资本充足率是资本对风险加权资产的比率来衡量，巴塞尔协定规定的是8%。
存款准备金率是银行吸收存款后要上缴到中央银行的比例。
1.资本充足率一般不变，存款准备金率随时都在调整的。
2.资本充足率是银行能否营业的先决条件，也是衡量经营状况的指标。存款准备金率是政府的一般货币政策，用来调节市场的货币供给。
Monday, December 27, 2010
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
尚福林谈资本市场
尚福林谈资本市场
本文见《财经》杂志 2010年第26期 出版日期2010年12月20日 共有2条点评
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Linkedin Facebook Mixx Yahoo Buzz Twitter 豆瓣网 字号： 股权分置改革是一场历史性变革，规范整顿资本市场，改革新股发行制度，积极推进多层次市场建设和金融创新，中国资本市场改革发展取得了巨大成就，下一步必须有意识地在推进制度改革中着重培育市场机制
《财经》记者 乔晓会 《证券市场周刊》记者 李德林
1990年12月19日，上海证券交易所成立。通常，业内将这一天定为中国资本市场正式建立之日。
至今，中国资本市场成立已整20年。
正是当初一批有理想的留学归国青年、金融家及政府官员，在上世纪80年代末90年代初走到一起，以满腔的热情，为中国资本市场的建立奔走东西。
在姓“资”与姓“社”的争论氛围下，中国资本市场小心翼翼地开始了。
上交所、深交所先后正式建立，以1992年中国证监会成立为标志，资本市场成为中国金融系统中的独立一极。
监管体系不畅、法治很不健全、理念无从谈起，中国资本市场趟过了混乱的时期。以深圳“8·10”事件、“327”国债等惊心动魄的事件为典型，早期证券市场的参与者，经历了“血”与“火”的考验。
进入新世纪，中国资本市场逐渐走向法治化，股权分置改革也扫清了资本市场发展的最大障碍。机构投资者大量增加，市场规模不断壮大，多层次市场、新的交易机制不断建立。
到2010年11月底，A股市场上市公司2026家，总市值超过26万亿元， 跃居全球第二。
资本市场的建立，为中国经济、金融市场化发展提供了规范的硬约束环境，带动了国有企业改革、国有银行改革，同时对税收、会计、法律等方面的规范发展均起到了巨大的促进作用。
20年发展成绩斐然，但毕竟时间短暂，当前仍有诸多不足之处：各市场参与主体理念不成熟、法制体系不完善、市场机制不健全，等等。
在资本市场建立20周年之际，中国证监会主席尚福林接受了《财经》杂志、《证券市场周刊》的联合专访，就资本市场的热点问题进行了深入解剖。同时邀请两位参与资本市场建立并始终参与、关注资本市场发展的资深人士——中国投资有限责任公司总经理兼首席投资官高西庆及中国证券市场研究设计中心（联办）总干事王波明，畅谈资本市场的往事、发展、不足及未来。——编者
进入12月份，庆祝中国资本市场成立20周年的气氛渐浓。有关资本市场的大小论坛，必提及资本市场成立20周年。
作为中国资本市场的主管机构，中国证监会也在积极围绕这一主题组织各种活动。而中国证监会主席尚福林，自然成了近一段时期最忙的人，参加各种论坛，出席各种庆祝活动。
这位在2002年底临危受命、出任中国证监会主席的金融官员，已经在其任上工作整八年，成为中国证监会历任主席任期最长的一位。
尚福林上任后异常低调，面对市场下跌，一言不发。实际上，尚福林正在就资本市场的一系列问题低头调研。股权分置，成为资本市场进一步发展的最大障碍，也是最难逾越的大山，市场因此形容尚福林“坐在了火山口上”。
直到2004年1月，国务院发布《关于推进资本市场改革开放和稳定发展的若干意见》，“国九条”出台，发展资本市场首次提升到国家战略任务的高度。
2005年5月，股权分置改革启动，随后尚福林公开强调，“开弓没有回头箭”，以此向市场表示其决心。券商三年综合治理、股权分置改革等一系列硬仗，为尚福林给外界留下了“铁腕”的印象。
这位一直在中国金融系统工作的官员，虽然屡屡在不同层级出任要职，但极少接受媒体的采访。
2010年12月15日下午，尚福林在其办公室所在的北京金融街富凯大厦20层的会议室，接受了《财经》杂志与《证券市场周刊》的联合采访。
采访期间，尚福林始终面带微笑，即使遇到尖锐的问题，也平和回答，还时常以身边的例子解释资本市场的种种现象。给人的印象与“铁腕”丝毫无关。
常与尚福林接触的人形容，其性格“外柔内刚”，似很贴切。同时，也有人说其很“讲政治”。
在将近两个小时的采访里，尚福林回忆了股权分置改革过程中的诸多困难，畅谈了资本市场发展的关键问题、违法违规现象的治理及市场化改革的思路。
尚福林表示，股权分置改革对他而言，并不是无准备之仗，“开弓没有回头箭”不是胡说的，而是做了很多调研。“我不敢拿这个市场去冒风险。”尚福林说。
突围股权分置改革
股权分置改革经受住了市场和时间的考验，为实现资本市场的机制转换、功能发挥和市场的可持续发展奠定了制度基础
记者：2002年底，你调入证监会。当时正逢全球网络泡沫破裂、国际资本市场陷入低迷状态、中国股指也面临从历史性高位持续下跌的局面，舆论普遍认为你是坐到了中国股市的“火山口”，你对面临的困难有足够的准备吗？又是如何应对的？
尚福林：2002年，全球的股市陷入了网络泡沫破裂的低潮期，股市不断下挫，市场信心受到打击，中国股市也受到一定影响。从我国市场自身实际看，由于如何解决股权分置以及由此带来的一些问题一直没有明确，市场前景不明朗。部分市场参与者和理论界人士在当时对我国发展资本市场的前景产生了一些模糊认识，加上大股东侵占上市公司资金、券商挪用保证金、市场结构单一，一些问题日益突出，影响了投资者的积极性，股市低迷。
2002年，党的“十六大”明确提出“推进资本市场的改革开放和稳定发展”。按照中央的部署和要求，我们经过深入调研，认真分析市场形势，不断加深对资本市场发展规律和我国资本市场发展特点的认识，形成了尽快恢复市场信心，调整市场发展政策，加强市场基础性制度建设的工作思路，得到了国务院的高度重视和大力支持。
2004年国务院发布《关于推进资本市场改革开放和稳定发展的若干意见》（下称“国九条”），这几年来，贯彻落实党的“十六大”“十七大”及“国九条”精神，经过市场各方和社会各界的广泛参与和大力支持，资本市场基础性制度建设不断加强，股权分置改革、上市公司清欠解保、证券公司综合治理等重大改革基本完成。
与此同时，我们深化了股票发行体制改革，推出了创业板、股指期货和融资融券业务，加强了对内幕交易等违法违规行为的惩治打击力度。通过一系列的综合改革，我国资本市场承载力、影响力、开放度、透明度大幅提升，有效提升了市场运行的整体质量和效率，实现了重大的发展突破和转折性变化。
记者：可以说，没有股权分置，就没有中国股市。但是股权分置的确给中国资本市场运行造成很大的问题，而且解决难度大、风险大，为什么要在2005年进行股权分置改革?
尚福林：从我国证券市场设立之初的相关规定来看，对国有股等发起人股份流通问题没有明确的制度性安排，总体上采取的是搁置的办法。股权分置问题是由诸多历史原因形成的，主要是在改革开放早期，为避免姓资姓社的争论，同时又要推动股份制和资本市场试点发展而做出的一项特定安排。
现在回头去看，这是在市场初期特定的政治、经济、观念和法律环境下推出的一种创新，在当时条件下，这种制度安排确实也促进了资本市场的建立和发展。
随着社会主义市场经济体制的完善和资本市场发展环境的变化，特别是在市场规模发展到越来越大的时候，这个问题就越来越突出了。
一是因为一部分股票不能流通，它什么时候流通，以什么方式流通，投资者心里不踏实，就造成了投资者对市场预期的不稳定。二是因为一部分流通，一部分不流通，在这种情况下，扭曲了市场的定价机制，市场的价格发现功能受到了制约。三是市场兼并重组资源配置功能受到很大影响。好企业通过市场并购重组做大做强，这在成熟市场是普遍的一种做法。我们也希望我们的企业可以通过这种方式加快发展，但是国有股、法人股没有市场价，没有办法通过市场去做兼并重组。此外，股权分置还使公司治理缺乏共同利益基础，不利于上市公司规范运作，股权分置已经成为严重制约市场稳定运行和改革发展的重大制度障碍。
当时，一方面市场把国有股、法人股流通问题看做是悬在股市头上的“达摩克利斯之剑”，股权分置问题不解决，市场预期难以稳定，投资者信心难以恢复；另一方面股权分置问题在基本制度层面制约了我国资本市场的进一步改革和发展，这一问题无法靠市场自身消弭，股权分置问题拖得时间越长，积累的非流通股越多，解决的难度也就越大。经过认真的调查研究和多方面深入探讨，认识到必须尽早解决这一问题。
作为对市场价格形成机制和运行机制具有重要影响的制度性变革，为了解决国有股、法人股的流通问题，有关方面和专家学者、媒体进行了多方面的研究和探索，客观上形成了解决股权分置问题的市场预期。
特别是在2004年初“国九条”推出以后，大家对股权分置问题的认识也逐步统一了，解决问题的方式也由原来的国有股减持，变成了寻求全流通的方式，让国有股和法人股逐步拥有流通权。经过广泛深入的研究，对于股权分置改革的必要性、紧迫性以及基本操作思路的认识逐步深化，相关制度和技术条件逐步完善，启动股权分置改革已具备了必要的基础性条件。
记者：股权分置改革是中国股市一场历史性的变革，不仅需要勇气，更需要大智慧。你当时提出的“开弓没有回头箭”至今记忆犹新。但2005年股改试点开始时，股指甚至一度跌破1000点，能否介绍一下股改试点的决策以及试点过程中最艰难的地方？你们又是如何克服这些困难的？
尚福林：股权分置改革刚刚推出时，市场对当时能否平稳推进股权分置改革还没有足够信心，对推进改革的时机选择也有争论。国务院最终果断做出了积极稳妥推进股权分置改革的重大决策。实践证明，这一决策是十分正确的，也是十分及时的。
从我来讲，上任后经过多方调查，觉得如果不解决这个问题，中国市场很难往前发展。这件事儿搁不住、拖不得，越拖问题越多。解决股权分置问题，本质上是平衡非流通股股东和流通股股东之间的利益，消除A股市场股份流通的制度性差异。这项改革在国内外都没有先例可循，而且上市公司情况复杂、千差万别，当时推进股权分置改革面临两个突出问题：
第一，是不是国有资产流失等问题，我们通过反复研究之后认为，全流通本身使国有股可以得到市场的公允价格，是有利于保护国有资产的。
举例说，过去，国有企业要同外资搞合资，是用净资产计算公司的价值，现在要搞合资，是用市场价格，也就是用市值去计算价格，这是对国有资产的重要保护。
第二，股权分置改革在法律上有什么依据？通过认真研究，认为通过合同法的有关法理可以解决这个问题。用到股权分置改革上，因为在公司上市时国有股、法人股做了约定，暂不流通，国有股、法人股要流通，就要征得对方也就是流通股股东的同意，这是符合合同法法理的。最后形成了大股东提出方案，为保护中小股东的合法权益，要经过两次投票，有三分之二以上的中小股东同意，方案才能通过。为了方便中小投资者投票，在技术上做了些安排，建立了网络投票平台，通过交易系统大家可以参与投票。这样通过舆论引导、法律保障、技术支持，促进了股权分置改革。
当然，作为一项全新的改革，股权分置改革过程中也存在一些不确定性，市场上对于国有股送股的看法也不一致。在推进股权分置改革过程中，也确实面对许多实际困难，承受了很大压力。经过反复研究商讨，最终确立了“统一组织、分散决策”的操作原则和“试点先行、协调推进、分步解决”的操作步骤。
“统一组织”保障了股改的大方向、大原则的一致性，而“分散决策”充分尊重上市公司股东的合法权益，鼓励两类股东通过充分协商解决大股东的流通权问题，同时可以防止“整体试错”，即使个别公司的股改方案不能通过，也不会影响股权分置改革的全局推进。
第一批有四家企业参与股改，一家没通过，没通过我觉得是好事，说明市场各方主体很重视，流通股股东在积极参与股权分置改革；第二批开始很多人怀疑，认为1000多家上市公司什么时候才能做完？在各方面的支持下，第二批推出了40多家，加上大型国企的加入，市场基本上形成了推进改革的预期。
在党中央、国务院的统一部署下，我们会同国资委、财政部、人民银行等部门，用工作机制创新、政策创新和方案创新的办法解决改革中的各类复杂问题，形成了股权分置改革领导小组的政策配合机制、地方人民政府的组织领导机制、交易所的方案指导机制、两类股东间的沟通协商机制，通过不断克服困难，改革初期存在的疑虑和争议逐步消除，各种类型的上市公司的股改难题妥善破解，改革环境逐步改善，股权分置改革的积极作用在改革推进中逐步显现，也逐步得到了社会舆论的广泛认同和支持，最终稳妥地解决了股权分置问题。
股权分置改革是在我国资本市场“新兴加转轨”的市场条件下，探索出了一条行之有效、适合中国资本市场发展道路的改革路径，经受住了市场考验和时间的考验，为实现资本市场的机制转换、功能发挥和市场的可持续发展奠定了制度基础。截至2010年11月底，A股市场流通市值为19.01万亿元，流通市值占总市值的比例由2005年底的32.8％上升到72％。
资本市场整顿规范
经过几年脱胎换骨式的转化，我国证券期货行业历史遗留的风险隐患基本排除，全行业已经步入良性健康发展轨道
记者：2003年开始，不少券商出现了大量的违规国债回购以及挪用客户保证金现象。2003年8月，证监会提出了券商监管“三大铁律”，开始对券商进行有步骤的整顿规范，又对证券公司进行了为期三年综合治理，在券商整顿过程中都采取了哪些措施？
尚福林：我国证券公司最初是从银行或者信托公司的证券营业部发展而来，业内有人讲，这是先有“儿子”后有“父亲”，因此在管理上没有一套投资银行的管理办法，有些是按商业银行理念在经营证券公司，理念模糊，甚至有一些观点认为银行可以拿存款放贷，证券公司也可以用客户保证金进行经营。2002年到2004年，随着市场结构性调整，一批证券公司多年积累的风险呈现集中爆发态势。
2003年8月，我们召开证券公司规范发展座谈会，明确了严禁挪用客户交易结算资金、严禁挪用客户委托管理的资产和严禁挪用客户托管的债券等“三大监管铁律”。2004年8月，在国务院的领导下，我们下决心三管齐下，实施风险处置、日常监管和推进行业发展的综合治理，采取全面摸清底数、督促公司整改、平稳处置风险、改革基础性制度、严格责任追究等系列措施。
经过三年的艰苦努力，到2007年8月，圆满完成了综合治理预定目标：平稳处置了南方、闽发、“德隆系”等31家高风险证券公司，彻底纠正了证券公司挪保、委托理财等违法违规行为，化解了长期积累的系统性风险，初步建立了证券公司市场退出和投资者保护的长效机制。
在券商整顿和综合治理过程中，全面梳理、完善了证券公司的基本管理制度。改革完善了第三方独立存管、国债回购等基础制度，实现了风险的制度性隔离，全面实施了以净资本为核心的风险动态监控制度，依法严厉查处违法违规的机构和责任人，严肃市场法纪，强化了对股东和高管人员行为的约束。综合治理之后，我们及时总结经验，进一步加强行业风险合规监管，指导各证券公司设立了合规部门，聘任了合规总监，强化了对重点环节及新产品、新业务的合规管理，实现外部监管与内部约束的有机互动。
记者：疗伤总是一件痛苦的事情。整顿券商，证券市场大量违规风险现象彻底暴露，当时很多人认为你对券商的整顿对于股市来说，是“刮骨疗毒”。一边是整顿压力，一边是市场低迷的压力。面对这样的考验，你是如何考量的，又有哪些收获？
尚福林：综合治理中压力是多方面的，整顿过程牵涉到多家证券公司破产、重组等问题，尤其是一些大证券公司，无论是资产规模、债务总额、违规程度都非常复杂，处理这一类证券公司会暴露出资本市场很多的历史遗留问题。但问题根源不解决，迟早会吞噬其他健康的肌体，要想从根本上恢复市场活力，提振市场信心，就必须对存在的问题进行彻底解决。
综合治理，是在党中央、国务院的领导下，在各地方政府、有关部门和司法机关等方面的大力支持下，我们集系统监管合力实施的一次坚决果断、周密配套的监管行动和影响深远的制度改革，也是全行业以浴火重生的勇气和信念进行的一次全面深入的自我整顿和自我规范。
在整顿规范的同时，我们把促进行业创新发展放在更加突出的位置，支持证券期货经营机构在与法律法规、监管政策不冲突的前提下，根据市场需要、客户需求和自身能力开展创新，促进其做优做强，提高行业竞争力。
经过几年脱胎换骨式的转化，我国证券期货行业历史遗留的风险隐患基本排除，全行业已经步入良性健康发展轨道。现在想来，挪用客户保证金是诱发系统风险的重要因素。如果在金融危机前没有处理这些公司，难以想象我们的资本市场在本次国际金融危机冲击下会变为什么样子。现在情况是，面对国际金融危机的严峻冲击，我国证券期货行业没有发生大的风险，仍然保持了稳健经营、规范发展的态势。
记者：在整顿券商的同时，证监会一直在积极推进规范上市公司运作。证监会如何解决大股东占款、公司治理“形备而神不至”、诚信水平不高等问题，如何化解工作中的难题？
尚福林：上市公司是资本市场的基石。我国资本市场中的上市公司具有国有股占多数的特殊股权结构，许多民营背景的上市公司又多脱胎于传统家族企业。受体制性、机制性因素和惯性思维制约，大股东挪用上市公司资金、治理不规范、违规信息披露等行为时有发生，成为困扰资本市场健康发展的一个突出问题。
按照《国务院批转证监会关于提高上市公司质量意见的通知》（国发[2005]34号）的要求，近几年，我们围绕提高上市公司质量，重点强化了以下几方面的工作：
第一，强化上市公司独立的法人财产权，推动上市公司规范运作。上市公司资产是属于公司全体股东的“共有财产”，使用和处置必须符合法律法规及公司章程规定。在境外成熟市场，大股东侵占上市公司资金属于侵犯上市公司独立法人财产权，通常会判重罪。
讲个故事：一个国有控股股东挪用了上市公司的钱，上市公司的人跟他讲挪用公款不对。他对人家说，上市公司股东有多少人？充其量就是几万人？我是国有公司，我背后是13亿人民，我不是挪公款，我挪的是私款给公家用。在我国，如果不从根本上承认、尊重并严格保护上市公司享有独立法人财产权，中国资本市场是搞不好的。
近几年在这方面我们做了大量的工作，全国人大新修订的《刑法》把挪用上市公司资金列为犯罪行为，并建立了一套法律规则。这些法律法规的建立是针对所有上市公司的，并不因为是国企就可以例外。
在工作实践中，针对我国上市公司大股东违规侵占上市公司资金的情况，我们会同公安部、人民银行、国资委、税务总局、工商总局、银监会等七部委开展清欠攻坚战。在各级政府的共同努力下，两年之内涉及资金占用问题的上市公司家数和占用金额同比下降九成。清欠期间，我们会联合有关部门规范上市公司对外担保行为，化解违规担保和连环担保风险，促进上市公司质量进一步提升。
第二，强化上市公司治理，健全和完善内部制衡机制。有效的公司治理机制是支撑上市公司健康发展的重要保障，是提高上市公司质量系统工程中的中心环节。自2007年初至2009年底，证监会开展了为期三年的“上市公司治理专项活动”。共发现违反公司治理相关规则的问题10795个，截至2009年底，已督促完成整改8395个治理问题，整改率达到98％以上。通过专项治理，上市公司确立治理原则和公司治理框架，全面整改了治理方面存在的问题，进一步提高了规范运作意识，完善了内部控制制度和有关基础性制度，整体规范治理水平明显提高。
第三，强化诚实守信，规范上市公司信息披露行为。上市公司信息披露不仅直接影响到资本市场的透明度，也是维护市场“三公”原则的基础。近年来，我们以信息披露监管为抓手，建立了较为完善的信息披露规范体系，形成了以《证券法》为主，全方位、多层次的上市公司信息披露制度；构建了以证监会行政监管为核心，派出机构和交易者各司其职、合理分工、协调管理的信息披露监管体系。
近年来，我们坚决查处和曝光了一批社会影响力大的典型案件，沪深交易所也对相关上市公司信息披露违规进行了处理和公开谴责。今后我们将进一步加大监管力度，督促上市公司真实、准确、完整、及时地披露信息，切实履行好信息披露义务。
随着我国经济的持续快速发展和提高上市公司质量工作的深入开展，上市公司正在成为推动国民经济发展的生力军。截至2010年11月底，沪深两市共有上市公司2026家，比2005年增加680家，总市值26.43万亿元，占同期GDP的比例由2005年的20％上升到2009年的72％。利润总额占全国规模以上企业利润总额的一半以上，缴纳的所得税占全国企业四分之一以上。
探索新股发行改革
发行制度改革的整体考虑，就是让发行制度更加市场化，让市场主体归位尽责
记者：在这几年的改革中，新股发行一直是市场关注的焦点。证监会推行了保荐制，重组了发审委，裁减了三分之二的发审委员，并且一改委员秘密制度，审核工作完全透明公开化。推进发审委改革基于哪些方面的考虑，此后重组审核委员会的成立跟发审委的改组有着怎样的内在联系？
尚福林：我们国家的发行制度，一直都处在探索完善的过程中。一开始是额度制，它是市场建立初期，由于市场机制不完善不得不采取的一种方式，在那种条件下大概是最可取的一种方式，也是一种有益的探索。发审委的建立是希望吸收专业人士对上市公司进行专业的判断。运行一段时间以后，发现在对发审委员的问责制度和监督机制尚不完善的情况下，容易产生权力和责任不对等的情况。
发行制度改革的整体考虑，就是让发行制度更加市场化，让市场主体归位尽责。为把好“入口关”，我们在发行改革中最先动的是保荐人制度。保荐人制度的推出就是让保荐人在公司上市的时候承担责任。使公司在上市前就完成改制，将其按照股份制公司、按照公众公司的标准去改造。而不是对这些企业进行包装，包装之后让这些企业来过审核关。
我曾经把这个比喻为，过去发行是过一个关口，现在是过一个管道。它要想过这个管道，就必须按照公众公司的标准去改造才能过得去。
深化发审委的改革，就是让它更加阳光化、更加专业化。
第一，阳光是最好的消毒剂，我们将全部发审委委员名单、每次审核的企业和委员名单都公开，让社会来监督。
第二，聘请专业人士担任发审委员，这些人员大部分是会计师、律师。他们的职业生涯是和社会的认可度联系在一起的，是受社会监督的。
第三，发审制度上保证能够集体决策，而不是哪一个人说了就能办得通的。这样发审委名单比过去缩小了，从会计师事务所和律师事务所引进一些专业人士，形成了由专职人员组成的专门机构。
第四，从工作程序上，我们也做了一些安排。比如委员的所有工作都要有工作底稿，发审会议全程录像，以后可能还要追责，有非常严格的要求，保证能够最大限度地正常发挥他应该发挥的职能，保护投资者的合法权益。
这几年还改革了重组委，使重组委更具有独立性，证监会希望在重组方面多听取专家意见，按照新股发审标准和规则，将一切审核透明化，将问责机制跟监督机制透明化，问责与监督得到更有力的执行。
记者：这两年针对发行制度改革，证监会分两个阶段特推出了改革措施，在发行方面是否还会进行更为深入的改革？市场一直在呼吁发行备案制度，证监会是否在这方面已经有新的计划？
尚福林：发行体制是资本市场直接融资制度的重要组成部分之一。发行监管工作的目标应该是，既能对投资者合法权益提供保护，又能支持企业利用资本市场实现快速发展；既能把住准入关，又能兼顾市场效率，掌控好进入资本市场的第一道闸门。
保荐制度、发审委制度、询价制度，构成现阶段发行监管的基础制度。拟上市公司通过保荐人推荐和发审委审核后，到市场上定价。同样，在定价机制上我们也希望更加市场化。2008年以来，我们深入调查研究，广泛听取市场意见，按照分步实施、逐步完善的思路，于2009年6月启动新一轮新股发行体制改革，重点是完善询价和申购机制，优化网上发行制度安排，重视中小投资者的参与意愿，加强风险揭示，同时取消了对新股定价的窗口指导。
2010年10月，我们在充分听取各界意见的基础上，推出了第二阶段改革措施，重点是提高单个机构的认购份额，促使询价机构审慎报价，适当扩大参与询价的机构范围，增强定价信息透明度，完善回拨机制和中止发行机制等，进一步强化了市场约束，完善了市场化运行机制。
新股发行体制改革推进一年多来，积极效应逐步显现，股票发行中的市场约束力不断显现，市场对新股发行的承受能力逐步增强，股票发行改革的市场化方向得到了市场各方普遍认同。
同时也要看到，进行改革和培育机制是一个过程，不可能一蹴而就。成熟的市场，经常会有股票发不出去的时候，而中国的市场，什么股票都能卖出去，股价高也有人买，这说明市场的风险意识、市场的约束机制还不完善。我们将在改革实施过程中，进一步总结经验，今后在改革过程中要朝着两个方向努力，一方面是更加市场化，另一方面是进一步促使市场各方归位尽责，形成市场约束机制，为从核准制向注册制过渡培育可靠的市场基础。
坚持市场化改革取向
我们整个市场的创新步伐、中介机构培育和投资者结构等，与成熟市场还有很大的一段距离
记者：近几年来，证监会一直积极推动资本市场市场化改革，你对中国资本市场市场化的进度是否满意？能否介绍一下进一步推进市场化改革的思路？
尚福林：在“新兴加转轨”条件下发展资本市场，必须坚持市场化改革取向，不断完善有利于市场稳定运行和长期发展的体制机制。回顾历史可以发现，资本市场20年发展历程也是市场化改革稳步推进、市场运行机制不断完善的过程。
特别是近几年来，伴随着股权分置改革的顺利完成，进一步深化发行体制改革，切实提高了发行审核透明和新股定价市场化水平。大幅取消行政审批项目，将工作重点从事前准入逐步转向事中监管和事后问责，2002年以来，我们加大行政许可改革的力度，分五批取消和调整了行政许可审批项目114项，超过原有行政许可审批项目的三分之二，范围涉及融资、并购等一些主要业务领域。
同时，大力推进市场化并购重组，促进上市公司产业升级和行业整合。充分调动市场各参与主体积极性，营造有利于创新发展的市场环境，深入开展投资者教育，积极培育健康股权文化。
总体看，经过近几年发展，在强化风险可控的前提下，以市场为导向、以需求为动力的产品和业务创新机制初步形成，市场机制和中介机构在市场筛选、定价、调节供求等方面的作用更加突出，市场内在稳定机制和相互制衡机制日益健全。
我们也清醒地认识到，我国资本市场建立至今不足20年，西方有些国家资本市场已经有200多年的历史，应该说，我们整个市场的创新步伐、中介机构培育和投资者结构等，与成熟市场还有很大的一段距离。
我们将主动适应新情况、新形势和新变化，把继续提高市场化水平作为市场基础性制度建设的重要内容，坚持培育和完善市场运行机制，健全资本约束和市场约束，不断完善市场股权文化、法律制度、信用体系等，充分发挥市场自我调节和内在稳定功能，不断健全完善市场体制机制，巩固市场在配置资源中的基础性作用。
记者：创业板推出时，考虑到市场规模，发行上市速度比较快，因此也不可避免出现个别企业质量相对不高的情况，证监会将如何加强创业板公司监管，是否也会采取西方的升降级制度，对发展壮大的公司跃升主板，对业绩差的公司实行直接退市政策？
尚福林：创业板企业大部分处于成长期，创新能力强、成长性高，同时也具有业绩不稳定的特点，对新技术、新模式的探索还存在不确定性，创业板市场面临非理性交易、投机炒作和市场操纵的风险也较高。因此，必须不断深化对创业板市场规律的认识，不断加强和完善创业板监管。
创业板自2009年10月推出以来，证监会始终坚持“从严监管”原则。针对创业板市场特点，逐步完善市场配套法律体系和监管规则，切实把好市场准入关口，强化信息披露监管，深入进行风险揭示，大力创新和改进监管手段，严厉打击违法违规行为，不断提高创业板市场监管的有效性。同时，深圳交易所也全面强化自律监管，在严格市场监控、募集资金管理等方面做了大量工作。一年多来，我国创业板市场总体运行平稳，功能初步显现，正在朝着预期的方向发展。
我们也注意到，较之主板市场，我国中小板和创业板市场市盈率相对较高，这既体现出市场对成长性、创新型企业发展有着积极的预期，也反映出市场内在约束机制还不完善，风险意识有待强化。
我们将不断总结经验，坚持改革创新，推动发行人、投资者、承销商等市场主体归位尽责和相互制衡，引导市场力量和中介机构在市场定价、调节供求等方面发挥更大的作用，督促中介落实好投资者适当性管理制度，加大风险警示，更好地引导投资者增强风险意识。监管部门和交易所将完善创业板持续监管机制，逐步健全符合创业板实际的监管体系。
此外，在推进多层次市场体系建设过程中，证监会将统筹建立转板和退市机制问题，积极研究相关制度安排，稳步推进主板、中小板退市制度改革，探索建立创业板上市公司退市制度，进一步提高上市公司质量和市场效率，优化市场资源配置功能。
记者：现在中国资本市场除了主板、创业板、中小板外，还积极推进场外市场、国际板等建设，在完善多层次资本市场设计的同时，如何实现多元化的市场监管体系构建？
尚福林：监管体系的建设和监管能力的提高是一个长期的任务，是一个需要根据市场发展变化不断调整和优化的过程。
近年来，我们努力探索和实践完善监管体系的新路径。从内部看，建立了一系列的系统内部多方参与的综合监管体系，如上市公司辖区监管责任制和综合监管体系、期货市场“五位一体”（证监会、证监局、交易所、监控中心、协会）监管体系、以净资本为核心的证券公司动态监管体系等。
从外部看，积极争取相关部委的支持，推动建立起打击非法证券活动协调机制、上市公司规范运作专题工作小组、反洗钱信息定期通报机制等监管协调机制和综合防控内幕交易的机制。这些监管体系的建立和运行，对于提高监管效果、改进市场秩序，发挥了积极的作用。
伴随着发展环境的变化和创新步伐的加快，跨市场产品相继出现，市场的层次边界不断扩大。一方面，要继续完善监管机构、自律组织、交易所共同组成的多层次监管体系，合理划分行政监管与自律监管职责边界，建立完善针对市场风险和违法违规行为的快速决策和反应机制。
另一方面，继续加强监管机构间的协调与合作，将综合监管协调机制常态化、规范化、制度化，逐步探索和强化对跨市场产品的功能监管，减少“监管套利”和“监管真空”。此外，还要适应市场对外开放的需要，加强国际监管合作，在“引进来”和“走出去”过程中，加强对资本跨境流动的监管，切实维护市场秩序和金融安全。
创新发展与监管强化
要积极探索既能调动市场积极性，增强发展活力，又能防止创新失控，有效避免系统性风险的新机制，促进市场稳定健康发展
记者：中国证券市场近年来已经引入了如融资融券、股指期货等风险管理工具。国际金融危机后，证监会如何考量和推动资本市场的创新发展？
尚福林：创新是金融市场发展的动力源泉。从欧美等金融市场看，金融创新过度与监管不力是这次金融危机的直接诱因。
危机之后，欧美发达国家也都在借危机反思，主动进行金融改革和制度修正，试图在保护市场发展、增强市场活力与强化市场监管、降低系统风险之间寻求平衡。而就新兴市场整体而言，面对的主要问题仍是创新能力相对不足、缺乏核心竞争力和持续发展能力。
这几年，我们大力加强市场化的创新机制建设，深化了股票发行体制改革，大力推动了市场化并购重组，启动了创业板，推出了可转债、可分离公司债、ETF等市场交易产品，2002年以来新上市期货品18个。今年以来，我们推出了股指期货和融资融券业务试点，改变了我国证券市场运行机制，丰富了资本市场的风险管理工具。
我们将继续坚持在风险可测、可控、可承受的前提下，稳步推动行业的产品、业务、组织和制度创新，不断探索以市场为导向的资本市场创新机制，稳步发展符合经济发展内在需要的产品和服务，增强创新活动对经济发展的支持力度。
当然，谈资本市场的改革创新，其中一个应有之义就是，要紧密结合实体经济发展需要与市场发展自身要求，处理好创新和监管的关系，守住不发生系统性金融风险的底线。
在金融行业的“三性”当中，风险性也是第一位的。深化我国资本市场的创新发展，要把服务于实体经济实际需求作为金融创新的基本前提，把提高市场透明度作为金融创新的重要基础，把加强诚信建设作为金融创新的内在要求，把加强市场监管作为金融创新的基本保障。
要积极探索新机制，使其既能调动市场积极性，增强发展活力，又能防止创新失控，有效避免系统性风险，从而促进市场稳定健康发展。
记者：证监会一直致力于打击内幕交易，最近国务院办公厅转发了五部委《关于依法打击和防控内幕交易的意见》，这份文件出台有什么背景。当前证券市场内幕交易存在什么样的新特点？在查处的过程中，主要存在哪些困难？
尚福林：股权分置改革完成后，伴随着全流通市场的形成，上市公司并购重组日趋活跃。我们做过一个统计，近几年我国企业兼并重组中，40％以上是通过资本市场实现的。在这种背景下，利用上市公司并购重组信息进行内幕交易的现象呈现多发态势，逐步成为市场监管中的突出矛盾。
内幕交易是各国市场监管中面临的共性难题。我国是“新兴加转轨”的市场，面临的难题更多。
一是法制意识淡薄。部分市场主体对内幕交易的违法和违纪后果重视不够，没有将内幕交易行为同违法犯罪联系起来。
二是决策链条长。据调查，目前国有上市公司并购重组涉及的环节平均为六个，涉及到内幕信息的人员往往在几十人以上。
三是利益驱动强。内幕交易形式隐蔽，且容易赚快钱、赚大钱，诱惑很大。在某些案件中，甚至成为隐性贿赂的方式。
四是股市文化不健康。一些投资者投机意识相对较重，经常主动打探内幕信息。
五是制度不健全。2005年修改的《证券法》虽然规定了内幕交易民事赔偿制度，但具体细则还没有出台，加之我国没有“举证责任倒置”，致使很多案件“调查难”“举证难”。
针对防范和打击内幕交易过程中的难题，今年以来，我们及时调整工作重点，会同公安部、监察部、国资委、预防腐败局等部门共同启动内幕交易综合防控专题调研，报请国务院办公厅11月16日转发了五部委《关于依法打击和防控内幕交易的意见》，对依法打击和防控内幕交易工作做出了统筹部署和安排，初步形成了综合防控和打击内幕交易的制度体系和监督机制。
在工作实践中，我们加大执法力度，统一部署、快速行动，组织全系统开展打击内幕交易专项工作。截至11月底，我们共立案调查内幕交易案件50件，因内幕交易对19名个人、三家机构做出行政处罚，将15起涉嫌内幕交易犯罪案件移送公安机关，查处和曝光了“中山公用”“上海祖龙”“天山纺织”等一批社会影响较大的大要案，打击内幕交易专项工作取得了良好的社会效果。
证监会将与有关部门一道，进一步深化内幕交易综合防治体系建设，积极推动制定《国家工作人员接触内幕信息管理办法》。出台《上市公司内幕信息知情人登记制度》，对于市场内幕交易违法违规行为，坚持露头就打，发现一起，查处一起，绝不手软。
记者：除了创业板，场外交易市场一直被看成是新股培育场所，下一步如何推进场外交易市场建设？国际板一直被视为与国际接轨的重要渠道，目前进展如何？
尚福林：近年来，随着中小板和创业板相继推出，我国资本市场基本形成了多层次市场体系框架。但总体来看，市场覆盖面还不足。当前的一项重要工作是场外市场建设。目前我们已经初步拟定了中关村代办转让系统扩大试点方案，明确了非上市股份公司股份公开转让的监管原则，基本形成了场外市场建设的总体思路。下一阶段，我们要以扩大覆盖面为重点，加快中关村代办股份转让试点扩大工作，抓紧推进全国性场外交易市场建设，进一步完善市场体系，更好地满足经济社会的投融资需求。
建设国际板是我们当前市场体系建设的另一项重点工作。建设国际板是我国资本市场改革开放的内在需要，同时从宏观经济层面来看，也是国家对外开放大局的需要。去年以来，我们就国际板的法律适用、市场定位、投资者保护、财务会计等问题进行了认真梳理和研究，同时与有关部委积极进行沟通协调，研究制定国际板制度设计和相关配套规则。
下一阶段，我们要进一步加强与有关部门沟通协商，做好研究论证、分析评估，稳步推进国际板建设的相关准备工作。推出国际板目前没有具体时间表。但我相信，随着国际板在未来的推出，我国资本市场的国际化进程迈出重要步伐，市场自身的体系结构也将更加完善，在服务国民经济大局方面的地位功能将跨上一个新的台阶。
记者：证监会在股指期货推出之后，除了加强监管，对交易规则有没有新的思考？新的金融衍生品推出方面，证监会如何去推动这方面新业务的发展？
尚福林：今年4月股指期货的正式推出，是我国资本市场发展历程中的一件大事，标志着我国资本市场改革发展又迈出了一大步，对于发育和完善我国资本市场体系具有重要意义。股指期货上市后我们始终坚持强化风险防范不动摇，部署系统有关单位实行严格的风险控制措施，落实跨市场监管协作制度安排，积极引导机构投资者有序参与。
在外部环境调整变化、市场波幅较大的情况下，股指期货市场经受住了考验，实现了顺利开局、平稳运行的预期目标。下一阶段我们将结合市场新情况及时完善相关规则制度，继续指导中金所深化与加强期货市场一线监管，逐步发挥股指期货市场功能。
股指期货的顺利推出与平稳运行，为我国金融期货市场发展开了一个好头。发展金融期货市场，发挥金融期货风险规避、价格发现、资产配置等作用，有助于提高金融体系的效率与弹性，增强抵御风险、维护金融安全的能力。我们将认真总结商品期货与股指期货发展的经验，进一步研究探索符合经济发展需要的金融衍生产品，按照循序渐进、风险可控原则，稳步推进金融衍生品创新，逐步发挥金融衍生品的功能，提高期货市场在更高层次服务经济的能力。
记者：中国资本市场体系中，债券市场早于股票市场，但是发展规模仍然很小，你认为如何推进债券市场的发展？
尚福林：目前，发达国家资本市场基本上是股票规模、国债和公司债依次从小到大的“金字塔型”结构，而我国则是股票市场大、债券市场小的“倒金字塔型”结构。目前，我国公司债券和其他固定收益类产品市场发展相对滞后，不能满足投资者不同的风险偏好和进行有效投资组合的需要，既不利于资本市场的均衡、协调发展，也不利于金融体系的安全和稳定。债券市场发展滞后，已成为制约资本市场功能发挥的一个瓶颈。
2007年全国金融工作会议提出，加快推进银行间债券市场和交易所市场相互联通，完善债券管理体制，加快形成集中监管、互联互通的债券市场。证监会一直高度重视推动债券市场发展。目前，经过与央行、银监会等相关主管部门的共同研究推动，上市商业银行参与交易所债券市场试点工作已经进入了操作阶段。
下一阶段，我们要积极落实上市商业银行参与交易所债券市场试点的各项具体安排。同时要努力把债券市场发展成为提高直接融资比重的重要渠道，进一步优化和改善公司债券市场准入、债券审核、信用评级以及投资者服务等方面的制度安排，提高审核效率，切实有效增加公司债融资规模，继续推进债券市场的互联互通，加快建立安全高效、监管到位、统一互联的债券市场。
着重培育市场机制
我国市场仍然是“新兴加转轨”的市场，与发达国家甚至是很多发展中国家相比，面临的问题是不一样的。从当前看，最重要的是培育市场机制
记者：20年很短，也很曲折，中国资本市场距离一个成熟市场还有很多路要走，你认为我们现在的市场与成熟市场相比，需要解决哪些方面的问题？
尚福林：20年来，中国资本市场从无到有，从小到大，迅速发展，在许多方面走过了成熟市场几十年甚至是上百年的道路。同时也要看到，我国市场仍然是“新兴加转轨”的市场，与发达国家甚至是很多发展中国家相比，面临的问题是不一样的，我把这些问题概况为“三个不足”“三个不同”：
“三个不足”：第一，“信用不足”。马克思指出，“信用制度是资本主义的私人企业逐渐转化为资本主义的股份公司的主要基础。”与成熟市场相比，我国信用体系不健全，商业信用不发达，缺乏健全的“委托-代理”机制，信用基础的形成需要一个逐步发展成熟的长期过程。
第二，“认识不足”。在社会主义初级阶段建立高度市场化的资本市场，我们没有成功的经验和现成的模式学习借鉴，主要依靠我们自身实践探索和经验积累，对我国资本市场自身规律、市场运行特点、监管和市场的关系等方面的认识，都需要理论、实践的积累。
第三，“法制不足”。这些年，有关各方面在完善市场法律制度体系方面已经下了很大功夫，市场法律法规体系建设取得了重大的进展，同时由于市场发展变化快，市场发展的配套法律环境还需要不断完善，另外，一部分市场主体法制观念淡薄，执法的协同性、有效性还需强化。
“三个不同”：首先，我国资本市场的上市公司是以国有企业为主，我们要在以国有企业为主的环境下促进资本市场的发展，需要不断地探索实践，完善相应的市场体制和机制。
其次，我国机构投资者比较少，以散户为主。国外资本市场发展较早，当时信息技术比较落后，只能通过经纪人交投，机构投资者相对发达。而我国资本市场建立在IT技术高度发展的时期，投资者可以很方便地参与交易，加上当时对机构严格限制，形成了散户为主的格局。中小投资者占多数，对于推动资本市场发展功不可没，但一些投资者的风险认知程度不足，风险承受能力较低。
再次，在股权文化上我们也有自己的特殊性，股权文化还不够成熟。资本约束不到位，市场约束不健全，跟风炒作、追涨杀跌的现象还比较突出，市场的诚信文化建设有待加强。
“三个不足”“三个不同”这些“新兴加转轨”的特征，是我国资本市场面临的实际。我们做任何事情都要从此出发，妥善处理成熟市场经验、规则与我国市场特点和需求的关系，坚定不移地加强市场基础性制度建设，积极稳妥地推进市场改革创新，坚持不懈地走符合我国实际的资本市场改革发展道路。
记者：经过金融危机，经济学界普遍思考政府与市场的界限如何划分的问题。中国资本市场在发展过程中，在政府与市场的边界方面，你有何思考？
尚福林：国际金融危机表明，缺乏监管、过度放任的资本市场潜藏着巨大的风险隐患。金融危机之后，发达市场普遍加大了监管力度，扩展了监管边界。应当说，一方面，美欧金融改革方案提出的许多措施，与我们多年来坚持强化市场和行业风险管理、防止风险积聚和外溢的做法是一致的；另一方面，对场外市场、对冲基金、信用评级机构等的监管，我国在这些领域还处于发展的初级和探索阶段，要切实加强这方面的探索性研究。
在处理政府和市场边界方面，我个人认为，一个很重要的方面，就是要处理好放松管制与加强监管的关系。两者是紧密相连、相辅相成的。
一方面，在监管到位的情况下，应当放手让市场主体自主创新，着力培育和完善市场机制，充分发挥市场机制作用，把市场能够办的事情，交给市场自己去办；另一方面，在监管不强的情况下，简单放开可能会引发市场风险，要始终立足于保护投资者特别是广大中小投资者合法权益，坚持“三公”原则，合理配置监管资源，把该管的管住，防范和化解系统性风险。
同时，要认识到，放松管制绝非放松监管，也不是简单的行政权下放，而是要与加强监管形成良性互动。要充分发挥交易所、行业协会等自律组织功能，推动相关市场主体各司其职、归位尽责，发挥好市场外部约束、自我约束和相互制衡三种机制的协同效应，共同促进市场有序、安全、高效运行。
记者：中国金融体系虽然发展迅速，但仍不是一个完整和成熟的市场。金融危机之后，世界金融体系的脆弱性也充分暴露，关于世界金融体系的发展趋势，你有何思考？中国金融体系的建设，还应在哪些方面重点进行？
尚福林：此次国际金融危机对世界金融体系造成了强烈冲击，世界经济金融格局正在进行调整，从中国金融市场的实际情况看，需要稳步推出与实体经济相协调的金融发展方式，优化金融结构，比如要扩大直接融资的比例，分散过分依赖银行体系融资带来的风险；进一步理顺金融体系的创新机制，培养差异化竞争的格局；同时，随着人民币国际化进程的发展，中国金融机构加强自身面对国际竞争环境的适应能力，也是当前我国金融体系发展需要重视的课题。
这次国际金融危机表明，放松对“大而不能倒”的金融机构的监管，对场外衍生品市场、对冲基金、私募基金等具有“系统重要性”的市场、机构和工具存在监管漏洞或监管空白，都是诱发资本市场系统性风险的重要因素。欧美发达国家在金融监管改革方案中纷纷提出加大对系统性风险的监测、评估和防范。
必须看到，对系统性风险的防范和化解仍是一个世界性难题。要充分借鉴国际经验并结合我国国情，进一步加强对金融市场不同主体行为模式及其互动关系的预防性研究，防止风险在不同主体间传递和转移；进一步强化对面向公众发行的金融理财类产品的监管协调和功能监管，减少“监管套利”和“监管真空”；进一步深化对资本跨境流动的监管，有效预警和处置国际市场风险。总的来看，对系统性风险的认识越深入、越充分、越全面，我们才能有的放矢、有备无患，更好地应对市场环境变化的挑战，维护国家经济金融体系的整体安全。
关于中国金融体系的建设，还有一个重要方面是扩大直接融资比重。中央多次提出，要积极扩大直接融资，这次“十二五规划”建议更是明确要求显著提高直接融资比重。发展直接融资，不仅拓宽了企业筹资渠道，还能分散过度依赖银行体系融资带来的风险。
当前和今后一个时期，要进一步丰富融资方式、融资工具，多渠道扩大直接融资比重。我们大力发展直接融资，一方面是大力发展股票市场，另一方面要大力发展债券市场，这对提高全社会资金使用效率有极大的促进作用，对服务国民经济发展也非常重要。
记者：世界经济再平衡，这是目前整个国际经济和政治领域都在关注和实践的问题，在这个过程中，你认为最大的困难是什么？在这一过程中，对中国经济的转型你有何思考？
尚福林：世界经济不平衡是当前世界经济的主要问题，其深层次原因是全球消费结构、生产结构的失衡，直接表现在全球贸易结构的失衡上。面对国际金融危机，世界经济面临再平衡、再调整，这将是一个缓慢的过程。当务之急在于，要基于各国不同的经济发展周期，加大不同国家和地区的宏观经济政策协调力度，更好地适应全球经济一体化的趋势，防止贸易保护主义抬头，促进资本和资源在全球范围内有序流动，推动世界经济稳步复苏。
经历过这次国际金融危机，世界经济金融格局正在进行广泛而深刻的调整，反思这场影响深远的国际金融危机，一个重要的共识是推动世界经济全面均衡和可持续增长，必须转变原有的经济发展模式，加快经济结构调整和金融改革。
从我国经济看，这次金融危机也反映出我们的经济发展方式不能适应新的形势。十七届五中全会对加快转变经济发展方式、调整经济结构做出了重要部署。要以加快转变经济发展方式为主线，准确把握世界经济结构进入调整期的特点，努力培育我国发展新优势；准确把握创新和产业转型处于孕育期的特点，努力抢占未来发展战略制高点；改善国内的消费结构，加快经济转型和结构调整。同时进一步深化改革，以更优化的经济结构和健康的金融体系，促进我国经济和全球经济的稳定发展。
具体在金融方面，在增加居民消费需求、发展战略性新兴产业、促进低碳经济等众多领域，银行、证券、保险都需要取长补短、互为补充，共同发挥好金融对转变经济发展方式的服务和保障作用。
从资本市场看，要不断发挥资本市场服务经济社会的功能，大力提升资本市场在促进资本形成、优化资源配置、鼓励创新创业和增强发展活力等方面的重要作用，要不断健全市场配置资源基础性作用的体制机制，努力推动资本市场稳定健康发展，为保持我国经济长期平稳较快发展做出更大贡献。
记者：针对当前中国的资本市场，如果再进一步完善进一步发展的话，你觉得最紧迫、最关键的问题是什么？
尚福林：从当前看，最重要的是培育市场机制。20年来，我国资本市场改革发展取得了巨大的成就，但在充分发挥市场机制作用，强化市场约束和资本约束方面都仍然需要做大量的工作，必须有意识地在推进制度改革中着重培育市场机制。
如在发行体制改革中，要在制度设计上促进市场主体“归位尽责”，发挥市场的价格发现功能；对上市公司要完善信息披露制度，增强公司透明度，强化市场对公司的约束机制；要提高投资者对市场风险的认知程度，通过投资者“用脚投票”发挥资本的约束机制。■
本刊记者王培成、王晓璐 实习记者 刁晓琼对此文亦有贡献
本文见《财经》杂志 2010年第26期 出版日期2010年12月20日 共有2条点评
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Linkedin Facebook Mixx Yahoo Buzz Twitter 豆瓣网 字号： 股权分置改革是一场历史性变革，规范整顿资本市场，改革新股发行制度，积极推进多层次市场建设和金融创新，中国资本市场改革发展取得了巨大成就，下一步必须有意识地在推进制度改革中着重培育市场机制
《财经》记者 乔晓会 《证券市场周刊》记者 李德林
1990年12月19日，上海证券交易所成立。通常，业内将这一天定为中国资本市场正式建立之日。
至今，中国资本市场成立已整20年。
正是当初一批有理想的留学归国青年、金融家及政府官员，在上世纪80年代末90年代初走到一起，以满腔的热情，为中国资本市场的建立奔走东西。
在姓“资”与姓“社”的争论氛围下，中国资本市场小心翼翼地开始了。
上交所、深交所先后正式建立，以1992年中国证监会成立为标志，资本市场成为中国金融系统中的独立一极。
监管体系不畅、法治很不健全、理念无从谈起，中国资本市场趟过了混乱的时期。以深圳“8·10”事件、“327”国债等惊心动魄的事件为典型，早期证券市场的参与者，经历了“血”与“火”的考验。
进入新世纪，中国资本市场逐渐走向法治化，股权分置改革也扫清了资本市场发展的最大障碍。机构投资者大量增加，市场规模不断壮大，多层次市场、新的交易机制不断建立。
到2010年11月底，A股市场上市公司2026家，总市值超过26万亿元， 跃居全球第二。
资本市场的建立，为中国经济、金融市场化发展提供了规范的硬约束环境，带动了国有企业改革、国有银行改革，同时对税收、会计、法律等方面的规范发展均起到了巨大的促进作用。
20年发展成绩斐然，但毕竟时间短暂，当前仍有诸多不足之处：各市场参与主体理念不成熟、法制体系不完善、市场机制不健全，等等。
在资本市场建立20周年之际，中国证监会主席尚福林接受了《财经》杂志、《证券市场周刊》的联合专访，就资本市场的热点问题进行了深入解剖。同时邀请两位参与资本市场建立并始终参与、关注资本市场发展的资深人士——中国投资有限责任公司总经理兼首席投资官高西庆及中国证券市场研究设计中心（联办）总干事王波明，畅谈资本市场的往事、发展、不足及未来。——编者
进入12月份，庆祝中国资本市场成立20周年的气氛渐浓。有关资本市场的大小论坛，必提及资本市场成立20周年。
作为中国资本市场的主管机构，中国证监会也在积极围绕这一主题组织各种活动。而中国证监会主席尚福林，自然成了近一段时期最忙的人，参加各种论坛，出席各种庆祝活动。
这位在2002年底临危受命、出任中国证监会主席的金融官员，已经在其任上工作整八年，成为中国证监会历任主席任期最长的一位。
尚福林上任后异常低调，面对市场下跌，一言不发。实际上，尚福林正在就资本市场的一系列问题低头调研。股权分置，成为资本市场进一步发展的最大障碍，也是最难逾越的大山，市场因此形容尚福林“坐在了火山口上”。
直到2004年1月，国务院发布《关于推进资本市场改革开放和稳定发展的若干意见》，“国九条”出台，发展资本市场首次提升到国家战略任务的高度。
2005年5月，股权分置改革启动，随后尚福林公开强调，“开弓没有回头箭”，以此向市场表示其决心。券商三年综合治理、股权分置改革等一系列硬仗，为尚福林给外界留下了“铁腕”的印象。
这位一直在中国金融系统工作的官员，虽然屡屡在不同层级出任要职，但极少接受媒体的采访。
2010年12月15日下午，尚福林在其办公室所在的北京金融街富凯大厦20层的会议室，接受了《财经》杂志与《证券市场周刊》的联合采访。
采访期间，尚福林始终面带微笑，即使遇到尖锐的问题，也平和回答，还时常以身边的例子解释资本市场的种种现象。给人的印象与“铁腕”丝毫无关。
常与尚福林接触的人形容，其性格“外柔内刚”，似很贴切。同时，也有人说其很“讲政治”。
在将近两个小时的采访里，尚福林回忆了股权分置改革过程中的诸多困难，畅谈了资本市场发展的关键问题、违法违规现象的治理及市场化改革的思路。
尚福林表示，股权分置改革对他而言，并不是无准备之仗，“开弓没有回头箭”不是胡说的，而是做了很多调研。“我不敢拿这个市场去冒风险。”尚福林说。
突围股权分置改革
股权分置改革经受住了市场和时间的考验，为实现资本市场的机制转换、功能发挥和市场的可持续发展奠定了制度基础
记者：2002年底，你调入证监会。当时正逢全球网络泡沫破裂、国际资本市场陷入低迷状态、中国股指也面临从历史性高位持续下跌的局面，舆论普遍认为你是坐到了中国股市的“火山口”，你对面临的困难有足够的准备吗？又是如何应对的？
尚福林：2002年，全球的股市陷入了网络泡沫破裂的低潮期，股市不断下挫，市场信心受到打击，中国股市也受到一定影响。从我国市场自身实际看，由于如何解决股权分置以及由此带来的一些问题一直没有明确，市场前景不明朗。部分市场参与者和理论界人士在当时对我国发展资本市场的前景产生了一些模糊认识，加上大股东侵占上市公司资金、券商挪用保证金、市场结构单一，一些问题日益突出，影响了投资者的积极性，股市低迷。
2002年，党的“十六大”明确提出“推进资本市场的改革开放和稳定发展”。按照中央的部署和要求，我们经过深入调研，认真分析市场形势，不断加深对资本市场发展规律和我国资本市场发展特点的认识，形成了尽快恢复市场信心，调整市场发展政策，加强市场基础性制度建设的工作思路，得到了国务院的高度重视和大力支持。
2004年国务院发布《关于推进资本市场改革开放和稳定发展的若干意见》（下称“国九条”），这几年来，贯彻落实党的“十六大”“十七大”及“国九条”精神，经过市场各方和社会各界的广泛参与和大力支持，资本市场基础性制度建设不断加强，股权分置改革、上市公司清欠解保、证券公司综合治理等重大改革基本完成。
与此同时，我们深化了股票发行体制改革，推出了创业板、股指期货和融资融券业务，加强了对内幕交易等违法违规行为的惩治打击力度。通过一系列的综合改革，我国资本市场承载力、影响力、开放度、透明度大幅提升，有效提升了市场运行的整体质量和效率，实现了重大的发展突破和转折性变化。
记者：可以说，没有股权分置，就没有中国股市。但是股权分置的确给中国资本市场运行造成很大的问题，而且解决难度大、风险大，为什么要在2005年进行股权分置改革?
尚福林：从我国证券市场设立之初的相关规定来看，对国有股等发起人股份流通问题没有明确的制度性安排，总体上采取的是搁置的办法。股权分置问题是由诸多历史原因形成的，主要是在改革开放早期，为避免姓资姓社的争论，同时又要推动股份制和资本市场试点发展而做出的一项特定安排。
现在回头去看，这是在市场初期特定的政治、经济、观念和法律环境下推出的一种创新，在当时条件下，这种制度安排确实也促进了资本市场的建立和发展。
随着社会主义市场经济体制的完善和资本市场发展环境的变化，特别是在市场规模发展到越来越大的时候，这个问题就越来越突出了。
一是因为一部分股票不能流通，它什么时候流通，以什么方式流通，投资者心里不踏实，就造成了投资者对市场预期的不稳定。二是因为一部分流通，一部分不流通，在这种情况下，扭曲了市场的定价机制，市场的价格发现功能受到了制约。三是市场兼并重组资源配置功能受到很大影响。好企业通过市场并购重组做大做强，这在成熟市场是普遍的一种做法。我们也希望我们的企业可以通过这种方式加快发展，但是国有股、法人股没有市场价，没有办法通过市场去做兼并重组。此外，股权分置还使公司治理缺乏共同利益基础，不利于上市公司规范运作，股权分置已经成为严重制约市场稳定运行和改革发展的重大制度障碍。
当时，一方面市场把国有股、法人股流通问题看做是悬在股市头上的“达摩克利斯之剑”，股权分置问题不解决，市场预期难以稳定，投资者信心难以恢复；另一方面股权分置问题在基本制度层面制约了我国资本市场的进一步改革和发展，这一问题无法靠市场自身消弭，股权分置问题拖得时间越长，积累的非流通股越多，解决的难度也就越大。经过认真的调查研究和多方面深入探讨，认识到必须尽早解决这一问题。
作为对市场价格形成机制和运行机制具有重要影响的制度性变革，为了解决国有股、法人股的流通问题，有关方面和专家学者、媒体进行了多方面的研究和探索，客观上形成了解决股权分置问题的市场预期。
特别是在2004年初“国九条”推出以后，大家对股权分置问题的认识也逐步统一了，解决问题的方式也由原来的国有股减持，变成了寻求全流通的方式，让国有股和法人股逐步拥有流通权。经过广泛深入的研究，对于股权分置改革的必要性、紧迫性以及基本操作思路的认识逐步深化，相关制度和技术条件逐步完善，启动股权分置改革已具备了必要的基础性条件。
记者：股权分置改革是中国股市一场历史性的变革，不仅需要勇气，更需要大智慧。你当时提出的“开弓没有回头箭”至今记忆犹新。但2005年股改试点开始时，股指甚至一度跌破1000点，能否介绍一下股改试点的决策以及试点过程中最艰难的地方？你们又是如何克服这些困难的？
尚福林：股权分置改革刚刚推出时，市场对当时能否平稳推进股权分置改革还没有足够信心，对推进改革的时机选择也有争论。国务院最终果断做出了积极稳妥推进股权分置改革的重大决策。实践证明，这一决策是十分正确的，也是十分及时的。
从我来讲，上任后经过多方调查，觉得如果不解决这个问题，中国市场很难往前发展。这件事儿搁不住、拖不得，越拖问题越多。解决股权分置问题，本质上是平衡非流通股股东和流通股股东之间的利益，消除A股市场股份流通的制度性差异。这项改革在国内外都没有先例可循，而且上市公司情况复杂、千差万别，当时推进股权分置改革面临两个突出问题：
第一，是不是国有资产流失等问题，我们通过反复研究之后认为，全流通本身使国有股可以得到市场的公允价格，是有利于保护国有资产的。
举例说，过去，国有企业要同外资搞合资，是用净资产计算公司的价值，现在要搞合资，是用市场价格，也就是用市值去计算价格，这是对国有资产的重要保护。
第二，股权分置改革在法律上有什么依据？通过认真研究，认为通过合同法的有关法理可以解决这个问题。用到股权分置改革上，因为在公司上市时国有股、法人股做了约定，暂不流通，国有股、法人股要流通，就要征得对方也就是流通股股东的同意，这是符合合同法法理的。最后形成了大股东提出方案，为保护中小股东的合法权益，要经过两次投票，有三分之二以上的中小股东同意，方案才能通过。为了方便中小投资者投票，在技术上做了些安排，建立了网络投票平台，通过交易系统大家可以参与投票。这样通过舆论引导、法律保障、技术支持，促进了股权分置改革。
当然，作为一项全新的改革，股权分置改革过程中也存在一些不确定性，市场上对于国有股送股的看法也不一致。在推进股权分置改革过程中，也确实面对许多实际困难，承受了很大压力。经过反复研究商讨，最终确立了“统一组织、分散决策”的操作原则和“试点先行、协调推进、分步解决”的操作步骤。
“统一组织”保障了股改的大方向、大原则的一致性，而“分散决策”充分尊重上市公司股东的合法权益，鼓励两类股东通过充分协商解决大股东的流通权问题，同时可以防止“整体试错”，即使个别公司的股改方案不能通过，也不会影响股权分置改革的全局推进。
第一批有四家企业参与股改，一家没通过，没通过我觉得是好事，说明市场各方主体很重视，流通股股东在积极参与股权分置改革；第二批开始很多人怀疑，认为1000多家上市公司什么时候才能做完？在各方面的支持下，第二批推出了40多家，加上大型国企的加入，市场基本上形成了推进改革的预期。
在党中央、国务院的统一部署下，我们会同国资委、财政部、人民银行等部门，用工作机制创新、政策创新和方案创新的办法解决改革中的各类复杂问题，形成了股权分置改革领导小组的政策配合机制、地方人民政府的组织领导机制、交易所的方案指导机制、两类股东间的沟通协商机制，通过不断克服困难，改革初期存在的疑虑和争议逐步消除，各种类型的上市公司的股改难题妥善破解，改革环境逐步改善，股权分置改革的积极作用在改革推进中逐步显现，也逐步得到了社会舆论的广泛认同和支持，最终稳妥地解决了股权分置问题。
股权分置改革是在我国资本市场“新兴加转轨”的市场条件下，探索出了一条行之有效、适合中国资本市场发展道路的改革路径，经受住了市场考验和时间的考验，为实现资本市场的机制转换、功能发挥和市场的可持续发展奠定了制度基础。截至2010年11月底，A股市场流通市值为19.01万亿元，流通市值占总市值的比例由2005年底的32.8％上升到72％。
资本市场整顿规范
经过几年脱胎换骨式的转化，我国证券期货行业历史遗留的风险隐患基本排除，全行业已经步入良性健康发展轨道
记者：2003年开始，不少券商出现了大量的违规国债回购以及挪用客户保证金现象。2003年8月，证监会提出了券商监管“三大铁律”，开始对券商进行有步骤的整顿规范，又对证券公司进行了为期三年综合治理，在券商整顿过程中都采取了哪些措施？
尚福林：我国证券公司最初是从银行或者信托公司的证券营业部发展而来，业内有人讲，这是先有“儿子”后有“父亲”，因此在管理上没有一套投资银行的管理办法，有些是按商业银行理念在经营证券公司，理念模糊，甚至有一些观点认为银行可以拿存款放贷，证券公司也可以用客户保证金进行经营。2002年到2004年，随着市场结构性调整，一批证券公司多年积累的风险呈现集中爆发态势。
2003年8月，我们召开证券公司规范发展座谈会，明确了严禁挪用客户交易结算资金、严禁挪用客户委托管理的资产和严禁挪用客户托管的债券等“三大监管铁律”。2004年8月，在国务院的领导下，我们下决心三管齐下，实施风险处置、日常监管和推进行业发展的综合治理，采取全面摸清底数、督促公司整改、平稳处置风险、改革基础性制度、严格责任追究等系列措施。
经过三年的艰苦努力，到2007年8月，圆满完成了综合治理预定目标：平稳处置了南方、闽发、“德隆系”等31家高风险证券公司，彻底纠正了证券公司挪保、委托理财等违法违规行为，化解了长期积累的系统性风险，初步建立了证券公司市场退出和投资者保护的长效机制。
在券商整顿和综合治理过程中，全面梳理、完善了证券公司的基本管理制度。改革完善了第三方独立存管、国债回购等基础制度，实现了风险的制度性隔离，全面实施了以净资本为核心的风险动态监控制度，依法严厉查处违法违规的机构和责任人，严肃市场法纪，强化了对股东和高管人员行为的约束。综合治理之后，我们及时总结经验，进一步加强行业风险合规监管，指导各证券公司设立了合规部门，聘任了合规总监，强化了对重点环节及新产品、新业务的合规管理，实现外部监管与内部约束的有机互动。
记者：疗伤总是一件痛苦的事情。整顿券商，证券市场大量违规风险现象彻底暴露，当时很多人认为你对券商的整顿对于股市来说，是“刮骨疗毒”。一边是整顿压力，一边是市场低迷的压力。面对这样的考验，你是如何考量的，又有哪些收获？
尚福林：综合治理中压力是多方面的，整顿过程牵涉到多家证券公司破产、重组等问题，尤其是一些大证券公司，无论是资产规模、债务总额、违规程度都非常复杂，处理这一类证券公司会暴露出资本市场很多的历史遗留问题。但问题根源不解决，迟早会吞噬其他健康的肌体，要想从根本上恢复市场活力，提振市场信心，就必须对存在的问题进行彻底解决。
综合治理，是在党中央、国务院的领导下，在各地方政府、有关部门和司法机关等方面的大力支持下，我们集系统监管合力实施的一次坚决果断、周密配套的监管行动和影响深远的制度改革，也是全行业以浴火重生的勇气和信念进行的一次全面深入的自我整顿和自我规范。
在整顿规范的同时，我们把促进行业创新发展放在更加突出的位置，支持证券期货经营机构在与法律法规、监管政策不冲突的前提下，根据市场需要、客户需求和自身能力开展创新，促进其做优做强，提高行业竞争力。
经过几年脱胎换骨式的转化，我国证券期货行业历史遗留的风险隐患基本排除，全行业已经步入良性健康发展轨道。现在想来，挪用客户保证金是诱发系统风险的重要因素。如果在金融危机前没有处理这些公司，难以想象我们的资本市场在本次国际金融危机冲击下会变为什么样子。现在情况是，面对国际金融危机的严峻冲击，我国证券期货行业没有发生大的风险，仍然保持了稳健经营、规范发展的态势。
记者：在整顿券商的同时，证监会一直在积极推进规范上市公司运作。证监会如何解决大股东占款、公司治理“形备而神不至”、诚信水平不高等问题，如何化解工作中的难题？
尚福林：上市公司是资本市场的基石。我国资本市场中的上市公司具有国有股占多数的特殊股权结构，许多民营背景的上市公司又多脱胎于传统家族企业。受体制性、机制性因素和惯性思维制约，大股东挪用上市公司资金、治理不规范、违规信息披露等行为时有发生，成为困扰资本市场健康发展的一个突出问题。
按照《国务院批转证监会关于提高上市公司质量意见的通知》（国发[2005]34号）的要求，近几年，我们围绕提高上市公司质量，重点强化了以下几方面的工作：
第一，强化上市公司独立的法人财产权，推动上市公司规范运作。上市公司资产是属于公司全体股东的“共有财产”，使用和处置必须符合法律法规及公司章程规定。在境外成熟市场，大股东侵占上市公司资金属于侵犯上市公司独立法人财产权，通常会判重罪。
讲个故事：一个国有控股股东挪用了上市公司的钱，上市公司的人跟他讲挪用公款不对。他对人家说，上市公司股东有多少人？充其量就是几万人？我是国有公司，我背后是13亿人民，我不是挪公款，我挪的是私款给公家用。在我国，如果不从根本上承认、尊重并严格保护上市公司享有独立法人财产权，中国资本市场是搞不好的。
近几年在这方面我们做了大量的工作，全国人大新修订的《刑法》把挪用上市公司资金列为犯罪行为，并建立了一套法律规则。这些法律法规的建立是针对所有上市公司的，并不因为是国企就可以例外。
在工作实践中，针对我国上市公司大股东违规侵占上市公司资金的情况，我们会同公安部、人民银行、国资委、税务总局、工商总局、银监会等七部委开展清欠攻坚战。在各级政府的共同努力下，两年之内涉及资金占用问题的上市公司家数和占用金额同比下降九成。清欠期间，我们会联合有关部门规范上市公司对外担保行为，化解违规担保和连环担保风险，促进上市公司质量进一步提升。
第二，强化上市公司治理，健全和完善内部制衡机制。有效的公司治理机制是支撑上市公司健康发展的重要保障，是提高上市公司质量系统工程中的中心环节。自2007年初至2009年底，证监会开展了为期三年的“上市公司治理专项活动”。共发现违反公司治理相关规则的问题10795个，截至2009年底，已督促完成整改8395个治理问题，整改率达到98％以上。通过专项治理，上市公司确立治理原则和公司治理框架，全面整改了治理方面存在的问题，进一步提高了规范运作意识，完善了内部控制制度和有关基础性制度，整体规范治理水平明显提高。
第三，强化诚实守信，规范上市公司信息披露行为。上市公司信息披露不仅直接影响到资本市场的透明度，也是维护市场“三公”原则的基础。近年来，我们以信息披露监管为抓手，建立了较为完善的信息披露规范体系，形成了以《证券法》为主，全方位、多层次的上市公司信息披露制度；构建了以证监会行政监管为核心，派出机构和交易者各司其职、合理分工、协调管理的信息披露监管体系。
近年来，我们坚决查处和曝光了一批社会影响力大的典型案件，沪深交易所也对相关上市公司信息披露违规进行了处理和公开谴责。今后我们将进一步加大监管力度，督促上市公司真实、准确、完整、及时地披露信息，切实履行好信息披露义务。
随着我国经济的持续快速发展和提高上市公司质量工作的深入开展，上市公司正在成为推动国民经济发展的生力军。截至2010年11月底，沪深两市共有上市公司2026家，比2005年增加680家，总市值26.43万亿元，占同期GDP的比例由2005年的20％上升到2009年的72％。利润总额占全国规模以上企业利润总额的一半以上，缴纳的所得税占全国企业四分之一以上。
探索新股发行改革
发行制度改革的整体考虑，就是让发行制度更加市场化，让市场主体归位尽责
记者：在这几年的改革中，新股发行一直是市场关注的焦点。证监会推行了保荐制，重组了发审委，裁减了三分之二的发审委员，并且一改委员秘密制度，审核工作完全透明公开化。推进发审委改革基于哪些方面的考虑，此后重组审核委员会的成立跟发审委的改组有着怎样的内在联系？
尚福林：我们国家的发行制度，一直都处在探索完善的过程中。一开始是额度制，它是市场建立初期，由于市场机制不完善不得不采取的一种方式，在那种条件下大概是最可取的一种方式，也是一种有益的探索。发审委的建立是希望吸收专业人士对上市公司进行专业的判断。运行一段时间以后，发现在对发审委员的问责制度和监督机制尚不完善的情况下，容易产生权力和责任不对等的情况。
发行制度改革的整体考虑，就是让发行制度更加市场化，让市场主体归位尽责。为把好“入口关”，我们在发行改革中最先动的是保荐人制度。保荐人制度的推出就是让保荐人在公司上市的时候承担责任。使公司在上市前就完成改制，将其按照股份制公司、按照公众公司的标准去改造。而不是对这些企业进行包装，包装之后让这些企业来过审核关。
我曾经把这个比喻为，过去发行是过一个关口，现在是过一个管道。它要想过这个管道，就必须按照公众公司的标准去改造才能过得去。
深化发审委的改革，就是让它更加阳光化、更加专业化。
第一，阳光是最好的消毒剂，我们将全部发审委委员名单、每次审核的企业和委员名单都公开，让社会来监督。
第二，聘请专业人士担任发审委员，这些人员大部分是会计师、律师。他们的职业生涯是和社会的认可度联系在一起的，是受社会监督的。
第三，发审制度上保证能够集体决策，而不是哪一个人说了就能办得通的。这样发审委名单比过去缩小了，从会计师事务所和律师事务所引进一些专业人士，形成了由专职人员组成的专门机构。
第四，从工作程序上，我们也做了一些安排。比如委员的所有工作都要有工作底稿，发审会议全程录像，以后可能还要追责，有非常严格的要求，保证能够最大限度地正常发挥他应该发挥的职能，保护投资者的合法权益。
这几年还改革了重组委，使重组委更具有独立性，证监会希望在重组方面多听取专家意见，按照新股发审标准和规则，将一切审核透明化，将问责机制跟监督机制透明化，问责与监督得到更有力的执行。
记者：这两年针对发行制度改革，证监会分两个阶段特推出了改革措施，在发行方面是否还会进行更为深入的改革？市场一直在呼吁发行备案制度，证监会是否在这方面已经有新的计划？
尚福林：发行体制是资本市场直接融资制度的重要组成部分之一。发行监管工作的目标应该是，既能对投资者合法权益提供保护，又能支持企业利用资本市场实现快速发展；既能把住准入关，又能兼顾市场效率，掌控好进入资本市场的第一道闸门。
保荐制度、发审委制度、询价制度，构成现阶段发行监管的基础制度。拟上市公司通过保荐人推荐和发审委审核后，到市场上定价。同样，在定价机制上我们也希望更加市场化。2008年以来，我们深入调查研究，广泛听取市场意见，按照分步实施、逐步完善的思路，于2009年6月启动新一轮新股发行体制改革，重点是完善询价和申购机制，优化网上发行制度安排，重视中小投资者的参与意愿，加强风险揭示，同时取消了对新股定价的窗口指导。
2010年10月，我们在充分听取各界意见的基础上，推出了第二阶段改革措施，重点是提高单个机构的认购份额，促使询价机构审慎报价，适当扩大参与询价的机构范围，增强定价信息透明度，完善回拨机制和中止发行机制等，进一步强化了市场约束，完善了市场化运行机制。
新股发行体制改革推进一年多来，积极效应逐步显现，股票发行中的市场约束力不断显现，市场对新股发行的承受能力逐步增强，股票发行改革的市场化方向得到了市场各方普遍认同。
同时也要看到，进行改革和培育机制是一个过程，不可能一蹴而就。成熟的市场，经常会有股票发不出去的时候，而中国的市场，什么股票都能卖出去，股价高也有人买，这说明市场的风险意识、市场的约束机制还不完善。我们将在改革实施过程中，进一步总结经验，今后在改革过程中要朝着两个方向努力，一方面是更加市场化，另一方面是进一步促使市场各方归位尽责，形成市场约束机制，为从核准制向注册制过渡培育可靠的市场基础。
坚持市场化改革取向
我们整个市场的创新步伐、中介机构培育和投资者结构等，与成熟市场还有很大的一段距离
记者：近几年来，证监会一直积极推动资本市场市场化改革，你对中国资本市场市场化的进度是否满意？能否介绍一下进一步推进市场化改革的思路？
尚福林：在“新兴加转轨”条件下发展资本市场，必须坚持市场化改革取向，不断完善有利于市场稳定运行和长期发展的体制机制。回顾历史可以发现，资本市场20年发展历程也是市场化改革稳步推进、市场运行机制不断完善的过程。
特别是近几年来，伴随着股权分置改革的顺利完成，进一步深化发行体制改革，切实提高了发行审核透明和新股定价市场化水平。大幅取消行政审批项目，将工作重点从事前准入逐步转向事中监管和事后问责，2002年以来，我们加大行政许可改革的力度，分五批取消和调整了行政许可审批项目114项，超过原有行政许可审批项目的三分之二，范围涉及融资、并购等一些主要业务领域。
同时，大力推进市场化并购重组，促进上市公司产业升级和行业整合。充分调动市场各参与主体积极性，营造有利于创新发展的市场环境，深入开展投资者教育，积极培育健康股权文化。
总体看，经过近几年发展，在强化风险可控的前提下，以市场为导向、以需求为动力的产品和业务创新机制初步形成，市场机制和中介机构在市场筛选、定价、调节供求等方面的作用更加突出，市场内在稳定机制和相互制衡机制日益健全。
我们也清醒地认识到，我国资本市场建立至今不足20年，西方有些国家资本市场已经有200多年的历史，应该说，我们整个市场的创新步伐、中介机构培育和投资者结构等，与成熟市场还有很大的一段距离。
我们将主动适应新情况、新形势和新变化，把继续提高市场化水平作为市场基础性制度建设的重要内容，坚持培育和完善市场运行机制，健全资本约束和市场约束，不断完善市场股权文化、法律制度、信用体系等，充分发挥市场自我调节和内在稳定功能，不断健全完善市场体制机制，巩固市场在配置资源中的基础性作用。
记者：创业板推出时，考虑到市场规模，发行上市速度比较快，因此也不可避免出现个别企业质量相对不高的情况，证监会将如何加强创业板公司监管，是否也会采取西方的升降级制度，对发展壮大的公司跃升主板，对业绩差的公司实行直接退市政策？
尚福林：创业板企业大部分处于成长期，创新能力强、成长性高，同时也具有业绩不稳定的特点，对新技术、新模式的探索还存在不确定性，创业板市场面临非理性交易、投机炒作和市场操纵的风险也较高。因此，必须不断深化对创业板市场规律的认识，不断加强和完善创业板监管。
创业板自2009年10月推出以来，证监会始终坚持“从严监管”原则。针对创业板市场特点，逐步完善市场配套法律体系和监管规则，切实把好市场准入关口，强化信息披露监管，深入进行风险揭示，大力创新和改进监管手段，严厉打击违法违规行为，不断提高创业板市场监管的有效性。同时，深圳交易所也全面强化自律监管，在严格市场监控、募集资金管理等方面做了大量工作。一年多来，我国创业板市场总体运行平稳，功能初步显现，正在朝着预期的方向发展。
我们也注意到，较之主板市场，我国中小板和创业板市场市盈率相对较高，这既体现出市场对成长性、创新型企业发展有着积极的预期，也反映出市场内在约束机制还不完善，风险意识有待强化。
我们将不断总结经验，坚持改革创新，推动发行人、投资者、承销商等市场主体归位尽责和相互制衡，引导市场力量和中介机构在市场定价、调节供求等方面发挥更大的作用，督促中介落实好投资者适当性管理制度，加大风险警示，更好地引导投资者增强风险意识。监管部门和交易所将完善创业板持续监管机制，逐步健全符合创业板实际的监管体系。
此外，在推进多层次市场体系建设过程中，证监会将统筹建立转板和退市机制问题，积极研究相关制度安排，稳步推进主板、中小板退市制度改革，探索建立创业板上市公司退市制度，进一步提高上市公司质量和市场效率，优化市场资源配置功能。
记者：现在中国资本市场除了主板、创业板、中小板外，还积极推进场外市场、国际板等建设，在完善多层次资本市场设计的同时，如何实现多元化的市场监管体系构建？
尚福林：监管体系的建设和监管能力的提高是一个长期的任务，是一个需要根据市场发展变化不断调整和优化的过程。
近年来，我们努力探索和实践完善监管体系的新路径。从内部看，建立了一系列的系统内部多方参与的综合监管体系，如上市公司辖区监管责任制和综合监管体系、期货市场“五位一体”（证监会、证监局、交易所、监控中心、协会）监管体系、以净资本为核心的证券公司动态监管体系等。
从外部看，积极争取相关部委的支持，推动建立起打击非法证券活动协调机制、上市公司规范运作专题工作小组、反洗钱信息定期通报机制等监管协调机制和综合防控内幕交易的机制。这些监管体系的建立和运行，对于提高监管效果、改进市场秩序，发挥了积极的作用。
伴随着发展环境的变化和创新步伐的加快，跨市场产品相继出现，市场的层次边界不断扩大。一方面，要继续完善监管机构、自律组织、交易所共同组成的多层次监管体系，合理划分行政监管与自律监管职责边界，建立完善针对市场风险和违法违规行为的快速决策和反应机制。
另一方面，继续加强监管机构间的协调与合作，将综合监管协调机制常态化、规范化、制度化，逐步探索和强化对跨市场产品的功能监管，减少“监管套利”和“监管真空”。此外，还要适应市场对外开放的需要，加强国际监管合作，在“引进来”和“走出去”过程中，加强对资本跨境流动的监管，切实维护市场秩序和金融安全。
创新发展与监管强化
要积极探索既能调动市场积极性，增强发展活力，又能防止创新失控，有效避免系统性风险的新机制，促进市场稳定健康发展
记者：中国证券市场近年来已经引入了如融资融券、股指期货等风险管理工具。国际金融危机后，证监会如何考量和推动资本市场的创新发展？
尚福林：创新是金融市场发展的动力源泉。从欧美等金融市场看，金融创新过度与监管不力是这次金融危机的直接诱因。
危机之后，欧美发达国家也都在借危机反思，主动进行金融改革和制度修正，试图在保护市场发展、增强市场活力与强化市场监管、降低系统风险之间寻求平衡。而就新兴市场整体而言，面对的主要问题仍是创新能力相对不足、缺乏核心竞争力和持续发展能力。
这几年，我们大力加强市场化的创新机制建设，深化了股票发行体制改革，大力推动了市场化并购重组，启动了创业板，推出了可转债、可分离公司债、ETF等市场交易产品，2002年以来新上市期货品18个。今年以来，我们推出了股指期货和融资融券业务试点，改变了我国证券市场运行机制，丰富了资本市场的风险管理工具。
我们将继续坚持在风险可测、可控、可承受的前提下，稳步推动行业的产品、业务、组织和制度创新，不断探索以市场为导向的资本市场创新机制，稳步发展符合经济发展内在需要的产品和服务，增强创新活动对经济发展的支持力度。
当然，谈资本市场的改革创新，其中一个应有之义就是，要紧密结合实体经济发展需要与市场发展自身要求，处理好创新和监管的关系，守住不发生系统性金融风险的底线。
在金融行业的“三性”当中，风险性也是第一位的。深化我国资本市场的创新发展，要把服务于实体经济实际需求作为金融创新的基本前提，把提高市场透明度作为金融创新的重要基础，把加强诚信建设作为金融创新的内在要求，把加强市场监管作为金融创新的基本保障。
要积极探索新机制，使其既能调动市场积极性，增强发展活力，又能防止创新失控，有效避免系统性风险，从而促进市场稳定健康发展。
记者：证监会一直致力于打击内幕交易，最近国务院办公厅转发了五部委《关于依法打击和防控内幕交易的意见》，这份文件出台有什么背景。当前证券市场内幕交易存在什么样的新特点？在查处的过程中，主要存在哪些困难？
尚福林：股权分置改革完成后，伴随着全流通市场的形成，上市公司并购重组日趋活跃。我们做过一个统计，近几年我国企业兼并重组中，40％以上是通过资本市场实现的。在这种背景下，利用上市公司并购重组信息进行内幕交易的现象呈现多发态势，逐步成为市场监管中的突出矛盾。
内幕交易是各国市场监管中面临的共性难题。我国是“新兴加转轨”的市场，面临的难题更多。
一是法制意识淡薄。部分市场主体对内幕交易的违法和违纪后果重视不够，没有将内幕交易行为同违法犯罪联系起来。
二是决策链条长。据调查，目前国有上市公司并购重组涉及的环节平均为六个，涉及到内幕信息的人员往往在几十人以上。
三是利益驱动强。内幕交易形式隐蔽，且容易赚快钱、赚大钱，诱惑很大。在某些案件中，甚至成为隐性贿赂的方式。
四是股市文化不健康。一些投资者投机意识相对较重，经常主动打探内幕信息。
五是制度不健全。2005年修改的《证券法》虽然规定了内幕交易民事赔偿制度，但具体细则还没有出台，加之我国没有“举证责任倒置”，致使很多案件“调查难”“举证难”。
针对防范和打击内幕交易过程中的难题，今年以来，我们及时调整工作重点，会同公安部、监察部、国资委、预防腐败局等部门共同启动内幕交易综合防控专题调研，报请国务院办公厅11月16日转发了五部委《关于依法打击和防控内幕交易的意见》，对依法打击和防控内幕交易工作做出了统筹部署和安排，初步形成了综合防控和打击内幕交易的制度体系和监督机制。
在工作实践中，我们加大执法力度，统一部署、快速行动，组织全系统开展打击内幕交易专项工作。截至11月底，我们共立案调查内幕交易案件50件，因内幕交易对19名个人、三家机构做出行政处罚，将15起涉嫌内幕交易犯罪案件移送公安机关，查处和曝光了“中山公用”“上海祖龙”“天山纺织”等一批社会影响较大的大要案，打击内幕交易专项工作取得了良好的社会效果。
证监会将与有关部门一道，进一步深化内幕交易综合防治体系建设，积极推动制定《国家工作人员接触内幕信息管理办法》。出台《上市公司内幕信息知情人登记制度》，对于市场内幕交易违法违规行为，坚持露头就打，发现一起，查处一起，绝不手软。
记者：除了创业板，场外交易市场一直被看成是新股培育场所，下一步如何推进场外交易市场建设？国际板一直被视为与国际接轨的重要渠道，目前进展如何？
尚福林：近年来，随着中小板和创业板相继推出，我国资本市场基本形成了多层次市场体系框架。但总体来看，市场覆盖面还不足。当前的一项重要工作是场外市场建设。目前我们已经初步拟定了中关村代办转让系统扩大试点方案，明确了非上市股份公司股份公开转让的监管原则，基本形成了场外市场建设的总体思路。下一阶段，我们要以扩大覆盖面为重点，加快中关村代办股份转让试点扩大工作，抓紧推进全国性场外交易市场建设，进一步完善市场体系，更好地满足经济社会的投融资需求。
建设国际板是我们当前市场体系建设的另一项重点工作。建设国际板是我国资本市场改革开放的内在需要，同时从宏观经济层面来看，也是国家对外开放大局的需要。去年以来，我们就国际板的法律适用、市场定位、投资者保护、财务会计等问题进行了认真梳理和研究，同时与有关部委积极进行沟通协调，研究制定国际板制度设计和相关配套规则。
下一阶段，我们要进一步加强与有关部门沟通协商，做好研究论证、分析评估，稳步推进国际板建设的相关准备工作。推出国际板目前没有具体时间表。但我相信，随着国际板在未来的推出，我国资本市场的国际化进程迈出重要步伐，市场自身的体系结构也将更加完善，在服务国民经济大局方面的地位功能将跨上一个新的台阶。
记者：证监会在股指期货推出之后，除了加强监管，对交易规则有没有新的思考？新的金融衍生品推出方面，证监会如何去推动这方面新业务的发展？
尚福林：今年4月股指期货的正式推出，是我国资本市场发展历程中的一件大事，标志着我国资本市场改革发展又迈出了一大步，对于发育和完善我国资本市场体系具有重要意义。股指期货上市后我们始终坚持强化风险防范不动摇，部署系统有关单位实行严格的风险控制措施，落实跨市场监管协作制度安排，积极引导机构投资者有序参与。
在外部环境调整变化、市场波幅较大的情况下，股指期货市场经受住了考验，实现了顺利开局、平稳运行的预期目标。下一阶段我们将结合市场新情况及时完善相关规则制度，继续指导中金所深化与加强期货市场一线监管，逐步发挥股指期货市场功能。
股指期货的顺利推出与平稳运行，为我国金融期货市场发展开了一个好头。发展金融期货市场，发挥金融期货风险规避、价格发现、资产配置等作用，有助于提高金融体系的效率与弹性，增强抵御风险、维护金融安全的能力。我们将认真总结商品期货与股指期货发展的经验，进一步研究探索符合经济发展需要的金融衍生产品，按照循序渐进、风险可控原则，稳步推进金融衍生品创新，逐步发挥金融衍生品的功能，提高期货市场在更高层次服务经济的能力。
记者：中国资本市场体系中，债券市场早于股票市场，但是发展规模仍然很小，你认为如何推进债券市场的发展？
尚福林：目前，发达国家资本市场基本上是股票规模、国债和公司债依次从小到大的“金字塔型”结构，而我国则是股票市场大、债券市场小的“倒金字塔型”结构。目前，我国公司债券和其他固定收益类产品市场发展相对滞后，不能满足投资者不同的风险偏好和进行有效投资组合的需要，既不利于资本市场的均衡、协调发展，也不利于金融体系的安全和稳定。债券市场发展滞后，已成为制约资本市场功能发挥的一个瓶颈。
2007年全国金融工作会议提出，加快推进银行间债券市场和交易所市场相互联通，完善债券管理体制，加快形成集中监管、互联互通的债券市场。证监会一直高度重视推动债券市场发展。目前，经过与央行、银监会等相关主管部门的共同研究推动，上市商业银行参与交易所债券市场试点工作已经进入了操作阶段。
下一阶段，我们要积极落实上市商业银行参与交易所债券市场试点的各项具体安排。同时要努力把债券市场发展成为提高直接融资比重的重要渠道，进一步优化和改善公司债券市场准入、债券审核、信用评级以及投资者服务等方面的制度安排，提高审核效率，切实有效增加公司债融资规模，继续推进债券市场的互联互通，加快建立安全高效、监管到位、统一互联的债券市场。
着重培育市场机制
我国市场仍然是“新兴加转轨”的市场，与发达国家甚至是很多发展中国家相比，面临的问题是不一样的。从当前看，最重要的是培育市场机制
记者：20年很短，也很曲折，中国资本市场距离一个成熟市场还有很多路要走，你认为我们现在的市场与成熟市场相比，需要解决哪些方面的问题？
尚福林：20年来，中国资本市场从无到有，从小到大，迅速发展，在许多方面走过了成熟市场几十年甚至是上百年的道路。同时也要看到，我国市场仍然是“新兴加转轨”的市场，与发达国家甚至是很多发展中国家相比，面临的问题是不一样的，我把这些问题概况为“三个不足”“三个不同”：
“三个不足”：第一，“信用不足”。马克思指出，“信用制度是资本主义的私人企业逐渐转化为资本主义的股份公司的主要基础。”与成熟市场相比，我国信用体系不健全，商业信用不发达，缺乏健全的“委托-代理”机制，信用基础的形成需要一个逐步发展成熟的长期过程。
第二，“认识不足”。在社会主义初级阶段建立高度市场化的资本市场，我们没有成功的经验和现成的模式学习借鉴，主要依靠我们自身实践探索和经验积累，对我国资本市场自身规律、市场运行特点、监管和市场的关系等方面的认识，都需要理论、实践的积累。
第三，“法制不足”。这些年，有关各方面在完善市场法律制度体系方面已经下了很大功夫，市场法律法规体系建设取得了重大的进展，同时由于市场发展变化快，市场发展的配套法律环境还需要不断完善，另外，一部分市场主体法制观念淡薄，执法的协同性、有效性还需强化。
“三个不同”：首先，我国资本市场的上市公司是以国有企业为主，我们要在以国有企业为主的环境下促进资本市场的发展，需要不断地探索实践，完善相应的市场体制和机制。
其次，我国机构投资者比较少，以散户为主。国外资本市场发展较早，当时信息技术比较落后，只能通过经纪人交投，机构投资者相对发达。而我国资本市场建立在IT技术高度发展的时期，投资者可以很方便地参与交易，加上当时对机构严格限制，形成了散户为主的格局。中小投资者占多数，对于推动资本市场发展功不可没，但一些投资者的风险认知程度不足，风险承受能力较低。
再次，在股权文化上我们也有自己的特殊性，股权文化还不够成熟。资本约束不到位，市场约束不健全，跟风炒作、追涨杀跌的现象还比较突出，市场的诚信文化建设有待加强。
“三个不足”“三个不同”这些“新兴加转轨”的特征，是我国资本市场面临的实际。我们做任何事情都要从此出发，妥善处理成熟市场经验、规则与我国市场特点和需求的关系，坚定不移地加强市场基础性制度建设，积极稳妥地推进市场改革创新，坚持不懈地走符合我国实际的资本市场改革发展道路。
记者：经过金融危机，经济学界普遍思考政府与市场的界限如何划分的问题。中国资本市场在发展过程中，在政府与市场的边界方面，你有何思考？
尚福林：国际金融危机表明，缺乏监管、过度放任的资本市场潜藏着巨大的风险隐患。金融危机之后，发达市场普遍加大了监管力度，扩展了监管边界。应当说，一方面，美欧金融改革方案提出的许多措施，与我们多年来坚持强化市场和行业风险管理、防止风险积聚和外溢的做法是一致的；另一方面，对场外市场、对冲基金、信用评级机构等的监管，我国在这些领域还处于发展的初级和探索阶段，要切实加强这方面的探索性研究。
在处理政府和市场边界方面，我个人认为，一个很重要的方面，就是要处理好放松管制与加强监管的关系。两者是紧密相连、相辅相成的。
一方面，在监管到位的情况下，应当放手让市场主体自主创新，着力培育和完善市场机制，充分发挥市场机制作用，把市场能够办的事情，交给市场自己去办；另一方面，在监管不强的情况下，简单放开可能会引发市场风险，要始终立足于保护投资者特别是广大中小投资者合法权益，坚持“三公”原则，合理配置监管资源，把该管的管住，防范和化解系统性风险。
同时，要认识到，放松管制绝非放松监管，也不是简单的行政权下放，而是要与加强监管形成良性互动。要充分发挥交易所、行业协会等自律组织功能，推动相关市场主体各司其职、归位尽责，发挥好市场外部约束、自我约束和相互制衡三种机制的协同效应，共同促进市场有序、安全、高效运行。
记者：中国金融体系虽然发展迅速，但仍不是一个完整和成熟的市场。金融危机之后，世界金融体系的脆弱性也充分暴露，关于世界金融体系的发展趋势，你有何思考？中国金融体系的建设，还应在哪些方面重点进行？
尚福林：此次国际金融危机对世界金融体系造成了强烈冲击，世界经济金融格局正在进行调整，从中国金融市场的实际情况看，需要稳步推出与实体经济相协调的金融发展方式，优化金融结构，比如要扩大直接融资的比例，分散过分依赖银行体系融资带来的风险；进一步理顺金融体系的创新机制，培养差异化竞争的格局；同时，随着人民币国际化进程的发展，中国金融机构加强自身面对国际竞争环境的适应能力，也是当前我国金融体系发展需要重视的课题。
这次国际金融危机表明，放松对“大而不能倒”的金融机构的监管，对场外衍生品市场、对冲基金、私募基金等具有“系统重要性”的市场、机构和工具存在监管漏洞或监管空白，都是诱发资本市场系统性风险的重要因素。欧美发达国家在金融监管改革方案中纷纷提出加大对系统性风险的监测、评估和防范。
必须看到，对系统性风险的防范和化解仍是一个世界性难题。要充分借鉴国际经验并结合我国国情，进一步加强对金融市场不同主体行为模式及其互动关系的预防性研究，防止风险在不同主体间传递和转移；进一步强化对面向公众发行的金融理财类产品的监管协调和功能监管，减少“监管套利”和“监管真空”；进一步深化对资本跨境流动的监管，有效预警和处置国际市场风险。总的来看，对系统性风险的认识越深入、越充分、越全面，我们才能有的放矢、有备无患，更好地应对市场环境变化的挑战，维护国家经济金融体系的整体安全。
关于中国金融体系的建设，还有一个重要方面是扩大直接融资比重。中央多次提出，要积极扩大直接融资，这次“十二五规划”建议更是明确要求显著提高直接融资比重。发展直接融资，不仅拓宽了企业筹资渠道，还能分散过度依赖银行体系融资带来的风险。
当前和今后一个时期，要进一步丰富融资方式、融资工具，多渠道扩大直接融资比重。我们大力发展直接融资，一方面是大力发展股票市场，另一方面要大力发展债券市场，这对提高全社会资金使用效率有极大的促进作用，对服务国民经济发展也非常重要。
记者：世界经济再平衡，这是目前整个国际经济和政治领域都在关注和实践的问题，在这个过程中，你认为最大的困难是什么？在这一过程中，对中国经济的转型你有何思考？
尚福林：世界经济不平衡是当前世界经济的主要问题，其深层次原因是全球消费结构、生产结构的失衡，直接表现在全球贸易结构的失衡上。面对国际金融危机，世界经济面临再平衡、再调整，这将是一个缓慢的过程。当务之急在于，要基于各国不同的经济发展周期，加大不同国家和地区的宏观经济政策协调力度，更好地适应全球经济一体化的趋势，防止贸易保护主义抬头，促进资本和资源在全球范围内有序流动，推动世界经济稳步复苏。
经历过这次国际金融危机，世界经济金融格局正在进行广泛而深刻的调整，反思这场影响深远的国际金融危机，一个重要的共识是推动世界经济全面均衡和可持续增长，必须转变原有的经济发展模式，加快经济结构调整和金融改革。
从我国经济看，这次金融危机也反映出我们的经济发展方式不能适应新的形势。十七届五中全会对加快转变经济发展方式、调整经济结构做出了重要部署。要以加快转变经济发展方式为主线，准确把握世界经济结构进入调整期的特点，努力培育我国发展新优势；准确把握创新和产业转型处于孕育期的特点，努力抢占未来发展战略制高点；改善国内的消费结构，加快经济转型和结构调整。同时进一步深化改革，以更优化的经济结构和健康的金融体系，促进我国经济和全球经济的稳定发展。
具体在金融方面，在增加居民消费需求、发展战略性新兴产业、促进低碳经济等众多领域，银行、证券、保险都需要取长补短、互为补充，共同发挥好金融对转变经济发展方式的服务和保障作用。
从资本市场看，要不断发挥资本市场服务经济社会的功能，大力提升资本市场在促进资本形成、优化资源配置、鼓励创新创业和增强发展活力等方面的重要作用，要不断健全市场配置资源基础性作用的体制机制，努力推动资本市场稳定健康发展，为保持我国经济长期平稳较快发展做出更大贡献。
记者：针对当前中国的资本市场，如果再进一步完善进一步发展的话，你觉得最紧迫、最关键的问题是什么？
尚福林：从当前看，最重要的是培育市场机制。20年来，我国资本市场改革发展取得了巨大的成就，但在充分发挥市场机制作用，强化市场约束和资本约束方面都仍然需要做大量的工作，必须有意识地在推进制度改革中着重培育市场机制。
如在发行体制改革中，要在制度设计上促进市场主体“归位尽责”，发挥市场的价格发现功能；对上市公司要完善信息披露制度，增强公司透明度，强化市场对公司的约束机制；要提高投资者对市场风险的认知程度，通过投资者“用脚投票”发挥资本的约束机制。■
本刊记者王培成、王晓璐 实习记者 刁晓琼对此文亦有贡献
Thursday, December 16, 2010
U.S. May Phase In Curbs on Speculative Trading
U.S. May Phase In Curbs on Speculative Trading
By SARAH N. LYNCH
WASHINGTON—U.S. regulators indicated they may phase in new curbs on speculative trading as they gather more data on the swaps market, in a move that could appease House Republicans who fear the agency may be moving too fast.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Gary Gensler discussed the agency's tentative plans during a hearing at the House Agriculture panel Wednesday, just one day before the CFTC is formally slated to vote on a proposal to tackle excessive speculation in commodity futures, options and over-the-counter derivatives markets.
More
Earlier: CFTC Unveils Derivatives Rules
.Speculators are traders who bet on price movements in the market without having an underlying business interest in the commodity. They were blamed by critics in 2008 for driving oil prices to record highs, although futures exchanges and even CFTC economists haven't found evidence that speculators caused the price volatility.
Mr. Gensler told the panel Wednesday he recognizes the CFTC doesn't yet have enough data on the swaps market, an area the agency didn't have authority to regulate until the July enactment of the Dodd-Frank Act. Until the agency can implement the law and collect more market data, he said, it's possible the agency will tackle speculative-trading limits over time instead of all at once.
"Staff is examining whether certain elements of the rule for which the commission has substantial data can proceed on a more expedited time frame, while leaving those aspects of the rule that depend upon additional data for later implementation," Mr. Gensler said.
The Dodd-Frank Act requires the CFTC to place limits on the number of commodity futures, options and swap contracts that any one speculative trader can hold at a given time to prevent one company from controlling too much of the market. The law requires the CFTC to place limits on commodity contracts traded across all derivatives markets that play a role in setting market prices. The limits would apply in the aggregate for all months and across all trading venues, as well as for each individual month and the so-called spot month, or the month when a contract expires. The limits would only be imposed on futures and swaps tied to commodities of which the supply is finite, such as crude oil, wheat or silver.
The Dodd-Frank Act sets much earlier deadlines for the CFTC to finalize its position-limit proposal than for most other provisions in the law to regulate the over-the-counter market. Some Democrats and industry groups representing sectors that use commodity contracts to hedge their risks have raised concerns in recent weeks that the CFTC may miss its deadline.
Mr. Gensler's comments Wednesday appeared to try to balance concerns by Democrats as well as Republicans, who are poised to take control of the House in January and expressed fears Wednesday that the deadlines in the law aren't realistic.
"I stand willing to consider an easing of statutory deadlines to ensure rules don't end up further distorting markets and costing American jobs," said the presumptive House Agriculture Chairman Frank Lucas (R., Okla.). Mr. Lucas pledged a "long series of intense oversight hearings" in the coming months.
Senator-elect Rep. Jerry Moran (R., Kansas) said Wednesday he doesn't understand how the CFTC can set limits until new swap-data warehouses created in Dodd-Frank are up and running. Without additional market data, "the commission could neither have enough information to adequately determine the appropriate position limit or have the information necessary to enforce position limits," he said.
Mr. Gensler said that spot-month limits would be easier to implement first, and could be set based on a percentage of deliverable supply.
Limits for a single month and for all months are trickier, he said, because they are generally set as a function of the overall size of the market. Those could become effective "when sufficient data becomes available," he said.
In the meantime, the CFTC has a proposal pending that would let it collect swap-position data from large traders. Mr. Gensler said this plan would help the CFTC collect the data it needs until formal swap data repositories are up and running.
Write to Sarah N. Lynch at Sarah.Lynch@dowjones.com
By SARAH N. LYNCH
WASHINGTON—U.S. regulators indicated they may phase in new curbs on speculative trading as they gather more data on the swaps market, in a move that could appease House Republicans who fear the agency may be moving too fast.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Gary Gensler discussed the agency's tentative plans during a hearing at the House Agriculture panel Wednesday, just one day before the CFTC is formally slated to vote on a proposal to tackle excessive speculation in commodity futures, options and over-the-counter derivatives markets.
More
Earlier: CFTC Unveils Derivatives Rules
.Speculators are traders who bet on price movements in the market without having an underlying business interest in the commodity. They were blamed by critics in 2008 for driving oil prices to record highs, although futures exchanges and even CFTC economists haven't found evidence that speculators caused the price volatility.
Mr. Gensler told the panel Wednesday he recognizes the CFTC doesn't yet have enough data on the swaps market, an area the agency didn't have authority to regulate until the July enactment of the Dodd-Frank Act. Until the agency can implement the law and collect more market data, he said, it's possible the agency will tackle speculative-trading limits over time instead of all at once.
"Staff is examining whether certain elements of the rule for which the commission has substantial data can proceed on a more expedited time frame, while leaving those aspects of the rule that depend upon additional data for later implementation," Mr. Gensler said.
The Dodd-Frank Act requires the CFTC to place limits on the number of commodity futures, options and swap contracts that any one speculative trader can hold at a given time to prevent one company from controlling too much of the market. The law requires the CFTC to place limits on commodity contracts traded across all derivatives markets that play a role in setting market prices. The limits would apply in the aggregate for all months and across all trading venues, as well as for each individual month and the so-called spot month, or the month when a contract expires. The limits would only be imposed on futures and swaps tied to commodities of which the supply is finite, such as crude oil, wheat or silver.
The Dodd-Frank Act sets much earlier deadlines for the CFTC to finalize its position-limit proposal than for most other provisions in the law to regulate the over-the-counter market. Some Democrats and industry groups representing sectors that use commodity contracts to hedge their risks have raised concerns in recent weeks that the CFTC may miss its deadline.
Mr. Gensler's comments Wednesday appeared to try to balance concerns by Democrats as well as Republicans, who are poised to take control of the House in January and expressed fears Wednesday that the deadlines in the law aren't realistic.
"I stand willing to consider an easing of statutory deadlines to ensure rules don't end up further distorting markets and costing American jobs," said the presumptive House Agriculture Chairman Frank Lucas (R., Okla.). Mr. Lucas pledged a "long series of intense oversight hearings" in the coming months.
Senator-elect Rep. Jerry Moran (R., Kansas) said Wednesday he doesn't understand how the CFTC can set limits until new swap-data warehouses created in Dodd-Frank are up and running. Without additional market data, "the commission could neither have enough information to adequately determine the appropriate position limit or have the information necessary to enforce position limits," he said.
Mr. Gensler said that spot-month limits would be easier to implement first, and could be set based on a percentage of deliverable supply.
Limits for a single month and for all months are trickier, he said, because they are generally set as a function of the overall size of the market. Those could become effective "when sufficient data becomes available," he said.
In the meantime, the CFTC has a proposal pending that would let it collect swap-position data from large traders. Mr. Gensler said this plan would help the CFTC collect the data it needs until formal swap data repositories are up and running.
Write to Sarah N. Lynch at Sarah.Lynch@dowjones.com
'Vultures' Give U.S. Good Mark
'Vultures' Give U.S. Good Mark
By MATT WIRZ
The credit crisis made Uncle Sam the largest distressed-debt investor in financial history, as the government piled into a $388 billion patchwork portfolio of U.S. banks, insurers, car companies, and even a fast-food franchise.
Granted, the Bush and Obama administrations were more focused on stabilizing the financial system when they began their purchases in Sept. 2008. But based on the unvarnished principles of "vulture" investing—buying into broken companies that other investors avoid—how has the government fared as it begins unwinding its big positions?
Thirteen distressed specialists polled by The Wall Street Journal give the U.S. a begrudging "B" in Vulture Investing 101, with room to earn a "B+" depending on results of upcoming stock sales in General Motors Co. and American International Group Inc.
.Most of those interviewed praise the government for getting so much of its money back in less than two years.
"It's remarkable that they've made any kind of a decent return given that they didn't have any time to do real due diligence," said Wilbur Ross, founder of WL Ross & Co. and a distressed investor in global, steel, textile and automotive manufacturers. WL Ross participated in the recapitalization of the banking system through co-investments with the FDIC and through the $40 billion Public-Private Investment Plan, and its automotive portfolio company supplies GM.
But others pointed out that the government could have extracted greater profits and restructured bailed-out companies more aggressively.
The Congressional Budget Office estimated in November that the U.S. will lose $25 billion on the $388 billion disbursed through the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP. That's down from the $50 billion hit Treasury projected in October and the $105 billion it forecast earlier in the year.
Like all investors, distressed-fund managers evaluate themselves first and foremost on the returns they make relative to the risks they take. They also pride themselves on how well they restructure operations, how quickly they can exit their positions and how effectively they bargain—or bully—at the negotiating table, all of which contribute to profits.
Treasury reported one of its strongest investment performances yet in early December with a total profit of $12 billion, or 27%, on the $45 billion it sank into Citigroup beginning in October 2008. That stacks up quite well against the 28% that the Hedge Fund Research Distressed/Restructuring index returned over the same period.
On the other side of the ledger are Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, which have yet to return principal on government loans and remain mired beneath underwater residential mortgages. The bailout of the two mortgage lenders has already cost taxpayers $134 billion on top of TARP.
Meanwhile, 123 banks missed November dividend payments on their TARP loans, according to SNL Financial. Those banks collectively have received $3.3 billion in TARP aid, SNL said.
That leaves the remaining asset and stock sales by AIG and GM as the main outstanding measures of profitability. Treasury has said it expects to generate positive returns on both, but it currently faces a paper loss of $9 billion, or 18%, on its $50 billion investment in GM. After committing $120 billion in aid to AIG, the government hopes to eventually turn a profit by selling off the insurer in parts.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and his advisers earned high marks for the pace they set in restructurings. "If you ask the question, 'did they get in there and establish order quickly?' I think the answer is yes," said one fund manager who invested in the debt of some of the bailed-out companies.
The speed of the workouts—GM exited bankruptcy in 40 days, a record for a company that size—owes a lot to the unparalleled political clout the government brought to bear in the restructurings it initiated. Many restructuring experts argue that Treasury trampled on creditor rights in the bankruptcies of Chrysler and GM just as it swept aside preconceptions about limits to its authority in aiding AIG, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.
Some investors still resent the Obama administration's write-off of loans and bonds in the auto restructurings, while at the same time protecting union benefits and bank creditors. But they grudgingly respect the way the government played its cards and forced opponents to fold, something veteran vultures spend years building reputations for.
"I think the government played it very well," said New York University business professor Edward Altman. In the case of GM, creditor treatment may have been unfair, but that gave the company the best shot to survive, and that gave confidence to the market, he said.
The game theory from Treasury's perspective was simple. It could afford to impose haircuts on lenders to the auto manufacturers because GM and Chrysler didn't depend on the owners of its debt for day-to-day funding, as did many banks.
In the case of financial institutions, the government focused on co-opting creditors rather than strong-arming them. "Banks depend on the confidence of their creditors for their day-to-day operations," said Jim Millstein, Treasury's chief restructuring officer. "You can't seek to impair creditors of a financial institution unless you're prepared to liquidate."
By holding back from a wholesale nationalization of the banking system and introducing a credible stress test, the U.S. triggered the virtuous cycle that buoyed capital markets for the past 18 months. It also avoided significant restructuring of the core cause of the crisis, the overleveraged real-estate market.
That bears directly on the one category where distressed-investing pros graded the government most harshly: companies' operational improvements. Many toxic mortgages remain on banks' balance sheets, and the bulk of those now on Uncle Sam's books remain unaddressed given the foreclosure and refinancing morass.
The government has taken much of the prospective mortgage losses from the private banks onto its own balance sheet by funding the lion's share of refinancings since 2008 through Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Authority.
"If you take a bad mortgage and have the FHA refinance it so it comes off one of these bank's books, and then the government takes a loss there, it's really hard to see how that's a success," said Greenlight Capital President David Einhorn.
By MATT WIRZ
The credit crisis made Uncle Sam the largest distressed-debt investor in financial history, as the government piled into a $388 billion patchwork portfolio of U.S. banks, insurers, car companies, and even a fast-food franchise.
Granted, the Bush and Obama administrations were more focused on stabilizing the financial system when they began their purchases in Sept. 2008. But based on the unvarnished principles of "vulture" investing—buying into broken companies that other investors avoid—how has the government fared as it begins unwinding its big positions?
Thirteen distressed specialists polled by The Wall Street Journal give the U.S. a begrudging "B" in Vulture Investing 101, with room to earn a "B+" depending on results of upcoming stock sales in General Motors Co. and American International Group Inc.
.Most of those interviewed praise the government for getting so much of its money back in less than two years.
"It's remarkable that they've made any kind of a decent return given that they didn't have any time to do real due diligence," said Wilbur Ross, founder of WL Ross & Co. and a distressed investor in global, steel, textile and automotive manufacturers. WL Ross participated in the recapitalization of the banking system through co-investments with the FDIC and through the $40 billion Public-Private Investment Plan, and its automotive portfolio company supplies GM.
But others pointed out that the government could have extracted greater profits and restructured bailed-out companies more aggressively.
The Congressional Budget Office estimated in November that the U.S. will lose $25 billion on the $388 billion disbursed through the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP. That's down from the $50 billion hit Treasury projected in October and the $105 billion it forecast earlier in the year.
Like all investors, distressed-fund managers evaluate themselves first and foremost on the returns they make relative to the risks they take. They also pride themselves on how well they restructure operations, how quickly they can exit their positions and how effectively they bargain—or bully—at the negotiating table, all of which contribute to profits.
Treasury reported one of its strongest investment performances yet in early December with a total profit of $12 billion, or 27%, on the $45 billion it sank into Citigroup beginning in October 2008. That stacks up quite well against the 28% that the Hedge Fund Research Distressed/Restructuring index returned over the same period.
On the other side of the ledger are Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, which have yet to return principal on government loans and remain mired beneath underwater residential mortgages. The bailout of the two mortgage lenders has already cost taxpayers $134 billion on top of TARP.
Meanwhile, 123 banks missed November dividend payments on their TARP loans, according to SNL Financial. Those banks collectively have received $3.3 billion in TARP aid, SNL said.
That leaves the remaining asset and stock sales by AIG and GM as the main outstanding measures of profitability. Treasury has said it expects to generate positive returns on both, but it currently faces a paper loss of $9 billion, or 18%, on its $50 billion investment in GM. After committing $120 billion in aid to AIG, the government hopes to eventually turn a profit by selling off the insurer in parts.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and his advisers earned high marks for the pace they set in restructurings. "If you ask the question, 'did they get in there and establish order quickly?' I think the answer is yes," said one fund manager who invested in the debt of some of the bailed-out companies.
The speed of the workouts—GM exited bankruptcy in 40 days, a record for a company that size—owes a lot to the unparalleled political clout the government brought to bear in the restructurings it initiated. Many restructuring experts argue that Treasury trampled on creditor rights in the bankruptcies of Chrysler and GM just as it swept aside preconceptions about limits to its authority in aiding AIG, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.
Some investors still resent the Obama administration's write-off of loans and bonds in the auto restructurings, while at the same time protecting union benefits and bank creditors. But they grudgingly respect the way the government played its cards and forced opponents to fold, something veteran vultures spend years building reputations for.
"I think the government played it very well," said New York University business professor Edward Altman. In the case of GM, creditor treatment may have been unfair, but that gave the company the best shot to survive, and that gave confidence to the market, he said.
The game theory from Treasury's perspective was simple. It could afford to impose haircuts on lenders to the auto manufacturers because GM and Chrysler didn't depend on the owners of its debt for day-to-day funding, as did many banks.
In the case of financial institutions, the government focused on co-opting creditors rather than strong-arming them. "Banks depend on the confidence of their creditors for their day-to-day operations," said Jim Millstein, Treasury's chief restructuring officer. "You can't seek to impair creditors of a financial institution unless you're prepared to liquidate."
By holding back from a wholesale nationalization of the banking system and introducing a credible stress test, the U.S. triggered the virtuous cycle that buoyed capital markets for the past 18 months. It also avoided significant restructuring of the core cause of the crisis, the overleveraged real-estate market.
That bears directly on the one category where distressed-investing pros graded the government most harshly: companies' operational improvements. Many toxic mortgages remain on banks' balance sheets, and the bulk of those now on Uncle Sam's books remain unaddressed given the foreclosure and refinancing morass.
The government has taken much of the prospective mortgage losses from the private banks onto its own balance sheet by funding the lion's share of refinancings since 2008 through Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Authority.
"If you take a bad mortgage and have the FHA refinance it so it comes off one of these bank's books, and then the government takes a loss there, it's really hard to see how that's a success," said Greenlight Capital President David Einhorn.
基金排名战蓄势待发 可关注哪些股
基金排名战蓄势待发 可关注哪些股
在看好12月后半月指数走好的前提下，昨日本版推出了《布局年末行情系列报道》上篇：《农业高铁先起步新兴产业再接力》。今日本版从估值的角度，分析银行、券商、保险等低估值蓝筹股的机会；而年末基金为争夺净值排名也可能会拉升其重仓或独门蓝筹股。今日这些板块有可能受港股等外围股市拖累出现震荡，但分析人士认为下跌正是关注低估值蓝筹个股的机会。
低估值蓝筹渐企稳
昨日沪指下跌15.66点，但是低估值的蓝筹股普遍表现抗跌。券商股、煤炭股逆市上涨，银行股则涨跌各半。
板块一：银行
昨日A股没跟随港股大跌，银行股相对强势的表现是重要支撑。昨日银行股板块涨跌近半，小盘银行股光大、宁波、南京、兴业银行等上涨，而工农中建交等大行均下行。国信证券邱志承认为银行板块当前估值折价过大是其股价的最大支撑。目前的估值已经很低，2011年平均PB为1.4倍，部分银行2012年的PB水平已经低于1倍，估值已难有进一步下降空间，未来跑赢大市的概率较大。另外，银行股的再融资接近尾声，市场也可以喘一口气了。
关注个股：
天相投资研究报告认为，银行股的估值将得到修复，维持对银行股增持的投资评级。如果从规模扩张迅速以及息差回升带来业绩增长较快的角度看，建议关注华夏银行和宁波银行；从2010年业务结构调整有力，明年业绩有望保持较快增长的角度，建议关注浦发银行和兴业银行。
板块二：保险
近期表现强势的保险股昨日全线下跌，板块平均下跌1.81%，领跌的中国平安下跌2.43%。光大证券肖超虎认为，保险股虽然短线波动，但后市机会明显。目前，保险业正处于保险渗透率和盈利周期的双重底部。保费将继续保持良好的增长势头，未来3-5年复合增速在20%左右；未来10年在15%左右。需求强劲、产品升级以及渠道创新将成为驱动保费高成长的关键因素。另外，肖超虎认为已经到来的加息周期不仅有利于寿险增量投资收益，而且有利于存量净资产增加。
关注个股：
光大证券研究报告认为，现在保险股业绩和估值均处于底部位置，明年业绩提升同时带来估值修复，保险股具有上升空间，建议超配保险股。个股选择上，首选成长性高的中国平安；其次是业绩弹性大的中国太保。对于风险偏好较低的投资者，推荐中国人寿。
板块三：券商
在大盘蓝筹股中，券商股昨日表现最强，16只交易的券商股中，有12只上涨，山西证券以3.71%的涨幅位列首位，下跌的个股中跌幅最大的广发证券微跌0.31%。招商证券认为，从业绩角度看，明年经纪业务增长预期明确。A股市场总市值和流通市值的增长趋势明显，市值的提升必将提升成交额的增长预期。另外，融资融券业务提升券商长期收入增长预期。按照融资融券交易日均换手率3%计算，融资融券日均余额规模5-10年内有望达到7000至8000亿元的水平，这将使得融资融券业务收入占2011年行业总收入的20%左右。
关注个股：
天相投资策略报告认为，券商2011年业绩实现同比增长的可能性很大。行业的不利因素逐步消退，行业景气度将不断上升，维持对证券行业的"增持"投资评级。个股选择：华泰证券、宏源证券、海通证券、辽宁成大。
板块四：煤炭
随着席卷全国的寒潮降临，煤炭板块昨日再次"发光发热"，四川圣达强势涨停，靖远煤电、兰花科创等8只个股上涨超过2%，煤炭板块无一个股下跌。申银万国认为，国内旺季需求持续，煤价仍将高位运行，极端天气将支撑煤价重回涨势。国际煤价方面，由于澳洲、印尼暴雨洪水，俄罗斯等欧洲国家暴雪天气使得煤炭需求急升，国际煤价本周上涨6%反超国内，对国内价格形成支撑。虽然当前板块2010年21倍市盈率、2011年17倍市盈率，估值优势并不明显，但在资金明显流入该板块的情况下，可以进行短线操作。
关注个股：
申银万国建议关注潞安环能，公司明年收购集团480万吨成熟产能，2000万吨整合产能未来三年逐步释放，喷吹煤11年预计提价8%。冀中能源，明年集团将注入1000多万吨产能，内蒙资源收购提升公司成长空间。兖州煤业和平庄能源也可关注。 (李龙俊 成都日报)
在看好12月后半月指数走好的前提下，昨日本版推出了《布局年末行情系列报道》上篇：《农业高铁先起步新兴产业再接力》。今日本版从估值的角度，分析银行、券商、保险等低估值蓝筹股的机会；而年末基金为争夺净值排名也可能会拉升其重仓或独门蓝筹股。今日这些板块有可能受港股等外围股市拖累出现震荡，但分析人士认为下跌正是关注低估值蓝筹个股的机会。
低估值蓝筹渐企稳
昨日沪指下跌15.66点，但是低估值的蓝筹股普遍表现抗跌。券商股、煤炭股逆市上涨，银行股则涨跌各半。
板块一：银行
昨日A股没跟随港股大跌，银行股相对强势的表现是重要支撑。昨日银行股板块涨跌近半，小盘银行股光大、宁波、南京、兴业银行等上涨，而工农中建交等大行均下行。国信证券邱志承认为银行板块当前估值折价过大是其股价的最大支撑。目前的估值已经很低，2011年平均PB为1.4倍，部分银行2012年的PB水平已经低于1倍，估值已难有进一步下降空间，未来跑赢大市的概率较大。另外，银行股的再融资接近尾声，市场也可以喘一口气了。
关注个股：
天相投资研究报告认为，银行股的估值将得到修复，维持对银行股增持的投资评级。如果从规模扩张迅速以及息差回升带来业绩增长较快的角度看，建议关注华夏银行和宁波银行；从2010年业务结构调整有力，明年业绩有望保持较快增长的角度，建议关注浦发银行和兴业银行。
板块二：保险
近期表现强势的保险股昨日全线下跌，板块平均下跌1.81%，领跌的中国平安下跌2.43%。光大证券肖超虎认为，保险股虽然短线波动，但后市机会明显。目前，保险业正处于保险渗透率和盈利周期的双重底部。保费将继续保持良好的增长势头，未来3-5年复合增速在20%左右；未来10年在15%左右。需求强劲、产品升级以及渠道创新将成为驱动保费高成长的关键因素。另外，肖超虎认为已经到来的加息周期不仅有利于寿险增量投资收益，而且有利于存量净资产增加。
关注个股：
光大证券研究报告认为，现在保险股业绩和估值均处于底部位置，明年业绩提升同时带来估值修复，保险股具有上升空间，建议超配保险股。个股选择上，首选成长性高的中国平安；其次是业绩弹性大的中国太保。对于风险偏好较低的投资者，推荐中国人寿。
板块三：券商
在大盘蓝筹股中，券商股昨日表现最强，16只交易的券商股中，有12只上涨，山西证券以3.71%的涨幅位列首位，下跌的个股中跌幅最大的广发证券微跌0.31%。招商证券认为，从业绩角度看，明年经纪业务增长预期明确。A股市场总市值和流通市值的增长趋势明显，市值的提升必将提升成交额的增长预期。另外，融资融券业务提升券商长期收入增长预期。按照融资融券交易日均换手率3%计算，融资融券日均余额规模5-10年内有望达到7000至8000亿元的水平，这将使得融资融券业务收入占2011年行业总收入的20%左右。
关注个股：
天相投资策略报告认为，券商2011年业绩实现同比增长的可能性很大。行业的不利因素逐步消退，行业景气度将不断上升，维持对证券行业的"增持"投资评级。个股选择：华泰证券、宏源证券、海通证券、辽宁成大。
板块四：煤炭
随着席卷全国的寒潮降临，煤炭板块昨日再次"发光发热"，四川圣达强势涨停，靖远煤电、兰花科创等8只个股上涨超过2%，煤炭板块无一个股下跌。申银万国认为，国内旺季需求持续，煤价仍将高位运行，极端天气将支撑煤价重回涨势。国际煤价方面，由于澳洲、印尼暴雨洪水，俄罗斯等欧洲国家暴雪天气使得煤炭需求急升，国际煤价本周上涨6%反超国内，对国内价格形成支撑。虽然当前板块2010年21倍市盈率、2011年17倍市盈率，估值优势并不明显，但在资金明显流入该板块的情况下，可以进行短线操作。
关注个股：
申银万国建议关注潞安环能，公司明年收购集团480万吨成熟产能，2000万吨整合产能未来三年逐步释放，喷吹煤11年预计提价8%。冀中能源，明年集团将注入1000多万吨产能，内蒙资源收购提升公司成长空间。兖州煤业和平庄能源也可关注。 (李龙俊 成都日报)
沪基金业再陷"老鼠仓"传闻 监管部门已经开始调查
沪基金业再陷"老鼠仓"传闻 监管部门已经开始调查
前光大保德信投资总监许春茂、曾任交银施罗德投资总监的李旭利涉嫌老鼠仓事件被查一事尚无定论，眼下，另一家沪籍基金经理郑拓又涉嫌卷入"老鼠仓"。昨天，市场传出监管部门已开始对郑拓进行调查的消息。但截至记者发稿，无论是郑拓本人还是其目前任职的公司上海好望角股权投资管理公司都没有对此消息作出任何回应。
昨天，有消息称，在公募基金任职期间，曾经的五星级基金经理、上海好望角股权投资管理公司创办人郑拓涉嫌老鼠仓已在数月前被监管部门调查。
记者昨天就此传言致电上海好望角股权投资管理公司，好望角方面对郑拓目前是否还在公司上班的问题不置可否，但明确表示公司暂不接受任何媒体的采访。与此同时，郑拓的手机始终处于无人接听状态。
公开资料显示，郑拓毕业于美国芝加哥大学商学院，具备较深厚的经济学造诣和长达15年的投资管理经验，包括国内和国际市场的投资经验。郑拓先后担任过交银稳健、海富通股票、海富通风格优势、海富通精选、海富通强化回报的基金经理。2007年7月，郑拓接替李旭利，出任交银稳健基金的基金经理。在其管理交银稳健基金期间，该基金取得并保持了晨星(MorningStarRating)两年期和三年期的五星级基金评价，并被全球著名商业杂志《福布斯》评为2009中国基金排行榜中的十大最佳股票型基金之一。2009年7月底，郑拓义无反顾地投身私募，离开交银施罗德基金公司，创办好望角公司。郑拓的离职风波当时颇受业界关注。好望角网站上显示，上海好望角股权投资管理公司成立于2009年，是一家专注于大中华区资本市场、为投资者提供股权投资管理和一般投资管理的专业机构。
捕鼠风暴升级
■专家观点
去年，"捕鼠"风潮席卷深圳基金业，多名基金经理被查出涉嫌老鼠仓。今年，上海基金业步入了"多事之秋"。眼下，就几名重量级人物先后传出被调查的消息，银河证券基金研究中心研究总监王群航表示，"老鼠仓"是严重危害市场的不法行为，证监会应该严肃处理此类事件，这有利于促进基金业的健康发展。
对于基金业的发展现状，王群航认为，目前基金业仍处于一个良好的发展状态之中，市场与机制都在不断地建立和健全。至于目前在基金市场中是否还隐藏了一些不法现象，在未被检查出来之前都不好断言。他认为，相继爆出多起"老鼠仓"的传闻，并不是基金业"老鼠仓"变多，而是表明我们的监管层对基金内幕交易的打击力度加大了。 (敖晓波 张娟 京华时报)
前光大保德信投资总监许春茂、曾任交银施罗德投资总监的李旭利涉嫌老鼠仓事件被查一事尚无定论，眼下，另一家沪籍基金经理郑拓又涉嫌卷入"老鼠仓"。昨天，市场传出监管部门已开始对郑拓进行调查的消息。但截至记者发稿，无论是郑拓本人还是其目前任职的公司上海好望角股权投资管理公司都没有对此消息作出任何回应。
昨天，有消息称，在公募基金任职期间，曾经的五星级基金经理、上海好望角股权投资管理公司创办人郑拓涉嫌老鼠仓已在数月前被监管部门调查。
记者昨天就此传言致电上海好望角股权投资管理公司，好望角方面对郑拓目前是否还在公司上班的问题不置可否，但明确表示公司暂不接受任何媒体的采访。与此同时，郑拓的手机始终处于无人接听状态。
公开资料显示，郑拓毕业于美国芝加哥大学商学院，具备较深厚的经济学造诣和长达15年的投资管理经验，包括国内和国际市场的投资经验。郑拓先后担任过交银稳健、海富通股票、海富通风格优势、海富通精选、海富通强化回报的基金经理。2007年7月，郑拓接替李旭利，出任交银稳健基金的基金经理。在其管理交银稳健基金期间，该基金取得并保持了晨星(MorningStarRating)两年期和三年期的五星级基金评价，并被全球著名商业杂志《福布斯》评为2009中国基金排行榜中的十大最佳股票型基金之一。2009年7月底，郑拓义无反顾地投身私募，离开交银施罗德基金公司，创办好望角公司。郑拓的离职风波当时颇受业界关注。好望角网站上显示，上海好望角股权投资管理公司成立于2009年，是一家专注于大中华区资本市场、为投资者提供股权投资管理和一般投资管理的专业机构。
捕鼠风暴升级
■专家观点
去年，"捕鼠"风潮席卷深圳基金业，多名基金经理被查出涉嫌老鼠仓。今年，上海基金业步入了"多事之秋"。眼下，就几名重量级人物先后传出被调查的消息，银河证券基金研究中心研究总监王群航表示，"老鼠仓"是严重危害市场的不法行为，证监会应该严肃处理此类事件，这有利于促进基金业的健康发展。
对于基金业的发展现状，王群航认为，目前基金业仍处于一个良好的发展状态之中，市场与机制都在不断地建立和健全。至于目前在基金市场中是否还隐藏了一些不法现象，在未被检查出来之前都不好断言。他认为，相继爆出多起"老鼠仓"的传闻，并不是基金业"老鼠仓"变多，而是表明我们的监管层对基金内幕交易的打击力度加大了。 (敖晓波 张娟 京华时报)
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Beacon Capital Closes on Loan Modification
Beacon Capital Closes on Loan Modification
By ELIOT BROWN
Boston-based Beacon Capital Partners has closed on a modification of a troubled $2.7 billion loan, which was one of the largest commercial-real-estate loans to ever be securitized, a company official confirmed Tuesday.
Beacon used the loan, which was carved up into commercial-mortgage-backed securities, to buy a 20-building office portfolio in Seattle and Washington, D.C., in 2007 near the top of the market.
CoStar Group
Earlier this year, Beacon reworked debt on Seattle's Columbia Center.
."We believe this is a good outcome for the bondholders and the equity," Beacon's president, Fred Seigel, said of the recent restructuring in a brief interview Tuesday.
The deal marks Beacon's second major debt restructuring this year. It follows Beacon's reworking of a $380 million securitized loan on a separate property in Seattle, the 76-story Columbia Center, for which Beacon received a three-year extension, with options for two more years.
While full details about the modifications weren't available, the restructurings appear to allow Beacon to escape the risk of CMBS investors foreclosing on its giant holdings, which hit trouble when higher rents failed to materialize amid the economic crisis.
The 20-building, 9.9-million-square-foot portfolio was acquired from the Blackstone Group in 2007. It had been owned by Equity Office Properties, a public company that Blackstone acquired that year.
The loan to finance the purchase was so large—second in the CMBS market only to the $3 billion first mortgage for the 2006 purchase of Stuyvesant Town and Peter Cooper Village in New York City—that it was spread out over seven batches of securities.
Failing to meet bullish assumptions made in 2007, the income on the properties was barely covering the mortgage payments, with a slim debt service coverage ratio of 1.08% at the end of last year, according to research firm Trepp.
Beacon sought to decrease those payments, stretching out the loan while cutting its interest rate.
An agreement reached on Dec. 3 calls for a five-year extension to 2017 on the interest-only loan, with the interest rate getting cut from 5.797% to 3%, according to ratings agency Standard and Poor's, which was informed about the deal. In addition, Beacon must put in $200 million in new collateral, according to S&P.
Such workouts have become customary in the CMBS market. Special servicers who oversee the multitude of troubled loans are beginning to process and return to normal many of the problematic loans made between 2005 and 2007. But more CMBS loans are running into trouble every week, bringing the delinquency rate to near record highs.
Investors in the $2.7 billion Beacon workout are likely to benefit differently from the modification, based on the risk level of the bonds they hold. Given that the extension chops the loan's overall interest rate, those holding the last-to-be-paid bonds are likely to see revenues dry up, as the newly lowered interest payments typically wouldn't cascade all the way to the lowest bondholders.
Write to Eliot Brown at eliot.brown@wsj.com
By ELIOT BROWN
Boston-based Beacon Capital Partners has closed on a modification of a troubled $2.7 billion loan, which was one of the largest commercial-real-estate loans to ever be securitized, a company official confirmed Tuesday.
Beacon used the loan, which was carved up into commercial-mortgage-backed securities, to buy a 20-building office portfolio in Seattle and Washington, D.C., in 2007 near the top of the market.
CoStar Group
Earlier this year, Beacon reworked debt on Seattle's Columbia Center.
."We believe this is a good outcome for the bondholders and the equity," Beacon's president, Fred Seigel, said of the recent restructuring in a brief interview Tuesday.
The deal marks Beacon's second major debt restructuring this year. It follows Beacon's reworking of a $380 million securitized loan on a separate property in Seattle, the 76-story Columbia Center, for which Beacon received a three-year extension, with options for two more years.
While full details about the modifications weren't available, the restructurings appear to allow Beacon to escape the risk of CMBS investors foreclosing on its giant holdings, which hit trouble when higher rents failed to materialize amid the economic crisis.
The 20-building, 9.9-million-square-foot portfolio was acquired from the Blackstone Group in 2007. It had been owned by Equity Office Properties, a public company that Blackstone acquired that year.
The loan to finance the purchase was so large—second in the CMBS market only to the $3 billion first mortgage for the 2006 purchase of Stuyvesant Town and Peter Cooper Village in New York City—that it was spread out over seven batches of securities.
Failing to meet bullish assumptions made in 2007, the income on the properties was barely covering the mortgage payments, with a slim debt service coverage ratio of 1.08% at the end of last year, according to research firm Trepp.
Beacon sought to decrease those payments, stretching out the loan while cutting its interest rate.
An agreement reached on Dec. 3 calls for a five-year extension to 2017 on the interest-only loan, with the interest rate getting cut from 5.797% to 3%, according to ratings agency Standard and Poor's, which was informed about the deal. In addition, Beacon must put in $200 million in new collateral, according to S&P.
Such workouts have become customary in the CMBS market. Special servicers who oversee the multitude of troubled loans are beginning to process and return to normal many of the problematic loans made between 2005 and 2007. But more CMBS loans are running into trouble every week, bringing the delinquency rate to near record highs.
Investors in the $2.7 billion Beacon workout are likely to benefit differently from the modification, based on the risk level of the bonds they hold. Given that the extension chops the loan's overall interest rate, those holding the last-to-be-paid bonds are likely to see revenues dry up, as the newly lowered interest payments typically wouldn't cascade all the way to the lowest bondholders.
Write to Eliot Brown at eliot.brown@wsj.com
Stocks Near 2-Year Highs; Bonds Suffer
Stocks Near 2-Year Highs; Bonds Suffer
By MARK GONGLOFF
Stocks crept to a two-year high on Tuesday on the back of positive economic news and a fresh commitment by the Federal Reserve to keep pumping cash into the markets.
Investors are dealing with a busy schedule of economic indicators and news, while preparing for the Federal Open Market Committee policy announcement at 2:15 pm. Stocks got an early lift on strong retail sales data, but Best Buy swooned on a poor earnings report. Donna Kardos Yesalavich, Kathleen Madigan and Michael Casey report.
.The rally was clouded, however, by another spike in government-bond yields, sending rates on 10-year Treasury notes to a seven-month high, and another brutal day for municipal bonds, whose rates rose to the highest levels since March 2009.
Though interest rates on Treasurys are rising partly because of better prospects for economic growth, they also could pose a challenge to housing and other sectors of the economy.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 47.98, or 0.4%, to end the day at 11476.54, the blue-chip measure's highest close since Sep. 8, 2008, a week before the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy triggered a global financial crisis.
The Nasdaq Composite index rose 2.81, or 0.1%, to 2627.72. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index rose 1.13 points, or less than 0.1%, to 1241.59, its highest close since Sep. 19, 2008.
Stocks barely registered the results of the latest Fed policy meeting Tuesday afternoon, the results of which surprised roughly no one. Policy makers kept overnight interest rates unchanged and pledged again to buy $600 billion in Treasury debt through next June in an effort to support risk-taking and economic growth.
But this easy-money spigot has already helped drive investors into stocks and other risky assets, contributing heavily to the Dow's 18.5% rally since early July. And few investors are willing to bet the cash-fueled rally will end any time soon.
"Equity guys love this. The more stimulus the better for them," said Joe Saluzzi, co-founder of Themis Trading in Chatham, N.J. "It's still this momentum-fueled craziness, this performance-chasing type of rally."
The risk-taking appetite was whetted early Tuesday with a batch of improved economic numbers. November retail-sales data from the Census Bureau topped forecasts, and small-business sentiment improved to its highest level in three years, according to the National Federation of Independent Business.
Also, corporate treasurers turned noticeably more optimistic in early December, according to the latest survey of chief financial officers by Duke University and CFO Magazine.
"There are still obviously risks and uncertainties out there, but this is the best survey we've had since before the recession," said Duke finance professor John Graham, director of the survey.
But the good economic news has contributed to an ongoing crunch in the Treasury market. The 10-year Treasury note ended Tuesday yielding 3.457%, its highest closing yield since May 17. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.
The 10-year note yield has surged more than a full percentage point since early October, driving mortgage rates higher and snuffing out a refinancing boomlet that had put billions of dollars in cash in consumers' pockets.
The 10-year yield has returned to its levels before the market started pricing in the latest Fed bond-buying program, noted David Ader, head of government-bond strategy at CRT Capital. "Is this the level of rates that makes the Fed nervous?" he asked in a note. "Well, it was in the second quarter of 2010."
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Data: Overview | Treasurys | Forex | Crude
.Rates jumped in the hour after the Fed's decision, for little apparent reason, possibly contributing to a late-day pause in the stock rally. Selling has led to more selling in recent weeks as traders rush to cash in their still-profitable Treasury investments before year-end.
"This selloff has become a vicious, as opposed to a virtuous, cycle," said Russ Certo, co-head of rate trading at Gleacher & Co., a boutique investment bank and bond dealer.
Commodities were mixed on the day. Nymex crude-oil futures fell 33 cents to $88.28 a barrel. Comex gold edged up $6.30 to $1403.60 per ounce.
Meantime, muni bond prices fell sharply for the second day Tuesday, as investors worried about the impact of the end of the Build America Bond borrowing program.
The yield on a closely watched index of high-grade, tax-exempt 30-year muni bonds rose to 4.81%, its highest level since March 2009, according to initial indications from Municipal Market Data.
Another dark spot for the market was Best Buy, which tumbled $6.18, or 15%, to $35.52, after the company issued a dour report for the quarter ended Nov. 27, which included Black Friday. Best Buy's earnings came in well below analysts' estimates as revenue unexpectedly fell. The consumer electronics retailer also cut its earnings view for the year.
Bank stocks also fell, including Dow components J.P. Morgan Chase, down 0.72, or 1.73%, to 40.79, and Bank of America, off 0.14, or 1.12%, to 12.40.
The Dow was mainly led higher by technology giant IBM, up 1.54, or nearly 1.1%, to 145.82.
Among other stocks, Amgen rose 2.65, or 4.9%, to 56.76. The biotechnology company said a study of its key bone drug Xgeva showed it helped prostate-cancer patients live longer without the disease spreading to their bones.
HCP edged up 44 cents, or 1.4%, to 32.96, after the real-estate investment trust said it will buy all of the real-estate assets of privately owned nursing-home operator HCR ManorCare for $6.1 billion in a cash-and-stock deal.
Sanderson Farms rose 2.33, or 5.5%, to 40.15. The poultry producer's fiscal fourth-quarter earnings more than doubled as average market prices rose 3.2% and margins improved.
C.R. Bard advanced 3.52, or 4.1%, to 89.57. The medical-device maker said it is targeting double-digit earnings growth next year amid a boost from a stock buyback plan, and announced restructuring measures that will include job cuts.
Williams Partners LP slipped 2.42, or 5%, to 46.50. The natural-gas company said its planned sale of common units, which was raised in size to at least 8 million units, priced at an estimated $47.55 each, a 2.8% discount to Monday's close.
—Matt Phillips,
Romy Varghese
and Donna Kardos Yesalavich contributed to this article.
Write to Donna Kardos Yesalavich at donna.yesalavich@dowjones.com
By MARK GONGLOFF
Stocks crept to a two-year high on Tuesday on the back of positive economic news and a fresh commitment by the Federal Reserve to keep pumping cash into the markets.
Investors are dealing with a busy schedule of economic indicators and news, while preparing for the Federal Open Market Committee policy announcement at 2:15 pm. Stocks got an early lift on strong retail sales data, but Best Buy swooned on a poor earnings report. Donna Kardos Yesalavich, Kathleen Madigan and Michael Casey report.
.The rally was clouded, however, by another spike in government-bond yields, sending rates on 10-year Treasury notes to a seven-month high, and another brutal day for municipal bonds, whose rates rose to the highest levels since March 2009.
Though interest rates on Treasurys are rising partly because of better prospects for economic growth, they also could pose a challenge to housing and other sectors of the economy.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 47.98, or 0.4%, to end the day at 11476.54, the blue-chip measure's highest close since Sep. 8, 2008, a week before the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy triggered a global financial crisis.
The Nasdaq Composite index rose 2.81, or 0.1%, to 2627.72. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index rose 1.13 points, or less than 0.1%, to 1241.59, its highest close since Sep. 19, 2008.
Stocks barely registered the results of the latest Fed policy meeting Tuesday afternoon, the results of which surprised roughly no one. Policy makers kept overnight interest rates unchanged and pledged again to buy $600 billion in Treasury debt through next June in an effort to support risk-taking and economic growth.
But this easy-money spigot has already helped drive investors into stocks and other risky assets, contributing heavily to the Dow's 18.5% rally since early July. And few investors are willing to bet the cash-fueled rally will end any time soon.
"Equity guys love this. The more stimulus the better for them," said Joe Saluzzi, co-founder of Themis Trading in Chatham, N.J. "It's still this momentum-fueled craziness, this performance-chasing type of rally."
The risk-taking appetite was whetted early Tuesday with a batch of improved economic numbers. November retail-sales data from the Census Bureau topped forecasts, and small-business sentiment improved to its highest level in three years, according to the National Federation of Independent Business.
Also, corporate treasurers turned noticeably more optimistic in early December, according to the latest survey of chief financial officers by Duke University and CFO Magazine.
"There are still obviously risks and uncertainties out there, but this is the best survey we've had since before the recession," said Duke finance professor John Graham, director of the survey.
But the good economic news has contributed to an ongoing crunch in the Treasury market. The 10-year Treasury note ended Tuesday yielding 3.457%, its highest closing yield since May 17. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.
The 10-year note yield has surged more than a full percentage point since early October, driving mortgage rates higher and snuffing out a refinancing boomlet that had put billions of dollars in cash in consumers' pockets.
The 10-year yield has returned to its levels before the market started pricing in the latest Fed bond-buying program, noted David Ader, head of government-bond strategy at CRT Capital. "Is this the level of rates that makes the Fed nervous?" he asked in a note. "Well, it was in the second quarter of 2010."
View Full Image
AFP/Getty Images
.Market Data Center
Most Actives | Gainers | Losers
New Highs and Lows | Money Flows
Intraday Futures | Currencies
Data: Overview | Treasurys | Forex | Crude
.Rates jumped in the hour after the Fed's decision, for little apparent reason, possibly contributing to a late-day pause in the stock rally. Selling has led to more selling in recent weeks as traders rush to cash in their still-profitable Treasury investments before year-end.
"This selloff has become a vicious, as opposed to a virtuous, cycle," said Russ Certo, co-head of rate trading at Gleacher & Co., a boutique investment bank and bond dealer.
Commodities were mixed on the day. Nymex crude-oil futures fell 33 cents to $88.28 a barrel. Comex gold edged up $6.30 to $1403.60 per ounce.
Meantime, muni bond prices fell sharply for the second day Tuesday, as investors worried about the impact of the end of the Build America Bond borrowing program.
The yield on a closely watched index of high-grade, tax-exempt 30-year muni bonds rose to 4.81%, its highest level since March 2009, according to initial indications from Municipal Market Data.
Another dark spot for the market was Best Buy, which tumbled $6.18, or 15%, to $35.52, after the company issued a dour report for the quarter ended Nov. 27, which included Black Friday. Best Buy's earnings came in well below analysts' estimates as revenue unexpectedly fell. The consumer electronics retailer also cut its earnings view for the year.
Bank stocks also fell, including Dow components J.P. Morgan Chase, down 0.72, or 1.73%, to 40.79, and Bank of America, off 0.14, or 1.12%, to 12.40.
The Dow was mainly led higher by technology giant IBM, up 1.54, or nearly 1.1%, to 145.82.
Among other stocks, Amgen rose 2.65, or 4.9%, to 56.76. The biotechnology company said a study of its key bone drug Xgeva showed it helped prostate-cancer patients live longer without the disease spreading to their bones.
HCP edged up 44 cents, or 1.4%, to 32.96, after the real-estate investment trust said it will buy all of the real-estate assets of privately owned nursing-home operator HCR ManorCare for $6.1 billion in a cash-and-stock deal.
Sanderson Farms rose 2.33, or 5.5%, to 40.15. The poultry producer's fiscal fourth-quarter earnings more than doubled as average market prices rose 3.2% and margins improved.
C.R. Bard advanced 3.52, or 4.1%, to 89.57. The medical-device maker said it is targeting double-digit earnings growth next year amid a boost from a stock buyback plan, and announced restructuring measures that will include job cuts.
Williams Partners LP slipped 2.42, or 5%, to 46.50. The natural-gas company said its planned sale of common units, which was raised in size to at least 8 million units, priced at an estimated $47.55 each, a 2.8% discount to Monday's close.
—Matt Phillips,
Romy Varghese
and Donna Kardos Yesalavich contributed to this article.
Write to Donna Kardos Yesalavich at donna.yesalavich@dowjones.com
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
中国不存钱 世界怎么办？
他
们说，20世纪90年代末是不正常的年代。金钱流入新兴市场，而后突然流出，在那个时候，这种突变看起来是个巨大的危机。
他们说，21世纪初也是混乱年代。先是科技股泡沫破裂。随后，在20世纪90年代末饱受摧残的新兴市场政府开始大量储存美元，造成美联储主席贝南克（Ben Bernanke）所说的“全球储蓄过剩”。伴随着发达国家的宽松货币政策和毫无远见的监管政策，这些资本在美国和其他国家引发了一场举债热潮，导致房市出现泡沫。
他们还说，过去几年也是一团糟。信贷和房市热潮随着百年一遇的泡沫破裂而结束。政府匆忙伸出援手，各国央行极力压低短期利率。投资者为避险而纷纷买入美国国债，在美国已大量举债的情况下导致长期利率走低，而现在美联储正阻止长期利率上升。
接下来会发生什么？美国经济是一定会复苏的，到了复苏的那天会怎样？可能会出现的结果是：全球储蓄过剩逆转，廉价资本不再充足。
麦肯锡咨询公司智库麦肯锡全球研究所（McKinsey Globe Institute）预计，未来几年内，新兴市场的投资会增加，尤其是中国和印度，同时这些国家的储蓄开始减少。麦肯锡在最新报告《告别廉价资本》（Farewell to Cheap Capital）中说，企业、银行、消费者、投资者和政府都将不得不适应一个新世界，这个世界中的资本更昂贵、不再那么充足，这个世界超过一半的储蓄和投资都发生在新兴市场。
整体来说，世界经济的投资不能超过储蓄。以前的农民将收获的玉米分成两部分，一部分用来吃和卖（消费），一部分储存起来（储蓄）用作明年的种子（投资）。全球经济产量也是同样道理。纵观历史，25年来增加的储蓄大部分都来自中国和其他更穷的国家，流向更富的国家，尤其是美国。
节俭的中国工人和农民把钱放在银行。银行把钱借给政府，政府再借给美国财政部和抵押贷款巨头房利美（Fannie Mae）和房地美（Freddie Mac）。最终，这些钱被用来支持美国次贷危机前的廉价抵押贷款和次贷危机后奥巴马政府的巨额财政刺激计划。2008年，每4美元全球储蓄中就有1美元来自中国政府、公司和家庭。
麦肯锡表示，未来几年这都将消退，因中国和印度加快了投资步伐。麦肯锡说，中国计划在国内170个大城市建设新的地铁系统、公路和高铁。
170 个城市！为了与城市人口增长保持同步，中国需要每两年增加一个规模相当于纽约市的居住和商业面积；印度则是每年增加一个芝加哥的面积。汇丰(HSBC)驻香港的亚太区高级经济学家范力民(Frederic Neumann)预计，由于许多亚洲工厂的生产接近最高产能，企业资本支出可能将猛增。基于对全球经济增长的预估，麦肯锡预计2010年底前全球投资与产出之比将接近25%，这是上世纪70年代初以来未曾见过的高位。金融危机前全球投资与产出之比略高于22%。
但在中国，如果历史和中国五年规划可以当作指南的话，消费者尤其可能减少储蓄。仍在节省度日的日本人也可能减少储蓄，因为越来越多的退休人员在使用存款，尽管在人口逐渐减少的日本缺少有前景的投资，意味着日本将持续把存款投入到其他国家和地区。
那么存款将从何而来？如果情况一切顺利，多数存款将来自美国人，在过去几年的磨练下，美国人可能将储蓄更多。美国联邦政府或许将削减赤字（喜欢造词的经济学家称之为“动用储蓄”（dissaving）），不过仍将在医疗保健和退休金上有更多的支出。麦肯锡说，如果英美家庭仍像目前一样，全球储蓄率将增长一个百分点，部分抵消中国人储蓄的减少，因中国消费者支出了更多收入。
但只是部分抵消。全球储蓄过剩可能轻易变为全球储蓄缺乏，这可能意味着利率大幅上升。
麦肯锡估计，如果经通胀调整的长期利率回到40年均值，那么将高出1.5个百分点，较目前约3%的10年期美国国债收益率大幅上升。如果新兴市场较美国更加速进行基建和其他投资，同时其他富裕国家增加他们的整体储蓄，那么利率将进一步上升，而这将遏制全球经济增长。
David Wessel
们说，20世纪90年代末是不正常的年代。金钱流入新兴市场，而后突然流出，在那个时候，这种突变看起来是个巨大的危机。
他们说，21世纪初也是混乱年代。先是科技股泡沫破裂。随后，在20世纪90年代末饱受摧残的新兴市场政府开始大量储存美元，造成美联储主席贝南克（Ben Bernanke）所说的“全球储蓄过剩”。伴随着发达国家的宽松货币政策和毫无远见的监管政策，这些资本在美国和其他国家引发了一场举债热潮，导致房市出现泡沫。
他们还说，过去几年也是一团糟。信贷和房市热潮随着百年一遇的泡沫破裂而结束。政府匆忙伸出援手，各国央行极力压低短期利率。投资者为避险而纷纷买入美国国债，在美国已大量举债的情况下导致长期利率走低，而现在美联储正阻止长期利率上升。
接下来会发生什么？美国经济是一定会复苏的，到了复苏的那天会怎样？可能会出现的结果是：全球储蓄过剩逆转，廉价资本不再充足。
麦肯锡咨询公司智库麦肯锡全球研究所（McKinsey Globe Institute）预计，未来几年内，新兴市场的投资会增加，尤其是中国和印度，同时这些国家的储蓄开始减少。麦肯锡在最新报告《告别廉价资本》（Farewell to Cheap Capital）中说，企业、银行、消费者、投资者和政府都将不得不适应一个新世界，这个世界中的资本更昂贵、不再那么充足，这个世界超过一半的储蓄和投资都发生在新兴市场。
整体来说，世界经济的投资不能超过储蓄。以前的农民将收获的玉米分成两部分，一部分用来吃和卖（消费），一部分储存起来（储蓄）用作明年的种子（投资）。全球经济产量也是同样道理。纵观历史，25年来增加的储蓄大部分都来自中国和其他更穷的国家，流向更富的国家，尤其是美国。
节俭的中国工人和农民把钱放在银行。银行把钱借给政府，政府再借给美国财政部和抵押贷款巨头房利美（Fannie Mae）和房地美（Freddie Mac）。最终，这些钱被用来支持美国次贷危机前的廉价抵押贷款和次贷危机后奥巴马政府的巨额财政刺激计划。2008年，每4美元全球储蓄中就有1美元来自中国政府、公司和家庭。
麦肯锡表示，未来几年这都将消退，因中国和印度加快了投资步伐。麦肯锡说，中国计划在国内170个大城市建设新的地铁系统、公路和高铁。
170 个城市！为了与城市人口增长保持同步，中国需要每两年增加一个规模相当于纽约市的居住和商业面积；印度则是每年增加一个芝加哥的面积。汇丰(HSBC)驻香港的亚太区高级经济学家范力民(Frederic Neumann)预计，由于许多亚洲工厂的生产接近最高产能，企业资本支出可能将猛增。基于对全球经济增长的预估，麦肯锡预计2010年底前全球投资与产出之比将接近25%，这是上世纪70年代初以来未曾见过的高位。金融危机前全球投资与产出之比略高于22%。
但在中国，如果历史和中国五年规划可以当作指南的话，消费者尤其可能减少储蓄。仍在节省度日的日本人也可能减少储蓄，因为越来越多的退休人员在使用存款，尽管在人口逐渐减少的日本缺少有前景的投资，意味着日本将持续把存款投入到其他国家和地区。
那么存款将从何而来？如果情况一切顺利，多数存款将来自美国人，在过去几年的磨练下，美国人可能将储蓄更多。美国联邦政府或许将削减赤字（喜欢造词的经济学家称之为“动用储蓄”（dissaving）），不过仍将在医疗保健和退休金上有更多的支出。麦肯锡说，如果英美家庭仍像目前一样，全球储蓄率将增长一个百分点，部分抵消中国人储蓄的减少，因中国消费者支出了更多收入。
但只是部分抵消。全球储蓄过剩可能轻易变为全球储蓄缺乏，这可能意味着利率大幅上升。
麦肯锡估计，如果经通胀调整的长期利率回到40年均值，那么将高出1.5个百分点，较目前约3%的10年期美国国债收益率大幅上升。如果新兴市场较美国更加速进行基建和其他投资，同时其他富裕国家增加他们的整体储蓄，那么利率将进一步上升，而这将遏制全球经济增长。
David Wessel
Offshore Trading in Yuan Takes Off
Offshore Trading in Yuan Takes Off
By SHAI OSTER in Hong Kong, DINNY MCMAHON in Beijing and TOM LAURICELLA in New York
China's currency, pent up inside the country's borders for decades, is emerging as a hot property in global foreign-exchange markets, just months after Beijing allowed the yuan to be bought and sold outside the mainland for the first time.
Daily trading in the yuan has grown from zero to $400 million in the past few months, as the currency of the world's second-biggest economy begins to flow around the globe. Global trading in yuan allows businesses to buy and sell the currency to finance trade, investment and borrowing. It's an important step for the yuan to play a role in global financial markets.
The yuan makes up a sliver of the $4 trillion daily trading in currency markets and is dwarfed by trading in the dollar, yen and euro. But traders are surprised at how quickly it is gaining critical mass.
.The value of the yuan remains tightly controlled by China, so its value won't rise and fall to the same extent as the dollar or euro, in spite of the new trading. Even so, foreign-exchange traders who are embracing the currency see demand for yuan rising sharply. Bankers in New York, London and Tokyo are rushing to set up new trading systems and back offices to trade in yuan.
"This is the beginning of a new era," said Norman Chan, head of Hong Kong's central bank. "This is a step moving to full convertibility of the yuan, and is a major change of the international financial landscape."
The yuan makes up a sliver of the $4 trillion daily trading in currency markets and is dwarfed by trading in the dollar, yen and euro. But traders are surprised at how quickly it is gaining critical mass. Chinese companies are placing yuan into accounts in Hong Kong, where the offshore trading is allowed, and could have as much as 300 billion yuan ($45 billion) there by the end of the year.
China Winning Currency War Access thousands of business sources not available on the free web. Learn More The yuan, which closed official trading Monday at 6.6670 per dollar, down slightly on the day, has risen 2.4% against the greenback since mid-June, when China loosened the currency's peg against the dollar and allowed the yuan greater flexibility to rise or fall in value.
The continued growth in yuan trading isn't a foregone conclusion. China could reverse itself and slow the growth of the market. China's leaders fear that if too much currency builds up too quickly overseas, they could lose control of inflation and interest rates, said Xiang Songzuo, deputy director of the Center for International Monetary Research at Remin University of China.
.Nevertheless, the establishment of offshore trading in yuan is "game changing," said David Mann, head of research in the Americas for Standard Chartered Bank. "It's arrived much faster than anyone expected."
In July, Chinese regulators opened the door by letting banks and individuals freely trade yuan outside of mainland China for the first time. Creating that infrastructure is a necessary step in allowing the yuan to float freely, and have markets set its value. For now, China will keep its tight rein on the value of the yuan even with the parallel market in Hong Kong.
On Dec. 6, Chinese regulators broadened the scope of the program, increasing the number of exporters that can use yuan to trade their goods from a few hundred to nearly 70,000.
Some predict it will only be a few years before 20% to 30% of China's $2.3 trillion of imports could be conducted in yuan rather than U.S. dollars. Today less than 1% is done in yuan, according to Standard Chartered.
Mr. Mann says trading in yuan could match that of the Japanese yen before long as the third most-actively traded currency behind the dollar and the euro.
Until now, investors who wanted to speculate on the yuan, or companies that needed to hedge against its fluctuations, could only do so indirectly, through contracts that tracked the currency's moves. Those contracts were useless for businesses that needed actual yuan to buy or sell goods.
To buy and sell yuan offshore, traders need an account in Hong Kong. Chinese companies can move money to offshore yuan accounts only for business purposes, such as exports or imports. And restrictions remain on repatriating that money.
But as long as that money is in an offshore yuan account, the holder is free to trade with it in any way.
Already, banks such as Citigroup Inc. and HSBC are offering investors yuan-priced options and interest-rate derivatives. Mutual funds dedicated to yuan-priced investments have already been created.
The move has opened the doors to wider issuance of yuan-denominated bonds and other investments. McDonald's Corp. and Caterpillar Inc. recently became the first U.S. non-financial corporations to sell debt priced in yuan, in what is being nicknamed the "Dim Sum" bond market.
A big driver of the increase in yuan holdings offshore is emerging economies, major trading destinations for China. HSBC forecasts that at least half, or nearly $2 trillion worth, of China's cross-border trade with emerging markets could be settled in yuan annually within three to five years.
For example, countries rich in natural resources that export commodities to China could get paid in yuan and then use the yuan to buy finished goods and services from China—cutting out the cost and hassle of converting to dollars.
Read More
View From Hong Kong: Walking a Fine Line
U.S. Lawmakers Seek to Link Yuan Measure, Tax Bill
.The moves come against a broader background of growing Chinese concern over the country's reliance on the dollar.
Long term, the offshore yuan market could decrease demand for the dollar and lower its value. That's in part because Chinese companies doing business with counterparts in other countries wouldn't need U.S. dollars to conduct that business as they do today.
In Hong Kong, where speculation is an obsession, individual investors quickly piled in to yuan, even though they are limited to converting only 20,000 yuan a day. On display by bank teller windows are interest rates for Hong Kong, U.S and now Chinese deposits.
For the yuan to become fully convertible, China would have to allow it to be exchangeable for other currencies at any time, something that's not possible under the new regulations.
The keen level of interest in the offshore yuan trading was evident last week in midtown Manhattan at the headquarters of HSBC. Some 80 traders from 20 banks came to hear a presentation organized by ICAP PLC on offshore yuan trading featuring Esmond Lee, an official from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. Previous sessions in Hong Kong and London had been similarly packed.
"What makes it exciting is that this is a move by China in a direction that many have been waiting for," said Edward Brown, an executive vice president at ICAP, the world's largest broker of currency trades among banks.
By SHAI OSTER in Hong Kong, DINNY MCMAHON in Beijing and TOM LAURICELLA in New York
China's currency, pent up inside the country's borders for decades, is emerging as a hot property in global foreign-exchange markets, just months after Beijing allowed the yuan to be bought and sold outside the mainland for the first time.
Daily trading in the yuan has grown from zero to $400 million in the past few months, as the currency of the world's second-biggest economy begins to flow around the globe. Global trading in yuan allows businesses to buy and sell the currency to finance trade, investment and borrowing. It's an important step for the yuan to play a role in global financial markets.
The yuan makes up a sliver of the $4 trillion daily trading in currency markets and is dwarfed by trading in the dollar, yen and euro. But traders are surprised at how quickly it is gaining critical mass.
.The value of the yuan remains tightly controlled by China, so its value won't rise and fall to the same extent as the dollar or euro, in spite of the new trading. Even so, foreign-exchange traders who are embracing the currency see demand for yuan rising sharply. Bankers in New York, London and Tokyo are rushing to set up new trading systems and back offices to trade in yuan.
"This is the beginning of a new era," said Norman Chan, head of Hong Kong's central bank. "This is a step moving to full convertibility of the yuan, and is a major change of the international financial landscape."
The yuan makes up a sliver of the $4 trillion daily trading in currency markets and is dwarfed by trading in the dollar, yen and euro. But traders are surprised at how quickly it is gaining critical mass. Chinese companies are placing yuan into accounts in Hong Kong, where the offshore trading is allowed, and could have as much as 300 billion yuan ($45 billion) there by the end of the year.
China Winning Currency War Access thousands of business sources not available on the free web. Learn More The yuan, which closed official trading Monday at 6.6670 per dollar, down slightly on the day, has risen 2.4% against the greenback since mid-June, when China loosened the currency's peg against the dollar and allowed the yuan greater flexibility to rise or fall in value.
The continued growth in yuan trading isn't a foregone conclusion. China could reverse itself and slow the growth of the market. China's leaders fear that if too much currency builds up too quickly overseas, they could lose control of inflation and interest rates, said Xiang Songzuo, deputy director of the Center for International Monetary Research at Remin University of China.
.Nevertheless, the establishment of offshore trading in yuan is "game changing," said David Mann, head of research in the Americas for Standard Chartered Bank. "It's arrived much faster than anyone expected."
In July, Chinese regulators opened the door by letting banks and individuals freely trade yuan outside of mainland China for the first time. Creating that infrastructure is a necessary step in allowing the yuan to float freely, and have markets set its value. For now, China will keep its tight rein on the value of the yuan even with the parallel market in Hong Kong.
On Dec. 6, Chinese regulators broadened the scope of the program, increasing the number of exporters that can use yuan to trade their goods from a few hundred to nearly 70,000.
Some predict it will only be a few years before 20% to 30% of China's $2.3 trillion of imports could be conducted in yuan rather than U.S. dollars. Today less than 1% is done in yuan, according to Standard Chartered.
Mr. Mann says trading in yuan could match that of the Japanese yen before long as the third most-actively traded currency behind the dollar and the euro.
Until now, investors who wanted to speculate on the yuan, or companies that needed to hedge against its fluctuations, could only do so indirectly, through contracts that tracked the currency's moves. Those contracts were useless for businesses that needed actual yuan to buy or sell goods.
To buy and sell yuan offshore, traders need an account in Hong Kong. Chinese companies can move money to offshore yuan accounts only for business purposes, such as exports or imports. And restrictions remain on repatriating that money.
But as long as that money is in an offshore yuan account, the holder is free to trade with it in any way.
Already, banks such as Citigroup Inc. and HSBC are offering investors yuan-priced options and interest-rate derivatives. Mutual funds dedicated to yuan-priced investments have already been created.
The move has opened the doors to wider issuance of yuan-denominated bonds and other investments. McDonald's Corp. and Caterpillar Inc. recently became the first U.S. non-financial corporations to sell debt priced in yuan, in what is being nicknamed the "Dim Sum" bond market.
A big driver of the increase in yuan holdings offshore is emerging economies, major trading destinations for China. HSBC forecasts that at least half, or nearly $2 trillion worth, of China's cross-border trade with emerging markets could be settled in yuan annually within three to five years.
For example, countries rich in natural resources that export commodities to China could get paid in yuan and then use the yuan to buy finished goods and services from China—cutting out the cost and hassle of converting to dollars.
Read More
View From Hong Kong: Walking a Fine Line
U.S. Lawmakers Seek to Link Yuan Measure, Tax Bill
.The moves come against a broader background of growing Chinese concern over the country's reliance on the dollar.
Long term, the offshore yuan market could decrease demand for the dollar and lower its value. That's in part because Chinese companies doing business with counterparts in other countries wouldn't need U.S. dollars to conduct that business as they do today.
In Hong Kong, where speculation is an obsession, individual investors quickly piled in to yuan, even though they are limited to converting only 20,000 yuan a day. On display by bank teller windows are interest rates for Hong Kong, U.S and now Chinese deposits.
For the yuan to become fully convertible, China would have to allow it to be exchangeable for other currencies at any time, something that's not possible under the new regulations.
The keen level of interest in the offshore yuan trading was evident last week in midtown Manhattan at the headquarters of HSBC. Some 80 traders from 20 banks came to hear a presentation organized by ICAP PLC on offshore yuan trading featuring Esmond Lee, an official from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. Previous sessions in Hong Kong and London had been similarly packed.
"What makes it exciting is that this is a move by China in a direction that many have been waiting for," said Edward Brown, an executive vice president at ICAP, the world's largest broker of currency trades among banks.
Sunday, December 12, 2010
The dangers of a rising China
The dangers of a rising China
China and America are bound to be rivals, but they do not have to be antagonists
Dec 2nd 2010 | from PRINT EDITION
In many ways China has made efforts to try to reassure an anxious world. It has repeatedly promised that it means only peace. It has spent freely on aid and investment, settled border disputes with its neighbours and rolled up its sleeves in UN peacekeeping forces and international organisations. When North Korea shelled a South Korean island last month China did at least try to create a framework to rein in its neighbour.
But reasonable China sometimes gives way to aggressive China. In March, when the North sank a South Korean warship, killing 46 sailors, China failed to issue any condemnation. A few months later it fell out with Japan over some Chinese fishermen, arrested for ramming Japanese coastguard vessels around some disputed islands—and then it locked up some Japanese businessmen and withheld exports of rare earths vital for Japanese industry. And it has forcefully reasserted its claim to the Spratly and Paracel Islands and to sovereignty over virtually the entire South China Sea.
As the Chinese leaders’ history lesson will have told them, the relationship that determines whether the world is at peace or at war is that between pairs of great powers. Sometimes, as with Britain and America, it goes well. Sometimes, as between Britain and Germany, it does not.
So far, things have gone remarkably well between America and China. While China has devoted itself to economic growth, American security has focused on Islamic terrorism and war in Iraq and Afghanistan. But the two mistrust each other. China sees America as a waning power that will eventually seek to block its own rise. And America worries about how Chinese nationalism, fuelled by rediscovered economic and military might, will express itself (see our special report).
The Peloponnesian pessimists
Pessimists believe China and America are condemned to be rivals. The countries’ visions of the good society are very different. And, as China’s power grows, so will its determination to get its way and to do things in the world. America, by contrast, will inevitably balk at surrendering its pre-eminence.
They are probably right about Chinese ambitions. Yet China need not be an enemy. Unlike the Soviet Union, it is no longer in the business of exporting its ideology. Unlike the 19th-century European powers, it is not looking to amass new colonies. And China and America have a lot in common. Both benefit from globalisation and from open markets where they buy raw materials and sell their exports. Both want a broadly stable world in which nuclear weapons do not spread and rogue states, like Iran and North Korea, have little scope to cause mayhem. Both would lose incalculably from war.
The best way to turn China into an opponent is to treat it as one. The danger is that spats and rows will sour relations between China and America, just as the friendship between Germany and Britain crumbled in the decades before the first world war. It is already happening in defence. Feeling threatened by American naval power, China has been modernising its missiles, submarines, radar, cyber-warfare and anti-satellite weapons. Now America feels on its mettle. Recent Pentagon assessments of China’s military strength warn of the threat to Taiwan and American bases and to aircraft-carriers near the Chinese coast. The US Navy has begun to deploy more forces in the Pacific. Feeling threatened anew, China may respond. Even if neither America nor China intended harm—if they wanted only to ensure their own security—each could nevertheless see the other as a growing threat.
Some would say the solution is for America to turn its back on military rivalry. But a weaker America would lead to chronic insecurity in East Asia and thus threaten the peaceful conduct of trade and commerce on which America’s prosperity depends. America therefore needs to be strong enough to guarantee the seas and protect Taiwan from Chinese attack.
How to take down the Great Wall
History shows that superpowers can coexist peacefully when the rising power believes it can rise unhindered and the incumbent power believes that the way it runs the world is not fundamentally threatened. So a military build-up needs to be accompanied by a build-up of trust.
There are lots of ways to build trust in Asia. One would be to help ensure that disputes and misunderstandings do not get out of hand. China should thus be more open about its military doctrine—about its nuclear posture, its aircraft-carriers and missile programme. Likewise, America and China need rules for disputes including North Korea (see article), Taiwan, space and cyber-warfare. And Asia as a whole needs agreements to help prevent every collision at sea from becoming a trial of strength.
America and China should try to work multilaterally. Instead of today’s confusion of competing venues, Asia needs a single regional security forum, such as the East Asia Summit, where it can do business. Asian countries could also collaborate more in confidence-boosting non-traditional security, such as health, environmental protection, anti-piracy and counter-terrorism, where threats by their nature cross borders.
If America wants to bind China into the rules-based liberal order it promotes, it needs to stick to the rules itself. Every time America breaks them—by, for instance, protectionism—it feeds China’s suspicions and undermines the very order it seeks.
China and America have one advantage over history’s great-power pairings: they saw the 20th century go disastrously wrong. It is up to them to ensure that the 21st is different.
from PRINT EDITION | Leaders
Thursday, December 9, 2010
银监会否认叫停房产信托 将逐笔排查房地产信托风险
银监会否认叫停房产信托 将逐笔排查房地产信托风险
昨日(12月8日)，银监会召开了“信托公司房地产业务风险提示”新闻通气会，相关负责人证实银监会于近日发布了 《关于信托公司房地产信托业务风险提示的通知 (银监办发343号)》(以下“《通知》”)。
该文件要求信托公司对房地产信托业务进行自查，自查结束后银监局再进行核查；与此同时，该负责人否认银监会曾叫停中融信托等4家信托公司的房地产信托业务。
自查+核查
《通知》要求各信托公司立即进行业务合规性风险自查，逐笔分析业务的合规性和风险状况，包括但不限于信托公司发放贷款的房地产开发项目是否满足“四证”齐全、开发商或其控股股东是否具备二级资质、项目资本金比例是否达到国家最低要求等条件；第一还款来源充足性、可靠性评价；抵质押等担保措施情况及评价；项目到期偿付能力评价及风险处置预案等内容。
除了各信托公司自查外，《通知》还要求各银监局加强对辖内信托公司房地产信托业务的合规监管和风险监控，并在信托公司自查基础上，对房地产信托业务进行核查，对以受让债权等方式变相提供贷款的情况要按照实质重于形式的原则予以甄别。
根据银监会数据，今年以来房地产信托业务上升相对较快，而这种增长主要体现在第三季度。某信托公司前高层曾对《每日经济新闻》记者表示，7～9月房地产信托单月都超过200亿元，10月也有178亿元，这种情况很容易引起监管机构的注意。
上述银监会负责人表示，三季度房地产信托增速比较快，所以监管机构认为有必要提醒相关公司做好风险防范。该负责人还指出，银监会对于房地产信托业务的监管是持续的，而上述《通知》只是对相关机构进行风险提示。
重提禁止性融资方式
值得注意的是，《通知》再次强调了四三二原则，即获得信托融资的房地产商除了“四证齐全”外(《国有土地使用证》、《建设用地规划许可证》、《建设工程规划许可证》和《建设工程开工许可证》)，自有资金必须达到30%，同时还必须具有二级资质。
除了四三二原则外，银监会还重申了各种禁止性条件：包括禁止向开发商发放流动资金贷款、禁止进行商品房预售回购、禁止信托公司以信托资金发放土地储备贷款，以及将投资附回购形式的变相融资行为视同贷款管理等一系列监管政策。
某信托公司内部人士对 《每日经济新闻》记者表示，银监会先前曾就房地产信托业务发布了一系列相关文件，上面的规定并非首次出现，在《通知》中进行规定只是监管层想再一次提醒信托公司要严格执行。
否认叫停房地产信托业务
银监会还否认曾叫停中信、平安、中融信托等4家信托公司房地产信托业务，上述负责人表示，今年以来，银监会从没有暂停过任何一家信托公司的房地产信托业务。
他指出，上述四家信托公司可能在第三季度末举行的宏观经济形势分析会上，对房地产信托业务风险进行了关注，觉察到房地产信托业务以及整个房地产业务风险，并自动地把房地产信托业务缓下来或者停下来，而银监会并没有下文或口头要求信托公司暂停业务。
2010年8月24日，银监会曾发布《信托公司净资本管理办法》。该负责人昨日表示，银监会将对房地产信托业务赋予较大风险系数，以控制相关业务风险。
银监会提示信托公司：警惕房地产市场风险
银监会网站昨日发布《关于信托公司房地产信托业务风险提示的通知》，要求各信托公司逐笔分析房地产信托业务的合规性和风险状况，合理把握规模扩展。
据不完全统计，截至9月末，房地产信托类业务大概为3770亿元，在整个银行业金融机构的占比为10%多一点。
“三季度房地产信托业务的增速比较猛，所以银监会下发了《关于信托公司房地产信托业务风险提示的通知》(下称《通知》)，其实并没有新的规定，但对业务过快增长潜在的风险做了提示”，银监会非银行金融机构监管部信托公司非现场监管处处长战伟宏昨日表示。
今年8月初银监会正式下发《关于规范银信理财合作业务有关事项的通知》，银信合作被正式叫停。此后，房地产信托类业务开始激增。
《通知》要求，各信托公司需立即进行业务合规性风险自查，逐笔分析业务的合规性和风险状况，包括但不限于信托公司发放贷款的房地产开发项目是否满足“四证”齐全、开发商或其控股股东是否具备二级资质、项目资本金比例是否达到国家最低要求等条件；第一还款来源充足性、可靠性评价；抵质押等担保措施情况及评价；项目到期偿付能力评价及风险处置预案等内容。
据媒体报道，上月末，已有中融信托、平安信托等多家房地产信托公司接到银监会的通知，暂停房地产信托业务。
对此，战伟宏昨日表示，银监会对信托公司和房地产公司的合作要求，一直比较严格，但这类业务是合法的业务，银监会并未下文强制要求某些公司暂停该项业务。
战宏伟介绍，在三季度末例行的宏观经济形势分析会上，银监会主席刘明康对房地产信托业务做了风险提示，个别公司就把这块业务放缓或者暂停了，这是公司自己的行为。
银信合作业务占比低于30%可重开
战伟宏同时介绍，今年八月初叫停银信合作时，银信合作类理财产品在信托公司整体业务占比已超过70%，且大都是融资类业务，银监会的要求是该比例下降到30%以下，银信合作可以重新启动。
他表示，该类型很多产品期限均为一年，相信到2011年，很多存量的业务就到期了，到时候这个比例自然就降下来了。 宗禾
华西都市报
昨日(12月8日)，银监会召开了“信托公司房地产业务风险提示”新闻通气会，相关负责人证实银监会于近日发布了 《关于信托公司房地产信托业务风险提示的通知 (银监办发343号)》(以下“《通知》”)。
该文件要求信托公司对房地产信托业务进行自查，自查结束后银监局再进行核查；与此同时，该负责人否认银监会曾叫停中融信托等4家信托公司的房地产信托业务。
自查+核查
《通知》要求各信托公司立即进行业务合规性风险自查，逐笔分析业务的合规性和风险状况，包括但不限于信托公司发放贷款的房地产开发项目是否满足“四证”齐全、开发商或其控股股东是否具备二级资质、项目资本金比例是否达到国家最低要求等条件；第一还款来源充足性、可靠性评价；抵质押等担保措施情况及评价；项目到期偿付能力评价及风险处置预案等内容。
除了各信托公司自查外，《通知》还要求各银监局加强对辖内信托公司房地产信托业务的合规监管和风险监控，并在信托公司自查基础上，对房地产信托业务进行核查，对以受让债权等方式变相提供贷款的情况要按照实质重于形式的原则予以甄别。
根据银监会数据，今年以来房地产信托业务上升相对较快，而这种增长主要体现在第三季度。某信托公司前高层曾对《每日经济新闻》记者表示，7～9月房地产信托单月都超过200亿元，10月也有178亿元，这种情况很容易引起监管机构的注意。
上述银监会负责人表示，三季度房地产信托增速比较快，所以监管机构认为有必要提醒相关公司做好风险防范。该负责人还指出，银监会对于房地产信托业务的监管是持续的，而上述《通知》只是对相关机构进行风险提示。
重提禁止性融资方式
值得注意的是，《通知》再次强调了四三二原则，即获得信托融资的房地产商除了“四证齐全”外(《国有土地使用证》、《建设用地规划许可证》、《建设工程规划许可证》和《建设工程开工许可证》)，自有资金必须达到30%，同时还必须具有二级资质。
除了四三二原则外，银监会还重申了各种禁止性条件：包括禁止向开发商发放流动资金贷款、禁止进行商品房预售回购、禁止信托公司以信托资金发放土地储备贷款，以及将投资附回购形式的变相融资行为视同贷款管理等一系列监管政策。
某信托公司内部人士对 《每日经济新闻》记者表示，银监会先前曾就房地产信托业务发布了一系列相关文件，上面的规定并非首次出现，在《通知》中进行规定只是监管层想再一次提醒信托公司要严格执行。
否认叫停房地产信托业务
银监会还否认曾叫停中信、平安、中融信托等4家信托公司房地产信托业务，上述负责人表示，今年以来，银监会从没有暂停过任何一家信托公司的房地产信托业务。
他指出，上述四家信托公司可能在第三季度末举行的宏观经济形势分析会上，对房地产信托业务风险进行了关注，觉察到房地产信托业务以及整个房地产业务风险，并自动地把房地产信托业务缓下来或者停下来，而银监会并没有下文或口头要求信托公司暂停业务。
2010年8月24日，银监会曾发布《信托公司净资本管理办法》。该负责人昨日表示，银监会将对房地产信托业务赋予较大风险系数，以控制相关业务风险。
银监会提示信托公司：警惕房地产市场风险
银监会网站昨日发布《关于信托公司房地产信托业务风险提示的通知》，要求各信托公司逐笔分析房地产信托业务的合规性和风险状况，合理把握规模扩展。
据不完全统计，截至9月末，房地产信托类业务大概为3770亿元，在整个银行业金融机构的占比为10%多一点。
“三季度房地产信托业务的增速比较猛，所以银监会下发了《关于信托公司房地产信托业务风险提示的通知》(下称《通知》)，其实并没有新的规定，但对业务过快增长潜在的风险做了提示”，银监会非银行金融机构监管部信托公司非现场监管处处长战伟宏昨日表示。
今年8月初银监会正式下发《关于规范银信理财合作业务有关事项的通知》，银信合作被正式叫停。此后，房地产信托类业务开始激增。
《通知》要求，各信托公司需立即进行业务合规性风险自查，逐笔分析业务的合规性和风险状况，包括但不限于信托公司发放贷款的房地产开发项目是否满足“四证”齐全、开发商或其控股股东是否具备二级资质、项目资本金比例是否达到国家最低要求等条件；第一还款来源充足性、可靠性评价；抵质押等担保措施情况及评价；项目到期偿付能力评价及风险处置预案等内容。
据媒体报道，上月末，已有中融信托、平安信托等多家房地产信托公司接到银监会的通知，暂停房地产信托业务。
对此，战伟宏昨日表示，银监会对信托公司和房地产公司的合作要求，一直比较严格，但这类业务是合法的业务，银监会并未下文强制要求某些公司暂停该项业务。
战宏伟介绍，在三季度末例行的宏观经济形势分析会上，银监会主席刘明康对房地产信托业务做了风险提示，个别公司就把这块业务放缓或者暂停了，这是公司自己的行为。
银信合作业务占比低于30%可重开
战伟宏同时介绍，今年八月初叫停银信合作时，银信合作类理财产品在信托公司整体业务占比已超过70%，且大都是融资类业务，银监会的要求是该比例下降到30%以下，银信合作可以重新启动。
他表示，该类型很多产品期限均为一年，相信到2011年，很多存量的业务就到期了，到时候这个比例自然就降下来了。 宗禾
华西都市报
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
Treasurys Rise; 10-Year Yield Below 3%
By MIN ZENG
NEW YORK—Treasurys rose broadly on supportive comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.
An extra boost came from continued worries about sovereign-debt problems in the euro zone, and the Fed's buying $2.044 billion in Treasurys maturing between August 2028 and November 2040. The purchase is part of the central bank's $600 billion bond-buying program, known as quantitative easing, aimed at boosting economic recovery.
The benchmark 10-year note's yield, which moves inversely to its price, fell below 3% again after hitting 3.062% on Friday, the highest level since July.
Yet the bond market faces $66 billion in new government-debt supply. The Treasury Department will sell $32 billion three-year notes on Tuesday, $21 billion in 10-year notes Wednesday and $13 billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday.
"Bernanke's comments overnight and the Fed's purchase today helped support the bond market," said James Golden, head of Treasury trading in New York at Jefferies & Co. "However, taking supply at these yield levels isn't in the cards unless we see better buying between now and the auctions."
As of 2:52 p.m. EST, the benchmark 10-year note was 17/32 higher to yield 2.944%. The 30-year bond was 30/32 higher to yield 4.260% and the two-year note was 3/32 higher to yield 0.429%.
In an interview with CBS television aired on Sunday, Mr. Bernanke said "it's certainly possible" the Fed could expand a program to buy $600 billion in Treasury securities beyond the initial target it announced about a month ago.
Mr. Bernanke warned that the economic recovery "may not be" self-sustaining, highlighting the chance of unemployment staying high for a protracted period as "the primary source of risk that we might have another slowdown in the economy."
The weak labor market has been one of the key reasons behind the Fed's efforts to support the economy with quantitative easing. In the latest key payrolls report on Friday, the jobless rate unexpectedly rose to 9.8% in November from 9.6% a month ago.
"It is hard to fight against the Fed," said Russ Certo, co-head of rate trading at Gleacher & Co., a boutique investment bank and bond dealer.
Michael Franzese, head of Treasury trading at Wunderlich Securities in New York, said the 10-year note's yield will likely trade in a range of 2.83% and 3.08% over the next few weeks.
The five-year and seven-year notes, the favored target for the Fed's bond-buying program, were the best performers. The five-year note's yield fell by about 0.10 percentage point to 1.519%, extending Friday's rally after the weak nonfarm payrolls report.
Mr. Certo said Mr. Bernanke's comments made it difficult for primary dealers—the 18 banks obligated to bid on Treasury auctions—to set up for this week's supply.
Usually primary dealers tend to push down bond prices as a way to lure buyers to bid on the auctions. Yet Mr. Bernake's comments gave the bond market a lift, so many primary dealers resorted to other strategies, like selling Treasurys that will bear the supply pressure, such as the 10-year and 30-year sectors, and buying other maturities such as the five-year and seven-year notes, said Mr. Certo.
After forecasting lower Treasury yields for the past two years, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Monday that it is no longer a bull.
Francesco Garzarelli, chief interest-rate strategist at Goldman Sachs in London, said the 10-year note's yield will likely rise to 3.3% by the end of 2011 and climb to 3.8% by the end of 2012.
The higher yields reflected the company's optimism on the economic outlook, which will cut demand for safe-harbor Treasurys and boost buying in stocks. Economists at Goldman last week raised their forecast for both the global and U.S. economic outlook for 2011.
Write to Min Zeng at min.zeng@dowjones.com
NEW YORK—Treasurys rose broadly on supportive comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.
An extra boost came from continued worries about sovereign-debt problems in the euro zone, and the Fed's buying $2.044 billion in Treasurys maturing between August 2028 and November 2040. The purchase is part of the central bank's $600 billion bond-buying program, known as quantitative easing, aimed at boosting economic recovery.
The benchmark 10-year note's yield, which moves inversely to its price, fell below 3% again after hitting 3.062% on Friday, the highest level since July.
Yet the bond market faces $66 billion in new government-debt supply. The Treasury Department will sell $32 billion three-year notes on Tuesday, $21 billion in 10-year notes Wednesday and $13 billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday.
"Bernanke's comments overnight and the Fed's purchase today helped support the bond market," said James Golden, head of Treasury trading in New York at Jefferies & Co. "However, taking supply at these yield levels isn't in the cards unless we see better buying between now and the auctions."
As of 2:52 p.m. EST, the benchmark 10-year note was 17/32 higher to yield 2.944%. The 30-year bond was 30/32 higher to yield 4.260% and the two-year note was 3/32 higher to yield 0.429%.
In an interview with CBS television aired on Sunday, Mr. Bernanke said "it's certainly possible" the Fed could expand a program to buy $600 billion in Treasury securities beyond the initial target it announced about a month ago.
Mr. Bernanke warned that the economic recovery "may not be" self-sustaining, highlighting the chance of unemployment staying high for a protracted period as "the primary source of risk that we might have another slowdown in the economy."
The weak labor market has been one of the key reasons behind the Fed's efforts to support the economy with quantitative easing. In the latest key payrolls report on Friday, the jobless rate unexpectedly rose to 9.8% in November from 9.6% a month ago.
"It is hard to fight against the Fed," said Russ Certo, co-head of rate trading at Gleacher & Co., a boutique investment bank and bond dealer.
Michael Franzese, head of Treasury trading at Wunderlich Securities in New York, said the 10-year note's yield will likely trade in a range of 2.83% and 3.08% over the next few weeks.
The five-year and seven-year notes, the favored target for the Fed's bond-buying program, were the best performers. The five-year note's yield fell by about 0.10 percentage point to 1.519%, extending Friday's rally after the weak nonfarm payrolls report.
Mr. Certo said Mr. Bernanke's comments made it difficult for primary dealers—the 18 banks obligated to bid on Treasury auctions—to set up for this week's supply.
Usually primary dealers tend to push down bond prices as a way to lure buyers to bid on the auctions. Yet Mr. Bernake's comments gave the bond market a lift, so many primary dealers resorted to other strategies, like selling Treasurys that will bear the supply pressure, such as the 10-year and 30-year sectors, and buying other maturities such as the five-year and seven-year notes, said Mr. Certo.
After forecasting lower Treasury yields for the past two years, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Monday that it is no longer a bull.
Francesco Garzarelli, chief interest-rate strategist at Goldman Sachs in London, said the 10-year note's yield will likely rise to 3.3% by the end of 2011 and climb to 3.8% by the end of 2012.
The higher yields reflected the company's optimism on the economic outlook, which will cut demand for safe-harbor Treasurys and boost buying in stocks. Economists at Goldman last week raised their forecast for both the global and U.S. economic outlook for 2011.
Write to Min Zeng at min.zeng@dowjones.com
Diesel-Fuel Gauge Shows Economic Hurdles
Bloomberg News
An index that uses diesel-fuel consumption as a proxy for economic activity has a good track record of signaling economic turning points.
.Take the little-known Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index, out Tuesday, which uses diesel-fuel consumption as a proxy for economic activity. The seasonally adjusted index will show a small uptick in November following three straight monthly declines. Unfortunately, the 0.4% gain isn't enough to reverse the prior month's decline—or to break its downward momentum.
The three-month rolling average of the index has declined for three of the past four months, breaking a run of 13 prior gains dating back to the recession's official end in June 2009. That points to annualized gross-domestic-product growth of "2% or under" in the current fourth quarter, says PCI chief economist and UCLA professor Ed Leamer.
That is a pretty contrarian view. Many economists have been raising their U.S. growth forecasts following a raft of better-than-expected economic reports, plus the Federal Reserve's ultra-loose monetary policy. Goldman Sachs now expects GDP will grow at a 2.7% pace in the fourth quarter and 3.6% next year. Similarly, Barclays Capital strategists recommend investors move from a defensive to a more aggressive stock-based portfolio heading into 2011.
But investors shouldn't tune out the creaking wheels of commerce. The PCI, over its 11-year history, has a decent record of nailing economic turning points. It peaked in January 2008, just one month after the recession officially began, then hit bottom the same month the recession ended last June. Most recently, it has been trending down since topping out back in May.
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.Mr. Leamer chalks it up to the double whammy of a fading inventory boom plus weakness in construction and manufacturing. Recent data from the Institute for Supply Management support this view: the manufacturing production index fell nearly eight points last month, while the inventory index hit a 25-year high. Last Friday's jobs report, meanwhile, showed both industries shed workers in November as the U.S. unemployment rate rose to 9.8%.
That doesn't mean a double-dip recession is around the corner. It does cast doubt on the potential for lowering the unemployment rate, though—and suggests the U.S. economy isn't carrying quite as much momentum into next year as Wall Street seems to expect.
Write to Kelly Evans at kelly.evans@wsj.com
An index that uses diesel-fuel consumption as a proxy for economic activity has a good track record of signaling economic turning points.
.Take the little-known Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index, out Tuesday, which uses diesel-fuel consumption as a proxy for economic activity. The seasonally adjusted index will show a small uptick in November following three straight monthly declines. Unfortunately, the 0.4% gain isn't enough to reverse the prior month's decline—or to break its downward momentum.
The three-month rolling average of the index has declined for three of the past four months, breaking a run of 13 prior gains dating back to the recession's official end in June 2009. That points to annualized gross-domestic-product growth of "2% or under" in the current fourth quarter, says PCI chief economist and UCLA professor Ed Leamer.
That is a pretty contrarian view. Many economists have been raising their U.S. growth forecasts following a raft of better-than-expected economic reports, plus the Federal Reserve's ultra-loose monetary policy. Goldman Sachs now expects GDP will grow at a 2.7% pace in the fourth quarter and 3.6% next year. Similarly, Barclays Capital strategists recommend investors move from a defensive to a more aggressive stock-based portfolio heading into 2011.
But investors shouldn't tune out the creaking wheels of commerce. The PCI, over its 11-year history, has a decent record of nailing economic turning points. It peaked in January 2008, just one month after the recession officially began, then hit bottom the same month the recession ended last June. Most recently, it has been trending down since topping out back in May.
View Full Image
.Mr. Leamer chalks it up to the double whammy of a fading inventory boom plus weakness in construction and manufacturing. Recent data from the Institute for Supply Management support this view: the manufacturing production index fell nearly eight points last month, while the inventory index hit a 25-year high. Last Friday's jobs report, meanwhile, showed both industries shed workers in November as the U.S. unemployment rate rose to 9.8%.
That doesn't mean a double-dip recession is around the corner. It does cast doubt on the potential for lowering the unemployment rate, though—and suggests the U.S. economy isn't carrying quite as much momentum into next year as Wall Street seems to expect.
Write to Kelly Evans at kelly.evans@wsj.com
Big Bank Sitting On A Big Pile Of Copper
Big Bank Sitting On A Big Pile Of Copper
By CAROLYN CUI And DAN FITZPATRICK
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. has emerged as the mystery buyer of more than $1 billion of copper, accounting for more than 50% of all the metal stored in official London warehouses and stoking worries about an impending supply shortage.
The New York bank's purchases have caused a stir in commodities circles in recent weeks. The London Metal Exchange late last month revealed a buyer had snapped up a large chunk of the exchange's copper stockpiles, leaving some to question whether a trader was trying to corner the market for the metal.
J.P. Morgan's appearance as the owner of the copper alleviated some of those worries.
The bank bought the copper mostly on behalf of clients, according to a person familiar with the matter, so it doesn't directly own all the metal. But the buying spree does leave a large swathe of copper in the hands of one bank and its clients.
View Full Image
."That percentage of total LME inventories is enough to get people's attention. They certainly do sort of have a lock on the market there," said Louis Zawislak, president of Commodity Management Solutions Ltd., a metals-consulting company.
Big positions aren't uncommon. Last week, the LME reported that single traders also held the majority of aluminum alloy and nickel, showing how commodities are increasingly dominated by a few players.
But while only a small piece of annual copper supplies, which will be about 19 million metric tons in 2010, J.P. Morgan's purchases are meaningful. The LME, considered the hub of base-metals trading, says it warehouses hold about 350,000 tons of copper, down from 555,000 in February.
The LME last week said the buyer had bought between 50% and 80% of the exchange's copper. A person familiar with the matter said J.P. Morgan's holdings are toward the low end of that range, indicating it owns more than 175,000 tons.
J.P. Morgan's purchases were reported by London's Daily Telegraph newspaper.
Copper is used in everything from electrical wires to pipes and air conditioners and demand for the metal is expected to shoot higher as the global economy recovers.
World-wide copper demand is likely to outpace supply by 497,500 metric tons next year, according to Casimir Capital, a hedge fund specializing in natural resources.
View Full Image
Bloomberg News
The London Metal Exchange late last month revealed a buyer had snapped up a large chunk of the exchange's copper stockpiles, leaving some to question whether a trader was trying to corner the market for the metal. .Here, traders on floor of the London Metal Exchange.
."The tightness of the copper market is revealed by the fact that one participant can assemble over half of the available copper stocks," said Justin Lennon, base metals analyst at Mitsui Bussan Commodities in New York. "This says that there's not a lot of spare metal out there, that's for darn sure."
Copper for three-month delivery on the LME has jumped 7.2% to $8,729.5 a metric ton since Nov. 23, when the mystery buying came to light. New York copper is up 8.1%.
Copper prices have also moved into what is known as "backwardation," meaning it is more expensive to buy copper for immediate delivery than for delivery in a few months' time. That is the opposite of the market's usual pricing and suggests that some are worried about a short-term supply squeeze.
As well as being alert to an improving economic picture, traders have also been bracing for the start of three exchange-traded funds that will be backed by copper. Those ETFs are likely to open up the copper market to new investors, many of them smaller investors, potentially fueling a big rise in demand.
J.P. Morgan is among those starting a copper ETF, which is set to launch next year.
J.P. Morgan's copper moves illustrate how the bank has emerged as a major player in world commodities markets after spending more than $2 billion on a series of acquisitions. Under the leadership of executive Blythe Masters, the commodities unit expanded to 1,800 employees, de-emphasized risky proprietary trading and boosted its reliance on client revenue. But performance has fallen short of expectations this year amid trading stumbles.
The $1.7 billion purchase of RBS Sempra Commodities in July gave J.P. Morgan a big trading platform, a host of LME warehouses, and a seat in the LME's coveted trading ring.
J.P. Morgan is one of the LME's 12 so-called category one ring dealers. That means the bank can make markets in the metal and hold it on behalf of its clients.
"As one of the leading firms in base metals and as a Category 1 ring dealing member of the LME, we are expected to make markets for our clients," a J.P. Morgan spokeswoman said on Monday.
It also gives J.P. Morgan's traders a seat inside the LME's ring of red leather couches during open-outcry trading—a session held for 15 minutes four times a day that allows key trading firms to negotiate trades face to face, rather than through electronic trading.
The LME has certain rules to discourage anyone from holding a dominant position, including forcing the trader to lend the copper to the market and limiting the fees the trader can charge. As long as there is a smooth supply of the metal, the exchange won't ask the trader to reduce the holdings.
—Tatyana Shumsky contributed to this article.
Write to Carolyn Cui at carolyn.cui@wsj.com and Dan Fitzpatrick at dan.fitzpatrick@wsj.com
By CAROLYN CUI And DAN FITZPATRICK
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. has emerged as the mystery buyer of more than $1 billion of copper, accounting for more than 50% of all the metal stored in official London warehouses and stoking worries about an impending supply shortage.
The New York bank's purchases have caused a stir in commodities circles in recent weeks. The London Metal Exchange late last month revealed a buyer had snapped up a large chunk of the exchange's copper stockpiles, leaving some to question whether a trader was trying to corner the market for the metal.
J.P. Morgan's appearance as the owner of the copper alleviated some of those worries.
The bank bought the copper mostly on behalf of clients, according to a person familiar with the matter, so it doesn't directly own all the metal. But the buying spree does leave a large swathe of copper in the hands of one bank and its clients.
View Full Image
."That percentage of total LME inventories is enough to get people's attention. They certainly do sort of have a lock on the market there," said Louis Zawislak, president of Commodity Management Solutions Ltd., a metals-consulting company.
Big positions aren't uncommon. Last week, the LME reported that single traders also held the majority of aluminum alloy and nickel, showing how commodities are increasingly dominated by a few players.
But while only a small piece of annual copper supplies, which will be about 19 million metric tons in 2010, J.P. Morgan's purchases are meaningful. The LME, considered the hub of base-metals trading, says it warehouses hold about 350,000 tons of copper, down from 555,000 in February.
The LME last week said the buyer had bought between 50% and 80% of the exchange's copper. A person familiar with the matter said J.P. Morgan's holdings are toward the low end of that range, indicating it owns more than 175,000 tons.
J.P. Morgan's purchases were reported by London's Daily Telegraph newspaper.
Copper is used in everything from electrical wires to pipes and air conditioners and demand for the metal is expected to shoot higher as the global economy recovers.
World-wide copper demand is likely to outpace supply by 497,500 metric tons next year, according to Casimir Capital, a hedge fund specializing in natural resources.
View Full Image
Bloomberg News
The London Metal Exchange late last month revealed a buyer had snapped up a large chunk of the exchange's copper stockpiles, leaving some to question whether a trader was trying to corner the market for the metal. .Here, traders on floor of the London Metal Exchange.
."The tightness of the copper market is revealed by the fact that one participant can assemble over half of the available copper stocks," said Justin Lennon, base metals analyst at Mitsui Bussan Commodities in New York. "This says that there's not a lot of spare metal out there, that's for darn sure."
Copper for three-month delivery on the LME has jumped 7.2% to $8,729.5 a metric ton since Nov. 23, when the mystery buying came to light. New York copper is up 8.1%.
Copper prices have also moved into what is known as "backwardation," meaning it is more expensive to buy copper for immediate delivery than for delivery in a few months' time. That is the opposite of the market's usual pricing and suggests that some are worried about a short-term supply squeeze.
As well as being alert to an improving economic picture, traders have also been bracing for the start of three exchange-traded funds that will be backed by copper. Those ETFs are likely to open up the copper market to new investors, many of them smaller investors, potentially fueling a big rise in demand.
J.P. Morgan is among those starting a copper ETF, which is set to launch next year.
J.P. Morgan's copper moves illustrate how the bank has emerged as a major player in world commodities markets after spending more than $2 billion on a series of acquisitions. Under the leadership of executive Blythe Masters, the commodities unit expanded to 1,800 employees, de-emphasized risky proprietary trading and boosted its reliance on client revenue. But performance has fallen short of expectations this year amid trading stumbles.
The $1.7 billion purchase of RBS Sempra Commodities in July gave J.P. Morgan a big trading platform, a host of LME warehouses, and a seat in the LME's coveted trading ring.
J.P. Morgan is one of the LME's 12 so-called category one ring dealers. That means the bank can make markets in the metal and hold it on behalf of its clients.
"As one of the leading firms in base metals and as a Category 1 ring dealing member of the LME, we are expected to make markets for our clients," a J.P. Morgan spokeswoman said on Monday.
It also gives J.P. Morgan's traders a seat inside the LME's ring of red leather couches during open-outcry trading—a session held for 15 minutes four times a day that allows key trading firms to negotiate trades face to face, rather than through electronic trading.
The LME has certain rules to discourage anyone from holding a dominant position, including forcing the trader to lend the copper to the market and limiting the fees the trader can charge. As long as there is a smooth supply of the metal, the exchange won't ask the trader to reduce the holdings.
—Tatyana Shumsky contributed to this article.
Write to Carolyn Cui at carolyn.cui@wsj.com and Dan Fitzpatrick at dan.fitzpatrick@wsj.com
Monday, December 6, 2010
China's Would-Be Amazon Steps Up
China's Would-Be Amazon Steps Up
By LYNN COWAN
This week is an active one for the U.S. IPO market, with eight deals vying for investors' attention, but the clear leader of the pack is online bookseller E-Commerce China Dangdang Inc.
The Beijing-based company, which has been operating for more than a decade, is getting top billing as China's version of Amazon.com. It is listing its initial public offering of stock on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol DANG, with hopes of raising $221 million.
.Dangdang claims to be the largest book retailer by revenue in that country, and is expanding into other general merchandise areas. Operating in a country with the largest number of Internet users in the world, yet a relatively low Internet penetration rate compared to Western standards, the company has churned out at 56% increase in total net revenue in the first nine months of the year, compared to the same period of 2009. That's the kind of top-line growth that American investors love to see from China, and analysts are predicting a good first-day pop for the stock.
But amid all the buzz over Dangdang, investors shouldn't lose sight of the fact that the company remains foremost a bookseller—comparable to Amazon.com only if you roll back the hands of time. Amazon makes more from electronics and general merchandise than books now, and while Dangdang is pushing toward sales of other merchandise, more than 80% of its net revenue is still derived from books and other media products.
Branching out beyond books to a level that equals Amazon's may be a challenge; just last year, Dangdang launched its dangdang.com marketplace program to allow third-party sales of merchandise alongside its own products. Its biggest rival in this space is Alibaba Group's Taobao.com, China's largest Internet retail platform. Taobao, a consumer-to-consumer portal, recently launched its business-to-consumer sales forum, Taobao Mall, as a separate site called Tmall.com.
Though Dangdang will be in the spotlight this week, there are four other Chinese companies hoping to come public in the U.S. as bankers push through the final stretch of the year, including Internet television company Youku.com Inc., listing on the NYSE as YOKU; mobile-phone app store Sky-mobi Ltd., headed for the Nasdaq under MOBI; film distributor Bona Film Group Ltd., also Nasdaq-bound under BONA; and auto dealer Lentuo International Inc., going to the NYSE under LAS. For a little bit of variety, a Taiwanese maker of light-emitting diodes, SemiLEDs Corp., is going to the Nasdaq under LEDS.
There are just two U.S. IPOs listing in the U.S. this week: gas partnership owner Targa Resources Corp. and First Republic Bank, a commercial bank and trust company based in San Francisco that caters to wealthy customers.
Write to Lynn Cowan at lynn.cowan@dowjones.com
By LYNN COWAN
This week is an active one for the U.S. IPO market, with eight deals vying for investors' attention, but the clear leader of the pack is online bookseller E-Commerce China Dangdang Inc.
The Beijing-based company, which has been operating for more than a decade, is getting top billing as China's version of Amazon.com. It is listing its initial public offering of stock on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol DANG, with hopes of raising $221 million.
.Dangdang claims to be the largest book retailer by revenue in that country, and is expanding into other general merchandise areas. Operating in a country with the largest number of Internet users in the world, yet a relatively low Internet penetration rate compared to Western standards, the company has churned out at 56% increase in total net revenue in the first nine months of the year, compared to the same period of 2009. That's the kind of top-line growth that American investors love to see from China, and analysts are predicting a good first-day pop for the stock.
But amid all the buzz over Dangdang, investors shouldn't lose sight of the fact that the company remains foremost a bookseller—comparable to Amazon.com only if you roll back the hands of time. Amazon makes more from electronics and general merchandise than books now, and while Dangdang is pushing toward sales of other merchandise, more than 80% of its net revenue is still derived from books and other media products.
Branching out beyond books to a level that equals Amazon's may be a challenge; just last year, Dangdang launched its dangdang.com marketplace program to allow third-party sales of merchandise alongside its own products. Its biggest rival in this space is Alibaba Group's Taobao.com, China's largest Internet retail platform. Taobao, a consumer-to-consumer portal, recently launched its business-to-consumer sales forum, Taobao Mall, as a separate site called Tmall.com.
Though Dangdang will be in the spotlight this week, there are four other Chinese companies hoping to come public in the U.S. as bankers push through the final stretch of the year, including Internet television company Youku.com Inc., listing on the NYSE as YOKU; mobile-phone app store Sky-mobi Ltd., headed for the Nasdaq under MOBI; film distributor Bona Film Group Ltd., also Nasdaq-bound under BONA; and auto dealer Lentuo International Inc., going to the NYSE under LAS. For a little bit of variety, a Taiwanese maker of light-emitting diodes, SemiLEDs Corp., is going to the Nasdaq under LEDS.
There are just two U.S. IPOs listing in the U.S. this week: gas partnership owner Targa Resources Corp. and First Republic Bank, a commercial bank and trust company based in San Francisco that caters to wealthy customers.
Write to Lynn Cowan at lynn.cowan@dowjones.com
As Bonds Flag, Stocks Beckon
As Bonds Flag, Stocks Beckon
By MARK GONGLOFF
After a stellar two-year run, the bond market is stumbling and a number of investors are betting that stocks will post better returns in the coming months.
Among the signs being held up as evidence: Investors in the past two weeks pulled money from bond funds for the first time in almost two years, and there are indications of a growing move toward stocks.
The long string of bad headlines for bonds left the 10-year Treasury note yield above 3% on Friday for the first time since late July. Bond yields rise as prices fall. But the jobs numbers, along with nagging worries about sovereign debt in Europe, are reminders that any decline in the bond market could come as a slow leak rather than a loud burst—if it happens at all.
"Right now we're still in a bull market that's very tired and at risk, but hasn't started to sell off yet," said Howard Simons, bond-market strategist at Bianco Research in Chicago, referring to bonds. "It's fraying around the edges."
A series of surprisingly positive economic reports has raised hopes of a stronger recovery, which would mean higher interest rates and a robust stock market. Some relatively bearish economists and strategists, including those at Goldman Sachs, have recently raised their outlooks for growth and interest rates.
.Investment-grade corporate bonds in November had their worst month since February 2009, losing 0.8%, according to Barclays Capital indexes. Treasurys and high-yield bonds also took losses in their worst months since March and May, respectively. Only bank loans, which have floating rates and tend to outperform when rates are rising, had positive returns in November.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has rallied nearly 18% since July 2, including a 2.6% gain last week, which held up despite Friday's jobs data.
Even if the much awaited shift from bonds to stocks may be less forceful than some expected, many observers still think stocks have more juice than bonds, as long as the economy keeps recovering.
"It is getting to a point where it will start to get tough for credit to outperform equities, given the low level of yields," said Ashish Shah, co-head of global credit investment at AllianceBernstein, noting high-yield bonds yield less than 8%, near their lowest levels in decades.
Money left bond mutual funds in the two weeks through Nov. 23, according to the Investment Company Institute, the first outflows since December 2008, roughly when the bond bull market began.
Even seemingly bulletproof emerging markets have suffered bond-fund outflows for two straight weeks, according to data tracker EPFR Global.
In the U.S., the flight from bond funds was due to a stampede from municipal-bond funds, which lost nearly $7.9 billion in just two weeks, according to ICI data.
This flight from munis may be a harbinger of what is to come if the bond market finally cracks, suggests Gregory Peters, global director of fixed-income research at Morgan Stanley.
Muni funds are telling because they are magnets for mom-and-pop money, and they are particularly sensitive to increases in interest rates.
November's surge in Treasury yields helped trigger a 2% loss in munis, according to Barclays Capital indexes, as selling begat more selling among mutual-fund managers.
Still, Mr. Peters and most bond-market observers are loath to declare that a mass exodus from bonds is imminent.
Three props could support bonds for the next several months: choppy economic growth, worries about Europe, and the promise of as much as $900 billion in Treasury purchases by the Federal Reserve.
"With that combination, it's going to be hard for bond yields to move too far," said Joseph Shatz, rates strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Meanwhile, investors are still cautious after a dismal decade for stocks. After tiptoeing back into stock funds in October and November, investors have pulled money out of stocks again in recent weeks, according to ICI data.
Some of the recent shift of retail money into bonds may be lasting, as an aging population chooses what it thinks are safer assets than stocks. Household stock ownership is still high relative to history. Pension funds are shifting more money to bonds to match long-term liabilities.
Even if rates keep trickling higher, corporate bonds could still thrive, benefiting from economic growth and the unusually clean balance sheets of many industrial companies.
"While we believe that growth is going to be better, it's going to be a volatile path," said Mr. Shah of AllianceBernstein. "And fixed income is typically a piece of the portfolio to protect you from the volatility of the equity piece."
Recent moves out of bonds likely have much to do with investors cashing in profitable investments and avoiding big new trades that could turn a good year into a bad one. Despite the pain in November, Treasurys have still returned nearly 7% this year, and high-yield bonds have returned nearly 14%.
"The inflection point is not upon us," said James Camp, managing director of fixed income at Eagle Asset Management in St. Petersburg, Fla., who oversees about $3.9 billion in fixed-income funds. He called the recent selloff a "welcome" correction after a long run.
"People have been lulled into opening up their statements month after month and seeing bonds keep going up," Mr. Camp said, "and mathematically we know that's impossible."
Write to Mark Gongloff at mark.gongloff@wsj.com
By MARK GONGLOFF
After a stellar two-year run, the bond market is stumbling and a number of investors are betting that stocks will post better returns in the coming months.
Among the signs being held up as evidence: Investors in the past two weeks pulled money from bond funds for the first time in almost two years, and there are indications of a growing move toward stocks.
The long string of bad headlines for bonds left the 10-year Treasury note yield above 3% on Friday for the first time since late July. Bond yields rise as prices fall. But the jobs numbers, along with nagging worries about sovereign debt in Europe, are reminders that any decline in the bond market could come as a slow leak rather than a loud burst—if it happens at all.
"Right now we're still in a bull market that's very tired and at risk, but hasn't started to sell off yet," said Howard Simons, bond-market strategist at Bianco Research in Chicago, referring to bonds. "It's fraying around the edges."
A series of surprisingly positive economic reports has raised hopes of a stronger recovery, which would mean higher interest rates and a robust stock market. Some relatively bearish economists and strategists, including those at Goldman Sachs, have recently raised their outlooks for growth and interest rates.
.Investment-grade corporate bonds in November had their worst month since February 2009, losing 0.8%, according to Barclays Capital indexes. Treasurys and high-yield bonds also took losses in their worst months since March and May, respectively. Only bank loans, which have floating rates and tend to outperform when rates are rising, had positive returns in November.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has rallied nearly 18% since July 2, including a 2.6% gain last week, which held up despite Friday's jobs data.
Even if the much awaited shift from bonds to stocks may be less forceful than some expected, many observers still think stocks have more juice than bonds, as long as the economy keeps recovering.
"It is getting to a point where it will start to get tough for credit to outperform equities, given the low level of yields," said Ashish Shah, co-head of global credit investment at AllianceBernstein, noting high-yield bonds yield less than 8%, near their lowest levels in decades.
Money left bond mutual funds in the two weeks through Nov. 23, according to the Investment Company Institute, the first outflows since December 2008, roughly when the bond bull market began.
Even seemingly bulletproof emerging markets have suffered bond-fund outflows for two straight weeks, according to data tracker EPFR Global.
In the U.S., the flight from bond funds was due to a stampede from municipal-bond funds, which lost nearly $7.9 billion in just two weeks, according to ICI data.
This flight from munis may be a harbinger of what is to come if the bond market finally cracks, suggests Gregory Peters, global director of fixed-income research at Morgan Stanley.
Muni funds are telling because they are magnets for mom-and-pop money, and they are particularly sensitive to increases in interest rates.
November's surge in Treasury yields helped trigger a 2% loss in munis, according to Barclays Capital indexes, as selling begat more selling among mutual-fund managers.
Still, Mr. Peters and most bond-market observers are loath to declare that a mass exodus from bonds is imminent.
Three props could support bonds for the next several months: choppy economic growth, worries about Europe, and the promise of as much as $900 billion in Treasury purchases by the Federal Reserve.
"With that combination, it's going to be hard for bond yields to move too far," said Joseph Shatz, rates strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Meanwhile, investors are still cautious after a dismal decade for stocks. After tiptoeing back into stock funds in October and November, investors have pulled money out of stocks again in recent weeks, according to ICI data.
Some of the recent shift of retail money into bonds may be lasting, as an aging population chooses what it thinks are safer assets than stocks. Household stock ownership is still high relative to history. Pension funds are shifting more money to bonds to match long-term liabilities.
Even if rates keep trickling higher, corporate bonds could still thrive, benefiting from economic growth and the unusually clean balance sheets of many industrial companies.
"While we believe that growth is going to be better, it's going to be a volatile path," said Mr. Shah of AllianceBernstein. "And fixed income is typically a piece of the portfolio to protect you from the volatility of the equity piece."
Recent moves out of bonds likely have much to do with investors cashing in profitable investments and avoiding big new trades that could turn a good year into a bad one. Despite the pain in November, Treasurys have still returned nearly 7% this year, and high-yield bonds have returned nearly 14%.
"The inflection point is not upon us," said James Camp, managing director of fixed income at Eagle Asset Management in St. Petersburg, Fla., who oversees about $3.9 billion in fixed-income funds. He called the recent selloff a "welcome" correction after a long run.
"People have been lulled into opening up their statements month after month and seeing bonds keep going up," Mr. Camp said, "and mathematically we know that's impossible."
Write to Mark Gongloff at mark.gongloff@wsj.com
Sunday, December 5, 2010
司献民：民航业的火爆是暂时的
司献民：民航业的火爆是暂时的
中国民航业市场集中度大幅提升的空间已不大，三大航与海航并存的格局将维持较长时间。未来两年，国内航空业仍能保持较好的盈利状态，但三五年后不排除出现运力过剩、行业亏损的可能。这期间，货运市场和国际市场的重要性将加速上升
【《财经》记者 董珺】2010年将是中国民航业有史以来业绩最好的一年。截至今年前三季度，国航、东航、南航、海航四家航空公司合计净利润逾200亿元，远远超过2009年中国民航全行业122亿元的盈利水平。
这同样也是暗潮汹涌的一年。腐败弊案、伊春空难、延误高发，各种矛盾在市场高速成长中逐一爆发。
作为国内机队规模最大的航空公司，南方航空经历着中国民航正在经历的一切，一度深陷腐败漩涡。
一年中，《财经》记者三度造访南航总部，两次恰好赶上南航股东大会。席间，数家机构投资者对南航管理层提出诸如“如何解释航班时刻金钱交易”等尖锐问题。身为南航集团总经理、南航股份董事长的司献民则坐在投资者正对面的桌子后，语速平缓，出言谨慎。会间休息时，司献民总是先从口袋里掏出一根香烟，然后走到投资者和记者面前，用略带河南口音的普通话说，“多支持我们啊！”
熟悉南航的人理解司献民肩头的压力。他的前任刘绍勇，于金融危机高潮之际调任东方航空，纵横捭阖“东上航”重组。彼时之南航，拥庞大机队而无用武之地，资产负债率高企至88%。
目前，南航已经拥有412架飞机，机队规模位居全球第五、亚洲第一。但是，南航的机型多达十几种，是机型最复杂的航空公司之一。这意味着，南航不得不为此支付更多的成本。与此同时，空客A380、波音787均将于明年交付南航，为南航筹谋已久的国际市场及北京枢纽提供运力保障。
司献民对此还是一贯的谨慎，“南航在‘十二五’期间仍将以调整结构为主，发展速度可能低于中国民航的平均增速。”谈到整个行业未来五年发展，司献民表示，两年内国内航空业仍能保持较好的盈利格局，随着飞机逐渐交付，供需缺口缩小，未来三至五年不排除出现运力过剩、行业亏损的可能。
《财经》：南航已经成为亚洲机队规模最大的航空公司，这些飞机如何用才能产生最好的效益？
司献民：如何使用好这个庞大的机队确实是我们一直在思考的问题。目前，南航已经拥有412架飞机，机队规模位居全球第五、亚洲第一。但是，南航的机型多达十几种，也是机型最复杂的航空公司之一。这意味着，南航不得不为此支付更多的成本，如飞行员培训成本、维修成本、航材储备成本和管理成本等。为此，国际金融危机以来，南航采取了淘汰落后机型、以新换旧等方法，不断优化机型结构。截止到今年9月，南航共出售 MD82等老旧机型4架，新购A320、A321、B777等客货飞机39架，进一步优化了机队结构，降低了成本，提高了效率。未来3-5年，南航还将进一步把公司的机型简化到5到6种，使公司的规模经济效应充分发挥出来，从而实现更大的经济效益。
《财经》：明年A380即将交付南航，届时南航的运力网络将如何调配？首都机场目前已经有三家实力相当强的外国航空公司运营A380，南航如何与其竞争？
司献民：A380的运营不仅对南航北京枢纽有重要意义，而且对公司整个航线网络的优化也将产生重大影响。早在确定引进A380之初，南航就专门成立了项目小组，研究规划A380运营航线以及与之配套的运营系统。目前，我们正在编织支持A380运营的中转网络，努力提升公司网络质量，确保北京枢纽战略落地。
去年以来，南航以澳洲中转为突破口，航线网络得到了进一步优化。今年上半年，澳洲航线旅客人数同比增长66.1%，客座率同比提高10%，中转人数同比增长272.2%。我们将把澳洲航线的运营经验，推广到A380航线上去，扎实推进战略转型。
在练好内功的同时，南航正积极与兄弟航空公司、天合联盟成员公司商谈代码共享、座位分销等形式的合作，借助外力共同经营A380航线。当前，三家外航不约而同地选择北京作为A380首个通航城市，这说明大家都看好中国的发展前景，看好北京市场。
《财经》：今年是南航的调整结构之年，您在今年6月的股东大会中也说过，南航在“十二五”期间仍将以调整结构为主，发展速度可能低于中国民航的平均增速。具体调哪些内容？目前进展如何？以牺牲增速为代价，南航希望获得怎样的结果？
司献民：当前，调结构既是我国经济宏观调控的关键词，也是南航现阶段工作的着力点。我们在公司年初的工作报告中就提出要：“调结构、推转型、促改革、上水平”。其中，“调结构”的主要内容是，以调整公司负债结构为主线，对资本结构、资产结构、成本结构、收入结构等进行全面的调整和优化资源与市场相匹配，负债水平和财务能力、盈利能力相适应，规模、速度与效益相协调。
经过半年多的努力，目前公司的各项结构调整正在有条不紊地进行。在资本结构方面，我们通过发挥注资的杠杆效应，已成功定向增发筹资107.3亿元，使南航的资产负债率从当前的85%降低到73%左右。在资产结构方面，南航股份通过着手组建信息公司、出售摩天宇航空发动机维修公司，加快清理处理不良资产，进一步盘活了存量资源；在成本结构方面，南航通过科学购租飞机、优化航材储备、降低行政开支等多种方式，有效降低了成本。截止到今年8月，南航在营业收入大幅增长40.3%的情况下，成本仅增长了27.3%，三项费用（销售、管理和财务费用）仅提高了11.6%；在收入结构方面，我们确定的目标是 “逐步提高国际市场收入、货运业务收入在总收入中的比重”。去年底，南航国际市场收入的占比为11.3%，货运业务收入的占比为4.9%。到今年8月，这两项占比分别提高到了13.7%和5.8%。
通过调结构，主要是为了解决南航多年来“大而不强”的问题。我相信，通过积极调结构，南航将逐步从外延式粗放型增长向内涵式集约型发展转变，并最终形成持续盈利能力强、抗风险能力高、服务质量一流、具有国际竞争力的航空产业集团。
《财经》：您如何看待中国民航未来五年的发展？
司献民：今年以来，国内航空公司盈利大幅上升。未来几年，由于我国人均收入正处于消费升级区间，且上升空间较大，所以民航业需求保持较快增长仍是可以预期的。但是，在需求增长的同时，运力也会快速增长。由于盈利上升和预期乐观，国内航空公司都将加快飞机引进速度，供求缺口会很快缩小。所以我们预计，2年内国内航空业仍能保持较好的盈利格局，但未来3-5年不排除出现运力过剩、行业亏损的可能。
未来五年，中国民航业的竞争格局可能不会发生大的变化。从世界范围看，航空运输业市场集中度不断提高已成趋势，欧洲已形成以法荷航、汉莎航和英航为主的市场格局；美国则是美联航、三角航、美洲航和西南航四分天下。从国内看，在东航重组上航、国航并购深航后，中国民航业市场集中度大幅提升的可能性已不大，三大航与海航并存的格局仍将维持较长时间。
未来几年，货运市场和国际市场对于中国民航业的重要性将会上升。今年以来这个趋势已经有所展现，随着我国产业结构调整、居民消费升级和国际旅游业的进一步发展，这个趋势将会更加明显。同时，国内航空运输企业的竞争及高铁的发展也将加快这一过程。
《财经》：伊春空难对于中国民航业的影响体现在哪些方面？
司献民：一是安全管理得到进一步加强。二是行业竞争格局更加稳固。伊春空难后，消费者和民航管理部门都对小型航空运输企业的安全管理表示了担忧，民航局也在酝酿提高新成立航空公司的注册资金门槛，客运航空公司注册资本将由原来的8000万元提高到8亿-10亿元，货运公司将提高到5亿-8亿元，所以，中国民航业市场集中度稳中有升的态势将会更加巩固。
中国民航业市场集中度大幅提升的空间已不大，三大航与海航并存的格局将维持较长时间。未来两年，国内航空业仍能保持较好的盈利状态，但三五年后不排除出现运力过剩、行业亏损的可能。这期间，货运市场和国际市场的重要性将加速上升
【《财经》记者 董珺】2010年将是中国民航业有史以来业绩最好的一年。截至今年前三季度，国航、东航、南航、海航四家航空公司合计净利润逾200亿元，远远超过2009年中国民航全行业122亿元的盈利水平。
这同样也是暗潮汹涌的一年。腐败弊案、伊春空难、延误高发，各种矛盾在市场高速成长中逐一爆发。
作为国内机队规模最大的航空公司，南方航空经历着中国民航正在经历的一切，一度深陷腐败漩涡。
一年中，《财经》记者三度造访南航总部，两次恰好赶上南航股东大会。席间，数家机构投资者对南航管理层提出诸如“如何解释航班时刻金钱交易”等尖锐问题。身为南航集团总经理、南航股份董事长的司献民则坐在投资者正对面的桌子后，语速平缓，出言谨慎。会间休息时，司献民总是先从口袋里掏出一根香烟，然后走到投资者和记者面前，用略带河南口音的普通话说，“多支持我们啊！”
熟悉南航的人理解司献民肩头的压力。他的前任刘绍勇，于金融危机高潮之际调任东方航空，纵横捭阖“东上航”重组。彼时之南航，拥庞大机队而无用武之地，资产负债率高企至88%。
目前，南航已经拥有412架飞机，机队规模位居全球第五、亚洲第一。但是，南航的机型多达十几种，是机型最复杂的航空公司之一。这意味着，南航不得不为此支付更多的成本。与此同时，空客A380、波音787均将于明年交付南航，为南航筹谋已久的国际市场及北京枢纽提供运力保障。
司献民对此还是一贯的谨慎，“南航在‘十二五’期间仍将以调整结构为主，发展速度可能低于中国民航的平均增速。”谈到整个行业未来五年发展，司献民表示，两年内国内航空业仍能保持较好的盈利格局，随着飞机逐渐交付，供需缺口缩小，未来三至五年不排除出现运力过剩、行业亏损的可能。
《财经》：南航已经成为亚洲机队规模最大的航空公司，这些飞机如何用才能产生最好的效益？
司献民：如何使用好这个庞大的机队确实是我们一直在思考的问题。目前，南航已经拥有412架飞机，机队规模位居全球第五、亚洲第一。但是，南航的机型多达十几种，也是机型最复杂的航空公司之一。这意味着，南航不得不为此支付更多的成本，如飞行员培训成本、维修成本、航材储备成本和管理成本等。为此，国际金融危机以来，南航采取了淘汰落后机型、以新换旧等方法，不断优化机型结构。截止到今年9月，南航共出售 MD82等老旧机型4架，新购A320、A321、B777等客货飞机39架，进一步优化了机队结构，降低了成本，提高了效率。未来3-5年，南航还将进一步把公司的机型简化到5到6种，使公司的规模经济效应充分发挥出来，从而实现更大的经济效益。
《财经》：明年A380即将交付南航，届时南航的运力网络将如何调配？首都机场目前已经有三家实力相当强的外国航空公司运营A380，南航如何与其竞争？
司献民：A380的运营不仅对南航北京枢纽有重要意义，而且对公司整个航线网络的优化也将产生重大影响。早在确定引进A380之初，南航就专门成立了项目小组，研究规划A380运营航线以及与之配套的运营系统。目前，我们正在编织支持A380运营的中转网络，努力提升公司网络质量，确保北京枢纽战略落地。
去年以来，南航以澳洲中转为突破口，航线网络得到了进一步优化。今年上半年，澳洲航线旅客人数同比增长66.1%，客座率同比提高10%，中转人数同比增长272.2%。我们将把澳洲航线的运营经验，推广到A380航线上去，扎实推进战略转型。
在练好内功的同时，南航正积极与兄弟航空公司、天合联盟成员公司商谈代码共享、座位分销等形式的合作，借助外力共同经营A380航线。当前，三家外航不约而同地选择北京作为A380首个通航城市，这说明大家都看好中国的发展前景，看好北京市场。
《财经》：今年是南航的调整结构之年，您在今年6月的股东大会中也说过，南航在“十二五”期间仍将以调整结构为主，发展速度可能低于中国民航的平均增速。具体调哪些内容？目前进展如何？以牺牲增速为代价，南航希望获得怎样的结果？
司献民：当前，调结构既是我国经济宏观调控的关键词，也是南航现阶段工作的着力点。我们在公司年初的工作报告中就提出要：“调结构、推转型、促改革、上水平”。其中，“调结构”的主要内容是，以调整公司负债结构为主线，对资本结构、资产结构、成本结构、收入结构等进行全面的调整和优化资源与市场相匹配，负债水平和财务能力、盈利能力相适应，规模、速度与效益相协调。
经过半年多的努力，目前公司的各项结构调整正在有条不紊地进行。在资本结构方面，我们通过发挥注资的杠杆效应，已成功定向增发筹资107.3亿元，使南航的资产负债率从当前的85%降低到73%左右。在资产结构方面，南航股份通过着手组建信息公司、出售摩天宇航空发动机维修公司，加快清理处理不良资产，进一步盘活了存量资源；在成本结构方面，南航通过科学购租飞机、优化航材储备、降低行政开支等多种方式，有效降低了成本。截止到今年8月，南航在营业收入大幅增长40.3%的情况下，成本仅增长了27.3%，三项费用（销售、管理和财务费用）仅提高了11.6%；在收入结构方面，我们确定的目标是 “逐步提高国际市场收入、货运业务收入在总收入中的比重”。去年底，南航国际市场收入的占比为11.3%，货运业务收入的占比为4.9%。到今年8月，这两项占比分别提高到了13.7%和5.8%。
通过调结构，主要是为了解决南航多年来“大而不强”的问题。我相信，通过积极调结构，南航将逐步从外延式粗放型增长向内涵式集约型发展转变，并最终形成持续盈利能力强、抗风险能力高、服务质量一流、具有国际竞争力的航空产业集团。
《财经》：您如何看待中国民航未来五年的发展？
司献民：今年以来，国内航空公司盈利大幅上升。未来几年，由于我国人均收入正处于消费升级区间，且上升空间较大，所以民航业需求保持较快增长仍是可以预期的。但是，在需求增长的同时，运力也会快速增长。由于盈利上升和预期乐观，国内航空公司都将加快飞机引进速度，供求缺口会很快缩小。所以我们预计，2年内国内航空业仍能保持较好的盈利格局，但未来3-5年不排除出现运力过剩、行业亏损的可能。
未来五年，中国民航业的竞争格局可能不会发生大的变化。从世界范围看，航空运输业市场集中度不断提高已成趋势，欧洲已形成以法荷航、汉莎航和英航为主的市场格局；美国则是美联航、三角航、美洲航和西南航四分天下。从国内看，在东航重组上航、国航并购深航后，中国民航业市场集中度大幅提升的可能性已不大，三大航与海航并存的格局仍将维持较长时间。
未来几年，货运市场和国际市场对于中国民航业的重要性将会上升。今年以来这个趋势已经有所展现，随着我国产业结构调整、居民消费升级和国际旅游业的进一步发展，这个趋势将会更加明显。同时，国内航空运输企业的竞争及高铁的发展也将加快这一过程。
《财经》：伊春空难对于中国民航业的影响体现在哪些方面？
司献民：一是安全管理得到进一步加强。二是行业竞争格局更加稳固。伊春空难后，消费者和民航管理部门都对小型航空运输企业的安全管理表示了担忧，民航局也在酝酿提高新成立航空公司的注册资金门槛，客运航空公司注册资本将由原来的8000万元提高到8亿-10亿元，货运公司将提高到5亿-8亿元，所以，中国民航业市场集中度稳中有升的态势将会更加巩固。
Google Talks With Groupon Are Ended Without Deal
Google Talks With Groupon Are Ended Without Deal
By AMIR EFRATI, GINA CHON and GEOFFREY A. FOWLER
Google Inc.'s multibillion-dollar bid to acquire local deals site Groupon Inc. ended Friday as the two sides broke off talks, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Negotiations between Google and Groupon eated up over the past week but Groupon's board, many of whom are investors, was divided on whether to accept Google's offer. Here, Groupon's headquarters in Chicago.
Negotiations between the two companies heated up over the past week but Groupon's board, many of whom are investors, was divided on whether to accept Google's offer.
The company continued to consider remaining independent and pursuing an IPO in the future, people familiar with the matter have said.
ChicagoBreakingBusiness.com reported earlier that the deal was off. A Groupon spokeswoman didn't immediately respond to a request for comment. A Google spokesman declined to comment.
AllThingsD previously reported that Google offered $5.3 billion for Groupon, with a further $700 million to be based on Groupon's ability to hit certain performance milestones.
Groupon, a closely held company based in Chicago, has grown rapidly by getting local businesses to spend money online to attract consumers, a market Google has sought to crack.
The online market for local business advertising is expected to grow rapidly and is coveted by other large Web companies including Facebook Inc. and Yahoo Inc.
Yahoo also pursued an acquisition of Groupon, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Though both Google and Groupon run online businesses, they had significant differences. Google's army of thousands of highly educated engineers, sales and marketing executives, developed advanced software and sophisticated algorithms for its search engine and advertising initiatives.
Groupon, whose name is a combination of group and coupon, inspired numerous clones of its business model—selling discounted products and services from local merchants.
A potential Google-Groupon deal was controversial among Silicon Valley entrepreneurs and executives, with some feeling that the Groupon model could be copied successfully by others and that the two companies' cultures might not mesh, among other things.
Some financial analysts favored the deal, even at $6 billion, because it would allow Google to get a slice of a fast-growing market, and that Google could market the coupon product to its more than one million advertisers.
Google, whose largest purchase to date was $3.1 billion for online ad provider DoubleClick in 2007, appeared willing to pay a lot more than that to gain a beachhead in the local business space. Such businesses currently spend about $20 billion annually online--including for ads on Google's search engine--but are expected to shell out more than $35 billion by 2014, according to BIA/Kelsey, a local-media advisory firm.
Other Web companies including Yelp.com have made forays into the market, attracting suitors such as Google. Last year Google was in talks to buy Yelp, which has become the first stop for some Internet users in their search for local businesses like restaurants, dentists, taxi cab companies, among others, people familiar with the matter have said. No deal was reached. Yelp generates revenue in part by letting those businesses advertise on the site.
Since then Google has developed its own business-review service similar to Yelp's and has increasingly directed its users to its "Place" pages that give information and reviews about local businesses rather than merely directing them to sites like Yelp or CitySearch.com.
Google, which for years has been amassing business listings, has said more than four million businesses have their own "Place" page on Google to which it directs users.
—Joann S. Lublin contributed to this story.
Write to Amir Efrati at amir.efrati@wsj.com and Gina Chon at gina.chon@wsj.com
Read more: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703989004575653624184245284.html#ixzz17Hewmjye
By AMIR EFRATI, GINA CHON and GEOFFREY A. FOWLER
Google Inc.'s multibillion-dollar bid to acquire local deals site Groupon Inc. ended Friday as the two sides broke off talks, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Negotiations between Google and Groupon eated up over the past week but Groupon's board, many of whom are investors, was divided on whether to accept Google's offer. Here, Groupon's headquarters in Chicago.
Negotiations between the two companies heated up over the past week but Groupon's board, many of whom are investors, was divided on whether to accept Google's offer.
The company continued to consider remaining independent and pursuing an IPO in the future, people familiar with the matter have said.
ChicagoBreakingBusiness.com reported earlier that the deal was off. A Groupon spokeswoman didn't immediately respond to a request for comment. A Google spokesman declined to comment.
AllThingsD previously reported that Google offered $5.3 billion for Groupon, with a further $700 million to be based on Groupon's ability to hit certain performance milestones.
Groupon, a closely held company based in Chicago, has grown rapidly by getting local businesses to spend money online to attract consumers, a market Google has sought to crack.
The online market for local business advertising is expected to grow rapidly and is coveted by other large Web companies including Facebook Inc. and Yahoo Inc.
Yahoo also pursued an acquisition of Groupon, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Though both Google and Groupon run online businesses, they had significant differences. Google's army of thousands of highly educated engineers, sales and marketing executives, developed advanced software and sophisticated algorithms for its search engine and advertising initiatives.
Groupon, led by its quirky co-founder Andrew Mason, hit upon a new business model by mobilizing a force of more than 1,500 sales and customer service employees to call and deal with restaurants, tanning salons, and helicopter tour guides.
Groupon, whose name is a combination of group and coupon, inspired numerous clones of its business model—selling discounted products and services from local merchants.
The model has caught on because it improved on the idea of local online advertising, where a business pays money up front for exposure that will hopefully translate into sales. With Groupon, merchants don't pay for marketing until they get a customer in the door.
A potential Google-Groupon deal was controversial among Silicon Valley entrepreneurs and executives, with some feeling that the Groupon model could be copied successfully by others and that the two companies' cultures might not mesh, among other things.
Some financial analysts favored the deal, even at $6 billion, because it would allow Google to get a slice of a fast-growing market, and that Google could market the coupon product to its more than one million advertisers.
Google, whose largest purchase to date was $3.1 billion for online ad provider DoubleClick in 2007, appeared willing to pay a lot more than that to gain a beachhead in the local business space. Such businesses currently spend about $20 billion annually online--including for ads on Google's search engine--but are expected to shell out more than $35 billion by 2014, according to BIA/Kelsey, a local-media advisory firm.
Other Web companies including Yelp.com have made forays into the market, attracting suitors such as Google. Last year Google was in talks to buy Yelp, which has become the first stop for some Internet users in their search for local businesses like restaurants, dentists, taxi cab companies, among others, people familiar with the matter have said. No deal was reached. Yelp generates revenue in part by letting those businesses advertise on the site.
Since then Google has developed its own business-review service similar to Yelp's and has increasingly directed its users to its "Place" pages that give information and reviews about local businesses rather than merely directing them to sites like Yelp or CitySearch.com.
Google, which for years has been amassing business listings, has said more than four million businesses have their own "Place" page on Google to which it directs users.
—Joann S. Lublin contributed to this story.
Write to Amir Efrati at amir.efrati@wsj.com and Gina Chon at gina.chon@wsj.com
Read more: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703989004575653624184245284.html#ixzz17Hewmjye
Friday, December 3, 2010
从政治局会议新闻稿的文字变化看政策变化(转）
会议认为，今年以来，我国经济社会发展环境极为复杂，各类自然灾害和重大挑战极为严峻。党中央、国务院总揽全局、科学决策，牢牢把握经济工作主动权，坚持实施应对国际金融危机冲击的一揽子计划，加快推进经济发展方式转变，准确把握宏观调控的重点、力度、节奏，全国上下狠抓落实、扎实工作，国民经济实现较快增长，结构调整积极推进，价格水平基本稳定，民生改善成效明显，经济社会向好势头进一步巩固，我国社会主义现代化建设又迈出了坚实的一步。
会议指出，明年我国保持经济平稳较快发展具有不少有利条件，但也面临不少困难和挑战。全党全国要增强忧患意识和风险意识，牢牢抓住并用好重要战略机遇期。
会议强调，做好明年经济社会发展工作，对于“十二五”开好局、起好步，以优异成绩迎接建党９０周年，具有十分重要的意义。要全面贯彻党的十七大和十七届三中、四中、五中全会精神，以邓小平理论和“三个代表”重要思想为指导，深入贯彻落实科学发展观，正确把握国内外形势新变化新特点，以科学发展为主题，以加快转变经济发展方式为主线 (2009保持宏观经济政策的连续性和稳定性)，实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策 (2009 继续实施积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策)，增强宏观调控的针对性、灵活性、有效性，加快推进结构调整，大力加强自主创新，切实抓好节能减排，不断深化改革开放，着力保障和改善民生，巩固和扩大应对国际金融危机冲击成果，保持经济平稳较快发展，促进社会和谐稳定。
会议提出，明年要继续加强和改善宏观调控，统筹当前和长远 (2009 保持宏观政策的基本取向)，把握好政策实施的重点、力度、节奏 (2009 力度、节奏、重点)，既要解决当前突出问题，又要切实推进解决深层次矛盾和化解潜在风险，为长远发展打下良好基础。要进一步扩大国内需求特别是消费需求，努力提高中低收入群众收入，积极扩大商品消费，大力拓展服务消费；发挥好政府投资对经济结构调整的引导作用，促进社会投资稳定增长和结构优化，防止乱铺摊子和盲目重复建设 (2009 保持投资合理增长)。要大力推进现代农业建设，促进农业稳产增产，严格保护耕地(2009 没有)，加强水利基础设施和防灾减灾能力建设，增强科技支撑作用，完善农业扶持政策，加快推进农业信息化、专业化、集约化、产业化发展。要加强市场保障和价格稳定工作，落实“米袋子”省长负责制和“菜篮子”市长负责制，完善市场调控预案，继续整顿和规范市场价格秩序 (2009 搞好农产品市场调控)。要扎实推动产业结构调整，制定出台战略性新兴产业发展规划，加强以企业为主体、以市场为导向、产学研结合的技术创新体系建设，促进企业技术改造和兼并重组，大力扶持中小企业发展。要坚持不懈推进节能减排和应对气候变化工作，加强重点节能环保工程建设，深入推进循环经济，落实控制温室气体排放行动目标，加强应对气候变化国际合作。要稳步提升开放型经济水平，稳定外贸政策，促进对外贸易平稳增长，积极扩大进口，优化利用外资结构，深入实施“走出去”战略。要提高区域发展协调性，加大对革命老区、民族地区、边疆地区、贫困地区的扶持力度，积极推进主体功能区建设，积极稳妥推进城镇化 （2009极推进城镇化和区域协调发展）。要着力推进重点领域和关键环节改革，积极推进财税、金融、投资体制改革，深化农村改革 （2009 没有），做好综合配套改革试点工作。要大力保障和改善民生，坚持更加积极的就业政策 (2009 加大就业促进政策力度)，促进教育均衡发展，加强社会保障薄弱环节建设，基本完成医药卫生体制改革３年重点工作任务，继续深化文化体制改革，大力促进文化繁荣发展，加大保障性安居工程建设力度，做好灾后恢复重建工作，切实抓好安全生产，加强社会管理。
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