Saturday, March 30, 2013

红酒国外售20欧元国内卖千元 中国消费者被指冤大头


红酒国外售20欧元国内卖千元 中国消费者被指冤大头

京港台时间:2013/3/31  消息来源:中国广播网  网友评论 2 条
杏仁黄   秋叶褐  胭脂红  芥末绿  天蓝  雪青  灰  银河白(默认色)

红酒国外售20欧元国内卖千元 中国消费者被指冤大头

北京3月30日消息 据经济之声《天下公司》报道,“中国消费者都是冤大头”--因为这句话,红酒商人周海波出名了。这位身份为意大利红酒文化(大中华区)促进会执行主席、意大利嘉8企业集团董事长的红酒商人自揭家丑,爆料中国红酒市场的种种黑幕,引来各界迅速围观。

  周海波说,一瓶原价10欧元的意大利原装进口红酒,从它出酒厂的那一刻起,是如何通过层层加码,最终以100欧元以上价格售卖的。

  周海波:我们的消费者是冤大头,喝到的酒太贵了,零售价一千块的酒在欧洲的零售价格最多20欧元(不足两百块)。可是中国的零售价要一千块,原因很简单,中国的渠道不够扁平,纵横度太长了。 

  一个自身做红酒的商人,为何要自揭家丑呢?难道他不怕自断财路吗?周海波解释,现在的红酒价格太高了,消费者根本买不起。

  周海波:很多国家的葡萄酒都盯住中国这个市场,包括沿海各个大港口堆积了一大堆的进口葡萄酒。因为价格非常高,销售上也就会不畅,价格高了以后,中国的消费者喝不起葡萄酒,反而造成在中国每一个公司,每一个保税商都有很大的库存。国内相关行业,包括餐饮业、零售批发业应该提出一个非常好的解决方案,让中国消费者能用非常便宜的价格接受到国外的葡萄酒真品。

  周海波的一番言论,在网上引发了巨大的争论。绝大多数的网友都认为,现在红酒价格虚高,这都是经销商倒的鬼。 

  但是这种说法,没有得到经销商的承认。北京一位不愿意透露姓名的红酒经销商说,前些年红酒价差确实非常大,但是最近3年卖红酒的人越来越多,这种酒庄买10欧元,国内销售1000元的情况,已经非常少见了。

  经销商:没他们说的那么邪乎,在国外10欧元拿来的酒合人民币大概82块钱左右。红酒的进口关税是50%,这就合到了120多块钱。此外,在国外装船的费用,船从国外到中国的费用,中国卸船的费用,还有门店的租金,运营成本,国外10欧元的酒在国内卖到300到400元左右,这是合理的价格,卖到1000就有点不合理。前几年大家都不太懂酒,而且红酒消费渠道比较少,所以大家都认为红酒暴利,但是最近这三年做酒的人特别多,所以不存在暴利,要这么暴利都干红酒了。

  当然,正是因为红酒利润高,所以造假、勾兑等问题也接踵而来。以拉菲为例,由于假酒横行搅乱了市场,最终造成了高端红酒市场一片狼藉。 

  先生是一位红酒经销商,他说拉菲卖的最火爆的时候是2009年和2010年,几乎每周都能买出两三箱大拉菲。有些用来投资,有些用来消费,但是现在来买红酒的顾客大多是用做餐酒,千元以上的酒非常难卖了。

  记者:最近半年拉菲卖的有买出去过吗?

  于先生:也有很少,我们平均一个月在1箱左右,2010年我们的酒就卖过1000多瓶一年,到了去年2011年我们大约是降到一年只有400-500百瓶的销量。

  业内人士说,目前全世界拉菲每年的产量大概在20万瓶左右,其中分配到中国的份额不到5万瓶,但是有统计数据显示中国一年消耗的拉菲数量高达200万瓶,也就是说40瓶拉菲当中有39瓶是假酒。

  业内人士:不是价格的问题,它是因为频频出现拉菲有假货,到处都是拉菲来了,它是消费的一种障碍。 

  跟价格骤降的高端红酒形成鲜明对比的是一些低级酒庄的红酒,有些品种的价格甚至逆势上涨,如五级酒庄生产的旁地卡内价格从年初的1200元涨到了1500元左右,涨幅接近20%。

  业内人士:涨一点点的话相对于回报率比较高,因为去年2009年的旁地卡内被评为一百分,在一些小的低级别的酒庄里面也会出现一些投资机会,因为它们本身的价值还不是非常的高,只要被稍微炒一下回报率就比较高。

  酒类专家孙延元坦言,现在的红酒市场已经彻底混乱,如果不加以治理,未来可能就毁了。

  孙延元:我一直认为红酒是未来发展的一个方向,代表着健康、时尚、浪漫、品位,所以说它的价格400块钱来到中国卖1000块钱,特别是高档品牌葡萄酒在中国比较乱,比白酒要乱得多。就是勾兑,根本就不用葡萄,直接用甜水食品添加剂直接就勾兑出来了,造假特别严重。香港和广州葡萄酒造假这么严重,因为利润太高嘛,现在好的葡萄酒卖到一千多,为了这个利润,企业不断的冒险在进行造假。

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

郎咸平:中国金融危机正在爆发 银行首当其冲


郎咸平:中国金融危机正在爆发 银行首当其冲
http://www.creaders.net  2013-03-20 00:53:03  中国证券网  [0条评论,查看/发表评论]
  “中国的金融危机开始爆发,而银行危机已正式爆发”,经济学家郎咸平在3月16日举办的2013年中国(龙岩)区域经济发展高峰论坛上作出的观点。
郎咸平在论坛上表示,银行危机则源于中国债危机的爆发,自2012年4月起,许多地方政府出现债券还款违约问题,云南、四川、上海等省市出现地方政府债券大面积违约现象,利息支付不出。去年6月1日以交通银行股价首先跌破每股净值为起点,中国的银行危机正式爆发。
  中国目前有16家上市银行,其中10家曾经跌破过每股净值,包括交通银行、平安银行、浦发银行、华夏银行、兴业银行、光大银行、中国银行、中信银行、北京银行和南京银行。5家差点跌破每股净值,包括宁波银行、民生银行、招商银行、农业银行和建设银行。世界上其他国家都没有出现过这样的情况,中国是唯一的。
  此外,郎咸平认为,正规的银行正在爆发危机,而非银行体系危机也开始爆发。非银行体系主要是指以民间借贷为主的影子银行,包括地下金融等。早在2012年10月,中国银行行长肖刚曾说,中国银行业乃至金融业未来巨大的风险来自于以银行理财产品为代表 的影子银行。
  “很多地方债务、地产商、制造业商不向银行借钱而向非正规渠道借钱总金额接近30万亿人民币,接受这一庞大数额的影子银行则成为中国另外一个可怕的金融危机。”郎咸平在论坛上如是说。
  在论坛最后,郎咸平唿吁对于城镇化的建设应该自然推动而不是大跃进。建议政府政策回归到民生经济,如何改善制造业企业家的生存投资环境,让资金回归到投资正途上而不是房地产。 (来源:大公网)
  第一大当:房产
  买房意味着什么?意味着你拥有了一个属于自己的房子。是的,你是这样认为,但是在中国你无法拥有这个房子,只是租给你而已。因为房子是你的,地不是你的,只是把土地使用权70年(从现在退70年那是抗日战争时期,谁见过那时候的房子?)。房子通常情况下30年左右就会遇上拆迁或者旧房改造。也就是说你花了买房的钱,却只能得到租房的实际效果。当然这还不是最坏的。最坏的是,当几十年后你发觉上了当!有一群流氓冲进你用一辈子积蓄买下的房子,画上一个大大的“拆”字!然后把你的家当全部当垃圾一样扔出门外,不顾你的苦苦哀求,甚至还在报纸上给你按一个钉子户的臭名,人大众辱骂的时候你就会知道什么叫做绝望!
  就好像60年代,人们必须购买三大件:手表、缝纫机、自行车才算是成功人士才可嫁人娶妻。70年代人们必须购买新四大件:电视、电冰箱、洗衣机、电话才算是出人头地才可娶妻生子一样。记得当年装电话可是要几千块钱一部啊(人均收入不到200元的小城),而北京上海更有上万一部的时候,还得排队买号搭人情,和今天的买房又何其相似?
  第二大当:就业
  当有人终于开始感叹:当年当知青的时候,当有人下岗之后感到没有生路,只能静坐抗议却无人理会,只能沦落街头还别人编首歌嘲笑着人生豪迈,重头再来的时候,你曾想过,他们也曾经和今天的白领一样风光!他们的收入和地位也曾经让周围的人艳羡不已?你可曾想过20年后的今天,你也会和他们一样沦落街头,众叛亲离?!
  有人说嘿!你不知道有失业保险、养老保险、XX保险么?呵呵,我在北京漂泊N年 ,交了无数保险大概有好几万吧,但失业的时候跑断腿也没人给我啥保险,反而很多保险都被冻结了说我交得断断续续的,我简直气得……然而即使是这样,家长们还是疯了一样的把孩子往各种企事业国有单位里送,我身边就经常有这样的例子。我老家一个远房亲戚,找关系托朋友,花了七万块钱通过公开招聘把儿子送进了交警队,干上合同制的police,一个月拿800块人民币,结果第三年被竞争上岗给刷了下来。一家人哭哭啼啼的,我说刷了好,你上那班一辈子挣不回那七万,赶紧先洗洗睡,改明再凑点钱做小生意去吧!没准还能赚点。
  我就想不明白,中国人咋就这么傻?还有那年纪轻轻的小白领们,找工作最好把薪水要高点,别要医疗保险和啥保险,然后自己把钱存起来最保险,将来用得着。
  第三大当:教育
  一张文凭值多少钱?印刷成本两块钱顶了天了。一个老师工资多少?嘿,两个学生的学费足够一学期了!一个班的书本印刷多少钱?两个学生的足够了!嘿!中国教育你凭啥收那么多钱!?
  嘿!老百姓们!我们为啥要上当?因为从小就告诉我们考上秀才光荣。哦对不起,我说错了,是考上大学才光荣。但老百姓从来不去想一想为什么光荣……大学秀才又怎样还不是废物?
  你知道你的孩子是什么人在教么?在中国一般是无法适应社会的人才会沦为一个教师,举个例子。前段时间我因为一个项目的关系,找了几个大学的硕士生做程序。结果有几个人笨得很,非得你守着才干活,而且给个文件明显有一个错别字,也不给改,等你发现了还给你较真,这不是他的错,是你给的就是错的。我还是很心平气和的给他们讲道理:你们必须学会为别人思考,思考别人想要什么结果再去做事情,否则无法在社会上生存。结果那几个人说:我们才不要去社会上,我们考试成绩好的很,学校要我们留校做老师。再说了本来我们就没有什么错,你怎么安排我们怎么做,你不安排我们就不做。这是我们的尊严和原则。我说:如果你们去守门,老板没有安排你下班的时候锁好仓库你就不锁了吗?你心寒吗?以后你的孩子就是在这样的人的指导下学习和成长,你放心吗?难怪现在读大学的同居、逃课、打架、自杀……
  第四大当:买车
  中国人疯了吗?买车?为什么要买车?当然你有了钱花不光了,你爱怎么买就怎么买买车买房,反正油价怎么涨你也花不完钱,房子要拆迁你也不心疼。但是大多数老百姓呢?
  说别买车别买车,可就有无数的人疯了一样的去贷款买。买吧,买完了加息不是?油价涨疯了不是?停车又贵了不是?后悔了不是?新车一上路就掉价了,卖也卖不掉了不是?
  告诉你,油价还得涨。一定要涨到和美元一样的油价。嘿嘿!你老拿老美的1/10的收入,养和人家一个价的汽油。我看你还得瑟不?
  最后说一句,每个人都不傻,都是从小被愚民教育给弄傻了。傻点不要紧,但性命攸关的事儿你还是要紧着点,多盘算盘算经济利益之间的关系!别到头来,房产一跌,油价一涨,交了半辈子钱拿了毕业证书还是啥啥不会干,交了几十年苛捐杂税还啥啥福利没有。你亏的可不仅仅是差价几十万。
  当然有的人会说:你连个房子都不买,指定结不了婚。我心想:我是没有,你以为你有啊?有人说租房子不划算,租完了还是别人的。嘿嘿,你以为买房子还是几十年贷款,还清了就是你的了啊……
  “中国99%的白领以及他们的家庭即将面临破产。而且是必然破产!无路可逃!这件事可能是发生在未来2-10年。你可以尽量去怀疑这个数字。但它必然发生,绝非危言耸听。” 就如我预言中国国营企业职工必然失业一样,在当时来说没人信。但确实会发生。因为在中国这样一个发展中国家,其必然不断的以通货膨胀和改革手段来换取经济的发展。而每一次改革所带来的阵痛都是由百姓来承担的。无论是上山下乡时迷茫的知青们还是改革开放带来的大量国企纷纷倒闭时大量下岗职工。如果他们能有一定的前瞻性的话,那么我想他们也许会为自己留一点后路。但是由于过分相信文件以及过分相信生活不会突变,所以才导致了他们的人生悲剧。
  有人说政府不会坐视不理白领破产,其实政府当然不愿意。
  可有的事情……怎么说呢。想想当年的下岗职工吧。引起了那么大的社会震动。又能怎样呢?今天的白领明天破产的时候也那样而已。
  而改革开放20多年来,中国的经济发展快速腾飞。但旧的体制并没有完全更改。各种重要行业依然施行的是政府垄断机制在运转。如:银行,金融,冶金,能源,信息,运输,医疗,教育,土地。在改革开放初期我国不可能对这些东西进行全方面的改革开放。但到了今天,垄断经营所带来的矛盾日益突出。
  首当其冲的就是房地产。由于我国的法制不健全,尤其是金融以及改革领域里出现了各种失误导致房地产节节攀升。随着房地产的增加以及外来人口向大城市集中。所以城市新民工也就是所谓的“白领”收入表面上也在提升,以北京为例3000-15000元人民币的月薪处处可见。但这一部分收入主要用于支付租房或还贷。为了深入地了解为什么99%的白领家庭会破产,我们就必须先了解房价为什么会这么高?高在哪里?资金是如何运转的?这里的白领指买房或者准备买房族)以及发展趋势带来的相关效应。本文会分三个阶段向你阐述。
  1:导致房价爆涨的第一个因素:银行竞争下的贷款开放。
  其实房价的爆涨的因素主要是因为百姓在替政府所犯下的错误买单。比如以前一个开发商通过某银行贷款了1000万开发了一个房子。如果还不起那他就倒霉了,因为所有的银行都是一个体系,你欠了钱没还就再也没有翻身的机会。但是中国在银行改革的基础上开了一条口子,为了各银行之间的竞争所以把工行,农行,建设银行等等全部独立运营。这本来是好事。但问题是这些银行都不是私有的,而是国家的。
  我们不难想象。当一个开发商从工行贷款1000万的后果。他只需要用500万来开发房子,然后把售价提升,再把这个开发中的房子按他的售价标准抵押从农行再贷款2000万,然后再用这2000万中的1000万开发一套售价更高的房子来找建设银行抵押贷款4000万。就是这样一个滚雪球的疯狂贷款模式。
  房子卖不卖得出去不重要,关键是房价要高,不得降价。反正银行的钱不是私人的,所以稍微疏通一下行长加之又有“合法的”高零售价的楼盘做抵押所以自然就越来越好从银行贷款。
  那么这样造成的结果就是,房子价格只攀不跌!因为不能跌!一跌银行贷出去的款就再也回不来了。这可是政府的银行,政府的钱!所以为了堵住这个资金黑洞一些被收买的专家、媒介便开始疯狂制造舆论用各种舆论手段威逼利诱人买房子。
  比如土地资源严重紧张,再不买房将来就只能住在郊区呀之类的。导致人们不得不去买房。其实住不了市中心这种情况根本不可能发生,城市居民是一个新老替换的过程,要上班的住城里,老人退休喜欢住郊区。只要人口不爆炸就不会出现上班族住不了市中心的情况。虽然这些舆论造成了很多人买房子,但是仅仅是这样,房价还没有高到现在这样的离谱。紧接着政府又犯了第二个错误。
  2:导致房价爆涨的第二个错误:中国特色的按揭。
  按揭本来是一种西方很流行的制度,也很合适。但这个制度一旦运用到中国就有问题了。因为从大的体制上来说,所有银行都是国家的,而不是私人的。所以贷款这个关口就不可能控制得住。只要文件上说得过去,人们就能贷到款。
  为了早日缓解第一个错误所带来的资金黑洞。政府开始实行个人按揭制度来售房。还经常举什么美国老太太和中国老太太的例子来诱惑人们去按揭。确实有人按揭了,而且是疯狂的按揭。只要和银行有点“路子”的人。他们先按揭一套80万的房子,自己出10万首付然后再从银行贷出70万。之后再把这个房子抬高价格到180万出售。这个时候他们的亲戚或者老爸老妈再去买下,也用按揭的方式自己出首付30万再从银行贷出150万。然后就不管了。他们不还贷款怎么办?银行爱收不收。反正根据合同我还不上钱你可以收走房子,我们两不相欠。
  所以转了一圈,抬高了几倍价格的房子又回到了政府、回到银行手里。这就解释了为什么很多新楼盘刚开始修就被“炒房团”买走了。他们炒的不是赌房子会升值,而是拿了房子去收拾银行。
  银行拿到这个房子怎么办?更不敢降价了。只好再加点价接着卖。所以普通老百姓现在根本别想买到真正合理价格的房子!即使你直接从开发商手里买来的房子都说不定已经转了好几次手又回到银行以及开发商手里的了。说句不好听的,现在8000/平的房子里,只有2500才是房价,有5500都是决策错误带来的资金黑洞!也就是说你正在替人任劳任怨地擦屁股。
  3:第三个问题:白领家庭何时破产?
  我们研究了房子价格为什么会涨,再来研究一下中国城市所谓的白领家庭破产的必然性。
  首先国外白领收入确实是高,但是高得有价值;而中国所谓的白领则普遍素质较差。中国企业内耗严重。人人相轻,人人顽固。所以难怪外资企业一进入中国大陆市场就开始惊唿:“在中国办企业招不到人!”对此我也深有体会。那有人会说:“既然现在的白领不值这个身价,那水木周平你说说为什么他们还能拿到这样的薪水呢?” 其实,这是由于房地产的火爆造成的一个量子效应。
  银行损失的资金大量的经过少数人之手流向了市场。这些人开始在中国的其他领域疯狂投资。因为他们自己也知道房地产就快要崩盘了。他们这样一轮又一轮的投资热潮正在快速消化这些资金,他们投资互联网,投资高新技术,投资娱乐,投资很多很多。但起码付出的工资要够员工付房子月租或者月供吧。所以正是因为房价的高涨造就了中国城市人口工资水平的相对提升。
  不相信你自己算算你所在的城市白领阶级平均收入一旦交完每月的房钱,手上还能剩多少钱?我想这个问题就不用我再罗嗦了吧。大家心理有数。所以我可以说一旦房地产崩盘紧接着崩溃的就是你的工资。
  有很多很多我认识的白领们都购了房。他们的算盘很简单:“两口子除开各种税收保险每月纯收入还12000。交3000房钱算什么?我还能再买一套呢!”是不算什么。但因为房子贵所以什么东西都贵。吃的贵,交通贵,学费贵,医疗费用更贵!!!所以交了房钱你再除开生活费用就基本上一分钱存不下来,就算存点也赶不上正常的通货膨胀率。问题是如果能一直保持这个现状的话,理论上说应该没事。你这二十年赚来的钱正好可以弥补政府的两个错误带来的亏损。
  但问题也出在这里 。随着WTO5年缓冲期的结束,大量外资通讯,银行,医疗,保险等等公司都会陆续进入中国。到时候没有人能阻止你把钱存入花旗,存入汇丰。请问一下到那个时候谁愿意把钱存在呆帐坏帐如此之多的中国国有银行呢?即使政府再怎么采取措施也可能挤兑,所以到时候会发生什么现在还很难说。但有一点可以肯定的是到时这些中国国有银行的压力将变得非常巨大。贷款就会难上加难,因为银行根本无钱可贷!同时大量具备高素质人材的外资企业进入中国必定带来市场的强烈冲击和大量现有企业的倒闭以及白领失业。也就是说。一旦外资企业加入竞争,中国现有的99%的白领都将面临大环境下的就业压力!
  而且外资银行一旦积累了资金开始投资房地产,那么由于它们是正常的操作流程所以造出来的房子就会便宜,其必然拉动全国房地产大幅下跌。如我刚才所说,房价一跌,紧跟着跌的就是你所在的企业的工资收入!可你之前买的房子还贷价格并不会降低或者减少,所以你将无力支付高昂的贷款。那么你的的房子会被银行收走,你的存款会被直接冻结。所以未来中国城市中的白领们最大的可能是和几十年前的中国国有企业职工一样。辛辛苦苦二十年,到头来竹篮打水一场空!
  如何避免破产?
  看到这里您应该明白,不要买房是一个避免破产的好办法。不过我还要提醒你,为了托住楼市不跌,他们还有个办法,那就是鼓吹老百姓不买房就不是个爷们儿!您别说,这还真有点效果。现在的人一张口第一句就是:“你有房吗?”似乎你没房就是个太监一样。我实在是气得连骂人的力气都没有了。还有人在百度水木周平这个帖吧里发帖说:“不买房子你住哪里?”我就奇怪了,住和买有必然联系吗?在中国一个土地都不属于你的房子卖给你和租给你有什么区别?
  更别提土匪一样的物业和把人不当人的强制拆迁!这不纯粹是“皇帝的新装”吗?不过既然WTO中已经说明出版业和传媒业中国还是不对外开放的。那么舆论救市就会成为政府和开发商手中的最后一张王牌。
  所以我们在面对很多花言巧语的时候还是自己多动动脑子。以后我们听到的房产的鬼话会越来越多,越来越令人发指!比如最近就有砖家在鼓吹房价不贵时都说:“即使年薪5万,两口子也是一年10万,5年就50万。所以房价当然不贵。”我奇怪的是居然有人点头称是? 也许对于这种或者此类已经进化到了不吃不喝不病不穿不动且爹娘早已死绝不用赡养的砖家来说也许还真是那么回事。所以大家注意提高警惕。
  结束语:
  已经买房或者准备买房的白领一族必定随着房价的崩溃而崩溃,那会是一个缓慢发生的过程。短则两年,长则十年。但这是不可逆转的趋势。所以中国 99%城市白领一族已经面临破产一说绝非危言耸听!今天你往银行交的每一分房钱都是替政府替炒房者补洞,只有一小部分是真正的房钱。明天大环境一变,你没有那么多资金来补洞的时候就会被市场和银行一脚踢回老家,换一批新人来接着补。不信?走着瞧呗!PS:为什么我说99%这个数,是因为根据我的了解99% 的人一旦月薪过5000就开始买房,甚至3000,4000都买。小俩口什么都不明白这样买下去人生一定会很惨。我只是替他们感到忧伤。当然如果你是那 1%的智者,多劝救他们吧。独乐乐不如众乐乐。
  郎咸平:1,穷人缺什么:表面缺资金,本质缺野心,脑子缺观念,机会缺了解,骨子缺勇气,改变缺行动,事业缺毅力。2,世界上最愚蠢的人是非用自己撞得头破血流的经验才叫经验。3,年轻是本钱,但不努力就不值钱。4,富就富在不知足,贵就贵在能脱俗。贫就贫在少见识,贱就贱在没骨气。

Friday, March 8, 2013

Pair trading strategy : how to use "PairTrading" package


Pair trading strategy : how to use "PairTrading" package

October 25, 2011
By 
(This article was first published on My Life as a Mock Quant in English, and kindly contributed to R-bloggers)

Mr.Ishikawa(my old friend) and I developed "PairTrading" package, and uploaded it on CRAN.
This article shows you how you can use it.


The pair trading is a market neutral trading strategy and gives traders a chance to profit regardless of market conditions. The idea of this strategy is quite simple.
 1 : Select two stocks(or any assets) moving similarly
 2 : Short out-performing stock, buy under-performing one
 3 : If "spread"(price difference between two stocks) converge, close your position.


So, Let's start to explain how to use this package.
(This example is in PDF manual of this package)

0: Install & load package
You can install and load "PairTrading" package via CRAN in the same way as other packages.


> install.packages("PairTrading")
> library(PairTrading)


1: Load sample data
We prepared sample stock price data in our package. You can load it by using "data" command.


> #load sample stock price data
> data(stock.price)


2: Estimate parameters
Next, We extract two stock prices(from 31 Mar, 2008) and estimate parameters.

> #select 2 stocks
> price.pair <- stock.price[,1:2]["2008-03-31::"]
> #Estimate parameters & plot spread
> reg <- EstimateParameters(price.pair, method = lm)

At the moment, we have only normal linear regression method to estimate parameters, but we will develop more sophisticated method in the future.The estimation result contains the following contents.

> str(reg)
List of 3
 $ spread     :An ‘xts’ object from 2008-03-31 to 2011-08-05 containing:
  Data: num [1:821, 1] 0.26 0.271 0.294 0.275 0.255 ...
 - attr(*, "dimnames")=List of 2
  ..$ : NULL
  ..$ : chr "7203"
  Indexed by objects of class: [Date] TZ: 
  xts Attributes:  
 NULL
 $ hedge.ratio: num 0.285
 $ premium    : num 6.34
The most important thing in this estimation is "spread", then we try to plot it.


> plot(reg$spread)




And, you can check the stationarity of that by using "IsStationary" function.
This function return the result of two types unit root test.

> #check stationarity
> IsStationary(reg$spread, 0.1)
 PP.test adf.test 
    TRUE     TRUE 
( augmented Dickey–Fuller test (ADF) and Phillips-Perron test)


3: Estimate parameters for back-test
To run back-test, you have to estimate parameters historically by using "EstimateParametersHistorically"function. This function do something like "rolling regression" to estimate parameters. This point is different from "EstimateParameter" function.


> #estimate parameters for back test
> params <- EstimateParametersHistorically(price.pair, period = 180)
> #create & plot trading signals
> str(params)
An ‘xts’ object from 2008-12-18 to 2011-08-05 containing:
  Data: num [1:642, 1:3] 0.065 0.0577 0.0396 0.0136 0.021 ...
 - attr(*, "dimnames")=List of 2
  ..$ : NULL
  ..$ : chr [1:3] "spread" "hedge.ratio" "premium"
  Indexed by objects of class: [Date] TZ: 
  xts Attributes:  
 NULL



4: Create trading signal
Next, you create trading singal using estimated spread. "Simple" function give a very simple trading strategy(If The spread is more(less) than specified value, you will buy(sell))


> #create & plot trading signals
> signal <- Simple(params$spread, 0.05)
> barplot(signal,col="blue",space = 0, border = "blue",xaxt="n",yaxt="n",xlab="",ylab="")
> par(new=TRUE)
> plot(params$spread)

In this case, The trading signal is drawn as below.


Last, you can check the performance of pair trading by using "Return" function.


> #performance
> return.pairtrading <- Return(price.pair, lag(signal), lag(params$hedge.ratio))
> plot(100 * cumprod(1 + return.pairtrading))

In this case, our strategy seems to work correctly :-)



6: Conclusion and remarks
Pair trading is well-known trading strategy, and I introduced "PairTrading" package in this article.
We would like to modify this package to be more useful and fit in real-market.
If you have any suggestion, please let me know.

And we created a presentation slide to explain the basic concept of pair trading.
It may be useful for you to understand the basic concept of pair trading if you are interested in it.

Wednesday, March 6, 2013

S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles


S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles

I track the industry analysts’ annual consensus earnings estimates of the S&P 500 for the current year and the coming year on a weekly basis. I call them “Earnings Squiggles” because that’s what they look like. As of last week, industry analysts estimated that the S&P 500 will earn $112.98 this year and $125.91 in 2014.

The estimates for 2012 and 2013 mostly fell all last year, yet the S&P 500 rose 13.4%. I have the Squiggles data back to 1979 on a monthly basis. More often than not, they tend to trend down; yet more often than not, the market has trended higher. That’s because the market discounts 12-month forward consensus expected earnings. A good proxy for this concept is forward earnings, i.e., the time-weighted average of consensus estimates for the current and coming years. It tends to be a good 12-month leading indicator for actual profits, with one important exception: Analysts don’t see recessions coming until we all do too.

The bottom line is that the bottom line for S&P 500 companies on a 12-month (and on a 52-week) forward basis rose to a record high at the beginning of this year even though analysts have been lowering their estimates for 2012 and 2013.

Today's Morning Briefing: Snakes, Squids, & Squiggles. (1) Seeing patterns. (2) Let the earnings season begin. (3) Cobra formation in estimated and actual earnings. (4) Earnings surprises for the sectors tend to be surprising. (5) The guidance myth. (6) Squid formation: Biggest downward revisions for Materials, IT, Financials, and Industrials. (7) Market often goes up even when Earnings Squiggles go down. (8) Another record high for forward earnings. (9) Record highs for MidCap and SmallCap stocks too. (10) A good year for auto dealers and retailers. (More for subscribers.)

ETF Leverage Lesson, With A 25% Profit Prize!


Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More...)
The focus of this article is not our usual comprehensive set of comparisons of nine or ten different groups of Exchange Traded Funds, but will put its attention just on those ETFs that have leverage built into their structure, so that their prices can reflect multiples of the price change being experienced by the underlying instrument(s) (usually an index) that is being tracked by the ETF.
These creations, initially introduced several years ago by ProShares, come in two flavors, long position multipliers and short position ones. The effects are created by employing derivative securities to produce a (2x) magnifying impact, and margin treatments or other techniques to further extend the achievement to a (3x) result.
Originally the leverage markets were imagined to be of public (individual investor) interest, much as margin borrowing can attract certain stock investors. But the vendors (and the customers) quickly learned that for the leverage effect to be maintained over time and through progressive price changes, the proportions of contributing elements (derivatives) needed to be adjusted on a daily basis.
The adjustment need is more evident with inverse (short-structured) ETFs than with levered-long ETFs tracking indexes that maintain fairly persistent upward trends. But the presence of the problem and the need for its correction by the vendors on a daily basis, can make it unsuitable for any long-term investor, and it becomes particularly detrimental in certain cases where inverse ETFs are being held for several days in turbulent times.
Many individual investors have come to the conclusion that inverse-levered ETFs are a "don't try this at home" proposition.
Instead, they are typically sought by investment professionals as hedges or other portfolio engineering tools, on a one-day-at-a-time balancing act, where, properly used, they can provide certain risk-management benefits.
Levered-long ETFs, in limited-volatility situations, can often provide exceptionally attractive returns, where market direction has beencorrectly foreseen.
Here is an illustration of how well leveraged-long ETFs of the Dow-Jones 30 Industrials Index (DJIA) have fared over the past year.

(Click to enlarge)
This picture shows the percentage price changes continuously since early March of 2012, in the DJIA index in purple, the ProShares Ultra Dow 30 (DDM) in blue, the ProShares Ultra Pro Dow 30 (UDOW) in green, and the S&P 500 (SPX) for later comparisons, in red. DDM is a (2x) of the DJIA, and UDOW is a (3x) of the DJIA. DJIA and SPX are not leveraged.
On the right-hand vertical scale it can be seen that when the DJIA and SPX dipped briefly by -5% between May and June of last year, positions bought at the beginning of March in the DDM fell more than 2x-5%, or about -12%, and those in the UDOW were down more than 3x-5%, or about -19%. The same positions later in September-October while the DJIA rose by some 5% were up by about +10% in the 2x DDM, and by 15% in the 3x UDOW, as intended.
Currently, the DJIA is about 9% ahead of its year-ago start, and the 2x DDM is up 20%. The 3x UDOW is ahead by 30%. The leverage is working well here, and rescaling the instruments to maintain daily change proportions is not a problem; if anything, it provides a little bonus - at least at the moment.
Now let's look at what happens to short leveraged (inverse) ETFs in an unfavorable (to them) market period. This picture shows the S&P500 index (SPX) in yellow, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index (RUT) in blue, as the base-line long index comparisons. The inverse ETFs shown are ProShares Short Russell 2000, (RWM), an unleveraged short of the RUT index in green, ProShares Ultra (2x) Short Russell 2000 (TWM) in red, ProShares Ultra Pro (3x) short Russell 2000 (SRTY) in purple and the Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear ETF (TZA) in gold, essentially a (3x) duplicate of SRTY.

(Click to enlarge)
Since the inverse ETF prices should go up in a down market, they go down in an up market, like we have here for the most part. Remember, in May-June of 2012 the S&P declined -5% and the RUT a bit more, about -7-8%. In that period the short-structured ETFs rose by about equal amounts for RWM, double for TWM, and triple for SRTY and TZA. So far, little problem from the logic.
But a skip to the present clarifies the problem. With the RUT up a bit more than 12% over a year earlier, the RWM should be off by that amount instead of by -18%. The 2x TWM is down -30% instead of -25%, and the SRTY and TZA are down a crippling -45% or more, instead of "only" a staggering -35%.
Leverage always cuts both ways, but it looks like the back (short) edge of the leveraged-ETF broadsword is more dangerous than the front edge. Better not to mess with it anywhere, let alone "at home" unless you are an experienced (supervised) professional short-term trader.
Still, there are often enticing and attractive twists to what is ordinarily apparent. There is a very productive inverse ETF that has done extremely well during this past year, and longer. It is the ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Future ETF (SVXY). It has done so well because its underlier goes down when the market goes up. So it is a double-negative, a short of a short.
This picture (purple line) of its past-year relationship to the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in yellow and to the leveraged long SPX ETFs, the ProShares Ultra (2x) S&P500 (SSO) in blue, the ProShares Ultra Pro (3x) S&P500 (UPRO) in green, and the Direxion Daily Large Cap Bull 3x, (SPXL) in red, should be of particular interest as we discuss leverages.

(Click to enlarge)
The VIX index is a measure of the uncertainty embedded in and implied by the option prices being paid at each market moment on SPX index options. This is more extensively discussed here (SA article).
As explained there, options are really insurance policies on the future movement of prices. They utilize the expertise of investment professionals to provide asymmetric risk protection at economical cost, another way of describing limited-liability leverage.
A quick study of the picture above reveals that in the past year it was possible to lose money in a position in SVXY, but it didn't happen very often or by very much. One had to be very unlucky. Early in the year a +50% gain could have turned into maybe a -10% loss briefly in the June market dip. But after that it was just "hang onto your hat!"
Of course, after the fact it all looks so easy. But after you have doubled your money by September, what makes you hang on for another 50% gain? And did you get out before it started to sour in the past couple of weeks? So, what do we do now? Who knows?
As they used to say on the "radio" (before TV got here), "Who knows? - The Shadow does!"
The market "Shadow" is that community of folks that make livings at a scale that most of us would love to enjoy, even if only for a couple of years - the market-makers. The joy of this deal is that not only is there an ETF that produces enormous profit potential in good years, there are options regularly traded on the ETF. Buy the options? When? What expirations? How long (in price gains) to hold them?
Are we getting greedy? Is greed really good? How about getting smart in the process?
The smart approach is to let the options tell us when to buy the ETFs (whose prices do not decay just because of the passage of time), and tell us how far (in price) to hold them. Also after we get off, the options can tell us whether we should take the ETF for another ride, when to do it, and for how far this time?
It could be done. It is being done.

(Click to enlarge)
(used with permission)
This picture reveals how daily market-maker SVXY expectations have evolved over the past 6 months.
The market-maker activity in SVXY shares (currently over 1 million shares a day) produces hedging that leads to very useful price range forecasts, as suggested above.
Most recently when approaching the 90 price level, the extended downside price exposure warnings (from the heavy current-price dots to the bottom of the vertical forecast range lines) got sufficiently fulfilled such that new buy opportunities were flagged in the mid 70's shortly thereafter.
As outlined in earlier articles we regularly test the market-makers daily forecasts against what has actually transpired in the markets over the next three months.
We get indications of what the odds for higher and lower prices are, at every level of balance between upside prospects and drawdown exposure, and measures of how big the issue's ballpark may be, in terms of average gain day sizes have been, and what were the worst drawdown experiences encountered.
Then we put possible buys to the test of a 3-month holding limit, with high-price-forecast sell targets if reached before that deadline.
Using Friday's forecast of a +18% upside and a possible -5% drawdown, a Range Index of 22, prior outlooks of a similar balance only occurred seven times in the past year. All reached their sell targets in six weeks or less, averaging gains of +25% just during those holding periods.
Seven results is too small a sample to be very comforting, so we took a Range Index of 40, larger than any currently being encountered, and went back to the earliest available forecast almost a year ago. Using that imbalance of only one and a half times as much upside as downside, we have a larger sample of 41 prior outcomes with our time-limited strategy.
There, all 41 but one reached their sell targets within seven weeks and had an average holding period of less than 4 weeks (despite the one at over 8 weeks). The profits averaged a bit over 21%, which is a day rate of over 1% (or some 1200% a year). Here is the test trade log showing the details:

(Click to enlarge)
Lines through 41 show buy guidances that would be closed out by now. Lines 42-46 have only recently been instituted and are open positions, as indicated by spaces in the Sell Date and Sell @ (price) columns. The open positions have been marked to the market's last available price of $77.90, with cumulative results brought forward. Average gains including the open positions of +19% in less than 16 days are still a day rate of over 1%.
The boldfaced data of line 41 shows that gains of 21+% could have been captured this way in holding periods averaging less than 17 days. A Mafia money-lender charging 500% a year rates to lend the capital for investment would still have left the borrower over 2/3rds of the gains, and his/her knees intact.
If the exception proves the rule, then the SVXY short-ETF appears to have great current appeal as a long purchase. But don't get confused. You would be buying (not selling) an instrument designed to go down (not up) when what it tracks goes up (not down). And you might use the forecasts of higher (not lower) prices to tell when to sell this strange animal out of your portfolio of other long positions. What fun!
For gosh sakes, don't even think about hedging such a decision! Just go make some money!

Self Employed Roth 401k


Self Employed Roth 401k


The 2013 Self Employed 401k contribution limit is $51,000 or $56,500 if age 50 or older (2012 limit is $50,000 and $55,500 if age 50 or older). The annual contributions into a Self Employed 401k consists of 2 parts, a salary deferral contribution and a profit sharing contribution.

Roth 401k Salary Deferral

Participants in a Self Employed 401k have the option to make Roth 401k contributions only with the salary deferral portion of the Self Employed 401k. In 2013 the Roth 401k salary deferral contribution limit is $17,500 and $23,000 if age 50 or older (2012 salary deferral limit is $17,000 and $22,500 if age 50 or older). Self Employed Roth 401k salary deferral contributions are not tax deductible, but withdrawals are tax free after age 59 1/2 provided the 5 year rule is satisfied.

Profit Sharing

A profit sharing contribution of up to 25% of compensation can also be made into a Self Employed 401k. The profit sharing portion of the Self Employed 401k contribution is not eligible to be made as a Roth contribution. Profit sharing contributions are made pre-tax and are tax deductible.
Note: The combined 2013 salary deferral and profit sharing contributions in a Self Employed 401k cannot exceed $51,000 or $56,500 if age 50 or older (2012 limit is $50,000 and $55,500 if age 50 or older).

Roth 401k versus Traditional 401k comparison

 Roth 401k (after tax contributions)Traditional 401k (pre-tax contributions)
Maximum annual contribution (under age 50)$17,500 - 2013 $17,500 - 2013
Maximum annual contribution (age 50 or older)$23,000 - 2013$23,000 - 2013
Tax treatment of contributionsAfter tax (not tax deductible)Pre-tax (tax deductible)
Tax treatment of distributionsDistributions are tax free if five years have passed since the first contribution AND there is a qualifying event (attainment of age 59½, death or disability)Distributions are taxed as ordinary income and can be withdrawn after age 59 ½ without IRS penalty.
Required minimum distributions (RMDs)Must begin at age 70½ unless rolled to a Roth IRA. If rolled over to an Roth IRA then the money is not subject to RMD rules until the death of IRA ownerMust begin at age 70½
RolloversCan rollover to another Roth 401k or a Roth IRACan rollover to another traditional 401k or a Traditional IRA or Rollover IRA

 

Self Employed Roth 401k FAQs

What is a Self Employed Roth 401k?

The Self Employed Roth 401k is a retirement plan for the self employed that allows non tax deductible salary deferral contributions that grow tax free and are withdrawn tax free at retirement. Starting January 1, 2006, the Roth 401k salary deferral option became available in a Self Employed 401k. This plan known as a "Self Employed Roth 401k" combines features of Roth IRAs, but with higher contribution limits.

What are the differences between making pre-tax versus after-tax (Roth) contributions in my Self Employed 401k?

Self Employed  401k salary deferral contributions can be made as Roth 401k (after tax) or Traditional 401k (pre-tax).
The basic difference between a Roth 401k and a Traditional 401k is that the Roth 401k is funded with after-tax contributions while the Traditional 401k is funded with pre-tax contributions. In other words, with a Roth 401k you pay taxes today in return for a tax-free withdrawals in retirement. Traditional 401k contributions are tax deductible and are made pre-tax so you save taxes today, but withdrawals are taxed in retirement. As a result, the choice between the two 401k options comes down to whether you believe your income taxes rates will be higher or lower in retirement. If you believe your income tax rates will be higher at retirement then making Roth 401k contributions may be more advantageous. Also, there may be some estate tax benefits of a Roth 401k because in the case of death, the Roth 401k assets are tax free to your heirs.

How is the Self Employed Roth 401k different from a Roth IRA?

A Self Employed Roth 401k is similar to a Roth IRA because it allows after-tax contributions to grow tax-free until retirement when they are withdrawn tax free. However, a Self Employed Roth 401k allows much higher annual contribution amounts than a Roth IRA. In 2013 a Roth IRA has a $5,500 limit and $6,500 limit if age 50 or older. The 2013 contribution limit for the Self Employed Roth 401k is $17,500 and $23,000 if age 50 or older.

What are the advantages of the Self Employed Roth 401k over the Roth IRA?

  1. Regardless of income, everyone qualifies for a Self Employed Roth 401k. In 2013, you can’t fully contribute to a Roth IRA if your adjusted gross income exceeds $178,000 if you file a joint tax return with your spouse. If you are married filing jointly and your earned income is between $178,001 and $188,000, your 2013 Roth IRA contribution limit phases out. In 2013, you can’t contribute fully to a Roth IRA if your adjusted gross income exceeds $112,000 if you file as single or head of household. If your earned income is somewhere between $112,001 and $127,000, your 2013 Roth IRA contribution limit phases out.
  2. Higher contribution limits are permitted with a Self Employed Roth 401k than a Roth IRA. For 2013 participants can contribute up to $17,500 to a Roth 401k ($23,000 if age 50 or older), but they can only contribute $5,500 ($6,500 if age 50 or older) into a Roth IRA.

How much can I contribute to a Self Employed Roth 401k annually?

The 2013 Self Employed Roth 401k contribution limit is $17,500 and $23,000 if age 50 or older (2012 salary deferral limit is $17,000 and $22,500 if age 50 or older).

Can the profit sharing portion of a Self Employed 401k also be made with after-tax (Roth) contributions?

No. The profit sharing contribution can not be made as a Roth contribution.
A profit sharing contribution of up to 25% of compensation can also be made into a Self Employed 401k. The profit sharing portion of the Self Employed 401k contribution is not eligible to be made as a Roth contribution. Profit sharing contributions are made pre-tax and are tax deductible.
In 2013 the combined salary deferral and profit sharing contributions in a Self Employed 401k cannot exceed $51,000 ($56,500 if age 50 or older).

When can I withdraw from my designated Roth 401k account?

At age 59 1/2, or later provided the 5 year rule is satisfied. An exception to the age 59 1/2 rule occurs in the event of disability or death (in which case the proceeds are tax free to your heirs).

What is the “five-year rule”?

Assets may be withdrawn tax-free from a Self Employed Roth 401k provided the account has been established for five or more years and you are age 59 1/2 or older. An exception is made in case of disability or death.

Who is best suited for a Self Employed Roth 401k?

The Self Employed Roth 401k is a new salary deferral option which is useful for a wide variety of people. See if any of the scenarios below apply to you.

1) You anticipate being in a higher income tax bracket in retirement than your current income tax bracket

If this is the case then it may make sense to make after tax Roth 401k contributions and pay income taxes now while in a lower tax bracket. Then while in retirement the assets can be withdrawn tax free when you are in a higher tax bracket.

2) You are relatively young and earn a lower income now, but expect to earn a much higher income and expect to be in a higher tax bracket in the future

If you expect your income to increase dramatically over your career, you may find contributing to the Roth feature today to be very advantageous, as you are in a lower tax bracket now than you will be in the future. Also, if you are many years from retirement, you could choose a Roth 401k as your best option as you expect your retirement plan to grow tax-free to a significant nest egg that can be withdrawn tax-free, more than compensating for the taxes paid when young and lower paid.

3) You had an usual year and your income decreased considerably and as a result you are in a lower tax bracket this year than your expected tax bracket in retirement.

You may want to take this opportunity to make Roth 401k contributions since you are in an usually low tax bracket this year.

4) Retirement investors who feel federal income tax rates will increase in the future

If you believe the government will increase tax rates in the future, then you may be better off making Roth 401k contributions and paying income taxes now. That way you would be paying taxes now at a lower tax rate and receiving the distributions federal tax free in the future at retirement when income tax rates are higher. Current income tax rates are low by historical standards.

5) You already have considerable assets in traditional pre-tax retirement accounts

In that case you may want to diversify your future tax liability and invest salary deferral contributions into the Roth 401k. That way some of your retirement nest egg can be withdrawn tax free at retirement. That is especially beneficial if tax rates rise in the future.

6) You earn a high income and would like to make Roth IRA contributions, but can’t based on the Roth IRA income limits

  • Roth IRAs have income limits, but Self Employed Roth 401k plans have no income limits.
  • Everyone qualifies for a Self Employed Roth 401k. In 2013 you can’t contribute fully to a Roth IRA if your adjusted gross income exceeds $178,000 if you file a joint tax return with your spouse and $112,000 if you file as single or head of household.
  • Higher contribution limits are permitted with a Self Employed Roth 401k than a Roth IRA regardless of income.
  • In 2013 participants can contribute up to $17,500 to a Roth 401k ($23,000 if age 50 or older). 2013 Roth IRA contribution limits are $5,500 ($6,500 if age 50+). 

7) You wish to reduce future taxes on social security benefits

Qualified withdrawals from a Self Employed Roth 401k are excluded from taxable income when calculating taxes on Social Security benefits.
Currently half of Social Security benefits are taxable if AGI (adjusted gross income) plus one half of social security benefits exceeds $32,000 if married filing jointly or $25,000 if single. Note that the $32000 / $25000 threshold has never been adjusted since 1993. As a result, the value of tax savings via Roth accounts increases over time. Distributions from a Traditional 401k are included in AGI for determining Social Security benefit taxes, but distributions from a Self Employed Roth 401k are excluded, therefore saving taxes on Social Security benefits. Consult your tax advisor to verify your tax savings.

8) You want to avoid taking Required Mandatory Distributions (RMDs) at age 70 ½ and you like the idea of passing assets tax free to your heirs

You can roll over a Self Employed Roth 401k to a Roth IRA and avoid the legal requirement to take withdrawals at age 70½. This can save significant taxes and be useful for estate planning because the taxes saved will increase your estate and your heir's distributions will be tax free in the future as well.

However, remember the following important considerations:

  • Roth contributions are irrevocable. Once the money goes into a Roth 401k account, it can't be switched over to a regular 401k.
  • Also, Roth contributions are subject to federal state and payroll taxes in the year the Roth contribution is made (but are withdrawn tax free at retirement and grow tax free during working years).
  • You can roll over Self Employed Roth 401k contributions to a Roth IRA when retired or if terminated.
  • There is never a requirement to take a distribution from any Roth type retirement plan. This can help with tax planning to minimize taxes on Social Security benefits.

Learn more about the benefits of the Self Employed 401k

  • Self Employed 401k Contribution Limits - In 2013 contributions of up to a maximum of $51,000 or up to $56,500 if age 50+ can be made into a Self Employed 401k.
  • Self Employed 401k Calculator - Use the calculator to determine the annual retirement contribution you could make into a Self Employed 401k based on your income.
  • Self Employed 401k Loans - Tax free 401k loans are permitted with a Self Employed 401k plan. Loans up to 50% of the total value of the Self Employed 401k up to a maximum of $50,000 are permitted. IRS rules do not allow loans with IRAs, SEP IRAs, or Keogh (Money Purchase/Profit Sharing Plans).
  •  Self Employed 401k Rollover - You can rollover your 401k, 403b, 457 retirement plan from a previous employer. You can transfer a Rollover IRA, Traditional IRA, SEP IRA, Simple IRA and Keogh plan.
  • Self Employed 401k FAQs – Frequently asked questions, rules and information about the Self Employed 401k.