世纪》记者亦从多个权威渠道了解到，央行打算按专业分类成立外汇储备投资基金，包括能源基金、贵金属基金等，也在研究成立外汇平准基金的建议。

　　4月18日晚间，国际评级机构标普将美债评级调至负面。和美元走势直接挂钩的大宗商品应声而涨。4月21日，国际金价隔夜纽约市场盘中再度刷新历史高点，最高至1508.9美元一线。油价则逼近32个月高点127美元。

　　这一切加速倒逼中国外储投资多元化的进程。公开数据显示，截至今年2月底，中国持有美国国债11541亿美元，仍为美国国债第一大持有国。

　　不无巧合的是，财政部副部长李勇在4月中旬亦发表文章称，2010年以来，美元和欧元的"轮番"贬值，致使中国外汇储备出现账面亏损，加大了外汇储备币种管理的难度。

　　虽然接近李勇的知情人士称，这篇文章改编自内部讲话，并无政策信号，但外汇储备币种管理的难度之大是不争的事实。外储有关人士私下表示："美元大跌时，有些人建议我们买欧元，欧债危机来了，这些人建议抛出欧元，这些话能听吗？"

　　"谁都知道鸡蛋不要放到一个篮子里，所以办法之一就是考虑一些新投资机构，尝试新的投资风格和领域。"周小川说，"方向是确定了。"

　　中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所研究员余永定表示，美国国债不是避险资产，而"停止对外汇市场的干预，将使央行甩掉来自汇率政策的干扰，集中力量对付通胀"。

　　外储投资新途

　　"专业外汇储备投资基金"，即在不同的行业领域成立诸如贵金属基金、能源基金等专门的投资基金。这一操作类似"挪威模式"。

　　挪威通过石油贸易持有了较高的外汇储备，采取的是财政部和挪威央行联合主导体制。"中国央行与挪威央行交流颇多，周小川行长还出访过挪威。"一位央行人士透露。

　　根据中国人民银行官网刊载的资料，挪威央行投资管理机构(Norges Bank Investment Management，NBIM)是央行的一个独立机构，接受挪威财政部的委托，负责政府全球养老基金的国际资产投资，并管理大部分外汇储备和政府石油保险基金。挪威石油和能源部是政府石油保险基金的所有者，央行是操作管理人。

　　挪威央行的外汇储备分为流动性组合和对外投资组合两部分。NBIM负责管理的是央行外汇储备的对外投资组合部分。挪威央行货币政策委员会负责管理流动性组合。挪威央行执行委员会确定外汇储备管理的指导方针。NBIM通过公开招标形式，将部分资金委托知名资产管理公司投资，在纽约、伦敦、上海均设有办事处。

　　德勤和央行审计部门共同承担投资管理的审计工作，分别向监管委员会提交政府全球养老基金的年度审计报告。央行审计部门需要向财政部提交NBIM的季度和年度管理报告。政府石油保险基金的账户虽然由央行管理，但该基金不包括在央行的年度财务报告中，由挪威总审计办公室审计。

　　不过，中国投资有限公司(下称中投)有关人士对于中国借鉴此模式并不乐观表示："首先是人力资源是否充足？题，这些专业人员到哪里找？激励机制能否匹配？"

　　这都是中投至今没有真正解决的问题。"中投走了四年才走到现在比较成熟的地步，别的机构还要用多少时间和成本来成长？"一位汇金高层人士说。

　　重提外汇平准基金

　　熟悉央行货币政策的人士透露，央行正在考虑设立一个基金，直接在外汇市场购买外汇，而不是由央行直接发钞去买外汇。另一位接近央行的人士介绍，他们已向外管局再度建议，将新增甚至一部分存量的外汇资产从央行资产负债表里移出来，成立外汇平准基金，用于干预外汇市场。目前有关部门正在研究这一方案。

　　外汇平准基金，是指各国用来干预外汇市场的储备基金，一般由黄金、外汇和本国货币构成。当外汇汇率上升，超出政府限额的目标区间时，就可通过在市场上抛出储备购入本币缓和外币升值；反之，当本币升值过快时，就可通过在市场上购入储备放出本币方式增加本币供给，抑制本币升值。

　　目前发行央票对冲外汇占款的做法已令央行不堪重负，业界甚至有"汇率绑架利率"的形容，意指外汇占款等操作已经影响到了央行的货币政策。比如近期存款准备金的一再提高，就令业界困惑，这是紧缩政策的一部分，还是其实是为了对冲一部分外汇占款。

　　自2003年4月22日，央行正式开始发行央行票据至今，央票付息成本已高达近万亿元。目前央票存量4万亿元，按照过去一年央票收益率的中位数2.54％计算，需要为已到期和未到期的央票支付总额约1016亿元的利息。这几乎与央行为银行的存款准备金付息约1008亿元的成本相当。

　　接近央行的人士表示，目前人民币仍有升值预期，资本持续流入状况短期不会改变。这意味着央行还需要更多的央票来对冲外汇占款，央行的付息压力也随之增大。但付息本身也会导致基础货币增加，部分抵消了冲销外汇占款的效果。数据显示，央行每年发行的央行票据的一多半都用来支付央行票据到期的本息，这也意味着其对冲外汇占款的效果是下降的。

　　中国社科院金融所所长李扬(专栏)早在2007年建议，可考虑如美国、英国、日本那样，专设外汇平准基金，主要资产为外汇，负债主要是特别债券、外汇资产债，以充分协调内部与外部经济活动，彻底根除汇率政策和利率政策相互掣肘、相互制约的制度障碍。

　　中国人民银行广州分行副行长徐诺金年初在央行《金融时报》发表署名文章称，央行可运用外汇平准基金在外汇市场上买卖外汇来调节供求，使汇率在目标范围内波动，要彻底切断基础货币和外汇储备之间的联动关系，恢复央行货币政策的主动性。

　　中投静等注资

　　"不大可能再批新机构吧？我们就等着注资呢。"面对中国外汇储备去向的大讨论，一位中投高层表示。

　　周小川在讲话中提出，在外汇储备资产管理方面，"依靠CIC(即中投)这样一些途径是不是更好一些。"他亦举例指出，2003年央行即准备投资石油，然而却苦于没有专业机构帮助进行而不了了之。

　　中投董事长楼继伟(专栏)表示，中投将大部分资产委托给专业机构进行投资。"这两年的收益率已经超过两位数。"上述接近中投的人士表示。

　　中投公司一位专项投资部人士向财新《新世纪》记者表示，近期并没有感觉到在投资风格和投资领域方面有什么太大的变化。

　　财新《新世纪》记者从接近决策层的人士那里获悉，外汇储备的分散化将不会只有中投一家承担，将考虑新的战略机制，但未必像此前成立中投时那样将外汇储备彻底从央行转移出去。

　　接近中投的人士对财新《新世纪》记者表示，最早成立中投，就是准备把基础外汇储备和超额外汇储备分开。基础外汇储备的管理以保持安全性和短期流动性为主，而超额外汇储备可适当追求高风险高回报。根据有关专家计算，基础外汇储备五六千亿美元足够应付外债等硬性支出。承担超额外汇储备管理的机构当时主要是中投。

　　然而，由于中投成立以来的发展状况及外汇储备管理体制现状等限制，"定期取得超额外汇储备、给中投再注资"没有了具体的日程表。

　　不过，他认为，央行即便成立专业基金，中投再获注资的路并没有被堵住。周小川的最新表态中，在外汇投资"鸡蛋不放到一个篮子"的分散化策略里，中投仍是其中重要的一个机构。

　　张宇哲 田林 霍侃 王紫雾　 财新网

Yuan's Role in China Trade Grows Quickly

Yuan's Role in China Trade Grows Quickly

By AARON BACK

BEIJING—About 7% of China's foreign trade in the first quarter was done in transactions denominated in yuan, up from 0.5% a year earlier, illustrating the Chinese currency's rapidly growing—though still small—international role.

China's banks handled a total of 360.3 billion yuan ($55.2 billion) in cross-border trade deals denominated in the Chinese currency in the first three months of the year, Xinhua news agency reported Monday, citing a central-bank official. The volume was up from 309.3 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of 2010, or 5.7% of foreign trade, and was nearly 20 times the 18.4 billion yuan in such deals in the first quarter of 2010, according to earlier data from the People's Bank of China.

.Until a couple of years ago, effectively all of China's foreign trade was done in dollars or, to a much lesser extent, other foreign currencies, a byproduct of the country's tight controls on the use of its currency outside its borders.

Since the global financial crisis, however, China's leaders have become increasingly determined to reduce the use of the U.S. dollar. In recent months, they have aggressively pushed the expansion of yuan trading outside mainland China, setting up Hong Kong as a trading hub and encouraging yuan trading in major financial centers such as New York and London. They also have entered into deals with Russia and Brazil to give companies the option of settling trade deals in local currency rather than in dollars. And Chinese officials have allowed some foreign firms to issue bonds in yuan, including Caterpillar Inc., McDonald's Corp. and Unilever NV.

In 2009, the government began allowing exporters and importers in certain regions to use yuan to buy or sell goods abroad with specified trading patterns. The trials started slowly—yuan deals accounted for just 0.1% of total trade in the 2009 fourth quarter—but have expanded rapidly.

The process has been helped by the government's move last June to let the yuan start appreciating against the dollar, albeit gradually. Perceptions that the yuan is undervalued and is therefore likely to appreciate have made trading companies outside China more willing to take the currency as payment.

Indeed, most of the yuan-based trade deals so far have involved Chinese companies using the Chinese currency to buy goods from others. The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a state-run think tank, said in a study issued Monday that about 80% of yuan trade in the first three quarters of 2010 was accounted for by China's imports.

Mark Williams, an economist at research firm Capital Economics, said there is likely a limit to how much foreigners will be willing to accept in yuan payments, because there are still strict curbs on their ability to invest those assets, the result of the still-extensive capital controls that help Beijing manage the yuan's exchange rate. "There's a contradiction between these aims to internationalize the currency on the one hand and to maintain your hold on the value of the currency on the other," he said. "You cannot achieve both those things over the long run."

The growing use of yuan to pay for imports also may be having the unintended effect of helping pump up the Chinese central bank's holdings of foreign currency, which soared by $197.4 billion in the first quarter, to $3.0447 trillion. That stockpile, which has more than tripled in the past five years, has created headaches for Beijing, which holds most of it in U.S. government debt and other dollar assets.

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Until a couple of years ago, effectively all of China's foreign trade was done in dollars or, to a much lesser extent, other foreign currencies, a byproduct of the country's tight controls on the use of its currency outside its borders.
.The central bank amasses those reserves because it must buy dollars that flow into the country from sources like exporters and foreign investors. In the past, when Chinese importers had to use foreign currency, they had to buy it from the central bank, which meant their purchases of foreign goods acted to reduce the size of the reserves. But payments that are made in yuan do nothing to eat into the reserves.

Economists say about $130 billion of the first quarter's increase in China's foreign-exchange reserves isn't explained by the usual causes, such as export revenue and foreign investment, indicating there may have been big inflows of speculative "hot money" during the quarter. Mr. Williams said, however, that the use of yuan to pay for imports could explain roughly $40 billion of that increase.

In other words, as long as yuan settlement is predominantly used for imports rather than exports, the central bank's efforts to internationalize the yuan will have the counterintuitive effect of increasing their holdings of dollars, and therefore the reliance on the U.S. currency—albeit perhaps not by a large amount relative to their overall size.

"Certainly this [is] going to be a trend in the future, that the more trade is settled in yuan, there is going to be a bigger accumulation of foreign-exchange assets," Mr. Williams said.

—Tom Orlik and Michael Casey contributed to this article.
Write to Aaron Back at aaron.back@dowjones.com

Hedge Fund Snapshots: Surviving the Financial Crisis

• A New Era for Hedge Funds

• Hedge Funds Bounce Back
• Fund Goes to Brink and Back
• Biggest Obstacles For Small Funds in Rules Overhaul

The hedge-fund business suffered mightily during the financial crisis and its aftermath.
With hundreds of funds having shuttered, the survivors are slowly returning to health. What's happened to them from before the crisis until today?
The Wall Street Journal spoke to a number of leading managers about the journey from late 2007 to early 2010.
—Jenny Strasburg

Raymond Dalio
Bridgewater Associates

Raymond Dalio

Westport, Conn.
Then: $58 billion
Now: $92 billion
Firm founded in 1975. Made money across the board in 2008. Uses fundamental macroeconomic research in computer-driven trading models. Known for Mr. Dalio's "Bridgewater Principles" on life and work such as "Don't confuse checklists with personal responsibility" and "Be extremely open." "I think everybody is sort of shell-shocked, and they say, 'We have to be more careful,'" Mr. Dalio says. "But in terms of their gaining real understanding of what happened and how to prevent it in the future, I don't think there was much. While the financial crisis will have an effect in producing caution-altering behaviors, that effect will wear off in time."

Lawrence Robbins
Glenview Capital Management

Lawrence Robbins

New York
Then: $9 billion
Now: $5.1 billion
Stock-picker suffered bruising losses in 2008, didn't limit withdrawals and bottomed out at $3 billion in assets. Funds recovered losses by early 2010, have brought in more than $1 billion from clients. Fond of sports analogies. Firm turned 10 years old in December. "The depth of our research process allowed us to have confidence in our investments, even though nobody else did," Mr. Robbins says. "It felt like being in a 50-round boxing bout with Mike Tyson. While we're thrilled to remain standing after the bout, we definitely don't want to do that again."

Thomas Steyer
Farallon Capital Management

Thomas Steyer

San Francisco
Then: $36 billion
Now: $21 billion
West Coast giant is 25 years old. First-ever negative year in 2008 prompted client withdrawals and firm-wide restructuring. Primary investment focus shifted back to core strategies in credit and arbitrage. Positive returns have made majority of investors whole from 2008. Mr. Steyer held firstever investor conference in late 2009, as clients demanded more transparency. Investors also can choose how much in so-called illiquid assets they want to hold. Fund raising is on hold in biggest funds. "I think the most important lesson from 2008 for us and for the industry is humility," Mr. Steyer says. "We exist to do a good job for our investors. That's a detail-oriented, daily job which requires us to watch our risk-reward profile obsessively. Tough times remind us of our basic responsibility."

Kenneth Griffin
Citadel

Kenneth Griffin

Chicago
Then: $20 billion
Now: $11 billion
High-profile 2008 losses shrank biggest hedge funds, and firm limited withdrawals. Strong performance has helped investors recoup bulk of losses, boosting executives' hopes of bringing in new money. Investment bank, started in 2009, stabilizing after string of high-level departures. Successful high-frequency trading business continues profit run. "While our boldness has served us well, we are not blind to the lessons of 2008. We were overly confident that we could weather any financial storm. Now, we are firmly grounded in the understanding that even the best-run firms ... can face almost unimaginable market forces," Mr. Griffin wrote in a Dec. 2010 client letter.

David Haley
HBK Investments

David Haley

Dallas
Then: $14 billion
Now: $5.6 billion
Below-the-radar multistrategy firm founded in 1991 lagged peers and suffered redemptions after misjudging subprime market in 2007. Had first negative year in 2008, prompting redemptions to pick up. Had plan in place to pay out withdrawals steadily. Strong recovery in returns helped reverse tide, and firm has attracted new money, including $500 million in the first quarter of this year. Firm has returned to its more traditional bets including in structured credit, emerging markets and equities. "We've been through crises before, in 1994, and then the fall of 1998. This one feels different. The changes to the industry are in some ways more impactful than from past crises. The regulatory fallout is much greater," Mr. Haley says.

James Pallotta
Raptor Group

James Pallotta

Boston
Then: $10 billion (as part of Tudor Investment Corp.)
Now: More than $200 million (at Raptor Evolution)
Stock-picker in 2008 left Tudor Investment Corp. (still run by Paul Tudor Jones) amid losses and client redemptions after making some of industry's biggest profits over 15 years. Continued his Raptor stock fund as smaller pool before returning client money in 2009. Now runs newer Raptor Evolution stock fund and invests separately through private-equity-style strategy in technology and digital-media companies. Minority owner of Boston Celtics just bought part of Italian soccer team. "I'm going to manage my money and my business the way I think they should be, rather than how others think they should be," Mr. Pallotta says.

Are Small Caps Too Pricey?

Are Small Caps Too Pricey?

By JONATHAN CHENG
The market's smallest stocks are commanding the largest premiums—and some of their biggest fans are becoming alarmed.

The Russell 2000 Index, which comprises about 2,000 stocks with small market capitalizations, is within about 2% of a record closing high. It is a milestone that it looks destined to reach well before larger peers such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index, which are off their record highs by 13% and 16%, respectively.

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Bloomberg News

The rally from the March 2009 bottom has seen the Russell 2000 rise 143%, topping the Dow's 89% gain and the S&P's 95% rise. And the Russell has continued its advance this year, rising 6.6%.
.Small companies now command the widest premium over large-cap stocks in at least a generation, based on the ratio of price to earnings. Small caps, which typically have a market value of about $2 billion or less, often do better than large-cap stocks in the first stages of a recovery. With valuations so high, some are girding for a period of underperformance by the Russell 2000.

The Russell 2000 is trading at almost 18 times one-year forward forecast earnings, a record high, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. That P/E ratio is about 1.3 times the P/E of the market's largest 200 companies as measured by Russell Indexes, according to Lori Calvasina, director of small-cap equity strategy at Credit Suisse, the highest since at least 1979, when her data begin.

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.The valuation gap has approached this level only twice before, in 1983 and 2007. After both instances, small-cap stocks vastly underperformed their larger brethren, Ms. Calvasina says.

"We're on borrowed time," she says. "We are transitioning into a new phase of leadership in which large will outperform small."

The rally from the March 2009 bottom has seen the Russell 2000 rise 143%, topping the Dow's 89% gain and the S&P's 95% rise. And the Russell has continued its advance this year, rising 6.6%.

Some of the Russell's top performers have already doubled this year, including Alon USA Energy, an oil refiner; Pharmasset, a developer of hepatitis C treatments; Vonage Holdings, a broadband messaging service; and Silicon Graphics International, a computer-server and storage company.

Only about 11% of Russell 2000 stocks are trading at less than 10 times future earnings, according to Steven DeSanctis, head of U.S. small-cap strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, who says he considers valuations "stretched."

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."There's not a lot of good value," he says. In just four months, the Russell small-cap index is approaching the gains that he forecast for the entireyear.

Small-cap investors are increasingly downbeat. In a recent Credit Suisse survey of small-cap investors, 36% of 126 respondents said they expected large-cap stocks to lead the market over the next six to 12 months, compared with 31% for small- and midcap stocks, showing a rare lack of confidence in small caps, Ms. Calvasina says.

Some argue that the Russell's surge highlights how small companies have been able to better grow revenue and cut costs in a tough economy. And that shows they may still have legs, says Bhupinder Singh, small-cap equity strategist at J.P. Morgan. He predicts the Russell, which closed on Friday at 834.99, will rise to 950 by the end of the year, a gain of about 14%.

Small caps largely outpaced bigger companies in revenue growth in the past few quarters, Mr. DeSanctis says. They also slashed costs by 10.7% during the downturn of 2008 and 2009, according to Mr. Singh, which compares with 3.2% among S&P 500 companies.

Smaller companies have also benefited disproportionately from the Federal Reserve's moves to pump liquidity into the financial system. The added cash has helped buoy all risky assets—and small caps are considered among the most risky in the stock market.

As investors tiptoe back into stock mutual funds, some argue that the investors that have so far missed the small-cap rally may be tempted to jump in. "Small-cap stocks have been persistently out of favor, even as they've been persistently outperforming large caps," says James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management. "It's doubled while nobody's been in it, and that's what allows it to keep going."

Many investors view the health of the U.S. economy as a key determinant of the future for small-cap companies, which typically rely heavily on the U.S. for business. But many believe bigger opportunities are likely to come from outside the U.S., particularly emerging markets—an advantage for the bigger, multinational companies that populate the S&P 500 and Dow.

"With the U.S. growing at only 3% and global GDP [growth] more like 4.2%, small caps are going to be hamstrung" by their relative lack of exposure to emerging markets, says Mr. DeSanctis of BofA Merrill Lynch.

Investors are expecting small caps to show 19% earnings growth for the January-to-March quarter just concluded, compared with 13% to 15% for the S&P 500, he says. But he thinks that small-cap forecast is unlikely to be achieved at a 3% economic growth rate.

Among other headwinds, the Russell 2000 is more heavily weighted toward consumer discretionary stocks than the S&P 500 and less exposed to energy stocks. If oil continues to rise, that may mean the Russell 2000 lags behind. Financial companies are significantly more heavily weighted in the Russell 2000, in favor of regional banks that are reliant on mortgage lending in the midst of a disappointingly weak housing recovery.

But if the economic recovery stays on track, as many expect, small caps may well continue to rise. "If you think the broad market has more upside, then smalls are going to lead it," says Wells Capital's Mr. Paulsen. "I don't think it'll be a two-year run in the markets led by large caps."

Mr. Paulsen says he believes the economic recovery is still in its early phases, when small-cap and cyclical stocks tend to perform the best.

"Do you think firms are overstaffed? Have they spent their cash flows yet? Is confidence too high? I think we're still in that sweet spot for small caps," he says. "Any way you date a cycle, we're still early and small caps benefit."

Write to Jonathan Cheng at jonathan.cheng@wsj.com

全球资本大鳄做空中国

全球资本大鳄做空中国　　

　　去年以来，全球“做空”中国的力量正在集结，美国《新闻周刊》把中国将因房产泡沫破裂而陷入经济崩溃，列为“2010年十大世界预测”第二位；华尔街空头大师查诺斯断言，中国房地产业的问题比迪拜严重1000倍，资产高估与信用供应过剩是主要原因，中国过多的货币造就了房地产泡沫；英国《金融时报》刊文称，中国将重蹈日本覆辙。而国际评级公司惠誉近日更是以信贷规模急剧扩大、房地产价格大幅上涨加剧了中国宏观金融稳定性所面临的风险为由，将中国的长期本币发行人违约评级的展望从稳定调整至负面，一场“做空”中国的大幕正在拉开。

　　发达国家房地产市场增长停滞，而新兴经济体房价继续飙升。近期《经济学人》发布最新全球房价排名报告显示，欧美等发达国家楼市深陷价格低洼，不断下跌的房价成为各国经济复苏的障碍。一些发达国家房地产库存规模较大，房价面临“二次探底”风险。2009年美国房地产市场附加值占GDP达到13.2%，房屋作为重要的抵押品对美国银行业4.3万亿美元房地产抵押贷款和近10万亿美元资产支持证券的质量具有关键性影响，然而美国房价依然持续下跌，目前处于2005年以来的最低点；新屋销售量和新屋开工率极其低迷，处于三十多年来的最低值，预计本轮房地产衰退对美国经济的拖累还将继续。与此相反，亚太地区等新兴市场楼市火爆异常，亚太地区目前已经显现房地产泡沫的明显信号，资本大鳄正是看好这块“肥肉”。

　　中国是选择的最佳“做空”对象，高房价问题不仅是房地产市场本身的扭曲，也是影响中国未来可持续发展和国家经济安全的重大问题。国际资本正是看到了这种扭曲，将房地产市场作为其主要的“做空”目标。一方面，吹大泡沫，去年以来，国际资本以“热钱”的形式通过各种隐蔽渠道进入房地产市场。在人民币升值预期日渐增强的情况下，流入我国房地产市场的“热钱”可以通过参与炒高房屋资产价格获取资产升值与套汇的双重收益。

　　而另一方面，资本大鳄“翻手为云，覆手为雨”，又在厉兵秣马，集结“做空”中国的动能。查诺斯、麦嘉华、格兰瑟姆等几位华尔街赫赫有名的资本大佬，不约而同“看空中国”。查诺斯宣扬，近期他募集了2000万美元的离岸基金，对赌中国房地产泡沫破裂。国际金融大鳄索罗斯裹挟万亿热钱重返香港，对中国虎视眈眈。

　　宣称“中国经济崩溃”的人，所持理由不外乎三个：投资、房地产、信贷三大领域存在泡沫，地方政府债务规模过大。这三者的关系是，首先，第一，中国的投资占经济增长的比重，无论横向还是纵向比较都明显过高。这表明中国的投资过剩，投资效率很低。其次，房地产投资占了全部固定资产投资额的1/4到1/5，房地产创造的增加值占GDP约6%，与房地产相关联的产业达到60个，房地产成为中国经济的主要驱动力；最后，房地产捆绑着土地财政和土地金融，这样低效率的投资，房地产泡沫以及对地方政府融资平台的资金支持，都会使银行的贷款质量恶化。
　　空头力量在集结为中国经济拉响了红色警报。前车之鉴教训深刻，只有经济机体强健才不会被沦为“做空”的对象。因此，中国当前最关键是要通过结构调整将中国经济内部的“虚火”降下来，要尽快通过产业结构的升级、经济结构的转换尽快摆脱房地产依赖型增长。

Asian Perspectives from PIMCO Chia-Liang Lian

Asian Perspectives

Article Introduction

• Public finances in most emerging Asian countries have improved, supported by fiscal reforms and buoyant economic growth.
• Monetary authorities in the region are focused on preserving price stability.
• The resilience of emerging Asian countries leads us to be open to adding exposure as attractive opportunities arise.

Article Main Body

The human calamities and economic costs of disaster-struck Japan continue to dominate headlines since the earthquake in March. As the world observes how the nation tries to cope with one of the most severe natural disasters in history, one attribute of the Japanese people stands out – resilience. In a recent issue of Time magazine, one university student has this to say: “After this earthquake, a lot of us feel energized for the first time. My friends... are saying, what can we do?” By most indications, Japan will turn things around and emerge stronger.

 

Asia’s Financial Tsunami in 1997–1998

 

Nearly 15 years ago, emerging Asian countries had to deal with a different kind of disaster. A financial tsunami sent economic tremors throughout the region’s hitherto fast-growing nations, beginning with Thailand. Initial policy reactions varied across countries, but denial was by far the most common. In the subsequent months, however, denial turned into acknowledgement, albeit begrudgingly.

 

The Asian crisis was fundamentally an external balance of payments crisis, and the impact on exchange rates was immediately observable. The Indonesia rupiah’s plunge from a pre-crisis average of 2,400 to a low of 16,650 to the U.S. dollar in mid-1998 brought its economy to near-paralysis. South Koreans suddenly found themselves having to adjust to a four-digit exchange rate against the U.S. dollar. Hong Kong successfully fended off intense speculation on its linked currency regime.

 

Today, emerging Asian economies face a radically different set of exogenous concerns. Nevertheless, the hard lessons learned from the financial crisis have served to place the region on a stronger footing. Healthy levels of foreign reserves underscore the need of “self-insurance” to hedge against contingencies, while policymakers target at achieving fiscal discipline and monetary prudence. Reinforcing the strong starting conditions are the region’s attributes of rising incomes, large populations and underdeveloped infrastructure. The upshot is that emerging Asian economies should continue to demonstrate resilience against global downturns, as they did since the Lehman shock in 2008.

 

Foreign Reserves as “Self-Insurance”

 

The harsh realities of the Asian crisis brought home the point of “self-insurance” through foreign reserve accumulation. South Korea presents the most striking turnaround story. From nearly exhausting its foreign exchange war chest in late 1997, its foreign reserves have risen to almost $300 billion (see Chart 1), an all-time high. While attention has been centered on the stratospheric rise of reserves in China ($3.0 trillion), new records are being set for several regional countries, including Taiwan ($393 billion), Hong Kong ($274 billion), Singapore ($233 billion), Thailand ($170 billion), Indonesia ($106 billion) and the Philippines ($66 billion).

 

Emphasis on Fiscal Discipline

 

In contrast to the current fiscal troubles in peripheral European Union (E.U.) countries, public finances in most emerging Asian countries have improved, supported by fiscal reforms and buoyant economic growth. China pulled through the 2008 Lehman crisis because it had the “will and wallet” to turn on the fiscal spigot. The impact was immediate if not dramatic, precisely because of years of under-spending due to overheating concerns. In the Philippines, the economic administration under President Benigno Aquino III has made fiscal consolidation a top policy priority. There are tentative signs of progress, with the Philippines’ 2010 GDP growth accelerating to 7.3%, the fastest pace in more than three decades.

Monetary Prudence and Inflation

In the post-Lehman period, Asian central banks were among the first to turn up the hawkish rhetoric. An easy monetary stance became increasingly incompatible with the region’s marked rebound in growth and, more importantly, a feverish housing market. Monetary authorities are particularly mindful of the lessons from the housing bubble experiences in Japan in the mid-1980s and more recently in the U.S. Importantly, the focus is on preserving price stability as a necessary condition for sustaining economic growth over the long term. To this end, we expect central banks to broaden policy tightening to include other monetary instruments, including the exchange rate.

Manageable Impact from Japan Quake

While the region is by no means immune to the impact of the Japan earthquake, we expect emerging Asia to manage well the near-term fallout from aggregate demand weakness. Indeed, the incident has not interrupted thus far the tightening cycle in emerging Asia. Instead, the policy vigilance has increased, given the threat of higher oil prices on account of evolving developments in the Middle East and North Africa. Over the past month, at least four central banks (China, India, Philippines and Taiwan) have lifted their respective rates, underscoring an ongoing theme of policy normalization.

Admittedly, manufacturing hubs in China and Southeast Asia may have to deal with the potential disruptions to the intra-regional supply chain. Visitor traffic from Japan to tourism-based countries will likely experience a drop-off. Nonetheless, we would characterize the drag as temporary over an expected bumpy course in the second quarter. Paradoxically, a few competing countries, notably South Korea, could benefit from a positive substitution effect in high-technology sectors.

We should note that Japan has become less important for emerging Asian exporters over the past two decades. Over this period, the share of Japanese demand has halved to 8% of total exports (see Chart 2). In comparison, China’s share has steadily risen to around 15% to match the U.S, although the E.U. share is the largest at 19%. In the longer term, the impact of infrastructure reconstruction in Japan should provide a boost to the region. Exporters of oil and coal, including Malaysia and Indonesia, stand to benefit.

 

 

Investment Implications

Our conviction of the resilience of emerging Asian countries leads us to be open to adding exposure as attractive opportunities arise. We continue to maintain exposure to emerging Asian currencies. We expect growing acquiescence to currency appreciation as an effective tool to keep imported sources of inflation in check. In this regard, the gradual appreciation trend in the Singapore dollar should remain intact. Despite recent gains, we believe the South Korean won and Chinese yuan remain fundamentally undervalued.

 

In external credits, select high grade, quasi-sovereign bonds in South Korea and India offer attractive reward opportunities for the risk. We look for avenues to “shake hands with governments” in countries where credit fundamentals are continuing on an upward trajectory. Specifically, Indonesia appears on track to potentially achieve investment grade status in the next twelve months. While the sovereign bonds have largely priced in the prospect of an upgrade, select higher-yielding corporate bonds offer an attractive risk-reward balance, particularly those that have demonstrated a consistent credit record. In the credit default swap market, we look to add, during periods of generalized market weakness, exposure to high quality sovereigns with strong credit metrics.  

信贷占融资总量比例逐渐下滑 今后将低于50% vs 2011年一季度金融统计数据报告

央行官员：信贷占融资总量比例逐渐下滑 今后将低于50%

　　2011年4月14日，央行在京就一季度工作举行媒体通报会。央行调查统计司司长盛松成表示人民币新增贷款在社会融资总量中占比将逐年下滑，今后会低于50%，已经不能完全反应宏观经济情况；另外商业银行表外业务替代作用提升，且小额贷款公司势头较强劲。

　　2010年，在社会融资规模总量中，56%左右为人民币新增贷款，而其余都是其他渠道融资；2011年一季度，人民币新增贷款占比为53.5%。盛松成预计若按这个趋势发展，今后应该会低于50%，而这也是国家要求的。

　　他指出，商业银行的表外业务，比如信托贷款、委托贷款、银行承兑汇票(目前有很大的量)，对人民币新增贷款的替代作用在提升。小额贷款公司势头非常稳，到目前为止大约在3000多家左右，而一季度贷款约增加2400亿左右；小额贷款公司一个月增加100多家，一季度增加了约400多家，而其中一个月增加了170多家。而之前这么大的量是不统计的，现在纳入了社会融资总量统计。

　　盛松成表示，单单控制人民币新增贷款，已经不能完全反应宏观经济的情况，而是用社会融资规模总量来取代，成为新的监测指标。



2011年一季度金融统计数据报告

　　一、2010年社会融资规模14.27万亿元，今年一季度4.19万亿元

　　初步统计显示，从2002年到2010年，我国社会融资规模由2万亿元扩大到14.27万亿元，年均增长27.8%，比同期人民币各项贷款年均增速高9.4个百分点。2010年社会融资规模与GDP之比为35.9%，比2002年提高19.2个百分点。融资结构呈现多元发展，金融对资源配置效率不断提高。一是2010年企业债融资和非金融企业股票融资分别占同期社会融资规模的8.4%和4.1%，其中企业债融资比2002年上升6.8个百分点。二是银行承兑汇票、委托贷款和信托贷款占比明显上升。2010年银行承兑汇票、委托贷款和信托贷款分别占同期社会融资规模16.3%、7.9%和2.7%，分别比2002年高19.8个百分点、7个百分点和2.7个百分点。

　　初步统计，今年一季度社会融资规模增加4.19万亿元，同比少增3225亿元。其中人民币贷款增加2.24万亿元，同比少增3524亿元；外币贷款折合人民币增加1474亿元，同比少增457亿元；委托贷款增加3204亿元，同比多增1684亿元；信托贷款增加91亿元，同比少增2047亿元；银行承兑汇票增加7611亿元，同比少增1471亿元；企业债券净融资4551亿元，同比多增1874亿元；非金融企业股票融资1558亿元，同比多增309亿元。

　　从结构看，今年一季度人民币贷款占社会融资规模的53.5%，同比低4.1个百分点；外币贷款占比3.5%，同比低0.8个百分点；委托贷款占比7.6%，同比高4.3个百分点；信托贷款占比0.2%，同比低4.5个百分点；银行承兑汇票占比18.2%，同比低1.9个百分点；企业债券占比10.9%，同比高4.9个百分点；非金融企业境内股票融资占比3.7%，同比高1个百分点。

　　二、广义货币M2增长16.6%，狭义货币M1增长15%

　　2011年3月末，广义货币余额75.81万亿元,同比增长16.6%，比上月末高0.9个百分点，比上年末低3.1个百分点；狭义货币余额26.63万亿元,同比增长15.0%，比上月末高0.5个百分点，比上年末低6.2个百分点；流通中货币余额4.48万亿元,同比增长14.8%。一季度净投放现金257亿元，现金投放回笼正常。

　　三、一季度人民币贷款增加2.24万亿元，外币贷款增加270亿美元

　　3月末，本外币贷款余额52.61万亿元，同比增长17.6%；一季度本外币贷款增加2.39万亿元，同比少增4008亿元。人民币贷款余额49.47万亿元，同比增长17.9%，比上月末高0.2个百分点，比上年末低2.0个百分点。一季度人民币贷款增加2.24万亿元，同比少增3524亿元。分部门看，拽贷款增加7557亿元，其中，短期贷款增加2833亿元，中长期贷款增加4724亿元；非金融企业及其他部门贷款增加1.48万亿元，其中，短期贷款增加7253亿元，中长期贷款增加9830亿元，票据融资减少2622亿元。3月份当月人民币贷款增加6794亿元，同比多增1727亿元。外币贷款余额4775亿美元，同比增长17.2%，一季度外币贷款增加270亿美元。

　　四、一季度人民币存款增加3.98万亿元，外币存款增加112亿美元

　　3月末，本外币存款余额76.84万亿元，同比增长18.7%；一季度本外币存款增加4.04万亿元，同比多增776亿元。人民币存款余额75.28万亿元，同比增长19.0%，比上月末高1.4个百分点，比上年末低1.2个百分点。一季度人民币存款增加3.98万亿元，同比多增545亿元。其中，拽存款增加2.67万亿元，非金融企业存款增加3844亿元，财政性存款增加3460亿元。3月份当月人民币存款增加2.68万亿元，同比多增1.12万亿元。外币存款余额2369亿美元，同比增长9.4%，一季度外币存款增加112亿美元。

　　五、银行间市场交易活跃，市场利率明显回落

　　一季度银行间市场人民币交易累计成交40.09万亿元，日均成交6681亿元，日均同比多成交1155亿元，同比增长20.9%。

　　3月份银行间市场同业拆借月加权平均利率为1.93%，比上年12月份回落0.99个百分点；质押式债券回购月加权平均利率为1.98%,比上年12月份回落1.14个百分点。

　　六、国家外汇储备增长24.4%

　　2011年3月末，国家外汇储备余额为30447亿美元，同比增长24.4%。3月末人民币汇率为1美元兑6.5564元人民币。

　　注1：社会融资规模统计数据来源于人民银行、发改委、证监会、保监会、国债登记公司和银行间市场交易商协会等部门。

　　注2：本月贷款余额已扣除2011年3月份核销历史政策性财务挂账924亿元。(央行网站)

Japanese Declare Crisis at Level of Chernobyl

Japanese Declare Crisis at Level of Chernobyl

By PHRED DVORAK, JURO OSAWA and YUKA HAYASHI

TOKYO—The Japanese government raised its assessment of the monthlong crisis at its Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant to the highest severity level by international standards—a rating only conferred so far upon the Chernobyl accident.

The Japanese government said the monthlong crisis at its Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant is on par with Chernobyl in terms of severity. WSJ's Mariko Sanchanta and Yumiko Ono discuss the public's reaction to the news.
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Gauging the Threat
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..Japan's nuclear regulators said the plant has likely released so much radiation into the environment that it must boost the accident's severity rating on the International Nuclear Event scale to a 7 from 5 currently. That is the same level reached by the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in the former Soviet Union, which struck almost exactly 25 years ago, on April 26, 1986.

"Based on the cumulative data we've gathered, we can finally give an estimate of total radioactive materials emitted,'' Hidehiko Nishiyama, spokesman for Japan's Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency, said at a press conference Tuesday.

Even as they upgraded their assessment of the situation, Japanese officials went to lengths to say that the problem they are struggling to contain isn't anywhere near the disaster of Chernobyl.

"It is quite different from Chernobyl," said Mr. Nishiyama. "First, the amount of released radiation is about a tenth of Chernobyl," he said, adding that while there were 29 deaths resulting from short-term exposure to high doses of radiation at Chernobyl, there were no such deaths at Fukushima.

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ZUMAPRESS.com

Japanese police searched for victims inside the deserted evacuation zone in Minamisoma in Fukushima Prefecture.
."At Chernobyl, the nuclear reactor itself exploded," he said, adding that at the Fukushima plant, the pressure vessel and the containment vessel were largely intact.

Still, Fukushima Daiichi operator Tokyo Electric Power Co. warned Tuesday that since the Fukushima Daiichi plant is still releasing radioactive materials, the total level of radiation released could eventually exceed that of Chernobyl, a spokesman said.

The new assessment comes as Japan admits that the effects of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident—which has already caused the evacuation of tens of thousands of people and spread radiation through groundwater and farms over a broad section of eastern Japan—are likely to be long-lasting and grave. The accident was precipitated by the massive March 11 earthquake and tsunami, which knocked out Fukushima Daiichi's power and cooling systems, causing several of the reactors to overheat.

The International Nuclear Event scale, whose development is coordinated by the International Atomic Energy Agency, measures the severity of accidents based on how much radiation is released, the degree of damage to the nuclear cores and how widespread and long-lasting the effects are likely to be.

Level 5—the previous level given the Fukushima Daiichi accident—indicates a "limited release'' of radioactive materials requiring "some planned countermeasures.'' The 1978 Three Mile Island accident in Pennsylvania was rated a 5.

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European Pressphoto Agency

The reactor building of Unit 1-2 at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station on Sunday.
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ZUMAPRESS.com

Houses collapsed by the earthquake and tsunami in Minamisoma.
.Level 7 labels this "a major accident," the most serious on the international scale. It means high levels of radiation have been released, and that the amount of time needed to bring the plant under control will require an extended period. But not all "major accidents" are equal in severity.

The decision to upgrade formally the severity of the accident came a day after Japan broadened the 12-mile nuclear evacuation zone around the plant to include all or part of five towns and villages that housed tens of thousands of people before the disaster, a sign that officials now see the long-term risks as far higher than originally estimated.

And the crisis appears far from over, with constant reminders that efforts to bring the crippled reactors under control are far from complete. Operator Tepco scrambled to keep reactors stable in the wake of another big earthquake Monday and a battery fire Tuesday morning, signs of how vulnerable the plant remains a month after the quake.

Experts have predicted it could take months for Tepco to bring Fukushima Daiichi's reactors truly under control, and years to clean up the plant itself.

Japanese nuclear regulators determined that after the accident, the plant has likely released tens of thousands of terabecquerels—or a mind-boggling tens of thousands of trillions of becquerels—of radiation in the immediate area. That's a level that's been recorded only during the Chernobyl accident.

While the new assessment puts Fukushima on a par with Chernobyl, there are key differences between the two, suggesting the Ukraine disaster was still far more serious.

In the case of Chernobyl, a graphite fire burned uncontrolled for days, spewing out radioactive smoke that spread around the world. Fukushima, unlike Chernobyl, has a containment structure, which, even if damaged, has meant that the Japanese accident has shown "much, much, much lower'' traces of far-flung radiation, Wolfgang Weiss, chair of the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, said in Vienna last week.

The release from Fukushima of tens of thousands of terabecquerels of iodine-131, while huge, appears to be smaller than the 5.2 million terabecquerels released from Chernobyl. Japanese government officials said the radiation release was between 370,000 and 630,000 terabecquerels so far from Fukushima. The permissible level of iodine-131 for vegetables and fish is 2,000 becquerels per kilogram, or just a tiny fraction of what has been released.

A 2005 United Nations study said up to 4,000 people could eventually die from radiation exposure to Chernobyl.

In Japan, so far, a handful of workers have been hospitalized, but they were released a few days later, and regulators said they showed no signs of lasting injury.

Japanese suppliers impacted by last month's quake are struggling to hang onto their business amid shortages of key components and electricity. Companies that rely on that hard-hit supply network are also rethinking their exposure to Japan.
.On Edge | Worries over Fukushima Daiichi
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..Earthquake in Japan
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.There are, however, regular reports in the Japanese press of elevated radiation exposure for the workers trying to contain Fukushima, and it could be months, or years, before the real impact is known. The same is true for the population in and around the plant.

Officials said they expanded the original evacuation zone because the acccident had lasted longer than expected.

"Japan has been doing drills for possible nuclear accidents, but they assumed that the accidents would be resolved in about 10 days," said Mr. Nishiyama, the spokesman. "We are now dealing with a crisis of a historic proportion. This has necessitated different kinds of responses than initially planned."

Even in announcing the expanded evacuation zone, Japanese officials said residents of the affected areas weren't in danger of surpassing government exposure limits anytime soon and that they have about a month to move.

Testing by Japanese, U.S. and IAEA officials shows that the radioactive contamination is spreading unevenly from the plant, creating what are known as hot spots due to wind, topography and other natural conditions that show a higher density of radioactive material compared with some areas closer to the plant.

The move will present major logistical hurdles for communities already battered by the March 11 earthquake and tsunami that damaged the plant as well as much of the surrounding countryside. The area includes towns and villages with a population totaling about 115,000 people before the crisis, though the number of people affected is likely to be far less because the government's order applies only to particular hot spots believed to have higher radiation levels, not a set radius from the plant.

Meanwhile, efforts to stabilize reactors at Fukushima Daiichi continue to be dogged by setbacks and scares, in a sign of how fragile the situation on the ground remains. On Tuesday morning, Tepco said there was a small fire at a battery unit outside reactor No. 4, which was put out shortly after being reported.

On Monday, a 7.1 magnitude quake centered in coastal Fukushima temporarily shut down power supply and makeshift cooling systems to three reactors at the plant, causing the evacuation of workers to the compound's command center. The systems remained down for nearly an hour while the evacuation remained in effect, keeping workers from switching to emergency power generators.

Tepco said the suspension didn't appear to have caused significant safety issues. But the scramble to restore power served as a reminder of how aftershocks and the risk of tsunami could upset the delicate efforts to stabilize the problems at the plant.

Is the Market Overvalued?

Stocks have rocketed from their 2009 lows. Now two prominent market thinkers see two vastly different scenarios playing out. Who is right?

By E.S. BROWNING

It's a question that is always on investors' minds, but rarely more so than right now: Is the market overvalued?

 

Bloomberg News

Hit the brakes: Robert Shiller of Yale says stocks are expensive.

Two heavyweights of financial analysis believe they hold the answer. Robert Shiller, the Yale University economist who correctly predicted the bursting of the stock market bubble in 2000 and the housing crash that started in 2006, has data that show stocks are pricey by historical measures.

David Bianco, U.S. stock strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, has been on a campaign to revise the good professor's math. Once he tweaks the calculations, he says, stocks look cheap.

The issue is more than a tempest in an academic teapot. The stock market has roared back from its March 2009 lows, doubling in value on an intraday basis in less than two years. But the last leg of the rally, which began last summer, largely has been driven by the Federal Reserve, whose policy of buying Treasury bonds to inflate asset values across the economy is set to end in June. Investors want to know whether stock prices are too frothy now, or whether they are reasonable estimations of companies' underlying earnings power.

Which side you take—Mr. Shiller's or Mr. Bianco's—depends partly on whether you are more comfortable with the analysis of an academic who works far from Wall Street and whose job is to test theories, or a Wall Street strategist who is paid to track the market closely and bring in business.

Mr. Shiller bases his analysis on a comparison of the value of the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index to its component companies' earnings results over time. Data of this kind don't predict when stocks will start to decline. They just show when stocks are getting expensive compared with their companies' earnings, a sign they could be headed for trouble sooner or later. Mr. Shiller keeps data going back to the late 19th century on his website, at www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm.

The innovation of Mr. Shiller's system is that it is designed to avoid distortions from short-term profit swings. Most Wall Street analysts compare stock prices to the previous year's profits or to analysts' predictions of future profits. Mr. Shiller takes an average of corporate profits over the previous 10 years. Long favored by sophisticated investors, that method smoothes out the business cycle, producing a measure of sustainable corporate profit that investors sometimes call normalized profit.

On that basis, Mr. Shiller's method shows the S&P 500 trading at 23 times profits, well above the historical average of 16. It doesn't necessarily mean stocks are about to fall; the S&P 500 went to a record 44 times earnings during the dot-com bubble before collapsing in 2000. But today's level isn't far from the peak of 27.5 hit before stocks fell during the financial crisis of 2007-09. At the 2009 bottom, it went down to 13 before quickly pushing higher again.

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Reuters

Go for it: David Bianco of Bank of America Merrill Lynch says stocks are a bargain.

Alternative Calculations

Mr. Bianco, who is bullish on stocks, says Prof. Shiller's measure is inaccurate, and the Wall Street strategist has taken his criticism public. Over the past year, he has written two reports offering alternative calculations.

Mr. Bianco says he began looking for ways to revise the Shiller numbers last year after a page-one article in The Wall Street Journal on the subject. Clients, he says, started using Mr. Shiller's data to contest his bullish thesis.

Mr. Bianco's massaging shows the S&P 500 trading currently at about 14.5 times his own calculation of 10-year profits, a much more attractive level than Mr. Shiller's 23 times profits.

"Clients call it the Bianco method vs. the Shiller method," Mr. Bianco says. "People call it Wall Street vs. the universities, or the Ivory Tower vs. the Bank of America Tower."

Prof. Shiller says he hadn't paid attention to Mr. Bianco's work until recently, when The Journal inquired. Prof. Shiller reviewed his calculations in light of the criticism and says he likes his math the way he did it.

"The basic analysis I have been presenting is right as is," he said in an email message.

Mr. Bianco doesn't dispute the usefulness of a 10-year average, an idea in line with the thinking of the founders of modern stock analysis, Benjamin Graham and David Dodd. He proposes to change Prof. Shiller's numbers in three ways, however, to remove what he thinks are distortions.

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First, Mr. Bianco would adjust the way corporate earnings are calculated. Instead of the as-reported profits Mr. Shiller favors, he would use what analysts call operating earnings, which don't count some of the write-offs of the dot-com bust and the financial crisis. That change sharply boosts 10-year average earnings, making price/earnings ratios look less scary.

Second, he would change the historical data to which today's numbers are compared. He prefers to compare today's numbers only to data since 1960 or 1980, a period during which P/E ratios have been higher than in the past, making current levels look less extreme. If long-term data are used, he wouldn't count the decade following 1914, on the grounds that corporate profits were distorted by World War I more than by any other modern event, even the Great Depression. Throwing out that decade also makes past P/E ratios higher, so that today's look better.

Finally, he would adjust earnings figures still higher, based on the fact that companies have been retaining a higher percentage of profits and paying lower dividends for decades. When companies retain and invest more profits, he says, earnings growth is faster and reported earnings don't fully reflect the ability of retained earnings to spur growth. He calls this the Equity Time Value Adjustment, or ETVA.

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Bloomberg News

In Bianco's corner: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel.

The debate goes well beyond Mr. Bianco and Prof. Shiller. Prof. Shiller's old friend and sometime critic, Jeremy Siegel of the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton business school, is Mr. Bianco's former professor. Mr. Siegel is siding with his student and against his friend.
Mr. Siegel agrees that earnings should be adjusted for the ETVA, and he also would massage earnings to remove some one-time charges. Earnings recorded at the depth of the financial crisis were highly unusual figures that shouldn't be used now to project future profits and stock values, he says.
"I respect Bob [Shiller] a lot. He is very thoughtful," Prof. Siegel says. "But to keep that once-in-a-75-year event in your data set, to say that is normal earnings, doesn't seem to be realistic."

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Bloomberg News

In Shiller's corner: Research Affiliates' Robert Arnott.

Dividends and Earnings

Robert Arnott, whose firm Research Affiliates LLC manages $73 billion from Newport Beach, Calif., has done his own research on one element of the debate: the relationship between dividends and earnings.
He says his work shows it is a fallacy to think that lower dividends lead to faster earnings growth. Lower dividends come when companies are worried about the future or may be spending cash hoards on big acquisitions, which can hold down earnings growth, he says.
"It is peculiar that this thesis keeps coming up year after year when it is so demonstrably wrong," Mr. Arnott says.
Like Mr. Shiller, Mr. Arnott also doesn't trust operating earnings and prefers to use those reported according to generally accepted accounting principles. Such numbers tend to show lower earnings results, but are more accurate, he says.
Mr. Arnott says he uses Shiller-style P/E calculations in his work. The figures helped persuade him to boost his U.S. stock exposure in 2009, when the 10-year P/E was low, and then cut his exposure when the P/E moved higher.
Mr. Bianco says he will have to discuss this with Mr. Arnott. "Rob is one of the best minds in the business," Mr. Bianco says.
Just to show how small the financial world can be, Mr. Arnott also has had run-ins over the years with Prof. Siegel, Mr. Bianco's former professor.
Mr. Siegel and Mr. Shiller, who despite their differences often vacation together, have been debating these issues since they were graduate students together, 40 years ago.
In the summer of 2009, walking on the beach on a barrier island near Atlantic City, N.J., they got so involved in a debate about stock-valuation methods that they briefly wandered away from their wives. They can accuse one another of errors without raising their voices, then thank each other for the critiques and talk about plans for the next vacation.
Mr. Shiller did his own calculation about the impact of declining dividends on earnings growth and concluded that it is marginal at best, not meriting any adjustment. He scoffs at the idea of eliminating the decade after World War I. He says he will think about Prof. Siegel's concern about the big write-offs.
But he is reluctant to make too many adjustments to data that he feels have painted a useful picture up to now.
"I think I should just keep it simple," Mr. Shiller says.
Write to E.S. Browning at jim.browning@wsj.com

Pimco Goes Negative on U.S. Debt

Pimco Goes Negative on U.S. Debt

By MIN ZENG

NEW YORK—Bill Gross, founder and co-chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., has turned more bearish on the U.S. government-related bonds including Treasurys, reflecting his growing worries over the country's fiscal deficit and debt burden.

After February's dumping all such holdings in Pimco's $235.98 billion Total Return Fund, the world's biggest bond fund, Mr. Gross in March placed bets wagering on further price declines in these type of securities, known as shorts in financial markets. That pushed holdings of U.S. government-related debt weighted by market value down to negative 3% by the end of March compared to zero in February and 12% in January, according to data available on the company's website on Sunday.

Mr. Gross's investment strategy is widely followed by global investors not only because of his fund's size, but his impressive record of returns. The fund has outperformed the benchmark index—the Barclays Capital US Aggregate Bond Index—over the past decade.

The exit of one of the world's smartest investors out of the U.S. government-bond market is likely to add to market anxiety as concern rises that Treasury bonds' yields could rise significantly once the Fed, so far the biggest buyer of the market, steps aside in coming months.

Because the 10-year Treasury yield, which traded at 3.583% late Friday, is a benchmark to set a wide variety of borrowing costs for U.S. consumers and businesses such as mortgage rates, a much higher yield would raise borrowing costs at a time when the U.S. economy is still healing from the 2008 major financial crisis.

A rise in yields that move inversely to bonds' prices also increases borrowing costs for the U.S. government, which has been running a fiscal deficit of over $1 trillion annually over the past two years. A last-minute deal to cut spending by lawmakers on Friday averted a shutdown of the federal government, but a big focus in coming weeks is whether Democrats and Republicans can reach a common ground to raise the $14.29 trillion debt ceiling, so the Treasury Department can continue to issue new debt to pay interest and roll over maturing debt.

In his April market outlook, Mr. Gross said he sees little value in the Treasury market given the nation's mounting debt burden. In addition to the $9.1 trillion in federal debt seen on the books, Mr. Gross is worried about the hefty portion of each year's budget that goes toward non-discretionary and entitlement spending. Including obligations for Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, the "true but unrecorded" U.S. debt is $75 trillion, Mr. Gross said, which amounts to near 500% of gross domestic product.

"[I have] been selling Treasuries because they have little value within the context of a $75 trillion total debt burden," Mr. Gross said in his outlook published on Pimco's website. "Unless entitlements are substantially reformed, I am confident that this country will default on its debt," but "not in conventional ways."

Cash was the new flavor for Mr. Gross as he boosted holdings of cash and its equivalent to 31% by the end of March, up from 23% in February and 5% in January in the fund. The holdings of mortgage-backed securities were reduced to 28% by the end of March from 34% in February and 42% in January.

U.S. government-related holdings in the Total Return Fund included nominal Treasurys, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, agency bonds and Treasury futures and options. Pimco—a unit of Allianz SE—is one of the world's biggest asset-management firms with more than $1 trillion of assets under management.

Mark Porterfield, Pimco's spokesman, didn't immediately respond to questions regarding the data. Financial blog Zero Hedge reported the data earlier on Sunday.

So far this year through Friday, the fund has handed investors a return of 1.48%, compared to a return of 0.12% from the index, according to data from fund tracker Morningstar. The fund has handed investors a return of 8.55% over the past five years, compared to 6.03% from the index.

Write to Min Zeng at min.zeng@dowjones.com

Warning Signs for Copper Market

Warning Signs for Copper Market

By CAROLYN CUI And TATYANA SHUMSKY

As analysts and investors seek clues to the strength of the recent rally in commodity prices, some are taking a closer look at the copper market, where warning signs are emerging.

Copper prices have almost quadrupled after a two-year rally, largely driven by the belief that China, the world's largest copper user, has an insatiable appetite for the metal.

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Imaginechina/Zuma Press

A Chinese factory worker monitors the production of coiled copper tubes at a copper products plant in Nantong city.

.But Chinese buyers are now facing the double whammy of higher copper prices and the government's aggressive moves to tighten credit. Moreover, evidence has recently surfaced of previously unreported copper stockpiles, a sign that much of the purchased copper hasn't been put to use. The stash is estimated by people in China and several Western banks to be around one million tons, or about 15% of the country's annual consumption.

Copper is closely watched and has been given the nickname "Dr. Copper" because it is a proven bellwether for the health of the global economy. Since the metal is used in myriad industries, a strong demand often indicates that the overall economy is expanding.

Since reaching an all-time high of $4.6230 a pound on Feb. 14, copper's rally has stalled. At one point, the metal was down 11% from its high, though it has clawed its way back and closed at $4.4950 Friday on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Official commodity inventories aren't readily released by China's government, forcing industry watchers to resort to other means—either physically scouting warehouses themselves or finding government sources—to try to determine just how much copper has actually been used.

The task has become even more daunting recently because companies and individuals have been hoarding commodities of all types—from cotton and copper to cooking oil—betting that prices will rise. With little insight into the stockpiles, analysts tend to overestimate China's real strength of consumption.

In late March, the market got a rare glimpse at the size of the potential copper overhang when the China Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association, a government-backed trade group, indicated the levels across the country could be as much as one million tons.

"The risk is that you end up with this overhang, which finally finds its way back" onto the market, said Leon Westgate, a London-based analyst at Standard Bank, who took a field trip to China last month to scout warehouses. He said he saw a glut of copper in warehouses just along the coast, which he estimates at about 700,000 tons. That "intensified" his negative feelings about copper, he said.

Most analysts still believe that China's long-term demand for commodities remains robust because of the economy's enormous size and blistering growth, but many agree that the country's successive rounds of interest-rate increases and moves to clamp down on speculation will have a negative impact on copper and other markets in the short run. Some speculators will be forced to sell their copper as a result of higher financing costs, while consumers are likely to keep their inventories low to save capital.

"The risks now appear, for the first time in quite a while, to be skewed to the downside," said Stephen Briggs, senior metals strategist of BNP Paribas.

Much of copper's surge since the middle of last year has been driven by the widely held belief that demand will exceed mining output this year, and that China will be forced to bid up prices to feed its growing economy.

.If Mr. Westgate and others are right, China is sitting on enough copper to completely offset any expected deficit. The International Copper Study Group, a Portugal-based intergovernmental organization, estimates that copper demand will exceed production by 435,000 tons this year.

It "raises the prospect of a balanced market, or even a small surplus," Mr. Westgate said.

Mr. Westgate focused on so-called bonded warehouses, storage facilities where trading houses park their goods before paying duties and officially moving them in or out of the country. The fact that much of the newly discovered copper is sitting in these types of warehouses is particularly worrisome, because the metal is just one step away from being sent into the global market. In his March 28 report, Mr. Westgate said that these warehouses were so full that some copper was being stored outside them.

Still, some analysts think the sentiment is too bearish. Given China's voracious demand, the copper stockpile at bonded warehouses can be consumed in 23 to 26 days, said Credit Suisse analyst Ivan Szpakowski, who estimated Chinese copper usage in 2010 at 9.5 million tons. China's underlying demand for copper remains robust, as indicated by the solid growth in industrial production, electricity usage and fixed-asset investment, he said.

That demand isn't reflected right now, some argue, because copper consumers—companies that make everything from brass door handles to copper wiring for iPods—are keeping their inventories low to save capital as the government tightens its credit policies. At some point, these companies will step back into the market, said Alan Williamson, a commodity strategist with Trafigura Group, a commodity-trading firm.

Some of the stockpiled copper might have already found its way back into the market. During the first two months this year, China exported 42,600 metric tons of refined copper, eight times the amount a year earlier.

"This is very unusual," said Deng Hong, a copper analyst with Maike Futures, a brokerage affiliated with Maike Group, China's largest metal importer.

Since the beginning of this year, copper inventories at designated warehouses of the London Metal Exchange have risen 17%, a sign that some copper is moving from Shanghai to London, where prices are higher.

"We expect there will be a continuous flow of copper into London" from China, Ms. Deng said.

Write to Carolyn Cui at carolyn.cui@wsj.com

货币政策谋变 社会融资总量的季度数据将首次披露

货币政策谋变 社会融资总量的季度数据将首次披露

　　金融危机后，各国央行进入新的货币政策周期，以平抑危机期间非常态的宽松货币政策影响，监管者们对原有货币政策的有效性亦进行反思，宏观审慎管理成为各国央行防范系统性风险的主流政策倾向。

　　自上世纪80年代以来，国际金融市场创新加速。过度的金融创新，又脱离监管视野之外，被认为是此次金融危机的直接因素。

　　中国银行业改革上市之后，金融领域的发展、创新也不断加快，2009年银行表外业务增长迅速，股票、债券、股权投资规模不断扩大，新增信贷规模已无法准确体现货币供应量对实体经济的影响。

　　围绕通货膨胀的起落，改革开放后，中国宏观调控政策已历经数个周期，由于利率传导机制不畅，采用的调控工具较为复杂多样。因投资推动型的经济模式，信贷规模作为货币供应量的代理变量，成为控制广义货币供应量(M2)的主要手段。但随着金融创新及直接融资市场的发展，这一方式已显过时。

　　社会融资总规模(社会融资总量)今年被决策层屡次提及，并被央行官员认为是"更为合适的统计监测指标和宏观调控的中间目标"。

　　作为中间目标，其可测性、可控性、传导性及其与宏观调控最终目标的相关性等要求就随之而生。当前，这四点都需要时间检验。因此，这一调控体系的建立及其有效性，在一定时间内仍属探索阶段。

　　在中国现有金融格局下，推行更系统性的金融调控和风险防范体系，部门鸿沟无法回避，只有建立更合理、完善的金融监管框架，这一目标方能实现。目前，金融领域的诸多发展障碍，均指向这一根源，金融改革的"顶层设计"亟需进行。

　　4月5日，中国人民银行(下称央行)宣布，自4月6日起上调金融机构人民币存贷款基准利率，金融机构一年期存贷款基准利率分别上调0.25个百分点。

　　这是央行今年以来的第二次加息。此前不久，央行还实施今年第三次上调法定存款准备金率。为抑制通胀，央行同时动用了数量和价格工具调节货币供给，而这一从紧政策取向，自去年10月便已开始。

　　金融危机之后，中国的融资市场格局亦随之发生变化。

　　来自央行的统计数据显示，原本占融资市场八成份额的银行贷款，虽然连续两年创下"天量"，但占比却直线下降。


　　2008年金融危机全面爆发时，人民币新增贷款4.91万亿元，在整个融资规模中占比为72％。2009年和2010年，银行新增贷款激增至9.59万亿元和7.95万亿元，同期占比反降为68％和56％。

　　如此反差，单以银行新增贷款为指标，已不能完全反映货币供应与实体经济的关系。

　　今年初，央行一改近几年惯例，并未设定银行新增贷款目标。而一个新的概念--社会融资总量(亦称社会融资规模)屡被提及。

　　2010年12月，中央经济工作会议首次提出要"保持合理的社会融资规模"，此后，这一表述在今年全国"两会"的政府工作报告中也曾出现。央行行长周小川亦在全国"两会"答记者问时表示，"最近除了观察贷款总量，还要注意观察社会融资总规模，也就是说，还有很多中间变量都会反映整个经济情况对货币政策的需求。"

　　接近决策层的人士透露，这一全新概念出于央行高层的最新考量，并被决策层接受，意在面对复杂的金融市场新格局，以新的监测指标，衡量金融宏观调控创造的货币量及货币流量，从而更准确地反映货币政策和实体经济的关系。

　　此后，央行调查统计司司长盛松成就社会融资总量问题连续发文，阐释其内涵和涵盖的范畴。

　　尽管如此，社会融资总量仍引起热议：现有统计涵盖的范畴能否反映整个社会融资总量？这一监测量与经济运行相关性如何？在中国现有金融发展框架下，如何实现"监测"与"调控"的有效结合？

　　诸多讨论与争议表明，这一新的货币政策的监测量，成为实际政策的调控指标，仍需时日。

　　无可否认，社会融资总量概念的提出，预示着中国货币决策者正以一种新的思路考量货币政策的制定与执行。尽管货币调控的重要变革仍有待时日，但变化已然开始。

　　金融统计变革

　　央行上下随即紧张工作，反复寻找最适当的范围。一则使之与货币政策最终目标相关，二则在条块分割的行政框架下具有可调控性

　　4月中旬，社会融资总量的季度数据将首次披露。

　　"我们将先试行公布季度的社会融资总量数据，未来条件成熟，可按月公布总量数据和各组成部分。"央行调查统计司司长盛松成4月1日在央行办公室接受《财经》杂志专访，详解社会融资总量的形成过程，并透露了该项工作的最新进展。

　　目前，央行已经与银监会、证监会和保监会建立了数据沟通机制。同时，央行也在逐步规范对信托等综合领域的统计，部分数据已经可以实时编制。

　　盛松成表示，未来将及时监测社会融资规模总量和构成变化，分析其变化特点以及与主要经济指标的关系。

　　由于直接融资市场和商业银行创新业务的快速发展，改变了以商业银行贷款为主的融资结构，货币政策仅仅调控贷款显得力度有限。央行从去年11月起，开始在内部讨论社会融资总量的概念。

　　2010年12月的中央经济工作会议，决定由央行牵头编制社会融资总量。至此，这一新的指标被决策层认可。

　　央行上下随即紧张工作，反复寻找最适当的范围。一则使之与货币政策最终目标相关，二则在条块分割的行政框架下具有可调控性。

　　为此，央行行长周小川曾在半个月内两次主持召开行长办公会，专题研究社会融资规模；分管调查统计工作的副行长杜金富，也主持召开社会融资规模专家论证会。

　　一位人民银行太原中支的人士透露，央行分支机构的相关人员也在紧张筹备、探讨、论证社会融资总量的合理范畴与具体指标，一边统计、一边研究和修正。

　　今年2月17日，盛松成首次撰文阐释社会融资总量的概念：即一定时期内(每月、每季度或每年)实体经济从金融体系获得的全部资金总额。

　　他在文中表示，央行当前执行的统计口径为：社会融资总量等于人民币各项贷款、外币各项贷款、委托贷款、信托贷款、银行承兑汇票、企业债券、非金融企业股票、保险公司赔偿、保险公司投资性房地产等各项之和。

　　3月17日、18日，央行调查统计系统工作会议在四川成都举行，议题之一就是讨论新的经济金融形势下，如何定义社会融资总量、广义货币供应量(M2)等统计量的范畴。

　　外界有所质疑的是，当前披露的社会融资统计口径中，将规模巨大的外汇占款、国债和外商直接投资(FDI)等剔除在外，可能令统计数据缺乏足够代表性。


　　央行数据显示，2010年新增外汇占款3.16万亿元，同比增长23.8％，国债净融资9753亿元，同比增长19％，当年FDI折合人民币7416亿元，同比增长15.4％。三者之和相当于2010年新增人民币贷款规模的六成。因此，央行的社会融资规模统计被一些专业人士看做意义不大。

　　盛松成表示，从地域上看，社会融资规模是实体经济从境内金融体系获得的资金总额。FDI和外债是从国外部门获取的资金；外汇占款是金融性公司收购外汇资产而相应占用的本国货币，其发行主体本质是国外部门，而在我国"双顺差"贸易结构下，其增长是被动的。他认为，FDI和外汇占款都不具备可调控性，不属于金融调控的范畴。

　　国债的发行主体为政府，筹集的资金大部分用于政府的各项日常开支，以及弥补财政赤字，并不进入实体经济生产领域。盛松成进一步解释，国债发行、兑付政策属于财政政策，与货币政策相互补充，不应该将国债作为货币政策监测指标和中间变量的组成部分。

　　一名接近央行高层的人士则认为：这三个领域的资金量足够大，应该纳入调控范围，但国债是财政资金调控的手段，属于财政政策范畴，货币政策难以插手；而其他两项统计是外部资金流，央行又缺乏调控能力。

　　私募股权、民间融资、对冲基金以及一些非金融机构的融资，由于目前没有权威的统计，暂未纳入。接近央行人士表示，央行内部仍在讨论统计监测这些指标，"一些当前未入选的指标，不代表未来不会纳入。"

　　面对这场牵涉面颇广的货币统计变革，一位人民银行分行人士透露，由于中国金融统计一直比较薄弱，缺乏科学规划，指标界定和分类不一，往往相同名称表示不同内容，中央各部门乃至央行内部的各种指标都存在口径不一的问题，梳理一套可得、可测、可比的数据并非易事。

Brazil Gives In to Surging Currency

Brazil Gives In to Surging Currency

By JOHN LYONS And TOM LAURICELLA

SÃO PAULO—Brazil appears to be waving the white flag in the currency war.

After months of tough talk to speculators and other governments driving up the Brazilian real, Finance Minister Guido Mantega seems resigned to the fact that there is little he can do to contain the currency's meteoric rise.

The currency climbed through a key barrier of 1.60 per dollar Thursday, a day after Mr. Mantega unveiled the latest in a string of controls designed to slow the real's climb. It was trading at 1.59 to the dollar late in the day, up more than 40% since late 2008.

.As Mr. Mantega announced the controls, investors were surprised to hear him acknowledge that there are legitimate reasons for the real to rise.

Some of the gains are "inevitable, because the real is a stronger currency, and the economy of Brazil is stronger than other economies, so there is an attraction and a security," Mr. Mantega told reporters in Brasilia on Wednesday as he announced an extension of a 6% tax on locals who borrow abroad—an effort to keep dollars out of Brazil.

That is a big change from his confrontational statements of last September, when he warned currency traders that the government would draw on "unlimited resources" to buy dollars and keep the real from rising. "We will not lose this game," he said at the time. The real has gained 8.5% against the dollar since that Sept. 15 speech.

Mr. Mantega declared that Brazil was in the cross hairs of a "currency war," where rich countries like the U.S. keep their currencies weak, artificially pumping up currencies in the developing world.

The Brazilian real is rising as foreign money pours into the South American nation from investors optimistic about the country's growth prospects, as well as those hoping to cash in on its 11.75% overnight interest rates, among the world's highest.

Those high interest rates have made Brazil a key global destination for the so-called carry trade, where investors borrow money in countries like the U.S., where rates are low, and deposit it in Brazil where rates are high, pocketing the difference.

One reason Mr. Mantega may be changing his tune on the currency is inflation. Some observers say Mr. Mantega may be starting to see a stronger currency as an inflation bulwark because it reduces the cost of imported goods.

Brazil's inflation rate rose 6.3% in March, officials said Thursday, well above the annual target of 4.5%. While the single-digit rate is still low for a country that had four-digit hyperinflation as recently as the early 1990s, Brazilian officials are increasingly focused on keeping it in check.

Late Thursday, Mr. Mantega unveiled a new tax on credit-card purchases designed to damp consumer demand and inflation.

Guido Mantega, finance minister of Brazil, seen above in August, now appears less than eager to roll out more heavy-handed capital controls. In part, that is because such measures can have painful side effects on business in Brazil, such as putting the brakes on the kind of long-term investment that Brazil needs.

.The challenge of rising currencies has been something that emerging-market countries have been battling to an increasing degree over the past year. But there are signs some are becoming more accommodative to stronger currencies.

"We've seen countries resist the appreciation of their currency, and as a result, they have an inflation problem," says John Baur, a portfolio manager at the Eaton Vance Global Macro Absolute Return Fund. "Now we're starting to see countries give in on the currencies and decide it's more important to fight inflation."

Investors note that some of the cash pouring into Brazil hasn't been the kind of speculative "hot money" that the capital controls are designed to fight, but instead is so-called foreign direct investment, which is longer term and unlikely to be withdrawn quickly.

"Ultimately, the flows that are causing the currency appreciation are helpful to Brazil and indicative of their success," says Sara Zervos, a portfolio manager at OppenheimerFunds. "It not hot money, it's long-term foreign direct investment—and that's the kind of flows that Brazil wants."

Since October, Brazil has tripled a tax on foreign investment in local bonds, while also taxing locals who borrow abroad.

Mr. Mantega is even taxing shoppers who use their strong currency to purchase goods outside Brazil, to urge them to shop at home.

Mr. Mantega now appears less than eager to roll out more heavy-handed capital controls. In part, that is because such measures can have painful side effects on business in Brazil, such as putting the brakes on the kind of long-term investment that Brazil needs.

"Given the level of [longer-term investment] flows that are headed to Brazil, it seems the only thing the real can do is appreciate," Mr. Baur says.

The $7.6 billion Global Macro fund has about a 3% stake betting on a rise in the real, although he says there are growing risks to the Brazilian economy from a significantly stronger currency.

Write to John Lyons at john.lyons@wsj.com and Tom Lauricella at tom.lauricella@wsj.com

The Dark Side of Strong Corporate Earnings

The Dark Side of Strong Corporate Earnings

By KELLY EVANS

A climbing stock market and strong corporate earnings aren't quite the beacons of light they once were for the U.S. economy.

.The first-quarter earnings season kicks off Monday, and it looks to be another impressive one. The number of profit-warning announcements over the past three months is near a decade low, according to brokerage firm Brockhouse Cooper. Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to rise 12% from a year ago, and that may prove conservative.

A strong earnings season could push the S&P 500-stock index to three-year highs in the 1350-to-1400 range, reckons Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategist David Bianco. Typically, stock-market gains are one of the most bullish leading indicators, and yet economists are marking U.S. growth figures down. First-quarter real gross domestic product looks to have expanded at only about a 2% annualized pace, even with the Obama payroll tax cut and the Federal Reserve's $600 billion quantitative-easing program in place.

Growth may firm up later this year. But the relative weakness with each quarter raises a question: Why isn't the U.S. economy accelerating, especially with the corporate sector in such good shape?

Perhaps because corporate earnings aren't being driven by strength in the U.S., but to some degree by its weakness. Companies have shifted production and sourcing overseas to cut costs and to tap demand in faster expanding markets. Capital spending in emerging markets like China and India has more than doubled in the past decade, and surpassed developed markets last year for the first time, HSBC estimates.

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EPA

The first-quarter earnings season kicks off Monday, and it looks to be another impressive one. The number of profit-warning announcements over the past three months is near a decade low.
.That is fostering growth abroad but undercutting prospects in the U.S. The nation's factors of production, such as factories and equipment, or capital stock, actually shrank in 2009 for the first time in postwar history. Business investment did rebound last year, but the 15% increase, which should have generated 380,000 jobs on average a month, created only 78,000, notes UniCredit economist Harm Bandholz. The rebound appears largely to have been maintenance-driven, and investment has leveled off since.

The shifting of investment overseas and erosion of the nation's capital stock are no small matter. They imply a lower potential growth rate for the U.S. and higher structural unemployment. As that reality dawns, the corporate sector's strength may start to lose its luster.

Write to Kelly Evans at kelly.evans@wsj.com