Personal Income and Outlays 03 2011

Stocks Shining as Bonds Lose Luster

By JONATHAN CHENG And TOM LAURICELLA

The U.S. stock market has powered back in the face of major global uncertainty. It may have bond investors to thank for that.

Money managers and advisers say there has been a steady undercurrent of cash heading out of bonds and into equities. While there remains unease about U.S. fiscal policy, with the Federal Reserve having pinned interest rates essentially at zero for so long, investors are capitulating and moving into stocks.

"We're in the early innings of a big asset allocation shift," says Jason DeSena Trennert, chief investment strategist at Strategas Research Partners.

That, some suggest, is what helped stocks rally last week despite spreading political turmoil in the Middle East, sustained higher oil prices, the ongoing nuclear crisis in Japan and looming problems for Portugal.

Analysts say investors, tired of earning nothing on their cash, are taking advantage of dips in the stock market to buy. Above, a trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange last week.

 

"These kinds of events two years ago would have produced a significant de-risking" in which investors bail out of stocks, says Erin Browne, director of macro trading at Citigroup. "And we didn't see that."

Analysts say investors, tired of earning nothing on their cash, are taking advantage of dips in the stock market to buy. That sentiment has been largely missing since late 2008 amid the drubbing that was handed to many who tried to pick the bottom of that brutal bear market.

The recent inclination to buy the dips has been particularly strong among investors who missed the market's big rally since March 2009 because they were sitting in cash or gravitating toward bonds.

While the Dow Jones Industrial Average did decline in the first half of this month, losing 5% through March 16, it rallied back just as quickly and is now back where it started the month. On Friday, the Dow gained 50.03 points, or 0.4%, to close at 12220.59, its sixth gain in seven sessions.

After domestic stock funds registered outflows in the early part of March—to the tune of $5.6 billion, according to the Investment Company Institute—there is evidence that investors moved back into equity funds in recent days, according to global fund-flow tracker EPFR Global.

Driving this trend has been increased confidence that the U.S. economy, while still weak when it comes to housing and job growth, is well on its way to a self-sustaining recovery. And with the simple passage of time from the worst of the financial crisis in 2008, investors are less worried about protecting their money at all costs.

"You had a lot of people at the beginning of the year still not believers in the economy; I think more people are believers now," said Michael Strauss, chief economist and market strategist at Commonfund.

In one shift, some investors are less enthusiastic about the outlook for corporate and high-yield bonds than in the earlier stages of the recovery. The market value of the Barclays U.S. High Yield Index roughly doubled over the past 18 months to $968 billion, and few see similar gains ahead.
"The once-in-a-lifetime opportunity in credit is gone," said Leon Cooperman, chairman of hedge-fund manager Omega Advisors, at a conference sponsored by Strategas last week. And Treasurys "are screaming to be shorted," Mr. Cooperman added.

That leaves stocks. "At worst, stocks are the best house in a bad neighborhood," Mr. Cooperman said. If the U.S. can address its fiscal problems, "they could be the best house in a good neighborhood."

Making investors comfortable with stocks, even two years into a bull market, is that valuations aren't extreme by most measures. Stocks "are cheap relative to history, they're cheap relative to inflation and they're cheap relative to interest rates," Mr. Cooperman said.

Stocks are trading at a price equivalent to 13 times earnings, compared with the average of the past 10 years of about 17 times, according to FactSet.

A shift into stocks and out of bonds is exactly what the Federal Reserve had been hoping for when it started its second round of quantitative easing last year.

By pumping cash into the financial system, the Fed was aiming to force investors to move into riskier investments, such as stocks, that could eventually feed through into the broader economy.

"It's a desire of the Fed to push money out of shorter-term riskless instruments and into riskier things, like stocks," says G. Scott Clemons, chief investment strategist for Brown Brothers Harriman.

According to the ICI, the amount of money in money-market funds has come down steadily over the past four weeks, from $2.75 trillion at the beginning of March to $2.73 trillion last week. Much of that money is likely to be flowing into the equity markets, say those who watch fund flows.

After a 24% jump in the Dow between the end of August and mid-February, many investors were waiting for a pullback before jumping into stocks.

For some, that point came in mid-March and, in particular, on March 16, when the Dow fell by as much as 300 points amid fears of a nuclear meltdown in Japan. In the days since, the market has moved higher as investors bet the worst was over in Japan and the Middle East. They also figured those events would have relatively little impact on the U.S. economy.

As well, investors deemed the spike in oil prices a relatively minor drag on the economy.

"If you were worried about Japan or the Middle East or oil and sell stocks, what do you do with the proceeds?" Mr. Clemons says. "Put it in cash, where you earn nothing and are eroded by inflation? You could buy bonds, but yields are so low that the tradeoff of risk to yield isn't terribly attractive."
Write to Jonathan Cheng at jonathan.cheng@wsj.com and Tom Lauricella at tom.lauricella@wsj.com

期指巨头针锋相对 市场气氛偏多

　　期指巨头针锋相对 市场气氛偏多

　　上周五市场多头人气有所回升，沪深300指数放量上涨，股指期货四个合约的总成交量和持仓量较上周四明显放大。从更长的一个时间段看，期指四个合约的总持仓量创出了3月15日以来的新高，不过成交量仍处于一个相对低位。上涨过程中持仓量的增加基本可以解读为多头主动买入占主导地位，这与沪深300指数放量上涨所反映出的信息基本一致。

　　IF1104合约前20名席位合计持买单量、持卖单量分别增加2389手、2967手，数据显示空头力量略微占优。再根据中金所公布的持仓数据简单计算，上周五前20席位的净空单量较前一日增加279手，前5和前10席位的净空单量分别增加517手、1184手，这些数据反映的信息也是有利于空头的。

　　总持仓变化与净空单量反映出的信息有些分歧，那就进一步看单个席位的持仓情况，以便能找寻出更多有价值的信息。上周五IF1104合约上增持多单最多的席位是国泰君安，增持了828手，而空单增持最多的席位是中证期货，增持了1031手。相应地两个席位的净持仓变化也针锋相对，国泰君安席位净空单上周五减持635手至1602手，中证期货增持净空单905手至4950手。两持仓巨头的分歧存在两种可能，一是对后期行情走势存在较大分歧，第二种可能是两家席位上的套保等对冲资金规模存在较大差异。

　　除了两大巨头外，对上海东证席位的净持仓变化也应加以关注，由于上周五该席位持空单量未进入前20名，所以难以准确计算出其净多单量，但即使将按第20名席位的卖单量计算，其净多单也是较上周四增加了400多手。再从更多的席位净持仓数据看，浙江永安仍是第一大多头，而空方阵营的力量悬殊仍非常大，前20席位的空头力量仍远强于多方，不过上周五众多席位的净持仓变化中有利于多方的居多。

　　虽然量价关系(总持仓与行情走势)与前20席位净持仓变化所反映出的信息有所分歧，但加上单个席位持仓数据变化所反映出的信息，我们大致可以感觉得到市场氛围仍是偏向于多方的。再结合技术形态看，沪深300指数站在了20日均线之上，RSI指标也处于强势区，短期内价格继续惯性上冲的可能性非常大，但此时仍应保持谨慎，密切关注前期高点附近的阻力。 (期货日报 长江期货 周利)

资金链倒逼房价 靴子或将落地

资金链倒逼房价 靴子或将落地
　　今年一月，国务院公布了国八条，要求各主要城市颁布限购细则；本月底，各城市将要公布房价调控的目标；在22日，发改委又出台了《规定》，要求开发商从5月1日起必须明码标价，这是继限购政策之后对房价调控政策的细化。各项政策密集压在开发商的头顶，懂点政治的开发商也必将做出让步，降低房价。然而，除了外在的政策压力促使开发商做出让步之外，还有来至内部的资金压力，并且内部的资金压力是开发商降价的根本推动力。目前开发商普遍面临资金流断裂的威胁，并且这种威胁已经越来越近。降价即将来临，对刚性需求者来说是件好事，对股市来投资说或许也是件好事，毕竟降价的时候就是靴子落地的时候。

　　去年年报显示主要开发商的现金流量状况很差，不可能长时间忍受低迷的成交量。目前共有47家房地产商公布了年报。年报显示绝大多数房地产商的每股收益同比出现了较大幅度的增长，近一半的房地产企业的收益同比上涨20%以上。虽然利润出现了很大的增长，但是资金流却出现明显的下降，并且近68%的企业的现金流量为负数，是现金流为正数的房地产企业的2倍；现金流量同比下降的房地产企业占71%，下降幅度普遍在100%以上。房地长行业是一个资金密集型行业，房地产商必将采取各种措施保障资金的供应。目前存款准备金率已经上调到20%的历史高位，2月信贷进一步缩紧，房地产商将更加缺钱。目前开发商放缓了拿地的速度和新开工建设，但这只是"节流"措施，要解决资金上的问题还得把"产品"卖出去。北京和上海的房地产交易中心数据显示，两地的2月成交量下跌都在70%以上。如果这种状态维持下去，在下半年绝大多数开发商的资金链必将断裂，留给开发商的只有一堆房子。没有资金便无法拿地，也就无法进行新项目建设，后期就没有利润来源。只有降价，才能够打破成交量低迷的现状，这是每一个开发商不得已的明智选择。

　　除了银行信贷，定金和预付款、个人按揭贷款是房地产资金的主要来源，低迷的成交量导致这两方面的资金来源大幅度下降，从而倒逼开发商降价销售。房地产资金的来源有银行贷款、利用外资、自筹资金和其他资金。外资在我国房地产中所占的比重很小，不足2%，因此外资对房地产资金链影响不大；国内银行贷款在20%左右，随着货币政策的紧缩，从银行获得贷款将会更加困难；自筹资金在房地产资金来源中占35%左右，这部分资金主要包括企业内部资金、职工和民间资金、股权融资；其他资金来源占43%左右，是房地产资金的主要来源，这部分资金包括定金和预付款、个人按揭贷款。由此可见，在银行信贷资金不断减少、股权融资并不适合绝大多数公司、企业内部资金有限的情况下，房地产企业只有增加定金和预付款以及个人按揭贷款这两个方面的资金来源。而增加这两个方面资金来源的前提条件就是房地产商必须出售房子，而不是捂盘惜售。

　　年报已经暴露了开发商的软肋，信贷的收紧、限购以及明码标价更加直指开发商的痛处，唯有降价销售才能够获得充足的现金流。当开发商手上只有一堆房子，没有现金的时候，就是房子最迟的降价时间。开发商纷纷降价的时候，也就是"靴子"落地的时候，对地产板块的股票来说，或许利空已经出尽。目前地产股在大幅下跌后底部出现了明显放大的成交量堆，说明已经有先知先觉的机构吸纳地产股。(越声理财)

外资高速入楼市获得证实 地产"限外令"基本失效

外资高速入楼市获得证实 地产"限外令"基本失效

手机免费访问　www.cnfol.com　2011年03月23日 14:22　中金在线/财经编辑部　 查看评论 　　房地产私募基金悄然集结 千亿外资“伏击”国内楼市

　　本报记者 林喆

　　当地产商的融资渠道逐一被“设限”后，“另一扇窗”正在被敲开。拥有“海外关系”的房地产企业开始利用外资布局国内楼市。2010年下半年以来，海外资金与国内房企合作、注资开发项目的案例大量浮出水面。保守估计，去年进入国内房地产业的外资总量就已超过1500亿元。

　　“走FDI途径、实行基金化运作，是外资进入国内地产项目的主要特点，而外资投资的项目绝大部分是商业地产。”阳光股份 （000608 股吧,行情,资讯,主力买卖）副总裁杨宁在接受中国证券报专访时表示。

　　通过将资金分解到国内各省市外商直投项目的额度内，或者通过境外红筹公司的票据融资，包括主权基金在内的海外资金正在潜入国内房地产业。这类外资多数以有限合伙人的身份出现，并投资于一二线城市的商业地产项目。“为分享中国城市化和人民币升值的双重收益，这类外资沉淀的期限很长，而国内很多开发商也都在试图打通这一私募融资的渠道。”业内人士坦言。

　　“合谋”主权基金

　　“境外资金尤其是东南亚的主权基金，很看好中国的持有型房地产物业。2003年以来，包括新加坡政府产业投资公司(GIC)在内的多只主权基金已纷纷进入。”杨宁介绍。

　　谋求长期稳定收益的外资与“求钱若渴”的国内地产商一拍即合。与Pre-IPO时的财务投资不同，进入房地产领域的外资在股权层面更侧重于控股权。

　　2007年4月，新加坡政府产业投资公司设立特殊目的公司(SPV)Reco Shine Pte Ltd，认购阳光股份非公开发行的1.2亿股股票，获得29.12%的持股比例，成为阳光股份的控股股东。随后，阳光股份与新加坡政府产业投资公司在土地开发和项目运营上开始“出双入对”。2008年以来，阳光股份共斥资逾30亿元相继收购家世界18个物业组成的资产包等项目，其相当一部分资金来源于新加坡政府投资公司。

　　据中国证券报记者不完全统计，目前，单与主权基金有合作的国内房企就有10余家。新加坡政府投资公司的角色类似于中国的中投公司，主要负责运用部分政府的外汇储备进行对外投资。目前，作为境外战略投资者，新加坡政府投资公司除了与阳光股份合作外，还与首创置业、凯德置地等公司有合作。

　　“在具体项目的运作上，我们和新加坡政府投资共同出资设立公司，我们负责实际运营，因此充当GP(普通合伙人)的角色，而新加坡政府投资则充当LP(有限合伙人)。收益方面，除了按股权比例分成外，我们还享有商业管理收入。”杨宁介绍。

　　在阳光股份目前运营的商业项目中，除北京地区的6个项目外，其余项目大部分由新加坡政府投资控股。以家世界资产包中位于天津的5个项目为例，新加坡政府投资的持股比例达到了90%。

　　“外资通过当地的FDI额度进来，分解成5个项目公司用来收购具体项目。我们则认购项目中的部分股权。但项目公司的具体运营则由我们全权负责。”杨宁表示。2010年上半年，阳光股份商业物业租赁收入达1.11亿元，资产交易服务及运营管理费收入1871.2万元，增长显著。

　　目前，新加坡、菲律宾、马来西亚等政府投资基金均通过类似途径进入中国。而万科、中海、华润、富力、金地、龙湖等国内一线房企的项目中也都有外资的身影。

　　外商直投激增

　　“2010年，包括主权基金在内的各路外资，进入国内地产业呈加速趋势，FDI中有近四分之一进入了房地产领域。”商务部一位官员近期透露。

　　除主权基金外，境外其他私募基金也纷纷抢滩国内楼市。2010年9月，美国私募股权基金黑石宣布联手香港鹰君集团，共同开发大连高端酒店和住宅项目。11月，荷兰GTC在中国的首家商业综合体——成都凯丹广场落成运营。12月中旬，中远集团应国资委要求，将所持远洋地产的股权全部出售；而接盘资金除香港南丰集团外，还有一家汇丰旗下的外资基金。12月底，嘉里置业、丰益国际、香格里拉(中国)公司等3家境外企业联手组建合资公司，将在东北一些城市从事房地产开发等综合业务。

　　由于境外资金进入国内房地产业的主要途径是FDI，2010年房地产领域的FDI大幅增长。商务部数据显示，去年全年全国非金融领域实际使用外资金额1057.4亿美元，同比增长17.4%；其中房地产成为吸金大户，去年全年吸收外资占22.7%，增幅超过40%。照此计算，去年流入国内房地产业的外资达240亿美元，约合人民币1590亿元。

　　据国家统计局公布的数据，去年，房地产开发企业本年资金来源72494亿元，比上年增长25.4%。其中，国内贷款增长10.3%；利用外资增长66%，利用外资的增幅高出国内贷款55.7个百分点。

　　“从外商投资的标的看，商业地产项目占比突出。”21世纪不动产市场总监林蕾表示。世邦魏理仕的报告显示，2010年，我国境内主要城市房地产大宗收购交易成交总额约为920亿元，较2009年大幅增长40%；其中外资(含港澳台)440亿元，较2009年大幅上涨94%。从外资机构投资的物业类型来看，综合、商办类物业，尤其是出租型物业受到境外机构投资者的青睐，综合、商办类成交金额占比达92%。

　　新加坡淡马锡近期透露，其全资子公司丰树集团将在今年启动一只新基金，从国际市场上募集资金，规模在10亿美元左右，依然专注于中国境内写字楼、商场和住宅物业的开发，“如果可以找到很好的投资机会，资金规模可能还会更大。”

　　地产私募基金日趋活跃

　　为了更直接地参与境内房地产市场，很多外资机构都已把在境内设立人民币私募基金提上了日程。“目前已经设立并运作的人民币私募基金还非常少，但可以看到的确有这样一个趋势。”仲联量行一位投资总监坦言。

　　“通过设立人民币私募基金，外资可以先把钱倒进来，然后再去寻找项目。而目前的模式，是先得有项目，然后才能募集外币资金。”阳光股份总裁助理吴爽表示。

　　据权威消息，上海将率先试点经许可的国外投资者投资中国的人民币私募股权和风投基金，初期规模为30亿美元。其中，允许设立中外合伙制股权投资企业，同时允许境外PE先结汇再投资。

　　与之相呼应，外币房地产私募基金已经风生水起。据不完全统计，目前国内已出现金地集团、首创置业、上海复地、盛世神州、中国海外发展等内资机构发起外币私募基金；而AXA、MPGA、PAG等外资机构也在与内地合作参与发起私募基金。相关数据显示，2010年1-11月，国内共有10只房地产私募基金成功募集18.59亿美元，基金数量与金额分别为2009年全年水平的5倍和3.4倍。

　　金地集团董事长凌克曾表示，未来房地产企业有两个发展方向，“一个是向上游发展，进入房地产金融领域，比如房地产私募基金；另一个是向下游发展，做产品线，比如老年公寓、商业地产、旅游地产等。”

　　阳光股份旗下阳光厚土基金已开始运营。杨宁介绍，在相对成熟的市场，基金一般分为核心基金、增值基金以及机会基金。核心基金持有具有稳定租金收益的物业，在收益率方面要求较低；增值基金持有现金流物业，并通过管理或再开发提升其价值，其回报要求较高；而机会基金主要投资于开发领域或者公司上市前的股权，其要求的回报最高。阳光厚土定位为核心基金，侧重于投资商业地产项目。

　　“通过商业项目的设计、建设、招商、运营及管理获得稳定租金和物业升值收益，这是一种类似于资产管理模式，以职业化的管理团队为核心竞争力。从长期来看，回报周期较长但回报率稳定的综合商业项目将逐渐成为核心基金投资的目标。”杨宁表示。

　　中国证券报 林喆

Treasurys Losing Streak Hits Three

Treasurys Losing Streak Hits Three

By DEBORAH LYNN BLUMBERG

NEW YORK—Treasurys prices dropped Monday for a third straight session as investors took heart from some encouraging pieces of news on the Japan nuclear crisis, and after the U.S. Treasury surprised the market with plans to start selling mortgage-backed securities.

Japanese authorities reported progress over the past 24 hours in containing the nuclear crisis, having made some progress in the twin goals of cooling reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant and restoring electric power to internal cooling systems. The plant was damaged in the earthquake that hit the country 10 days ago and concerns about radiation leakage have roiled global financial markets over the last week.

The news helped encourage market participants to tiptoe back into riskier assets, such as stocks, and part with low-risk U.S. Treasury securities.

"The situation is slowly getting better" in Japan, said Adam Brown, managing director of U.S. government bond trading at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York, though developments in the country remain a primary focus for the market. "Right now, this market is being driven by geopolitical events," he said, "and first and foremost is Japan."

In afternoon trading, the price of the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was off by 16/32 to yield 3.326%; the two-year's price was down 3/32 for a yield of 0.637%. Yields move inversely to prices.

Treasurys prices were also under pressure after the Treasury Department's surprise announcement that it will start selling off the $142 billion portfolio of agency guaranteed mortgage-backed securities it purchased during the financial crisis.

"The market was not prepared for this," said Tom Tucci, head of government bond trading at RBC Capital Markets. The move means more intermediate government securities will come back into the market, which will weigh especially on Treasurys maturing in the next five to 10 years.

Mr. Tucci, however, said "people who are trying to make this sound like the beginning of a rate rise are out of their minds."

The Treasury said it will sell about $10 billion a month, depending on market conditions, and could wind down the program in about a year. The government acquired the securities—mostly 30-year, fixed-rate MBS guaranteed by either Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac—from October 2008 to December 2009 to help stabilize the mortgage market.

The Treasury is selling the securities now because the market has "notably improved," according to a department statement. A Treasury official said the program could net about $15 billion to $20 billion in profits for taxpayers.

There was heavy selling after the news as some market participants misunderstood the announcement as coming from the Federal Reserve and signaling a chance in monetary policy. When those investors realized that that wasn't the case, the market managed to recoup some ground into the afternoon.

The longer-term impact of the Treasury mortgage selling on the market is likely to be subdued, Mr. Brown said, given the small amounts.

Selling "is just not that big compared to the sizes and volumes that go through the Treasurys market," said Mr. Brown.

Meanwhile, investors were also tuned into news coming from the Middle East. Allied air strikes against Moammar Gadhafi's forces in Libya further escalated a conflict that has disrupted the country's oil exports for a month. Yet the establishment of a no-fly zone calmed market participants, at least for the time being.

The development was "seen as a decisive action, which encourages risk-taking," said Richard Gilhooly, a strategist at TD Securities in New York.

Write to Deborah Lynn Blumberg at deborah.blumberg@dowjones.com

M2 Growth Becomes Less Indicative

Comments

1. Why did the central bank continue to raise RRR when M2 growth has fallen below its target?

M2 growth has been an important indicator for us to determine how severe the government’s tightening measures are.

However, M2 growth has been below expectations for two months and February’s figure was already below the 16% target

(and is not expected to rebound visibly in March), so will the government’s further RRR hikes lead to overtightning?

We think the significant slowdown in M2 growth rate cannot be explained by effective credit tightening alone. Meanwhile, the amount of the PBoC’s FX purchase remained large, as evidenced by the fact that January-February M2 growth was

significantly outsized by new loans and the PBoC’s FX purchases. If January-February M2 growth is measured by new loans and FX purchases, then February’s M2 growth should be 17.6%.

 

 

Our conclusion is that the sharp slowdown in M2 growth indicates that financial institutions’ other liabilities have

increased substantially, replacing M2 as the source of funding. Going deeper, this reflects the fast growth in direct

financing that led to disintermediation, through which some household and corporate deposits are converted to

interbank items that are not included in M2. The disintermediation process has accelerated this year, making M2

growth less indicative of market liquidity.

side, increases in interbank transactions (interbank lending and deposits) in January-February were of the second largest size, only after deposits. After being deducted by interbank transactions on the assets side, net liabilities from interbank

transactions increased Rmb440bn in January-February, more than half of the increase in deposits.

Disintermediation is the reason why banks have become more dependent on interbank transactions as a source of funding. With negative interest rate, households and enterprises are more willing to invest their funds in the form of wealth management products, funds, insurance, and stocks, through which some of their deposits are converted to interbank deposits (not included in M2).

As we can see from the balance sheet of financial institutions, on the liabilities

The central bank’s introduction of the concept of total financing means that it will not only look at M2 growth for

quantitative monetary controls, but also refer to market interest rates. The substantial pullback of repo rates

probably have been the main trigger of this RRR hike.

play a bigger role in guiding the government’s policy tightening, as market interest rates have a greater impact on direct

financing. Actually, the three RRR hikes this year all took place when repo rate pulled back (7-day repo rate dropped to 2.5% before the previous two hikes, and fell to 2% before this hike), indicating that the central bank’s final objective is to keep market interest rates at reasonable levels—neither too high or too low (may try to keep the 7-day repo rate at ~2.5-3%).

As the share of direct financing increases, market interest rates will

The People’s Bank of China announced it will raise the required reserve ratio by 0.5ppt starting from March 25, the ninth RRR

hike since last year and the third this year. After this hike, the required reserve ratio will reach 20%, well above the peak of

17.5% in 2008.

央行22日发行500亿元1年期央票

央行22日发行500亿元1年期央票

　　中国人民银行3月21日发布公开市场预告称，将于明日(3月22日)发行500亿元1年期央票，较上一期再次放量400亿元。

　　本期央票以贴现方式发行，向全部公开市场业务一级交易商进行价格招标，缴款日与起息日均为2011年3月23日，到期日为2012年3月23日。

　　本周公开市场到期资金1090亿元，较上周的1810亿缩减720亿。上周，1年期、3月期央票发行量分别扩大至100亿、500亿，央行当周并启动共计1700亿的正回购操作，最终在公开市场净回笼资金490亿，为此前连续17周净投放后，连续第二周维持净回笼。

　　央行上周五(3月18日)晚宣布，将从2011年3月25日起，上调存款类金融机构人民币存款准备金率0.5个百分点。调整后，大型金融机构的存款准备金率将提高至20%。此次调整是2011年以来央行第三次上调存准率，也是自去年以来第九次上调。分析人士指出此次上调将冻结资金接近4000亿。

　　3月公开市场到期资金达到6870亿元，即将到来的4月到期资金总量则高达7260亿。而此前央行公开市场操作一直处于净投放，无法有效对冲到期资金，这也推动资金面宽裕、资金利率不断下滑。尽管央行近两周连续上调了3个月和1年期央票发行利率，扩大了央票和正回购发行量，约对冲了4500亿元到期资金，但还有约2000多亿元有待回笼。

　　此外，3月还有2500亿-3000亿元的差别存款准备金到期，而外汇占款仍维持高位，1月外汇占款仍高达5016亿元，因此，尽管2月信贷投放从1月的1.04万亿元大幅滑落至2月的5300亿元，当月广义货币供应量M2增速也下降至15.7%，少于16%的调控目标，但央行仍面临较大的对冲流动性的压力。

　　利率方面，目前3月期央票发行利率已上调至2.7944%，已高于二级市场利率；上周1年期央票发行利率也再次上调20个基点至3.1992%，超过一年期存款基准利率。央票的市场需求也因此加大。

　　从本周1年期央票发行量再次大幅扩大来看，预计本周央行仍意在通过公开市场加大回收流动性的力度。

　　中国经济体制改革研究会副会长樊纲19日在2011中国发展高层论坛上表示，09年以来大量投资的增加、外资流入的增长大幅度提高，所以外汇储备又增加了3000多亿美元，使得货币增长在2010年进一步加速，最后导致了现在M2与GDP的比率达到190%左右。但中央货币当局通过一系列对冲政策，使得其中30%的货币是锁定不能流通的。其中，央行通过发行央票给商业银行，大概占整个货币的比率5%左右。

　　交通银行首席经济学家连平认为，随着通过公开市场操作回笼资金开始发挥作用，存款准本金率的使用频率则不会像去年这么高。不过他强调，从现在到二季度，不排除央行再次加息的可能。

　　央行行长周小川近日表示，在国民经济应对全球经济危机成功复苏后，通货膨胀也有所提高，在这种情况下，利率政策肯定会是一个需要运用的重要工具。

More Volatility Awaits the Treasury Market

More Volatility Awaits the Treasury Market

By MIN ZENG

Turmoil in Japan and the Middle East drove U.S. Treasury debt to its most volatile week in more than a month last week and traders are bracing for further big swings.

Prices are likely to be buffeted by competing forces: Japanese companies and insurers are likely to sell Treasurys as they bring yen home to finance repairs after the devastating earthquake. As the same time, worries that Japan's nuclear crisis could worsen, a well as turmoil in the Middle East, are driving other investors to buy Treasurys, seen as a haven.

A gauge of volatility in U.S. equity markets hit an eight-month high last week, while a similar measure in the Treasury market rose to the highest level since early February.

"Nothing is settled in Japan. Nothing is settled in the Middle East and potentially there are more problems in the euro zone," said Ray Remy, head of fixed-income trading in New York at Daiwa Capital Markets America Inc., one of the 20 primary dealers that trade directly with the Federal Reserve and are obligated to bid on Treasury bond auctions.

Despite a recent European Union agreement intended to address the euro-zone debt crisis, bond market participants fear trouble may flare up again at any time. Portugal's credit rating was downgraded by Moody's Investors Service last week.

Mr. Remy said support for Treasurys will also come from Japan in the near term. Dollars raised as Japan sold yen to drive down the currency are likely to be recycled into the Treasury market, he said. That could bolster demand for Treasury notes to be sold in the last week of this month, especially an auction of two-year debt, he said.

Friday, global stocks gained, while Treasurys and other haven investments fell in response to news that Libya had declared a cease-fire in its struggle against rebel groups, although fighting continued. At the same time, concerted intervention by major central banks to halt the yen's rise eased concern about the world economy.

Yet the problem of radiation from a damaged nuclear plant in Japan remained unresolved. International forces attacked Libya over the weekend, underscoring the uncertainty about the situation there. Yemen declared a state of emergency as the death toll from clashes between government forces and protesters continued to rise.

James Golden, head of Treasury trading in New York at primary dealer Jefferies & Co., expects the benchmark Treasury note's yield, which moves inversely to its price, will fall to near 3% in the next few weeks unless uncertainty about Japan, the Middle East and North Africa abates. The note's yield, which moves inversely to its price, traded at 3.277% Friday, down from the recent peak of 3.77% in early February.

But Toby Nangle, who helps oversee $51.6 billion as director of asset allocation at Baring Asset Management in London, said Treasury yields at the moment don't provide attractive value. He said that Japan's humanitarian and nuclear crisis may not have a big impact on the global economy, adding that the joint intervention by the Group of Seven industrialized nations to weaken the yen is likely to support the Japanese economy.

A stronger yen has dealt added pressure to Japan's economy by making its exports more expensive abroad. The intervention is expected to aid Japanese exporters and boost the country's recovery effort.

James Caron, global head of interest-rate strategy at primary dealer Morgan Stanley in New York, said that the 10-year note's yield hasn't fallen consistently below 3.25%, showing investors don't expect Japan's problems to affect economic growth and inflation expectations, which he said are still "pretty high."

"The market still prices in that we are going to pass Japan and Japan will fix itself," said Mr. Caron. "If anxiety is reduced, you are going to see a pretty big selloff in Treasurys. Fundamentals still support higher yields."

Some big fund managers such as Vanguard Group and Pacific Investment Management Co. are betting that Treasury bond prices will fall in coming months. By the end of February, Bill Gross, Pimco's founder and co-chief investment officer, had dumped all holdings of Treasury notes and bonds in the Total Return Fund, the world's biggest bond fund by assets.

"Once we pass the period of flight-to-quality flows, Treasury yields will rise," said Robert Auwaerter, head of the fixed-income group at Vanguard Group in Valley Forge , Pa. "We position for higher interest rates."

Mr. Auwaerter said the crisis in Japan is unlikely to undermine U.S. economic growth, adding that a rebuilding boom will emerge in Japan in coming months and Japanese investors will sell Treasurys to send funds home for the reconstruction effort.

Write to Min Zeng at min.zeng@dowjones.com

Markets Back in Lockstep as Risk Bets Return

By MARK GONGLOFF

Just when markets seemed headed back to normal, the "risk on/risk off" trade has come roaring back.
Across financial markets, trading patterns more commonly seen in 2010 are returning. Stocks and the dollar are consistently moving in opposite directions, as are stocks and Treasury securities.

It is a trading pattern that was common for much of 2010 as investors swung in and out of markets en masse–buying "risk on" investments like stocks when they felt brave, and "risk off" assets such as Treasurys and the dollar when they wanted safety.

 

That pattern broke down earlier this year, in what some had seen as a return to normalcy. But the tensions in the Middle East and nuclear crisis in Japan have seen it return, frustrating investors who are seeking to trade on fundamental factors instead of headlines. The U.S. and coalition military strikes in Libya that began this weekend could become yet another flashpoint for worry.

"We are just plagued today with the lack of long-term trends, and it's because of people reacting to the issues of the day,"said Jim Sarni, managing principal at Los Angeles money manager Payden & Rygel. "You get long-term investors trying to anticipate what hedge funds are going to do—and not do— so they don't get caught on the train tracks."

Many investors think markets could be at risk of knee-jerk moves for the foreseeable future, a result of the increasingly volatile nature of global markets, and liquidity being pumped into markets by the Federal Reserve.

In a crisis, according to the market adage, all assets are correlated, meaning that ordinarily unrelated investments suddenly swing up and down as if they are connected, as investors shed risk and hunker down. The latest episode has been a case in point.

The U.S. dollar and stock market have increasingly moved in opposite directions, in an example of what analysts call a negative correlation. That link persisted for much of 2010, but had faded dramatically earlier this year, according to data compiled by Nomura Securities International.

Theoretically, the dollar and U.S. stocks shouldn't have much of a relationship. The value of the dollar affects corporate profits, but it doesn't typically have a big impact on the health of U.S. companies and the economy. But in the risk-on/risk-off era, the dollar has become a haven to which traders retreat when they are in risk-off mode.

"For the time being, at least, it looks like we are back to risk-on/risk-off," Nomura currency strategist Anish Abuwala said.

Similarly, a negative correlation between stocks and 10-year Treasury notes, which peaked last summer, has returned, according to data compiled by research firm Birinyi Associates Inc. That is a sign that investors are dumping stocks and buying Treasurys when they flip the risk-off switch. The negative correlation between stocks and Treasurys last week was its highest since last September, according to Birinyi.

In another sign of risk aversion, the average correlation of individual stocks to the broader Standard & Poor's 500-stock index last week rose to its highest level since December, according to Birinyi data. In February, that average correlation had dropped to its lowest level in four years, a period that extends well before the financial crisis.

Still, many correlations aren't as strong as they had been. And some market relationships have changed completely. Some are taking that as a sign that the return to risk on/risk off trading may be fleeting, and that fundamentals are still playing a role in investing decisions.

"Our belief is that we are still migrating away from the risk-on/risk-off mode," said Matt Toms, head of U.S. public fixed-income investments at ING Investment Management. "We think correlations will continue to decline."

Stocks and oil prices, for example, no longer move in lock step as they did for much of last year. Then, both were considered speculative plays that investors bought when feeling frisky and sold when gripped by anxiety.

Lately, the stock-oil relationship is on the rocks. Their correlation has turned slightly negative, according to Birinyi data, as investors have worried that higher oil prices could choke off the global economic recovery.
Gold and stocks were strongly correlated last year, too, but have almost no relationship this year, according to Birinyi data.

More broadly, risky assets have shown some resilience in the face of a barrage of downbeat news, potentially a sign that investors are finally able to look past the headlines. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, at its worst, fell only about 6% from its Feb. 18 high. Junk bonds suffered an even milder decline, losing just 1% in price during that time.

A return to fundamentals would be welcome news to many investors who have been frustrated by the unpredictable and seemingly irrational nature of market moves in recent years.

One motivation for investors parking money in apparently safe bonds and dividend-paying large-cap stocks has been an aversion to being mowed down in riskier trades by hedge funds, proprietary trading desks and fast-trading computers using exotic algorithms.
The rise of exchange-traded funds, which buy and sell entire sectors or markets at a time, has tended to push correlations higher, making it harder to judge investments on old-fashioned criteria, such as whether they are expensive or cheap.
"Non-professional investors feel they don't get a fair shake, that they have no capability whatsoever to understand the forces that are really driving the market," said Dan Genter, chief executive and chief investment officer of RNC Genter Capital Management in Los Angeles. "The fact is, they're right."
Mr. Genter, like Mr. Toms, thinks fundamentals will gain power in financial markets, as the memories of recent crises fade. But both agree with the skeptics that over the longer haul, the trend is toward greater correlations and away from fundamentals.
Dramatic swings may also have been sharpened in recent years by the flood of money steadily being pumped into the market by the Federal Reserve. That easy cash almost forces investors to take big risks, although they recoil from them at the first sign of danger.
"The end of quantitative easing is going to be a pivotal event for the risk-on/risk-off mentality," said Clark Yingst, chief market analyst for brokerage firm Joseph Gunnar. "The whole thing has been facilitated by QE."
Write to Mark Gongloff at mark.gongloff@wsj.com

Coal's Return to Fashion

Coal's Return to Fashion

By ANDREW PEAPLE

Rumors of coal's demise increasingly look premature. The commodity has plenty of critics, concerned about its environmental impact. But even more-pressing safety concerns about nuclear power, after Japan's earthquake, could lead countries to raise coal usage to make up for energy shortfalls. Meanwhile, U.S. regulators this week gave coal-fired power plants some breathing space. With thermal coal supply already constrained, that should lead to higher prices—and extra profits for producers.

The delicate balance in global coal markets means any demand shift can lead to significant price swings. Major coal-producing areas such as Australia, South Africa and Colombia were hit by severe weather in the first quarter, leading to supply constraints. Deutsche Bank already expects a market deficit this year, with total seaborne thermal exports at 805 million tons and import demand at 823 million tons.

The price effect may not be uniform. Japanese demand will soften near term as coal users face production outages: Tohoku Electric Power, Japan's second-largest thermal coal importer, this week suspended its coal imports because of damage to its generating plants. Spot prices for Australian coal, the source of 70% of Japanese imports, have fallen 4% this week to $123.50. But if the plants come back online coal usage could rise in the second half. Citi estimates demand for thermal coal in Japan could increase by 7 million tons this year overall.

.In Europe the shift could prove quicker: Previous expectations of declining coal demand are now rapidly being reversed. Germany's decision to suspend seven nuclear reactors is key: The lost electricity generating capacity will have to be made up in part from coal, adding around 3 million tons of European imports in 2011. Deutsche now forecasts European prices could rise to $145 per ton next year, from around $122 now.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency appears to have softened its line on coal-fired power plants this week. The EPA wants a 91% reduction in mercury emissions from power plants, which had led some analysts to predict mass shutdowns of coal-fired stations unwilling to invest in the necessary filtration equipment. Credit Suisse, for example, forecast 60 gigawatts, or 18%, of capacity to close. But the EPA now estimates that figure at just under 10GW.

There are clouds to this rapid reassessment of coal's prospects. Natural gas could prove a cleaner, more popular replacement for nuclear power. Nuclear capacity shutdowns might prove shorter than expected. And governments may also seek to promote other energy sources like wind and solar more strongly, although these remain higher cost and less reliable than coal.

But major producers—such as Xstrata, Anglo American and Bumi Resources—could now have a powerful adjunct to the story of growing Indian and Chinese coal demand. A week is often said to be a long time in politics. For global coal markets, this last one may turn out to have been highly significant.

Write to Andrew Peaple at andrew.peaple@dowjones.com

The Story Behind the Yen's Record Surge

• By TOM LAURICELLA And KATIE MARTIN

A day after a heart-stopping rally drove the Japanese yen to one of its sharpest ascents in history, traders and bankers blamed a freak onslaught of forced buying by Japanese individual investors and hedge funds—a barrage that came at the exact time of day when the currency market is at its most vulnerable.
In what seemed like an echo of the "flash crash" in U.S. stocks last May, the Japanese yen moved 4.6% within minutes on Wednesday, a surge that drove the currency through a record that held for 16 years and wreaked havoc on trading portfolios around the world.
The move—which took the dollar from 80 yen to 76.32 shortly after 5 p.m. in New York—was one of yen's biggest in history. It snapped back almost as quickly, jumping above 79 by the time Asian markets were in full swing.

"It wasn't pretty," said Robert Sinche, global head of currency strategy at RBS Global Bank and Markets. "You had a period where there was a lot of forced buying of the yen and just nobody on the other side."
The biggest surprise was that the move occurred in one of the most actively traded corners of the world's financial markets. Trading between the dollar and the yen totals some $570 billion every day and such sharp moves are rare.
But a confluence of buying by Japanese individuals, who can make up as much as 30% of trading in the yen, and hedge funds, many of whom had been predicting the yen would fall after the devastating earthquake and tsunami, came at the least active time for the market, when many traders weren't at their desks.
Currency trading is often seen as a 24-hour affair, but every day, around 5 p.m. in New York, most of the electronic trading platforms shut down for 10 or 15 minutes. At that time, there is a changing of the guard between New York staff and Asia. Computer systems are reset. Those thin conditions also mean that currencies are vulnerable to fast swings.
The yen recovered in Asia, and traded in a fairly narrow band in the U.S. on Thursday, moving to around 78.87 late in the day but remained above its previous record.

 

A coordinated intervention in the world's currency markets as the G-7, in a very rare move, agrees to a concerted effort to drive down the yen. WSJ's Jake Lee and Hong Kong Bureau Chief Peter Stein discuss.

Still, many were surprised that the Bank of Japan stayed on the sidelines. Some predicted the bank might move after a meeting of Group of Seven officials late in the day on Thursday. Others speculated the central bank may never step in to calm the yen's ascent.
Policy makers typically avoid currency interventions, in part because they often fail to work over the long term. To succeed, they usually require a coordinated, global effort and broader policy changes. Central banks last acted together in 2000 to boost the euro. The Bank of Japan had limited success in its last effort to push down the yen in September 2010.
Throughout much of the day Wednesday, the yen was on the rise but failed to cross the 80 level. Just before 5 p.m., however, the Japanese currency suddenly broke through. At first it bounced off its all-time high of 79.75, but then a wave of yen buying, predominantly against the U.S. dollar but also against the Australian dollar, swept through the markets.
Integral Development, which operates electronic trading networks, saw a flood of yen buying out of Japan. Volumes were eight times normal, said Harpal Sandhu, president of Integral. Some 90% of the trades were for less than $100,000. Typically at that time of day, 40% of the trades are from individual investors, Mr. Sandhu said.

More

• G-7 Joins Japan in Forex Intervention
• Monster Yen Move: Just How Big Was It?
• BOJ's Latest Injection: 6 Trillion Yen
• Japan Finance Minister Calls Yen Trade 'Nervous'

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Associated Press

A candle chart displaying the conversion rates of the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen is shown at a foreign exchange firm on Thursday.

"We think there were Japanese retail traders who were placing orders prior to going to work," Mr. Sandhu says.
Many of the trades appeared to have been stop-loss orders left in the market which would automatically buy yen as the currency hit certain levels. Others were unwinding so-called carry trades, which required them to buy yen and sell other currencies.
Conditions quickly deteriorated. Banks widened the gap between the prices where yen could be bought or sold to 50 or 100 so-called pips—tiny increments of currency prices. In normal trading, spreads are around 0.8 to one pip.
At Barclays Capital, the bank's electronic trading system went offline for its routine 15-minute reset at 5 p.m. Amid the heavy trading, the bank's risk management systems delayed the restart until 5:29 p.m.
At the same time, there was a surge of forced yen buying linked to derivatives, mainly options. The first wave kicked in as the old high was breached around 79.75 yen, again around 78 yen which was hit around 5:18 p.m. and then again near 77 yen, pierced just two minutes later. That burst of buying took the yen to its high of 76.32.
David Gary, New York-based head of foreign-exchange derivatives at Deutsche Bank AG, said many investors had bet against the yen using a special kind of option called a "knockout."
An option gives its buyer the right, but not the obligation, to exchange a currency at a predetermined price in the future. Banks hedge against the risk of having to pay out clients trading such options. So, when knockout levels, such as 78 yen, were hit, Deutsche Bank and other banks had to buy more yen.
When trading did get under way in Asia, however, big Japanese players, particularly corporations, jumped in to sell yen but they retreated as the Japanese central bank remained on the sidelines.
—Neil Shah
contributed to this article. Write to Tom Lauricella at tom.lauricella@wsj.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@dowjones.com

Yen Climbs to Record Against Dollar

Traders Cite Deluge of Late-Day Buy Orders; Questions Swirl on Possibility of Central-Bank Intervention

By TOM LAURICELLA And JONATHAN CHENG

The Japanese yen rocketed to an all-time high against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday but gave back some ground in Asian trading on Thursday, as markets were buffeted by worries about the nuclear crisis in Japan.

The dollar rose to 79.31 yen Thursday in Asian trading after a sudden plunge by three yen to a record low of 76.32 yen on Wednesday. The fall, which pushed the yen more than 5% lower than late Tuesday's close of 80.81 yen, came late in the New York session and before Asian markets opened, a time when activity and staffing on trading desks generally is at its thinnest in the 24-hour-a-day currency markets.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan said it would pump five trillion yen, or about $63 billion, into money markets for a fourth consecutive day, part of its efforts to stem the currency's rise, which makes Japanese products more expensive overseas.

The yen had been on the rise against the dollar for much of the day, a continuation of a recent trend driven by talk that Japanese companies and individuals were buying yen to bring money home after last week's earthquake and tsunami. However, the yen had stopped short of piercing its previous post-World War II high against the dollar at 79.75.

It stalled at about 80 yen in part because many traders had been expecting the Bank of Japan to step in at that level. For Japan, a rising yen could further damage an economy already crippled by the earthquake and tsunami.

But when the dam broke, traders said the move was fueled by a cascade of orders to automatically buy yen once certain levels were breached. Traders said these buy orders had been left in the markets either on behalf of individual and institutional investors, or else were linked to currency derivatives.

Meanwhile, Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said Thursday that he is closely watching foreign-exchange markets, saying there have been nervous moves in thin trading conditions.

Taken together with comments by another senior Ministry of Finance official Thursday, the comments show Japanese officials appear to believe speculators are to blame for the yen's volatility, not repatriation flows back into Japan as some have conjectured.

Wednesday's move is one of the five-largest ever in the yen, according to Kathy Lien, director of currency research at Global Futures & Forex.

The surge came amid volatile trading across financial markets as speculation swirled over the fate of the nuclear plants stricken by Friday's quake. Comments from various energy officials whipsawed the markets, which already were vulnerable after enduring the political turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa. Underlying worries about the health of the U.S. economy in the wake of worse-than-expected housing data added to the fragile situation.

"It's been a very difficult time for the financial markets to sort through the headlines to figure out what's true and what is not," said Greg Anderson, a currency strategist at Citigroup Inc.

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Associated Press

A candle chart displaying the conversion rates of the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen is shown at a foreign exchange firm on Thursday.

Many in the market offered up differing reasons for the yen's strength. Some cited the beginning of repatriation by Japanese insurers of money that will be needed to pay damage claims resulting from the earthquake and tsunami. Others said the yen buying was driven in part by Japanese investors exiting riskier investments abroad.

"Japanese investors, in particular, at times of crisis bring home yen," said David Mann, currency strategist at Standard Chartered Bank. Mr. Mann said the end of March also is the fiscal year-end for many Japanese corporations, who typically would be repatriating earnings from abroad.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 242.12 points, or 2%, to 11613.30 in a session driven by speculation over the state of the reactors at Japan's Fukushima Daiichi plant. The Dow's drop was its biggest one-day slide in seven months, and sent the index briefly into negative territory for the year. The Dow is now down 5% in March. U.S. stock futures pointed to another drop Thursday as investors tried to gauge how the Japanese government will react to the yen's appreciation.

The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index and the Nasdaq Composite index tumbled into negative territory for the year, as the S&P 500 recorded declines in all of its 10 sectors.

The swings across financial markets marks a change from the start of the year when investors were becoming more comfortable that the global economic recovery was on track.
The sudden moves likely caught some traders flatfooted.
"If you are long dollar-yen, you have definitely been getting hurt over the last few days. It is a fairly popular position," said Nadeem Walji, of Duma Capital Management, a fund that makes trades on macro trends.
The question on the minds of many traders, however, was at what point the Bank of Japan will step in and whether it would ask other countries to help with the effort. U.S. officials likely would be reluctant to do that.

More

• Yen Rises as Retail Investors Exit 'Carry Trade'

The earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster, while certain to hurt the Japanese economy in the near term, doesn't appear to be turning into a threat to global economic growth. Japan is the third-largest economy in the world, but it hasn't been contributing much to global growth because its economy has been stagnant.
It is, however, a major link in the global supply chain, and its inability to bring its nuclear-power plants under control adds to global uneasiness at a time when confidence is in short supply.
The Bank of Japan has pumped roughly 45 trillion yen (nearly half a trillion U.S. dollars) into its financial system and expanded its purchases of securities to support asset values. By printing more yen, the Bank of Japan can help to hold down the currency's rise.
Broadly, "it is hard to see this as yen-positive event" in the long run, said Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard University professor and former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund. Mr. Rogoff said the Japanese government is going to need to run up an already immense debt burden to rebuild.
Some argue that given the magnitude of the crisis, the Bank of Japan will act decisively. It last intervened in September, when the yen actually was weaker than it is today against the dollar, just below 83 yen. At that time the Japanese central bank launched its biggest one-day intervention effort, buying some $20 billion in the open market.
"The BoJ could even prove more aggressive in currency markets in the current situation than it had been last year," wrote Stephan Maier, currency strategist at UniCredit Bank Milan, in a research note Wednesday.
—Jon Hilsenrath and Steve Eder contributed to this article. Write to Tom Lauricella at tom.lauricella@wsj.com and Jonathan Cheng at jonathan.cheng@wsj.com

After Japan Quake, Gas Should Eclipse Solar

After Japan Quake, Gas Should Eclipse Solar

By LIAM DENNING
Even as it reels from multiple catastrophes, investors still seem to think of Japan as the land of the rising sun: Solar power stocks have jumped sharply.

Japan's nuclear crisis has boosted a solar sector which faces chronic oversupply. Solar cheerleaders will be heartened particularly by Germany's shutdown of several nuclear power plants, since that country accounted for 40% of solar installations over the past two years, according to Credit Suisse estimates.

Solar power is safer but it cannot replace nuclear energy. In 2008, nuclear plants generated 13.5% of the world's electricity, according to the International Energy Agency. Solar power accounted for 0.06%. This understates the investment in solar power required to fill the gap, however, because nuclear plants run most of the time while solar power is by definition intermittent. In 2008, nuclear plants globally generated 80% of their total potential output. Solar units eked out 9%.

Solar power also remains relatively expensive. U.S. government projections for new plants entering service in 2016 put the total cost for electricity from solar photovoltaic units at nearly double the projected cost of new nuclear plants in 2009 dollars. Even if the latter now rise, solar power must compete with other fuels, most notably cheap natural gas. Those same government projections put the cost of electricity from modern gas-fired units at just 30% the cost of solar power.

Politically, gas faces its own problems, given concerns over shale drilling. But then solar power's higher costs and subsidies are also a political issue in these straitened times, which is why governments have been reining in incentives. Japan's tragedy could persuade them to cut the solar power industry some slack. But natural gas's better economics and reliability should make it the biggest beneficiary.

Write to Liam Denning at liam.denning@wsj.com

央票利率超越定存 央行发出加息信号

央票利率超越定存 央行发出加息信号

手机免费访问　www.cnfol.com　2011年03月15日 13:49　中金在线/财经编辑部　 查看评论 　　1年期央票发行放量 利率上行或暗示加息

央行公告，在周二上午进行的公开市场操作中，央行发行了100亿元1年期央行票据，中标价格为96.90元/百元面值，参考收益率3.1992%，较上一期操作提升20.2个基点。央行同时开展了规模为1100亿元的28天期正回购，中标利率持平于2.5%。

　　伴随上周3月期央票的放量，本周二，1年期央票发行量增加至100亿元，也改变了其连续12周的地量发行格局。不过，对于1年期央票发行利率是否会随放量发行而上行，市场仍猜测纷纷。

　　此前1年期央票发行利率已连续4周维持在2.9972%的水平上，这一利率略低于1年期定期存款利率。作为利率市场的风向标，1年期央票利率的走高可能会引发加息预期的增强，这也使得该利率的定位牵动着市场的神经。

　　中金公司认为1年期央票利率不会上调。中金公司指出，1年期央票相对于3月央票更具有指标意义，在不加息的情况下，其利率先于存款利率上调会传达一个较强的加息信号。此外，考虑到回笼成本，如果1月、3月品种能达到回笼效果，央行也不必急于增加1年期央票发行量。

继3月10日3个月央票发行利率上行16bp之后，3月15日1年期央票发行利率上升20bp，基本与二级市场央票利率持平，央行公开市场28天正回购，回笼资金1100亿元，利率2.5%，较上期上升15bp。
平安证券固定收益事业部石磊认为，1年期央票发行利率具有基准利率的信号作用，因此1年期央票发行利率上升后，市场加息预期上升，二级市场收益率小幅上涨。

　　目前市场对于央行近期加息的预期并不强烈，中信银行分析师官佳莹指出，1、2月经济数据显示，我国经济增长并没有加速，而央行刚刚在春节后加息，考虑到政策的传导存在时滞，在如此短的间隔内央行再度加息的可能性不大。

　　不过，官佳莹认为，由于发行放量，1年期央票利率上行的可能性仍然存在，但这并不暗示加息的来临。

　　“如果央行只是想平滑到期资金，3月央票利率上行就可以了，但如果想使公开市场回收流动性的功能恢复得多一点，1年期央票利率上行的可能性是不能排除的。”她说。

　　“可能会上行，”一城商行债券交易员也说，“毕竟政策紧缩的趋势仍然没有改变”。

　　该交易员表示，从今年的情况来看，1年期央票利率和加息之间不一定会联动。但未来央行仍可能继续加息。如果打破当前1年期央票利率与定存利率之间挂钩的局面，有利于促使央票发行利率市场化，避免央行再陷入被动局面中。

　　今年以来，市场强烈的加息预期推动央票二级市场利率不断走高，但1年期央票发行利率持续低于1年期定存利率，致使一、二级市场利率严重倒挂，央票持续地量发行，公开市场操作难以发挥回笼作用。显然，如果1年期央票发行利率不再与定存利率挂钩，央行有望掌控公开市场操作的主动权。

　　本周在央票和正回购操作均放量的情况下，央行有望继续净回笼资金。本周到期资金1810亿元，包括1610亿元到期央票和200亿元到期正回购。上周央行净回笼100亿元。

Japan Triggers Shift In U.S. Nuclear Debate

Japan Triggers Shift In U.S. Nuclear Debate
Alan GreenblattMarch 14, 2011, 4:31 PM
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The Exelon Byron Nuclear Generating Station in northern Illinois. Nuclear power accounts for 20 percent of the U.S. electricity supply. (Jeff Haynes/AFP/Getty Images)
The nuclear power industry had been experiencing something of a rebirth in the United States, following decades of doubt. That's been put at risk by the crisis unfolding at a nuclear power plant in Japan in the wake of a devastating quake and tsunami there.

With that situation still in flux, attention should remain focused on dealing with the immediate safety issues in Japan, says Jim Owen, a spokesman for the Edison Electric Institute, an association of electric utility companies.

"There will be plenty of time later on for a, hopefully, thoughtful dialogue," Owen says.

But officials in Owen's industry recognize that problems in Japan are bound to have repercussions when it comes to nuclear policy in the U.S. Already, some members of Congress have called for a "time out" when it comes to nuclear power plant approvals.

"There are some serious problems, even without the Japan crisis," says Richard Caperton, an energy policy analyst at the Center for American Progress, a progressive think tank.

"Even though we have a very safely operated fleet of plants in the U.S., there's always the risk that something very bad could happen," he says.

A Long Time To Recover

Nuclear power plant construction had been largely moribund in the U.S. for decades following a partial core meltdown at Three Mile Island, a nuclear plant in Pennsylvania, in 1979.

The plant's containment system was ultimately not breached. But safety concerns were heightened nonetheless — and were exacerbated by the near-simultaneous release of The China Syndrome, a popular film dramatizing nuclear meltdown.

"Nuclear orders were already down," says Tom Cochran, a senior scientist in the nuclear program at the Natural Resources Defense Council, an environmental advocacy group, "but Three Mile Island was the final straw that ended commitment to any new reactors for more than two decades."

American public support for nuclear power reached its nadir following the 1986 disaster at Chernobyl, when radioactive material escaped a nuclear power plant in Ukraine, then part of the Soviet Union. In a 1988 Harris poll, just 30 percent of Americans favored the construction of more nuclear plants. By March 2010, Gallup found that 62 percent of Americans supported nuclear power, although the industry still had a big NIMBY problem.

"I don't know if concerns about reducing our dependence on foreign oil or $4-a-gallon gas prices will trump renewed worries about nuclear power," says Karlyn Bowman, a polling expert at the conservative American Enterprise Institute.

A Nuclear Revival

President Bush embraced nuclear power as a means to help the U.S. achieve greater energy independence. And nuclear power, which accounts for 20 percent of the nation's supply of electricity, began in recent years to win over some unexpected allies in the environmental community.

Environmental activists had long been skeptical about nuclear power because of concerns about safety and disposal of toxic waste. But some embraced nuclear as a carbon-free energy source that could cut down on greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change.

"Nuclear energy is the only non-greenhouse-gas-emitting power source that can effectively replace fossil fuels and satisfy global demand," Patrick Moore, a co-founder of Greenpeace, wrote in 2005.

President Obama has expanded on Bush's nuclear energy push. Last year, the Obama administration used $8.3 billion from funds set aside by the Bush administration to help construct two reactors in Georgia.

Obama's budget, released last month, calls for $36 billion in loan guarantees for further nuclear power plant construction.

The Debate In Washington

It's that pot of money that will now be subject to greater scrutiny in Washington. On Wednesday, the House Energy and Commerce Committee, which had already been set to look into energy and nuclear funding, is set to question Energy Secretary Stephen Chu and other administration officials about the incident in Japan and its meaning for the U.S.

"I don't want to stop the building of nuclear power plants," Joseph Lieberman (I-CT), who chairs the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, said on CBS's Face the Nation Sunday. Lieberman has been a nuclear power proponent.

"But I think we've got to quietly put ... the brakes on until we can absorb what has happened in Japan as a result of the earthquake and the tsunami," Lieberman said, "and then see what more, if anything, we can demand of the new power plants that are coming on line."

Three days before the quake struck Japan, John Rowe, the chairman of Exelon Corp., which is the nation's largest operator of nuclear power plants, had said he would not be investing in any more because they cannot compete with natural gas at current prices. He also called on Congress not to expand the nuclear loan guarantee program beyond the $18.5 billion allocated under the Bush administration.

Industry Insists On Safety

Nuclear power proponents say that the domestic industry will apply any lessons available from the situation in Japan. They have traditionally stepped up safety efforts in the fact of new challenges, such as the risk of terrorism following the 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center.

"It's absolutely true that once the investigations are completed after the situation is stabilized, any lessons that can be gleaned by that will be applied by the industry, not only in the U.S. but around the world," says Owen, the Edison Electric Institute spokesman.

On its website, the Nuclear Energy Institute, an industry trade group, says it would be "premature to draw conclusions from the tragedy in Japan about the U.S. nuclear energy program."

"We remain fundamentally committed to nuclear power and the expansion of nuclear power in the U.S. as a safe and clean emissions-free source of electric generation," Owen says.

Concerns May Grow

Cochran, the NRDC scientist, says that the nuclear industry won't win with arguments that the plants in Japan faced challenges that are different from those in the U.S.

He says that the industry was able to make such a case following the 1986 Chernobyl explosions. That plant had a significantly different design from that of plants in the U.S., and the Soviet safety culture was considered weak.

"But here you have an industry, the Japanese nuclear industry, that is not too different from the U.S.," Cochran says. "Same reactors, same sort of safety culture, same concerns about not exposing the population to radiation."

The possibility of things going badly wrong — perhaps especially at coastal plants located along faults in California — is something that will draw more attention than it has in recent years, says Caperton, the energy policy analyst at the Center for American Progress, which has published studies critical of the costs of nuclear power generation.

"The American nuclear renaissance was largely overstated in the first place," he says. "Most utilities don't want to build new nuclear plants; most state regulators don't want them for rate payers; and banks won't finance them."

Aftershocks for Japan's Power Industry

Aftershocks for Japan's Power Industry

By JAMES SIMMS

The precarious situation at several Japanese nuclear reactors after last week's devastating earthquake leaves big risks hanging over the economy.

The impact of a severe nuclear accident could be broad. It would affect consumer and corporate sentiment—hardly on a high already, with the strong yen and weak government finances casting a pall over any recovery. It could also hurt Japanese companies hoping to benefit from a recent global reawakening of interest in nuclear power.

Even if an extreme nuclear situation is avoided, the damage inflicted on the Fukushima plants, as well as conventional thermal plants, has made a big dent in the region's power-generating capacity. Some one-quarter of the electricity supplied to the region served by Tokyo Electric Power, which runs the Fukushima plants, has been knocked out, the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy said. And even if conventional plants come back online faster, some reactors probably never will, after having corrosive seawater pumped into them. Any shortfall would be particularly noticeable in the peak summer months.

The region that includes Tokyo accounts for nearly 40% of gross domestic product and so far seems largely unaffected by the earthquake itself. But the knock-on effect there, from compromised generating capacity in the nearby prefecture that bore the brunt of the damage, could prove a significant drag. Given the long lead times required to replace electricity-generating capacity, that could hobble a key region of the Japanese economy for many months, if not years. Rolling blackouts already in place in and around Tokyo may just be a taste of the ripple effects to come.

Write to James Simms at james.simms@dowjones.com

Bamboo capitalism

Bamboo capitalism

China’s success owes more to its entrepreneurs than its bureaucrats. Time to bring them out of the shadows

Mar 10th 2011 | from the print edition


FEW would deny that China has been the economic superstar of recent years. Thanks to its relentless double-digit annual growth, it has become the world’s second-largest economy and in many ways the most dynamic. Less obvious is quite what the secret of this success has been. It is often vaguely attributed to “capitalism with Chinese characteristics”–typically taken to mean that bureaucrats with heavy, visible hands have worked much of the magic. That, naturally, is a view that China’s government is happy to encourage.

But is it true? Of course, the state’s activity has been vast and important. It has been effective in eradicating physical and technological obstacles: physical, through the construction of roads, power plants and bridges; technical, by facilitating (through means fair and foul) the transfer of foreign intellectual property. Yet China’s vigour owes much to what has been happening from the bottom up as well as from the top down. Just as Germany has its mighty Mittelstand, the backbone of its economy, so China has a multitude of vigorous, (very) private entrepreneurs: a fast-growing thicket of bamboo capitalism.

These entrepreneurs often operate outside not only the powerful state-controlled companies, but outside the country’s laws. As a result, their significance cannot be well tracked by the state-generated statistics that serve as a flawed window into China’s economy. But as our briefing shows, they are an astonishing force.
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The Mittel Kingdom

First, there is the scale of their activities. Three decades ago, pretty much all business in China was controlled by one level of the state or another. Now one estimate—and it can only be a stab—puts the share of GDP produced by enterprises that are not majority-owned by the state at 70%. Zheng Yumin, the Communist Party secretary for the commerce department of Zhejiang province, told a conference last year that more than 90% of China’s 43m companies were private. The heartland for entrepreneurial clusters is in regions, like Zhejiang, that have been relatively ignored by Beijing’s bureaucrats, but such businesses have now spread far and wide across the country.

Second, there is their dynamism. Qiao Liu and Alan Siu of the University of Hong Kong calculate that the average return on equity of unlisted private firms is fully ten percentage points higher than the modest 4% achieved by wholly or partly state-owned enterprises. The number of registered private businesses grew at an average of 30% a year in 2000-09. Factories that spring up alongside new roads and railways operate round-the-clock to make whatever nuts and bolts are needed anywhere in the world. The people behind these businesses endlessly adjust what and how they produce in response to extraordinary (often local) competition and fluctuations in demand. Provincial politicians, whose career prospects are tied to growth, often let these outfits operate free not only of direct state management but also from many of the laws tied to land ownership, labour relations, taxation and licensing. Bamboo capitalism lives in a laissez-faire bubble.


But this points to a third, more worrying, characteristic of such businesses: their vulnerability. Chinese regulation of its private sector is often referred to as “one eye open, one eye shut”. It is a wonderfully flexible system, but without a consistent rule of law, companies are prey to the predilections of bureaucrats. A crackdown could come at any time. It is also hard for them to mature into more permanent structures.

Cultivate it, don’t cut it

All this has big implications for China itself and for the wider world. The legal limbo creates ample scope for abuse: limited regard for labour laws, for example, encourages exploitation of workers. Rampant free enterprise also lives uncomfortably alongside the country’s official ideology. So far, China has managed this rather well. But over time, the contradictions between anarchic opportunism and state direction, both vital to China’s rise, will surely result in greater friction. Party conservatives will be tempted to hack away at bamboo capitalism.

It would be much better if they tried instead to provide the entrepreneurs with a proper legal framework. Many entrepreneurs understandably fear such scrutiny: they hate standing out, lest their operations become the focus of an investigation. But without a solid legal basis (including intellectual-property laws), it is very hard to create great enterprises and brands.

The legal uncertainty pushes capital-raising into the shadows, too. The result is a fantastically supple system of financing, but a very costly one. Collateral is suspect and the state-controlled financial system does not reward loan officers for assuming the risks that come with non-state-controlled companies. Instead, money often comes from unofficial sources, at great cost. The so-called Wenzhou rate (after the most famous city for this sort of finance) is said to begin at 18% and can even exceed 200%. A loan rarely extends beyond two years. Outsiders often marvel at the long-term planning tied to China’s economy, but many of its most dynamic manufacturers are limited to sowing and reaping within an agricultural season.

So bamboo capitalism will have to change. But it is changing China. Competition from private companies has driven up wages and benefits more than any new law—helping to create the consumers China (and its firms) need. And behind numerous new businesses created on a shoestring are former factory employees who have seen the rewards that come from running an assembly line rather than merely working on one. In all these respects the private sector plays a vital role in raising living standards—and moving the Chinese economy towards consumption at home rather than just exports abroad.

The West should be grateful for that. And it should also celebrate bamboo capitalism more broadly. Too many people—not just third-world dictators but Western business tycoons—have fallen for the Beijing consensus, the idea that state-directed capitalism and tight political control are the elixir of growth. In fact China has surged forward mainly where the state has stood back. “Capitalism with Chinese characteristics” works because of the capitalism, not the characteristics.

Quake Disrupts Key Supply Chains

By DON CLARK And YOSHIO TAKAHASHI

The earthquake that struck northeast Japan Friday forced shutdowns across a broad spectrum of the country's industries, but the bigger impact for companies could come in the weeks ahead as the disruptions make their way through the global supply chain.

The 8.9-magnitude earth quake, one of the largest on record, has crippled activity for now in a country that is a critical source of parts for consumer electronics, as well as a key producer of automobiles, auto parts, steel and other goods.

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Plants don't appear to have suffered widespread, catastrophic damage, but production delays could be enough to affect some tightly calibrated industries.

The earthquake affected operations at dozens of semiconductor factories, raising fears of shortages or price increases for a number of widely used components—particularly the chips known as flash memory that store data in hit products like smartphones and tablet PCs.

Many key chip plants, including most of the factories run by companies like Toshiba Corp. and SanDisk Corp. that account for the bulk of Japan's flash-memory production, were far removed from the quake's epicenter, and most are designed to withstand such events.

But some manufacturers are likely to be affected by other issues, particularly disruptions in transportation of finished goods to airports or ports, as well as the movement of employees and supplies to production plants. Even relatively short disruptions could further stress a supply chain already stretched tight in spots over the past year by strong demand for hot gadgets.

"This could have a pretty substantial impact for the next quarter on the whole supply chain," said Len Jelinek, an analyst at IHS iSuppli, a market-research firm that focuses on the electronics industry.

Jim Handy, another market-watcher at the firm Objective Analysis, said he expects "phenomenal" price swings and large near-term shortages as a result of the quake.

Chip companies based in Japan generated about $63.8 billion in revenue in 2010, accounting for about one-fifth of the semiconductor market, IHS iSuppli said. Their presence is felt most in the key market for what the industry calls NAND flash memory, chips at the heart of products like Apple Inc.'s iPhone and iPad. Japanese companies, led by Toshiba, account for about 35% of global flash revenue.

Toshiba is inspecting all of its factories for damage, U.S. spokeswoman Deborah Chalmers said. "In addition to delivery interruptions that may arise from factory damage, shipments of product may be affected by disruptions in road, rail, sea and air transportation within and from Japan," Ms. Chalmers said.

SanDisk, which manufactures flash memory in a joint venture with Toshiba, said its operations south of Tokyo felt "modest" impact. Spokesman Mike Wong said manufacturing operations were stopped temporarily and there was "some loss" of silicon wafers that were being processed. Operations have since resumed, but the overall impact is still being assessed, Mr. Wong said.

Companies with factories close to the quake's epicenter include Freescale Semiconductor Inc., which makes chips called microcontrollers in a factory in Sendai. Robert Hatley, a spokesman for the Austin, Tex., company, said the Sendai facility was evacuated and currently has no electrical power. The company is making plans to evaluate the plant's condition once power is restored, Mr. Hatley said.

The earthquake struck off the coast of the Tohoku region, which occupies the northern section of Japan's main island. While often overshadowed by the Pacific industrial region that lies between Tokyo and Osaka, Tohoku does host big factories for major manufacturing companies.

Auto makers reported some of the most serious damage. Honda Motor Co. said a 43-year old male employee died at its research and development center in Tochigi Prefecture, north of Tokyo, when the wall of a cafeteria crumbled. Honda added that more than 30 employees at several facilities in the same prefecture were injured. The car maker said it halted operation of three plants in Tochigi, Saitama and Shizuoka.

Toyota Motor Corp. said its two Central Motor Co. and Kanto Auto Works Ltd. subsidiaries shut two plants in Miyagi and Iwate in northern Japan. Nissan Motor Co., meanwhile, suspended operations at five factories in Fukushima, Tochigi and Kanagawa prefectures. Small fires broke out at its Tochigi and Iwaki plants but have been extinguished, it said.

The shutdowns come at a time of strong recovery in global auto sales. U.S. auto sales clocked their strongest pace in 18 months in February, and demand in China's market remains strong as well.

Ian Fletcher, senior analyst at IHS Global Insight's automotive unit in the U.K., said the auto industry recovered quickly from a smaller earthquake in the northern part of Honshu, Japan's main island, in June 2008. Friday's earthquake, he said, "is a significantly larger event."

"They will have enough components for a day or so, but the big question is how badly the supply chain has been affected," Mr. Fletcher said. He noted that in 2008 car production was disrupted when a supplier was unable to deliver piston rings.

The auto industry, which has grappled with shortages of chips and conductors over the past year, could also feel the impact of disruptions in Japan's electronics sector.

Paul Romano, chief operating officer of Fusion Trade Inc., an Andover, Mass.-based company that buys and sells electronic components, said a significant amount of components like capacitors and resistors are made in Japan. If factories are affected, "there will be a significant impact because we're coming through a shortage of electronic components," he said.

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Kyodo/Associated Press
A toppled chimney damaged a factory building in Sendai, Japan, as a result of Friday's earthquake.

The three primary Japanese suppliers that build critical parts for Boeing Co.'s 787 Dreamliner escaped major damage in Friday's earthquake, according to a senior Boeing executive.

Scott Fancher, general manager of the Dreamliner program, told reporters that the company and its suppliers—Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd., Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd. and Fuji Heavy Industries Ltd.—are still inspecting their factories and manufacturing equipment, but so far have discovered no major damage.

The Japanese firms are responsible for the 787's wing structures, main landing gear and part of the forward fuselage, underscoring the country's role in the global supply chain.

While the devastation will affect production on some scale, some economists say damage to the country's industrial base could have been much worse. "They dodged an enormous bullet with this one," said Marcus Noland, deputy director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. "Sendai isn't the industrial heartland of Japan."

The disruptions affected a wide range of industries. Consumer electronics giant Sony Corp. said it stopped operations at six electronic-components manufacturing plants in Fukushima and Miyazaki. A plant making Blu-ray discs and other products in Miyagi also experienced flooding on its first floor, Sony said.

Disneyland operator Oriental Land Co. decided to close the Tokyo Disneyland and Disney Sea theme parks on the outskirts of Tokyo Saturday, a spokeswoman said. There were about 70,000 visitors at the two theme parks when the quake hit. No injuries were reported, but with train service suspended, several thousands of people were still stuck in the parks Friday night.

Oil refiner Cosmo Oil Co. suffered a major fire at a facility in Chiba near Tokyo.

Gap Inc., which has 131 stores in Japan, said all of its roughly 6,000 employees were accounted for except for those at its outlet in a tsunami-effected area. Based on early reports, the company said its Sendai Kurax and Ikebukuro Tobu stores suffered significant damage

—Dana Mattioli, Elizabeth Holmes and Peter Sanders contributed to this article.

央行意外上调三月期央票利率 引发加息忧虑

央行意外上调三月期央票利率 引发加息忧虑

手机免费访问　www.cnfol.com　2011年03月10日 11:56　中金在线/财经编辑部　

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　　中国央行观察：央票利率升，央行力图乘势恢复OMO回笼功能

　　中国3个月期央票发行利率伴随规模放量而意外上涨，彰显央行力图乘势恢复公开市场资金回笼功能，但此举不至于降低短期内上调存款准备金率的可能性，但可能强化市场加息预期。

　　央票发行放量应归功两方面因素，首先是公开市场持续增加的到期资金释放对央行强化公开市场操作的回笼功能提出要求，而一二级央票利率倒挂局面的扭转则为此提供了契机。

　　在此背景下，央行乘势引导央票发行利率上调以巩固其投资吸引力，为进一步恢复其资金回笼功能奠定基础。

　　但从结果来看，央票发行利率的上涨难免不引发加息预期的升温，而面对近期巨大对冲压力，公开市场回笼力度的加大也很难完全取代存款准备金率的作用。

　　红顶系统数据显示，今年3、4月份中国公开市场央票及正回购协议到期资金释放量分别为6,870亿元和5,060亿元，加上估计在7,000亿元左右的外汇占款补充，3、4月份基础货币投放将达到18,000-19,000亿元。
　　面对如此汹涌的流动性增长，央行或许在考虑到存款准备金率调整空间正在缩小以及银行融资成本等诸方面因素后不得不加大央票、正回购协议发行力度。

　　而随著二级市场央票利率持续回落而刚刚被扭转的3个月期央票一二级利率倒挂局面恰好为此提供契机。
　　中债收益率曲线显示，二级市场3个月期央票收益率报2.56%。

　　中国央行周四发行320亿元3个月期央票，利率从上周的2.6314%升至2.7944%，结束为期数月的“10亿元时代”，同时也创去年10月21日以来的最大发行规模。

　　选择当前时机上调央票发行利率显示出央行希望巩固一级市场央票发行利率相对二级市场的优势，以便为未来继续用央票发行对冲流动性奠定基础。
　　加上周四发行的720亿元91天正回购协议以及周二发行10亿元1年期央票、1,100亿元28天正回购协议，本周公开市场操作也仅仅实现对同期2,050亿元到期央票的对冲而已，况且其中28天正回购协议很快又将在下月到期。

　　如果不足以有效对冲公开市场资金释放和外汇占款两方面注入，央行最终还得依赖存款准备金率(包括差别存款准备金率)政策。
　　因此判断，短期内存款准备金率上调的可能性不会下降，但会降低对存款准备金率的依赖度，较长期看也节约了其越来越小的上调空间。

　　来自一家合资基金公司的分析师则认为，周四3个月期央票发行利率的上涨或许说明一级交易商们们未必就对高过二级市场的央票利率满意，这一现象本身也证明市场对后续政策进一步紧缩抱有预期。

　　而随著作为市场风向标的央票发行利率的上涨，加息预期难免会有升温。

　　温家宝总理最新政府工作报告已明确提出“要把稳定物价总水准作为宏观调控的首要任务”，并将今年居民消费价格总水准涨幅控制在4%左右。

　　面对艰巨的调控目标，其实央行即便很快出台加息举措也非意料之外。

央行意外上调三月期央票利率 引发加息忧虑
手机免费访问　www.cnfol.com　2011年03月10日 11:56　中金在线/财经编辑部　 查看评论 　　编者按：中国央行周四发行了320亿元的3个月期央票，其参考收益率上调16个基点至2.7944%；由于央行今天还实施了720亿元的91天期正回购操作，令本周公开市场首度出现近四个月来的资金净回笼，规模达到100亿元。鉴于当前三个月期央票的二级市场收益率为2.5623%，与一级市场呈现严重倒挂，因此市场将央行本次意外上调一级市场发行收益率的行为视为加息信号……

　　3月期央票发行利率跳升16.3基点

　　中国央行10日在公开市场发行了320亿元3月期央票，发行利率出人意料地跳升了16.3基点，达到2.7944% 央行同时展开了720亿元91天期正回购，一周内回笼资金达到2150亿元，实现净回笼100亿元，结束了持续16周的净投放。

　　320亿元的3月期央票发行量较上周增加了310亿元，并且创下去年11月份以来该品种的发行量新高 。

　　上海一商业银行交易员表示，原来以为不会上调3月期利率了，毕竟一级市场利率已经超过二级市场，不再倒挂了 。

　　数据显示，目前二级市场中3月期央票成交利率在2.60%，而2.7944%的发行利率已经高出二级市场接近20基点。

　　虽然3月期央票发行放量，利率上调，但是由于近期到期资金仍然维持高位，业内人士认为紧缩政策可能还会再次使用 。


三月央票收益率走升引加息猜疑 一年央票成焦点

　　* 公开市场本周净回笼100亿元人民币,为近四个月首见

　　* 三月期央票发行收益率意外走升逾16bp至2.7944%

　　* 央行公开市场回笼资金功能逐渐恢复

　　* 是否为加息信号还需观察下周一年期央票走势

　　中国人民银行公开市场本周回笼资金重显效力,近四个月首现净回笼100亿,虽令存款准备金率调升预期有所降温,但三个月央票收益率周四意外走升,一时又扰动起了些许加息猜疑.

　　但对货币市场指标作用更强的一年期央票发行收益率维稳,因此即使本周回购利率及三个月期央票收益率均走升,业内人士仍认为,此轮利率调升主要仍是为了恢复公开市场功能,具体是否为加息前兆,关键要看下周一年期央票动向.

　　公开市场周四发行的320亿元三个月期央票,对应收益率则上涨逾16基点(bp)至2.7944%;但二级市场上,银行间债市央票到期收益率曲线<0#CCBYBMK=>显示,三个月期央票最新收益率为2.5623%.

　　由于此前在三个月期央票收益率一二级市场严重倒挂时,央行尚且维持该期央票一级市场的稳定;但却在一二级市场收益率已经几乎持平的情况下,央行反而上调一级市场发行收益率,部分市场人士对此颇感意外.

　　不过,平安证券固定收益事业部研究主管石磊指出,"本次提高央票发行利率不能被视作加息的信号,一年期央票发行利率更具基准利率的信号作用."

　　他并表示,由于目前三个月央票一二级市场利差不大,央行即使不提高发行利率,发行量也会有所上升,央行却选择了主动提高发行利率,扩大资金回笼规模,这表明央行对于目前市场上较低的回购利率认可程度明显下降,近期短端收益率下降的趋势料将逐渐被抑制.

　　华南一券商分析师亦认为,一年期央票由于对市场利率的指标作用明显,其下周的发行收益率能否变动才是关注焦点,届时可以推断央行近期是否有加息意图.

　　他同时指出,目前央行对冲流动性工具主要是一年期以内短期品种,因此有必要重启三年期央票发行,这将有助于平滑到期资金,近期应关注相关动向.三年央票目前已暂停发行了三个月.

　　央行本周二发行的10亿元一年期央票发行收益率第三次持平于2.9972%,同时进行的1,100亿元28天期正回购,中标利率上涨15bp至2.50%.周四进行的720亿元91天期正回购操作,中标利率上涨17bp至2.80%.

　　**回笼仍是主要目的**

　　本周28天和91天期正回购利率,以及三个月期央票发行收益率均走升,这大幅增加了公开市场吸引力,也让回笼功能明显恢复,结束了此前连续16周的资金净投放.

　　上海一银行交易员表示,今年公开市场到期主要集中在上半年,央行公开市场功能的恢复,可以适时的将上半年资金滚动操作到下半年到期,并对资金面情况进行平滑,远比上调存款准备金政策灵活,央行此次调整正回购利率以及三个月期央票发行收益率,主要还是出于回笼资金的目的,预计近期央行可能还会保持资金净回笼.

　　"央行现在是想通过公开市场回笼资金,总是调准备金率也不是办法,政策效果太剧烈."上述华南的券商分析师表示.

　　他认为,如果央行能够通过公开市场有效的回笼资金,对冲到期流动性,则近期上调存款准备金率的可能性会有所降低.

　　据统计,央行票据上半年到期量逾2万亿元,而下半年到期仅约6千多亿.

　　央行当前公开市场央票发行状态一般为周二发行一年期央票,周四发行三个月期央票;而去年4月重启发行的三年期央票,因一二级市场利差过大,以及期限过长引发的需求不足等原因,从去年12月9日起再次暂停发行.

　　央行公开市场此前已连续16周净投放,总额达11,550亿元.其中上周净投放1,030亿元.

　　本周央行资金投放及回笼各项明细(单位:亿元人民币)

　　回笼 投放

　　------------------------------------

　　央票发行(周二) 10

　　(周四) 320

　　正回购 (周二) 1,100

　　(周四) 720

　　央票到期 2,050

　　正回购到期 --

　　====================================

什么是央票利率倒挂

央票相当于中央银行发行的债券，中央银行发行央票，金融机构购买央票，获得利息收入，而金融机构在二级市场进行央票出售，有一个利率差。现在的情况是，二级市场央票的利率比一级市场高，也就是说金融机构从央行买入央票，立即在二级市场出售，就会亏损。 央票和存款准备金率一样是重要的公开市场操作手段，除了有回笼资金、维持市场上的货币供应量等功能外，还被视为提供市场基准利率的重要手段。一般来说，当央票发行利率持平或略高于二级市场收益率水平时，机构对央票的需求将保持相对稳定。 但今年(2010) 5、6月份以来，由于受银行资金面紧张影响，央票二级市场收益率不断上行，央票一、二级市场利率持续出现倒挂。截至11月26日，3月、1年和3年央票发行利率分别低于二级市场111个基点、68个基点和75个基点。利率倒挂，直接导致一级市场认购热情持续下降，从而引起各期限央票发行量的不断萎缩.

http://lsqzqgzs.blog.hexun.com/62088150_d.html

Rewriting Pension History

Rewriting Pension History

Some Big Firms Move to Recognize Gains and Losses in the Years They Occur

By MICHAEL RAPOPORT
Some big companies are changing how they account for their pension plans in a way that could make their earnings look better in coming years.

AT&T Inc., Verizon Communications Inc. and Honeywell International Inc. recently ended a longstanding practice in which they "smooth" large gains and losses generated by pension assets into their financial results over a period of years. From now on, these companies will count all such gains and losses in the same year they are incurred.

.While the moves might seem like arcane accounting steps, they have important implications for investors. The companies say the changes will make their earnings reporting more transparent, but they also sweep away tens of billions in past pension losses the companies have yet to smooth into—and hurt—their results. By charging them against their earnings from 2008, when the losses were incurred, they are taking lumps for years that many investors may no longer care about.

"They'll put the bad news behind them" said David Zion, an accounting analyst with Credit Suisse.

Still, the accounting change will make it clearer to investors how pension plans' performance affects the companies' income statements, where it is factored into operating earnings. And the current rock-bottom interest rates make it a good time to make such a change. Any increases in rates could improve pension-plan performance, and clearing away the old losses will heighten the impact that better performance has on the companies' earnings.

Under current accounting rules, companies with defined-benefit pension plans, which promise to pay specified amounts to retirees, have the option to take several years to spread the cost of large pension gains and losses into earnings. That means that when a plan's investment results are much better or worse than expected—as with the 2008 market downturn—it can have a significant effect on earnings for years.

For that and other reasons, the system of accounting for pension results in earnings long has been widely criticized. The Financial Accounting Standards Board, the U.S. accounting rule maker, has examined the issue before but hasn't made any changes, though they may revisit it soon. AT&T, Verizon and Honeywell changed their accounting methods on their own initiative. While the details differ, all three said they would start recognizing some or all of their deferred losses in the year they occur, through a "mark-to-market" adjustment to fourth-quarter earnings to reflect their pension plan's returns for the year.

All three assessed the bulk of the change's impact against 2008 earnings, the height of the market meltdown. AT&T, for example, said its 2008 pension costs would increase by $24.9 billion because of the change, compared to a $3 billion increase for 2010. The company reduced its 2008 earnings by $15.5 billion as a result, from a profit of $12.9 billion to a loss of $2.6 billion.

An increase in interest rates could benefit the companies' pension plans if, as expected, they move higher. That is because pension obligations that may be paid out decades into the future are discounted back to their present value. When rates are low, there's less discounting, and the obligations stay relatively high. But when rates rise, the future obligations will be discounted more aggressively, moving their present value lower.

That means a lower base on which the company has to pay interest costs, which could translate into lower pension costs, improved pension performance and better earnings.

"Clearly the mark-to-market approach is preferable accounting," said Kathleen Winters, Honeywell's controller. But she acknowledged that "the low interest-rate environment made this a good time to do this."

Such factors were "not the driving force behind the change," said an AT&T spokeswoman. "It's about more transparency, a simpler accounting method." A Verizon spokesman declined to comment.

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Associated Press

AT&T is one of the companies redoing the way it accounts for pensions.
.General Electric Co. and International Business Machines Corp. plan a related though less-sweeping step. They will start providing data on their operating earnings with some pension-related elements removed. "We just wanted to take it out," said an IBM spokesman. A GE spokeswoman declined to comment.

For AT&T, Verizon and Honeywell, the change has a potential downside: Without smoothing of pension results, their earnings may show more year-to-year volatility. A market surge could propel that year's earnings drastically higher, but a plunge could hollow out earnings, leaving investors who don't dig beneath the reported numbers vulnerable to surprises. Though logical for the companies, the change "has a lot of risk" for investors, said Alan Glickstein, a senior consultant at Towers Watson, a human-resources consulting firm.

Still, others may follow in the footsteps of the three companies. According to The Analyst's Accounting Observer, 74 companies in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index had both underfunded pension plans and unrecognized losses equal to at least half their pension assets at the end of 2009.

A potential candidate is DuPont Co., which has $9 billion in unrecognized losses. The company's 2010 pretax earnings of $3.7 billion were weighed down by $507 million of past losses that were amortized into its results. Eliminating smoothing would get rid of that weight. Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. has $3.2 billion in unrecognized losses. Spokesmen for DuPont and Goodyear declined to comment.

Write to Michael Rapoport at Michael.Rapoport@dowjones.com